EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

Are there any macro-economic reasons why EB2ROW demand would be low?

For all practical reasons, the economy seems to be improving. Also, the economy in Europe seems to be getting worse, which would suggest that people there are probably looking for safe havens (want to come to the US).

The 10k EB2I allocation suggests that there are other factors at play. I don't what they are (perhaps anticipation that HR3012 will pass), but USCIS can't use VISA numbers in anticipation...can they?

The only other explanation is that demand destruction for EB2 and EB1 is staggering and beyond anything anyone had ever anticipated. (This ofcourse still does not explain the 10k allocation because one would think this demand destruction applies to EB2I as well).

Just my thoughts. I am really a novice at these calculations.

I don't know if this helps in your thinking.

PERM Certifications for Non-IC Countries have shown a steady decline over recent years, which isn't really the case for IC.

Non-IC
------------------ % of Total
CY2006 - 55.7k --- 63.0%
CY2007 - 44.4k --- 60.5%
CY2008 - 37.5k --- 57.5%
CY2009 - 22.9k --- 55.0%
CY2010 - 18.5k --- 42.9%

CY2011 is not complete. For Certifications in FY2011 (with PDs of Jan-June 2011), the figures are

CY2011 (part) - 9.8k - 36.5%

Although not complete, 2011 PDs for non-IC hint at a slight increase over the 2010 figures.

Forecasting actual approval rates is complicated by the fact that there appear to be backlogs of EB2-Non IC cases.

[funnysummer2005]

Hi Guys- many places in the forms ask for:
1) I-94 number- this is the number that has already been printed on the i-94 card right? basically the preprinted number on the i-94 card that you picked up at the airport? and htis number changes everytime you have entered the country right? so we need to use the number on the most recent i-94 card received while entering?

2) A number or alien registration number- firstly is A number and Alien registration number the same? and where can i find this number? On my old EAD cards that i received for OPT, i see something called INS A number- is that the same? what should i enter here please.

Quick response will be greatly appreciated. I am trying to send these forms out asap.

Thanks,

[Spectator]

There are some interesting figures in this Department of Labor Office of Foreign Labor Certification Stakeholders Meeting—January 6, 2012 document

For the first quarter of the fiscal year (which began Oct. 1, 2011), DOL has adjudicated approximately 13,000 labor certification applications (ETA-9089s), certifying 9400, auditing 2400, and denying 600.

Currently DOL has pending 21,000 ETA-9089s:

50% in analyst review (filed October 2011 and prior)

33% in audit (filed April 2011 and prior)

10% on appeal/reconsideration (filed April 2010 and prior)

4% in supervised recruitment

3% undergoing “employer existence review”

The government error reconsideration queue is “current.”

The denial rate for audited cases is approximately 55—60%, slightly higher than for FY 2010.

The numbers adjudicated in Q1 are quite low - possibly this is due to the continuing long processing times for PWD (also discussed in the document)

Prevailing wage determination for the PERM program are expected to be “current” (issued within 60 days) by the third week in January 2012.

Prevailing Wages

1. PW Redeterminations: We understand that the current processing time for a PW is about 60 days. Members have reported that it has taken up to six months to receive a decision on a PW redetermination request. At what point can members inquire about redetermination requests? What is the procedure for making such an inquiry?

During the last 45 days, DOL has undertaken a sustained effort to reduce the queue, and as noted in opening comments, DOL expects PWD processing for all programs to be “current” soon. “Historically, about 2% to 4% of applications fall outside of standard processing time. When this happens, the filer should e-mail the Help Desk.”

[vizcard]

Hi Guys- many places in the forms ask for:
1) I-94 number- this is the number that has already been printed on the i-94 card right? basically the preprinted number on the i-94 card that you picked up at the airport? and htis number changes everytime you have entered the country right? so we need to use the number on the most recent i-94 card received while entering?

2) A number or alien registration number- firstly is A number and Alien registration number the same? and where can i find this number? On my old EAD cards that i received for OPT, i see something called INS A number- is that the same? what should i enter here please.

Quick response will be greatly appreciated. I am trying to send these forms out asap.

Thanks,

1. Yes. The most recent I94 and status is what's needed.
2. They are the same and you get it with an approved I140. Check with your lawyers.

[gkjppp]

There are some interesting figures in this Department of Labor Office of Foreign Labor Certification Stakeholders Meeting—January 6, 2012 document



The numbers adjudicated in Q1 are quite low - possibly this is due to the continuing long processing times for PWD (also discussed in the document)

33% audit is huge %. DOL tighten perm processing.

[Rkmarthy]

It is an issue in the sense that it should either urs or RD. else when processing time comes and here date is not current there could be issues.
I have the same problem, i talked to my lawyer, he didnt say "nah its ok" they are going to talk to uscis.
I suggest you talk to ur lawyer.

All, Below is lawyer's reply. It doesn't seem like an issue. Good luck all.

They changed that process – under the law her PD and your PD are same as she is your dependent on the 485 that we had filed but few months back they have stopping putting the primary applicants PD on the beneficiary’s receipt notice.

[Spectator]

33% audit is huge %. DOL tighten perm processing.

gkjppp,

Remember it is saying that this is the % of Pending cases.

Currently DOL has pending 21,000 ETA-9089s:

50% in analyst review (filed October 2011 and prior) = 10,500

33% in audit (filed April 2011 and prior) = 6,930

10% on appeal/reconsideration (filed April 2010 and prior) = 2,100

4% in supervised recruitment = 840

3% undergoing “employer existence review” = 630

Total = 21,000

That is not the same as saying 33% of ALL cases undergo audit, since others were Certified and are no longer pending. Also, the processing times for different categories in the pending numbers are very different, so the proportions are not equal.

[gkjppp]

gkjppp,

Remember it is saying that this is the % of Pending cases.

Currently DOL has pending 21,000 ETA-9089s:

50% in analyst review (filed October 2011 and prior) = 10,500

33% in audit (filed April 2011 and prior) = 6,930

10% on appeal/reconsideration (filed April 2010 and prior) = 2,100

4% in supervised recruitment = 840

3% undergoing “employer existence review” = 630

Total = 21,000

That is not the same as saying 33% of ALL cases undergo audit, since others were Certified and are no longer pending. Also, the processing times for different categories in the pending numbers are very different, so the proportions are not equal.

Spec, Thanks for the clarification. 33% of pending PERMS are in audit, make sense.Thanks once again for detailed explanation.

[Pdmar08]

All, Below is lawyer's reply. It doesn't seem like an issue. Good luck all.

They changed that process – under the law her PD and your PD are same as she is your dependent on the 485 that we had filed but few months back they have stopping putting the primary applicants PD on the beneficiary’s receipt notice.

RK,
thanks for the prompt update. Its always good to know the reason for things.

[dec2007]

RK,
thanks for the prompt update. Its always good to know the reason for things.

pdmar08,

we both have same RD, ND, and RD. My pd is dec 31, 07.

Pls let us know when you get your FP notice,it will give me a good idea of when to expect mine. I will update too if I get.

thanks

[03May07]

.....................l. Some of the real old-timers like imechanix, leo07, 03may2007 are waiting from the Oct batch. Looks like for our good friend Sogaddu will see his 485 approval before EAD / AP. Good luck to all.

Big T,
I guess you meant me ..3M...
I got RFE on 12 Jan...exactly 90 days after I got my receipt...63 days to get my EAD AP
Still waiting for physical RFE letter.
Lots of unforseen things happened in professional life as soon as news of being current was out, so kinda calmed down....went back to being lurker of this thread.
I wonder what's soggadu and Monica are upto these days..

[nishant2200]

Dude that's kind of good, ur file is being worked on. Respond to RFE promptly.

Read

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/A...-0-0-1067.html

Sections on RFE n order of processing. Basically as soon as response to RFE, ur file shud be adjudicated.

Big T,
I guess you meant me ..3M...
I got RFE on 12 Jan...exactly 90 days after I got my receipt...63 days to get my EAD AP
Still waiting for physical RFE letter.
Lots of unforseen things happened in professional life as soon as news of being current was out, so kinda calmed down....went back to being lurker of this thread.
I wonder what's soggadu and Monica are upto these days..

[Pdmar08]

pdmar08,

we both have same RD, ND, and RD. My pd is dec 31, 07.

Pls let us know when you get your FP notice,it will give me a good idea of when to expect mine. I will update too if I get.

thanks

Sure I will let u know. I am seeing its taking about a month. Minimum.

[funnysummer2005]

Hey guys..sorry for posting on this forum. Moderators pls repsot to appropriate forum after it is answered. This gets most viewing, so answers will help me greatly.

When filing AOS forms:

1) In the EAD form- Questions 16- what have people put under Eligibility under 8 CFR 274a.12--- I have put (C) (9). i know there are different options for different people, but for most of us who are filing AOS based after being on H-1B, is this the corect one?

2) I have heard some conflicting view on A nummber. Yesterday on the forum someone said A# comes with approved I-20 and i see a number startign with A on my 1-797 notice, someone elseo n the forum mentioned that its the number of your previous EAD form which i had while on OPT. I have an INS A number on that which is different from the A number on I-797 notice. And now my lawyer said that A# will be assigned when AOS application will be admitted for processing and that I don't have one right now. Pls advice.

3) Who is the check payable to? USCIS or someone else?


Answers will be greatly appreciated. I don't want an RFE for a minor error.

Thanks,

[zenmaster]

Hey guys..sorry for posting on this forum. Moderators pls repsot to appropriate forum after it is answered. This gets most viewing, so answers will help me greatly.

When filing AOS forms:

1) In the EAD form- Questions 16- what have people put under Eligibility under 8 CFR 274a.12--- I have put (C) (9). i know there are different options for different people, but for most of us who are filing AOS based after being on H-1B, is this the corect one?

2) I have heard some conflicting view on A nummber. Yesterday on the forum someone said A# comes with approved I-20 and i see a number startign with A on my 1-797 notice, someone elseo n the forum mentioned that its the number of your previous EAD form which i had while on OPT. I have an INS A number on that which is different from the A number on I-797 notice. And now my lawyer said that A# will be assigned when AOS application will be admitted for processing and that I don't have one right now. Pls advice.

3) Who is the check payable to? USCIS or someone else?


Answers will be greatly appreciated. I don't want an RFE for a minor error.

Thanks,

1) Yes C9 is correct for H1b to AOS applicants.

2) A# is the USCIS way of tracking you in their system.
Each person is assigned an A# based on the application classification i.e Immigrant OR Non Immigrant/Dual Intent.
Therefore, the A# on you F1 OPT card and the A# for your 485 application will be different.
The A# number that you should be using for your 485 application/EAD-AP should be mentioned in the I-140 approval notice.

If you are confused about A#, it is OK to leave it blank.

BTW, this comes from my lawyer

3) US Depeartment of Homeland Security
Hope this helps.

[TeddyKoochu]

10K+ is a reasonable estimate for EB2I visas issued in Q1FY2012. Considering that the approvals are continuing in Q2FY2012 following QSP, the important question is - where is CO getting these visa numbers from??

Assuming a linear allocation, Q1 had 140/4 = 35K visas to give. 10K to EB2I would mean 30% of total EB visas to EB2I. This mark has never been reached before - its unprecedented and frankly unsustainable considering that EB1 has picked up pace recently. CO has discretion in setting up PD; however, actually issuing visas is a much serious deal and there is very little discretion involved. Perhaps a combination of EB2ROW demand decline and EB2IC demand destruction is the story here.

If we look at October there were probably 5-6K approvals in this month for the Apr 15 to the Jul 15th preadjudicated filers. Spillover could not be possibly granted in Oct itself as it may take time to generate. So my guess is CO sanctioned the use of the EB2 I/C annual cap in Oct itself. The rest of the movement can be attributed to spillover. Note that EB2 I/C approvals are coming by but still EB1 and EB2 ROW where Nov filers are being consistently approved.

[Kanmani]

Friends I have a question too

How about photographs of applicants ? with or without glasses ?
can anyone post the link ? The guy who is taking pictures says without glasses , got confused and cancelled .

[TeddyKoochu]

Big T,
I guess you meant me ..3M...
I got RFE on 12 Jan...exactly 90 days after I got my receipt...63 days to get my EAD AP
Still waiting for physical RFE letter.
Lots of unforseen things happened in professional life as soon as news of being current was out, so kinda calmed down....went back to being lurker of this thread.
I wonder what's soggadu and Monica are upto these days..

Yes I was referring to you. As Nishant said getting a RFE is not all that bad it means that they looked at your case and sent you a consolidated list of missing information. Approval should come by fast as soon as you can respond back. Good luck.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I have a question too

How about photographs of applicants ? with or without glasses ?
can anyone post the link ? The guy who is taking pictures says without glasses , got confused and cancelled .

Kanmani, without glasses, I had to get mine done again. Nishant had posted a USCIS link sometime back which does not bar glasses but I believe the issue is about the glare. Even in the FP appointment they insist that you take the glasses off.

[TeddyKoochu]

1) Yes C9 is correct for H1b to AOS applicants.

2) A# is the USCIS way of tracking you in their system.
Each person is assigned an A# based on the application classification i.e Immigrant OR Non Immigrant/Dual Intent.
Therefore, the A# on you F1 OPT card and the A# for your 485 application will be different.
The A# number that you should be using for your 485 application/EAD-AP should be mentioned in the I-140 approval notice.

If you are confused about A#, it is OK to leave it blank.

BTW, this comes from my lawyer

3) US Depeartment of Homeland Security
Hope this helps.

The cheques should be payable to US Department of Homeland Security, USCIS is under DHS.

[nishant2200]

Kanmani, without glasses, I had to get mine done again. Nishant had posted a USCIS link sometime back which does not bar glasses but I believe the issue is about the glare. Even in the FP appointment they insist that you take the glasses off.

Teddy is completely correct. DHS n DOS need to make this clear in their photo specifications.

Yes, no glasses.

[suninphx]

Teddy is completely correct. DHS n DOS need to make this clear in their photo specifications.

Yes, no glasses.

Not to add any confusion but my attorney seems to be just fine WITH glasses.

[mysati]

mysati,

I will try to answer some of these. Not sure I know everything.

#0 - H1B doesn't become instantly invalid. USCIS says that one needs to leave country immediately but in reality is quite lenient if the person finds another job.
#1 - If one had EAD and 485 is pending - then the person can legally stay until 485 is adjudicated. If employer withdraws 140 then 485 will of course be rejected. So post 180 days from 485 filing you are safe. But you MUST have a job in same or similar category the day 485 is adjudicated.
#2 Yes with EAD you can search another job/
#3 My understanding EAD is can be renewed without any proof of employment. But I may be wrong.
#4. No there shouldn't be any problems for naturalization if there was a layoff and you used EAD to gain another job in same / similar classification and then received you GC.
#5. Not travelling outside country would be a good idea. Staying on good terms with former employer would be good idea. As soon as you get a job use EAD and if possible transfer H1 and invoke AC21.

Hope this helps.

Thanks Q!
Thought I'd post them, as several of us are getting EAD now and are not sure how long it will take to get the GC.

Suninphx,
Feel free to move them to an appropriate thread.

[tackle]

Not to add any confusion but my attorney seems to be just fine WITH glasses.

From here:

If you normally wear glasses (without tinted lenses), a hearing device, or similar articles, they may be worn in your photo.
Dark glasses or glasses with tinted lenses are not acceptable.
Glare on glasses is not acceptable in your photo. Glare can be avoided with a slight downward tilt of the glasses or by removing the glasses or by turning off the camera flash.

I know that the link I pointed to is actually photo requirements for a visa. However, I'd think the same guidelines can be applied to the photos taken for GC process as well.

[sandeep11]

Better with out glasses. For FP as Teddy mentioned they insist without glasses. If they are prescription glasses and you have them all the while then USCIS is ok with the glasses. But if there is any glare or any other issue they reject it promptly. So IMO it is better with out glasses. I did the same.

Not to add any confusion but my attorney seems to be just fine WITH glasses.