EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[leo07]

I might sound like Aristotle, for what I have gone through in life...but
My 2 cents: Don't speculate...get the first thing done first. What ever comes your way first...GC/Marriage.

Hi,

My priority date is 03-25-2009 and I am current in latest VB. The biggest question is "Shall I apply or not", coz I am planning to get married in Dec 2012 to a girl who is in India right now. I am in biggest confusion state whether I shall wait till Dec 2012 and apply for GC or apply now and add my fiance information later? Do you guys think will I be getting my GC by end of 2012 if I apply now? plz comment.

Thanks!

[GhostWriter]

Do we need to submit the original affidavit or a copy of the affidavit. My lawyer asked for copies in general, but i am confused about the affidavit. The only reason to create the affidavit was for I-485. What is everyone submitting.

Per my attorney value of stamp paper doesn't matter any value is okay. Just get it notarized (Attested).

[leo07]

IMHO, CP for 2009 filers is a gamble. Again, that's my opinion. If I were you, I'd rather have the EAD/AP in my pocket than wait for CP.

Gurus,

My PD is 06/2011 so this may not apply for me anytime soon but the recent movement has been unprecedented and I had a question related to CP.

I know it is easy to go from CP to AOS without any additional documentation. Therefore, I had applied as CP when I filed I-140. Moreover, it was general consensus that you generally get Fee Notice and FP notice even before your dates are current (i.e. 6 months before your dates are current). So presumably as soon as the dates got current you would be called for an interview and would get GC faster than AOS.

I do not think any Fee Notices were sent for people in 2nd half of 2009 since the recent movement caught everyone by surprise (including State Dept). What is option for people on CP? Should they continue with CP knowing fully well the dates might retrogress and they may never get an interview? Or should they go for AoS? If the PD is current when is a visa number allocated? Is it when the Fee Notice is sent or at some later stage?

[leo07]

Can you please ask the question again with context? I'm sorry, I could not understand what this is for.

Do we need to submit the original affidavit or a copy of the affidavit. My lawyer asked for copies in general, but i am confused about the affidavit. The only reason to create the affidavit was for I-485. What is everyone submitting.

[medatom]

I am extremely sorry for hijacking the thread. But this one keeps me awake at night.
I was born at home so no birth certificates. My mother always used two different names for herself. So when i applied for passport i have name A listed as mother's name. However, i asked my father to get a birth certificate for me, when inquired, the municipal will only issue a birth certificate with name B as it's listed in the ration card right now.
What should i do?. Get a birth certificate with name B listed as mother and get an affidavit from my parents as well.
Thanks a lot.

[leo07]

Dude, there's nothing sorry to feel here . He is getting married + getting GC and you are feeling sorry for him?? can you elaborate your thoughts? LOL

Play it safe, apply for GC and get married when the time comes. Don't try to interlink these two positive events and over-stress yourselves. There are million ways to solve the GC issue.

Sorry to hear about ur situation..I am also in similar situation,,but little better,,
I am getting married in feb. and my PD is 6 months after urs..(sept. 09)
for me,,i can't move my wedding since it is only in little over a month,and i don't think i m gonna get approval in 2 months,,

if u really want to apply right now - 1 suggestion for u would be - if you can move ur wedding date,,may be summer or before if possible.

december 2012 is too far and hard to guess what will happen by thn.. there are few uncertainties like 3012 can change the whole game or any administrative fix can change plus demand destruction..etc..
so i would say if u can move ur wedding dates early,,it would be little safe 4 u.. think about it for few days talk to ur future wife/family,,etc..
also talk 2 u lawyer..

[gkjppp]

gkjppp, this is my current take on this, and obviously things change day to day if new data reports come in.

- If there is no demand data released next month, or the demand data continues showing very low numbers (in the hundreds, not thousands), then we can again see a further move. The length of the move is again depending on the discretion of the agencies. By that time, they would have obtained filings all PWMB of 2007 as they filed in October, November, and new filings of Nov, Dec and January.
- I personally feel CO is just taking advantage of technicality of showing low demand data and advancing dates. So even if the above filings are a lot, unless they have turned into demand which he is unable to satisfy using QSP, he is going to move dates.
- Sooner or later, USCIS processing will catch up, and the filings will start translating into chunks of demand which CO might not be comfortable satisfying through QSP. If that demand accumulation is in the hundreds, he will stop dates, and once that demand comes into the thousands, he will retrogress.
- I believe that the visa numerical control program is automatic, but CO can override configuration. For example, in normal operation, if a date is current, and a visa number is requested, it will be granted and it won't appear in demand data. But suppose after the 20th of the month, CO sees some data points, and puts in a switch to block assigning visa numbers for EB2I, then the visa number request would be directed to pending file, and in next month, it would show up in demand data.
- I think actual GC issuance will clear 2007 assuming demand destruction is reality, around 22-24k SO, and Q1 2008 somewhere dates will stick at end of FY.

Nishant, thanks for quick reply.Can you elobarate on your last lines

I think actual GC issuance will clear 2007 assuming demand destruction is reality, around 22-24k SO, and Q1 2008 somewhere dates will stick at end of FY.

if VB retrogress and stalls at Mar/Jun 2008, when we are expecting next movement, which moves into 2010?as we are aware, CO already build pipeline for next 2 years will it be somewhere in 2013 Jan or 2013 Oct or 2014?

[jackbrown_890]

Honestly, I don't think the dates will retrogress in March. Think about it. After the incredible speed the last 2 months, they would require at least 2 months to *digest*. I believe retrogression would start realistically in May/June. At worst, the dates would stall.

If I were you, I would keep everything ready and do whatever there needs to be done to sending a single application and adding your wife later (you would have to wait to get your FP done and most likely postpone the marriage date in the worst case), but *not* send the application until the March dates are out.

Good luck, and congratulations on your marriage! It's going to start on the right foot...nothing is better than for the spouse to have her EAD on day 1 in the US.

EDIT: BTW, I need to correct myself. You won't be able to add your wife later unless the dates were current, so if they are retrogressed, only you will get your EAD and she has to wait until the dates are current. I think that's what my lawyer told me, I could be wrong...so check with Gurus and your lawyer.

I think I am going to take the risk of not sending my application in February, in hope that dates will not retrogress even in April VB. I can't change my wedding plans for this now. (everything has been planned/booked, invitations have been sent out..etc...) (I ll be married and back by March first week) If I apply in Feb and if dates do retrogress in March VB and I can't apply for my (future) wife's AOS, i can't use my EAD because doing so will put her H4 out of status. So if only I can apply for AOS, and she can't,, we will not be able to take advantage of EAD/AP.
Correct me if i am wrong.

[ChampU]

Any ballpark estimate about the demand generated by the movement of dates to Jan 2010?

[gkjppp]

http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/news/2012/20120106.shtml

these are good attorneys, interesting to read their post on feb bulletin. their website contains useful information.

"From a practical perspective, persons in the India and China EB2 categories who will become "current" in February 2012 should do their best to ensure that they file their Adjustment of Status (AOS) applications during that month. Until the March Bulletin is issued we will not know if there will be retrogression or continued advancement of dates. Please note that there is no advantage to filing an AOS application on the first date of the month. There is no need to rush to file as early as possible in February, just ensure that the AOS application is received by USCIS in February. "

hope most of them file on time, ie before feb 29th.I think retro will not be in March, they may halt VB in Mar and may goes to retrogression in or after apr.

[qblogfan]

I would suggest you send in your application as early as possible.

It's unlikely you will get your GC before December 2012. There are around 30k people in front of you and I doubt you can get GC before 12/2012.

There are too many risk factors if you delay your 485 submission. For example, what if your company lay you off before your marriage? No job means game over. No income, no H1B, no GC, wife can't come here, etc.........

Always grab the opportunity first, then consider next steps..........

Hi,

My priority date is 03-25-2009 and I am current in latest VB. The biggest question is "Shall I apply or not", coz I am planning to get married in Dec 2012 to a girl who is in India right now. I am in biggest confusion state whether I shall wait till Dec 2012 and apply for GC or apply now and add my fiance information later? Do you guys think will I be getting my GC by end of 2012 if I apply now? plz comment.

Thanks!

[funnysummer2005]

Hi Guys- had a couple of questions. Hope someone can answer these pls. I tried to look on the blog but didn't find an answer.

1) For filing AOS form, i see that they want a copy of the I-20. I have been out of school for over 9 years and no way i have a copy of the I-20 that I had when i was in college. Anyone have similar issue? what is the way around this? pls advise.

2) I-94 form- we only need to send a copy of the most recent I-94 card right? again, we as get a new i-94 card everytime we enter the country and give it back everytime we leave, i didn't make copies of every i-94 i have ever got. Any thoughts?

Thanks a lot.

[jackbrown_890]

I would suggest you send in your application as early as possible.

It's unlikely you will get your GC before December 2012. There are around 30k people in front of you and I doubt you can get GC before 12/2012.

There are too many risk factors if you delay your 485 submission. For example, what if your company lay you off before your marriage? No job means game over. No income, no H1B, no GC, wife can't come here, etc.........

Always grab the opportunity first, then consider next steps..........

qblogfan,
You are right - for him it makes sense to send application now,, since December is too far. any thing can happen. but still hard choice, because he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...
and if he wants his wife to be here after marriage, he will be stuck on H1 like me till dates become current for him again since his wife will be on H4 until he can file for her AOS. so no EAD benefits

again correct me if i wrong..."i actually want someone to prove me wrong on not being able use EAD because i am in the same situation" lol

[vishnu]

Just because you get an EAD/AP does not meet you lose your H status..you can continue on H status and wife can come on H4...

[sdesh005]

Everyone,

I met with my lawyer yesterday again. Sorry, this time, didn't get much time to talk about the EB2 movement in depth. I wanted to find out if he knows anything about the future movements of EB2.

- He made no comment on HR 3012 and reiterated the movement is completely independent of that.
- He reiterated that the movement is intended to dish out as many EADs as possible as well as revenue generation for the USCIS in these *tough times*. He did not add any value to my questions about demand destruction, and CO's note about filings being too low.

- He said he "thinks" the movement will "slow down but continue" in March and come to a halt in April. He did not say whether there will be any retrogression, but he told me he will try to "actively seek this information out" because apparently there are some people in our company posted oversees who cannot come and apply for AoS right away.

I have to meet him before I pack my bags and leave one more time, and I believe I will have something more to add at that point. For now, this is what I have.

Good luck to 2010 filers.

Good to know he thinks the dates will move and/or not retrogress for another month. I hope he can give you some more valuable insights into this in the coming days after he shoots some hoops with CO and talk about VB and date movement!

[EB2-03252009]

Thanks for the replies.

I wont be using EAD or AP as I have H1B visa stamping till Sept 2013. and I dont want to use EAD till I get my GC.

qblogfan,
You are right - for him it makes sense to send application now,, since December is too far. any thing can happen. but still hard choice, because he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...
and if he wants his wife to be here after marriage, he will be stuck on H1 like me till dates become current for him again since his wife will be on H4 until he can file for her AOS. so no EAD benefits

again correct me if i wrong..."i actually want someone to prove me wrong on not being able use EAD because i am in the same situation" lol

[leo07]

"... he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...."

This is NOT entirely true. You SHOULD not leave your primary H1B job for EAD. The case that you mentioned will arise only if the applicant leaves his H1B job for a EAD job.

At this juncture, I'd like to reiterate to everyone that LEAVING your H1b for EAD is not a smart move. Don't make that decision in haste before getting your GC in hand. You can use your EAD for a second job, if you will.

qblogfan,
You are right - for him it makes sense to send application now,, since December is too far. any thing can happen. but still hard choice, because he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...
and if he wants his wife to be here after marriage, he will be stuck on H1 like me till dates become current for him again since his wife will be on H4 until he can file for her AOS. so no EAD benefits

again correct me if i wrong..."i actually want someone to prove me wrong on not being able use EAD because i am in the same situation" lol

[jackbrown_890]

Just because you get an EAD/AP does not meet you lose your H status..you can continue on H status and wife can come on H4...

Sorry, I meant, if you USE EAD!!!

[jackbrown_890]

"... he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...."

This is NOT entirely true. You SHOULD not leave your primary H1B job for EAD. The case that you mentioned will arise only if the applicant leaves his H1B job for a EAD job.

At this juncture, I'd like to reiterate to everyone that LEAVING your H1b for EAD is not a smart move. Don't make that decision in haste before getting your GC in hand. You can use your EAD for a second job, if you will.

I agree, you should not be leaving ur h1 for no reason,,.but i was talking about if situation arises and if i have to leave my job or loose my job,, can I change jobs using AC21 if i am using EAD (may b after 180 days)? or if not and if i loose my H1 job before AOS approval, do I have to transfer H1 and start GC process from the beginning?

[geterdone]

I think EAD can be used for any employer. So what is the risk of using EAD when you have H-1? Please explain

"... he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...."

This is NOT entirely true. You SHOULD not leave your primary H1B job for EAD. The case that you mentioned will arise only if the applicant leaves his H1B job for a EAD job.

At this juncture, I'd like to reiterate to everyone that LEAVING your H1b for EAD is not a smart move. Don't make that decision in haste before getting your GC in hand. You can use your EAD for a second job, if you will.

[mesan123]

Hi GURU's

what do you think the moment will be in march & april bulletion's...i know we cant calculate much as not much data is available, as of the this moment is pretty much enough for atleast 2- 3 years of visa numbers...

in ron's forum he mentioned

'Based on the information contained in Part D, as well as the announced demand data, it appears that the USCIS is not doing a very good job of processing files to completion. If this continues (and it likely will), then it is entirely possible that India and China EB2 could become current or near-current by May.'

'The Visa Office uses all known demand through about the 25th of the previous month. They take into account NVC cases that are deemed "documentarily qualified" as well as known USCIS demand for visas. They look at the available supply of visas for the upcoming month, apply the known demand to it, and try to calculate how many applicants can be given visas without exceeding the permissible supply. '

just adding this for discussion and perspective from you guys.....

[qblogfan]

Guys, I saw an approval on MITBBS and he/she submitted 485 in November. It looks like USCIS is not only approving Oct. cases, but also approving Nov. cases.

NSC-RD2011/10/20 -PD2007/5/31- i485Approved at 2011/12/24

[suninphx]

Guys, I saw an approval on MITBBS and he/she submitted 485 in November. It looks like USCIS is not only approving Oct. cases, but also approving Nov. cases.

NSC-RD2011/10/20 -PD2007/5/31- i485Approved at 2011/12/24

RD is 20th Oct.- so isn't he/she OCt filer than November?

[vishnu]

So more approvals flowing in means there is less likelihood that CO moves dates aggresively? Bummer! My PD is Sep 2010.

[qblogfan]

I am sorry. It was an October case, not November Case.

It looks like they are approving October cases right now. Maybe November cases will be approved later this month or next month.

RD is 20th Oct.- so isn't he/she OCt filer than November?