EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qblogfan]

Many Chinese H1B holders' wifes are studying Accounting in USA. There are some Chinese body shops too and they pay them minimum wage like 30k per year. There are many cooks also. Again because of the lanugage barrier, generally Chinese nationals stay in the bottom of the company for a long time. Usually promotions always go to Indian folks. The last thing is that many Chinese nationals study biology and chemistry and usually they don't get paid too much. Indian folks work in IT industry and it is very profitable.

Not for China. All CS / Electronics / Accounting professions only in the top 5 professions on pg 24. The professions in Appendix D seems to be an error. I believe they've erroneously pasted in S. Korea's data on the China page (they are identical).

One interesting observation was the average wages of the different nations. The UK, Canada and Pakistan all had a $88K to $91K average wage, while India's was at $83K. I think the $5K to $7K differential is completely due to the Indian consultant / body shop effect, a subset that doesn't affect the other nations. If we consider a 50% split between consultants and others, we're looking at a full $10K to $14K less of annual pay for the consultants than they would get otherwise. I would argue that the % of the consultants is actually smaller than 50%, which would make the pay differential even higher.

That brings me to the Chinese. Even though their top 5 professions are all technical, their average pay is only $74K. Is it the effect of the accountants in the list? Do they make that much less then the technology workers? Or are there Chinese consultants/body shops too that no one hears about that is skewing the figures?

[immi2910]

PERM DATA ANALYSIS

Assumptions:
- EB2IC with a PD up to March 2008 will get GC in FY 2012
- EB2ROW with a PD up to 2010 will get GC in FY 2012
- PERM applications from 2008 & 2009 have been completed by Jun 30, 2011 and the numbers are unlikely to increase
- 90% of PERM applications from 2010 have been completed by Jun 30, 2011
- 80% of all valid PERM applications have I-140 approved (need a better source to estimate this number)
- 70% of all PERM applications are for EB2 (need a better source to estimate this number)
- 2.05 visas used for every I-140 -from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-of-Statistics)


Data from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI & verified from http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm
- EB2C with PD 2008 = 4,154*0.75 = 3,116 assuming 25% (PD upto March 2008) get GC in FY 2012 quota
- EB2I with PD 2008 = 23,503*0.75 = 17,627

- EB2C with PD 2009 = 2,290
- EB2I with PD 2009 = 16,450

- EB2C with PD 2010 = 2,481/0.9 = 2,757 (assuming 90% have been approved until 6/30/11)
- EB2I with PD 2010 = 21,840/0.9 = 24,267

- EB2C Total for 2008 to 2010 = 8,163
- EB2I Total for 2008 to 2010 = 58,344
- EB2IC Total for 2008 to 2010 = 66,507

- Visa Numbers needed for 2008 to 2010 = 66,507 * 0.8 * 0.7 * 2.05 = 76,350

- EB2IC visas available = 5,600 / year
- SOFAD(includes PORTING) = 24,400 / year (this has been higher in recent years but as the economy improves it will go down)
- Total = 30,000 / Year

Number of years to move the date to 1/1/11 = 76,350 / 30,000 ~ 2.5 years from end of FY 2012 (9/30/12) = 3/31/2015

Since my PD is June 2011 (EB2I), I guess I will get GC in FY 2016 (i.e. between 10/1/15 & 9/30/16).

I would like to hear from the gurus to see if I am doing this correct.

Is there a place where I can I-140 approval rates for all PERM applications? Can I get a better ratio of EB2 to EB3 applications based on PERM data? Also, I would appreciate if you could comment whether the SOFAD (net of Porting) is in the right ball-park.

[imdeng]

When are we expecting the next I-485 Inventory? I believe the last one was 06/2011 - since its a quarterly report, it should have been out by now.

What are we expecting to see in the next inventory?

[Jonty Rhodes]

PERM DATA ANALYSIS

Assumptions:
- EB2IC with a PD up to March 2008 will get GC in FY 2012
- EB2ROW with a PD up to 2010 will get GC in FY 2012
- PERM applications from 2008 & 2009 have been completed by Jun 30, 2011 and the numbers are unlikely to increase
- 90% of PERM applications from 2010 have been completed by Jun 30, 2011
- 80% of all valid PERM applications have I-140 approved (need a better source to estimate this number)
- 70% of all PERM applications are for EB2 (need a better source to estimate this number)
- 2.05 visas used for every I-140 -from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-of-Statistics)


Data from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI & verified from http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm
- EB2C with PD 2008 = 4,154*0.75 = 3,116 assuming 25% (PD upto March 2008) get GC in FY 2012 quota
- EB2I with PD 2008 = 23,503*0.75 = 17,627

- EB2C with PD 2009 = 2,290
- EB2I with PD 2009 = 16,450

- EB2C with PD 2010 = 2,481/0.9 = 2,757 (assuming 90% have been approved until 6/30/11)
- EB2I with PD 2010 = 21,840/0.9 = 24,267

- EB2C Total for 2008 to 2010 = 8,163
- EB2I Total for 2008 to 2010 = 58,344
- EB2IC Total for 2008 to 2010 = 66,507

- Visa Numbers needed for 2008 to 2010 = 66,507 * 0.8 * 0.7 * 2.05 = 76,350

- EB2IC visas available = 5,600 / year
- SOFAD(includes PORTING) = 24,400 / year (this has been higher in recent years but as the economy improves it will go down)
- Total = 30,000 / Year

Number of years to move the date to 1/1/11 = 76,350 / 30,000 ~ 2.5 years from end of FY 2012 (9/30/12) = 3/31/2015

Since my PD is June 2011 (EB2I), I guess I will get GC in FY 2016 (i.e. between 10/1/15 & 9/30/16).

I would like to hear from the gurus to see if I am doing this correct.

Is there a place where I can I-140 approval rates for all PERM applications? Can I get a better ratio of EB2 to EB3 applications based on PERM data? Also, I would appreciate if you could comment whether the SOFAD (net of Porting) is in the right ball-park.

My friend, I am in the same boat as you. My PD is 05/20/2011 (EB2I) and have an approved LC and I-140. Your estimate seems to be correct in my opinion. We probably need to wait till 2016 if nothing happens. But if any immigration reform happens before that (which is possible), all our woes will end and we will get greened before 2016. On the other side, if the economy improves and EB2I and EB2C gets less SOFAD, we will be greened even later than 2016. I am not an expert obviously and perhaps Q, Teddy, Spec or Nishant can throw more light on this.

[imdeng]

Your analysis seems to be in the correct ball park. Unfortunately, the demand decline of late 2008 and 2009 seems to have reversed in 2010 with 2010 demand resembling the dense period of early 2007. If economy picks up, then passing through 2010 will be quite slow.

Do we know how 2011 is holding up as compared to 2010 demand?

Number of years to move the date to 1/1/11 = 76,350 / 30,000 ~ 2.5 years from end of FY 2012 (9/30/12) = 3/31/2015

Since my PD is June 2011 (EB2I), I guess I will get GC in FY 2016 (i.e. between 10/1/15 & 9/30/16).

[srimurthy]

As shared earlier in the blog there is a general 5 year wait for EB2 from PD date.. so a ball park can be if PD is 2010 - GC around 2015
If PD is 2011 - GC is around 2016.

Give or take a year here or there, so we can sleep for three years atleast and then come back and see where we are progressing. Hopefully with 2008 and 09 demang being less we may be able to file and get EAD earlier by an year.

I wouldn't count on immigration reform. What might help is the low demand from EB2C and perhaps EB2-SouthKorea getting retrogressed.

[immi2910]

Your analysis seems to be in the correct ball park. Unfortunately, the demand decline of late 2008 and 2009 seems to have reversed in 2010 with 2010 demand resembling the dense period of early 2007. If economy picks up, then passing through 2010 will be quite slow.

Do we know how 2011 is holding up as compared to 2010 demand?

On the surface 2011 is turning out to be similar to 2010 for EB2 IC but less demand for EB2 ROW so far.

I am looking at PD of 2010 approved in FY 2010 and comparing it with PD of 2011 approved in FY 2011 from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI

[Spectator]

Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?

I too think this a mistake for China.

In the main body of the document (page 23) the top professions for China are :

Computer Software Engineers, Applications
Statisticians
Accountants and Auditors
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
Electronics Engineers, Except Computer

Not for China. All CS / Electronics / Accounting professions only in the top 5 professions on pg 24. The professions in Appendix D seems to be an error. I believe they've erroneously pasted in S. Korea's data on the China page (they are identical).

One interesting observation was the average wages of the different nations. The UK, Canada and Pakistan all had a $88K to $91K average wage, while India's was at $83K. I think the $5K to $7K differential is completely due to the Indian consultant / body shop effect, a subset that doesn't affect the other nations. If we consider a 50% split between consultants and others, we're looking at a full $10K to $14K less of annual pay for the consultants than they would get otherwise. I would argue that the % of the consultants is actually smaller than 50%, which would make the pay differential even higher.

That brings me to the Chinese. Even though their top 5 professions are all technical, their average pay is only $74K. Is it the effect of the accountants in the list? Do they make that much less then the technology workers? Or are there Chinese consultants/body shops too that no one hears about that is skewing the figures?

qblogfan can probably say better, but a large number of Chinese in the scientific field follow the post-doc route after graduation, moving to Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, etc trying to get a tenure-track position.

The academic world is notorious for the low wages they pay. Just look at the PWD data and search for Assistant Professor! The lowest salaries can be 30k and the median seems be in the 50k range. This is with a PhD as the required educational attainment!

[imdeng]

If EB2 South Korea is retrogressed then they will not be able to consume more than 2800 EB2 visas every year. Currently they get more EB2 visas because they have not hit the 7% overall cap and are part of ROW. When they get out of ROW, they will not be able to consume any spillover since their PDs will be in 2010+.

Do we know how close South Korea is to getting retrogressed?

How would EB2 - South Korea retrogression help?

[Monica12]

You could say that, although I never got a chance to see Spamalot.

Earlier, I was enjoying a Gannet On A Stick! in the sunshine whilst Pining for the Fjords.

Now I will need a good kip after this prolonged squawk, before returning to my job at the Ministry Of Funny Walks. I need to make sure I avoid Doug & Dinsdale Piranha's sharp tongues on the way there. Their Irony, Hyperbole and Pathos are legendary.

Two points, ah, two flats, and a packet of gravel please.

I'd had a lovely supper, and all I said to my wife was 'That piece of halibut was good enough for Jehovah.'

Such blasphemy!

Well that's quite enough of that.

LOL ! Hilarious... Spec, your sense of humor is wonderful

[qesehmk]

It amazes me that people feel apologetic about not doing something for which they are not paid. Just kidding - Nishant

I am stuck at work in something today, and unable to view forum much.

[rahil1]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

[pch053]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

Congratulations! What is your PD and service center?

[Monica12]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

That is wonderful Rahil ! Congratulations !!!!

[rahil1]

07/02/2007, TSC its in my profile

[Spectator]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

Rahil,

A big Congrats from me as well!

[qesehmk]

Congrats Rahil. Enjoy the freedom!

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

[rahil1]

Monica, Pch and Spectator... thank you all... I will only believe it when I have the card in my hand...

[mysati]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

Rahil,
Congrats!

[Chilli19]

Petition to get H1 stamping done from within US. Go on and sign the petition to save the trouble of getting stuck with the stupid 221g form during Visa stamping... Please use the link below and create an account to sign the petition.
https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petition...untry/X016NylF

[qblogfan]

Yes, I agree with you completely.

Many Chinese immigrants stay in school for decades. Most of the post docs and professors are not making much money. My friends with Phd in biology and chemistry are making 30k per year. Also professors are not making much, around 50k-70k for assitant professors. It's a cultural thing. People back home admire scholars very much.

I too think this a mistake for China.

In the main body of the document (page 23) the top professions for China are :

Computer Software Engineers, Applications
Statisticians
Accountants and Auditors
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
Electronics Engineers, Except Computer

qblogfan can probably say better, but a large number of Chinese in the scientific field follow the post-doc route after graduation, moving to Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, etc trying to get a tenure-track position.

The academic world is notorious for the low wages they pay. Just look at the PWD data and search for Assistant Professor! The lowest salaries can be 30k and the median seems be in the 50k range. This is with a PhD as the required educational attainment!

[venkimakthal]

Rahil, 05/02/2007 or 07/02/2007?

[immi2910]

If EB2 South Korea is retrogressed then they will not be able to consume more than 2800 EB2 visas every year. Currently they get more EB2 visas because they have not hit the 7% overall cap and are part of ROW. When they get out of ROW, they will not be able to consume any spillover since their PDs will be in 2010+.

Do we know how close South Korea is to getting retrogressed?

I do not believe they can consume more than 2,800 visas even when they are part of ROW. I think they get more visas because of Fall Down from EB1, EB4 & EB5 categories, which I believe will continue even if they fall out of ROW.

All countries get their FD share and the FA (fall across) goes to the country with earliest PD. I don't think South Korea retrogression will have any impact on EB2IC dates.

[soggadu]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

rahil bhai...congratulations... rahil to sahil(shore) pe pahoonch(reached) gaye...

[venkimakthal]

When will be my turn, my PD is 04/08/2008?