EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[UkayDkay]

I still can't believe it, Congratulations to everyone who got current. Thank you all for the great work with the numbers and providing invaluable insight into this complex subject.

Couple of questions going on in my mind and requesting Guru's thoughts on it. I am not with the company thats sponsoring my GC & Nov. bulletin gave an opportunity to file I-485 with them. I understand its for future job, but at what point I am elegible to join them? Is it after filing I-485, or after receiving the EAD or after receiving the GC?

Thnx

[yesman]

Congrats to all the folks that got current and wishing the best for the ones on the fence. I have a PD of Apr 3, 2008. It's a little nerve wracking with all the predictions pointing towards at the best case scenario of the dates reaching Mar 2008 for FY 2012. I'm also facing the question of whether or not to take up an employment offer and I would NOT be inclined to move even if there is a somewhat reasonable chance that I can file a 485 before Oct 2012. Any suggestions/thoughts? Thanks!

[qesehmk]

As long as you have EAD or H1 you can join anytime. Or you can join after obtaining GC.

Couple of questions going on in my mind and requesting Guru's thoughts on it. I am not with the company thats sponsoring my GC & Nov. bulletin gave an opportunity to file I-485 with them. I understand its for future job, but at what point I am elegible to join them? Is it after filing I-485, or after receiving the EAD or after receiving the GC?

Thnx

Congrats to all the folks that got current and wishing the best for the ones on the fence. I have a PD of Apr 3, 2008. It's a little nerve wracking with all the predictions pointing towards at the best case scenario of the dates reaching Mar 2008 for FY 2012. I'm also facing the question of whether or not to take up an employment offer and I would NOT be inclined to move even if there is a somewhat reasonable chance that I can file a 485 before Oct 2012. Any suggestions/thoughts? Thanks!

Yours is a bit long shot to get GC this year. But its quite possible that you may be able to file 485 this year (i.e. 2012)

[leo4ever]

That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

Congrats buddy. I am very happy for you and everyone who is current. Hope i will happy too , some day.......

[kd2008]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...e_StateFix.pdf

[vchirakala]

Friends,

Can anyone tell me till when did the NVC accepted the fee ?? Sometime Sep 2008 if I'm not wrong ???

[08OCT2008]

Interesting to see the map of India in page 23 and 24

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...e_StateFix.pdf

[Spectator]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...e_StateFix.pdf

kd,

You beat me to it!

I am still reading it, but some interesting things in there. It also discusses the Backlog Reduction efforts. Here are some selected snippets:

In the last three quarters of FY 2010, computer-related occupations ranked among the most commonly requested occupations on PWDs issued. Computer Software Engineer, Computer Systems Analyst, Computer and Information Systems Manager, and Computer Programmer occupations constituted over 25 percent of the total PWDs issued.

Of these occupations, Computer Software Engineers, Applications, was the most frequently requested occupation , representing 13 percent of all PWDs issued. The remaining most frequently requested occupations each represented 2 percent or less of the total PWDs issued.

The employer with the highest number of applications filed during FY 2010 was Cognizant Technology Solutions US Corp. with more than 1,000 applications filed. Two school districts, Prince George’s County Public Schools and Dallas Independent School District, are also among the top 25 employers that filed applications in FY 2010. Forty percent of these 25 employers are technology or computer-related companies.

In FY 2010 India, South Korea, and China remained three countries of origin with the most certifications for foreign workers in the permanent labor certification program; however, Canada and Mexico moved above the Philippines and into the top five. Of the five leading countries, workers from India represent 41 percent of permanent labor certifications. Workers from South Korea follow with only 6.56 percent. The top five countries represent 73 percent of the total number of certifications in FY 2010.

The largest number of permanent labor certifications were for foreign workers originating from India, South Korea, China, Canada and Mexico.

The occupations of Computer Software Engineers, Computer Systems Analysts, Electronics Engineers and Electrical Engineers comprise the majority of job opportunities filled by foreign workers from India, China and Canada.

The most commen occupations for South Korea and Mexico include Chefs and Head Cooks, Tailors, Clergy, Elementary School Teachers and Farmworkers.

In addition to the existing 66,885 cases carried over from FY 2009 on October 1, 2009, employers filed 43,984 new PERM applications in FY 2010.

During FY 2010 a total of 82,685 PERM applications were adjudicated compared to 36,409 in FY 2009, more than doubling production.

As a result of the intensive backlog reduction effort, from January 2010 through September 2010, OFLC reduced the active caseload down from 63,412 to 29,589.

[Reader]

Deleted...

[sandeep11]

Thanks Q/Nishant/Monica and others. I will hope for the best and wish good luck to everyone out there waiting to file their 485.

The dates where they are today will not retrogress - at least not until 3 months from now. Rather they could progress 3-6 months.

A movement beyond 6 months is certainly likely to retrogress at some point of time.






More than likely your case is preadjudicated. Its quite likely you will receive GC in hand in 2-3 weeks - especially if you are working for a fortune 500.

[mysati]

kd,

You beat me to it!

I am still reading it, but some interesting things in there. It also discusses the Backlog Reduction efforts. Here are some selected snippets:

Personally, I can vouch for the backlog reduction in FY 2009 - 2010. Inspite of my employer being in the Fortune-100 list and generally having no problems/ queries with regard to the LCs filed by my Company, my LC was audited and took 2 years and 2 month to clear (finally got in March 2010). I heard from the lawyers that it was due to some fiasco during late 2007 and several apps filed during that period were under audit.

It did not affect me too much becoz' I am anywayz from a heavily retrogressed country and I was stuck in the first stage rather than the third. But I can imagine the anxiety and plight of others, that were in a simialr situation, from countries that are "Current".

[mysati]

kd,

You beat me to it!

I am still reading it, but some interesting things in there. It also discusses the Backlog Reduction efforts. Here are some selected snippets:

Another interesting snippet, confirming what all of you gurus have been mentioning frequently in this forum...


In FY 2010 employers filed 43,984 applications, a 28 percent decrease from FY 2009 in which 60,977 applications were filed. The decrease in application filings may reflect, in part, the impact of unemployment in the U.S. and the consequent ability of employers to find willing and qualified U.S. workers to fill their employment needs.

[qblogfan]

Several months ago we saw NVC notice with PD April 2008, that's the latest I have ever seen.

Friends,

Can anyone tell me till when did the NVC accepted the fee ?? Sometime Sep 2008 if I'm not wrong ???

[qblogfan]

The Nov. VB will bring the total demand of EB2 C&I for FY 2012 from about 10k to about 17k.

The future movement will be based on how much extra demand Mr.CO wants. In
my opinion he needs to bring 40k into his inventory if he wants to stay in
the safe side. Last year the total SOFAD is more than 30k. If he only brings
in 30k, it will be dangerous for FY 2012. He needs at least 10k buffer zone.

Gurus and folks, please post your opinions!


The data below is copied from Spectator. Credit to Spectator.

SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in
June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required
to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[soggadu]

Congrats Soggadu. This is making me feel so better (what made you say sep 2008). mine is Aug 2008.

I said sep 2008 because there were some ramblings about people getting NVC receipts who are in Sep 08... I still strongly believe this is all as per their plan (NVC receipts are a proof)...stay tuned and you will hit it....

[imdeng]

Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...e_StateFix.pdf

[soggadu]

Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?

very interesting observation...

[tnayar78]

Friends,

Can anyone tell me till when did the NVC accepted the fee ?? Sometime Sep 2008 if I'm not wrong ???

this was the last one i found on IV June08 from a post by user named vick looks like legit, not sure if there are any after that.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2660190-post2539.html
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2671540-post2590.html

[imdeng]

So for 40K inventory with 5K porting, we are looking at June/July 2008 - and this level needs to be hit by Jan 2012.

If we manage to clear all that inventory in 2012 spillover season - then to build another 30K inventory minus 5K spillover, the PD will need to go forward by 12 months (assuming 2K per month) - so we are looking at a PD of June/July 2009 by Jan 2013. However, later 2008 and 2009 are very weak in demand numbers - so assuming only 1.5K per month demand in 2009, we will reach Aug 2009. Now, since my PD is Aug 2009 I will consider this scenario completely realistic (ah... it happens to be quite optimistic but whateves) and declare that my PD will be current in Jan 2013. I will now plan rest of my life around it.

Questions for Spec and other gurus (and BTW - Thank You Spec for your awesome work. USCIS should hire you as a consultant and give you gobs of money to help them make their processes more efficient):
1. There was an argument that since so many people fast tracked their applications to get in the 07/07 rush, we should see lower than average demand for months following 07/07. This is not coming out in the data currently, right?
2. I think the abandonment rate of I-140 for people with PD after 07/07 might be higher since they did not have the safety cover of EAD/AP. That might bring the demand levels down a bit, right?

The Nov. VB will bring the total demand of EB2 C&I for FY 2012 from about 10k to about 17k.

The future movement will be based on how much extra demand Mr.CO wants. In
my opinion he needs to bring 40k into his inventory if he wants to stay in
the safe side. Last year the total SOFAD is more than 30k. If he only brings
in 30k, it will be dangerous for FY 2012. He needs at least 10k buffer zone.

Gurus and folks, please post your opinions!


The data below is copied from Spectator. Credit to Spectator.

SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in
June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required
to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[qesehmk]

It is a function of enhanced opportunities in China and Korea & language barriers in those countries that not many knowledge workers can / are willing to come to US.

Even from India you see more people from particular states coming to US than others. I think talent is everywhere and when the local economy doesn't offer that talent many avenues. .... talent seeks to spread out to other regions. This true within a country or across countries.

Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?

[druvraj]

Teddy and All who are current,

Congrats on you becoming current. Hope you get your GC as well.

Q, Teddy ,Spec and other gurus has there been any change in your predictions after the release of this bulletin?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?

Not for China. All CS / Electronics / Accounting professions only in the top 5 professions on pg 24. The professions in Appendix D seems to be an error. I believe they've erroneously pasted in S. Korea's data on the China page (they are identical).

One interesting observation was the average wages of the different nations. The UK, Canada and Pakistan all had a $88K to $91K average wage, while India's was at $83K. I think the $5K to $7K differential is completely due to the Indian consultant / body shop effect, a subset that doesn't affect the other nations. If we consider a 50% split between consultants and others, we're looking at a full $10K to $14K less of annual pay for the consultants than they would get otherwise. I would argue that the % of the consultants is actually smaller than 50%, which would make the pay differential even higher.

That brings me to the Chinese. Even though their top 5 professions are all technical, their average pay is only $74K. Is it the effect of the accountants in the list? Do they make that much less then the technology workers? Or are there Chinese consultants/body shops too that no one hears about that is skewing the figures?

[abhinata]

The dates where they are today will not retrogress - at least not until 3 months from now. Rather they could progress 3-6 months.

A movement beyond 6 months is certainly likely to retrogress at some point of time.

More than likely your case is preadjudicated. Its quite likely you will receive GC in hand in 2-3 weeks - especially if you are working for a fortune 500.

Dear Q, How can you be so certain that he will get GC in 2-3 weeks time. Do you think USCIS has enough visa available for all those who become current with PD of Apr-Jul07 and have their case Pre-adjucated as they filed in 07/07.

I am in similar situation as my PD is Jul13 2007 EB2-I, filed I485 in July07 and have approved I-140. I don't know even though I am current, I will be able to get GC in 1 months time. I believe we don't have enough visas to cover everyone who got current.:confused

Any thoughts would definitely help me prioritize my travel and job plans. Appreciate your response.

Thanks

Abhijeet

[grnwtg]

Hi qblogfan,
I thought after yesterday's demand data, we are not sure what was exact number of inventory USCIS has, 8k is reduced to 3k. This 5k has lot of importance, like you i was also telling that they need atleast 35k applications for next year, so this 5k will be crucial if we are going to March'2008 or August'2008.
Apart from as Guru's mentioned whole data we have might changed from the demand data we get after 2 more months.
One more good news is that bulletin did not mention anything about porting data (althought reading their lines might be waste of time)

The Nov. VB will bring the total demand of EB2 C&I for FY 2012 from about 10k to about 17k.

The future movement will be based on how much extra demand Mr.CO wants. In
my opinion he needs to bring 40k into his inventory if he wants to stay in
the safe side. Last year the total SOFAD is more than 30k. If he only brings
in 30k, it will be dangerous for FY 2012. He needs at least 10k buffer zone.

Gurus and folks, please post your opinions!


The data below is copied from Spectator. Credit to Spectator.

SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in
June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required
to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[qblogfan]

Yes, the language barrier is definitely a factor. I have been in US for almost ten years, but I don't feel my English is good enough. When I was in my Chinese college, most of my classmates spoke broken English. I started my first English class at age 14, but it was only some basic training, and I never used English before I came to US. I never took any engineering or science class in English when I was there. Indian engineers and scientists speak fluent English and are more connected to the western society. It's a huge advantage in the professional fields.

The second factor is that the eastern asian culture always encourage people to stay home and close to parents. There is a Chinese old saying from 3000 years ago: if your parents are still alive, please don't travel too far. The eastern asian culture always emphasizes people should stay with parents as much as they can and listen to the older people. In movies you can see Korean and Chinese young couples always live with their parents in the same house. It's a good thing, also a bad thing. Because of these culture traditions, people don't explore too much and lagged much behind the western people who explore new things.

The last factor is that it's very difficult for a Chinese national to get a visa to USA. When I came to USA ten years ago, 60% of my classmates got visa denials. All of them had scholarships, but the US embassy just denied their applications for no reason. For the folks in high tech area, it was impossible to get a visa. If they grant you a visa, it is only 3 months valid and 2 entries. It's a lot of hassle to get a visa. Many people are frustrated and gave up their plans to come here.

It is a function of enhanced opportunities in China and Korea & language barriers in those countries that not many knowledge workers can / are willing to come to US.

Even from India you see more people from particular states coming to US than others. I think talent is everywhere and when the local economy doesn't offer that talent many avenues. .... talent seeks to spread out to other regions. This true within a country or across countries.