EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[self.coach]

When will this start affecting EB2IC in the future?

EB3 seems to be losing people from the queue rapidly (comparatively speaking, compared to 2.8K/year pace). We would expect the DD to come down by about 250 per month. Now, lets compare the DD for Nov 2011 and Feb 2012 (3 months duration)
Year-----Difference
2003-----700
2004-----900
2005-----1200
2006-----1375
2007-----1600
2011-----1700

DD going down by 1700 in 3 months is quite significant. Effect of porting and demand destruction perhaps. Whatever may be the reason, it is good to see that happening. Whatever makes a dent in the 50K+ EB3 inventory is good news from a long term perspective.

[Spectator]

Where is the demand from the November filers? None of them have received GCs yet, and it is just surprising that in the last 2 months, they could not even convert a couple of thousand cases into demand? Maybe I am misinterpreting something.

Demand is only seen by DOS from USCIS when they request a visa number in the process of approving the I-485.

If the PD is Current it is used immediately and Demand does not go up. Since the latest possible dates for EB2-IC are still Current, no new case approvals will impact the Demand Data figures.

A reduction in pre-adjudicated cases will lower the Demand data figure.

A Consular Processing case where the visa has been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place will increase the Demand figure.

For new cases, it is going to take 4-6 months for USCIS to get to the stage of being able to approve them. Even for October filers that means the end of January at the earliest, except for a few outliers. Hoping for 4 month adjudication may well be optimistic.

With all that taken into account, the latest DD figures look exactly as I would expect.

They will only start to rise significantly after dates retrogress and USCIS ask for a visa which is not immediately available, or if visa numbers under QSP run out.

[imdeng]

There is no effect on EB2I except as some kind of indication of the volume of porting. If we assume that all the demand reduction except for 2002 PD is for porting, then that gives us an estimate of porting as 1000 (1700 - 700) for the three months. Extrapolated: 4000 porting for the full year. The actual number will be lower since a good number of post-2002PD demand reduction can be due to factors like parallel perms.

When will this start affecting EB2IC in the future?

[Desperate8]

Guys I am glad to see the movement at the same time I do feel surprised and confused on why would the dates move so fast.Is it going to be the fact that the Chinese nationals backlog is slimmer than Indian and so we are being showered by blessings ?
Also what is the whole funda of Receive Date ? Why is RD so important did it overrides the Priority date ?

Are we all going to be in limbo (sitting and waiting for EAD like 2007 fiasco) ,Does this also mean its a fiasco in parts
Any knowledge on the last PD that got approved the most recent one ?

[Jonty Rhodes]

Demand is low in the demand data as expected and predicted by Gurus here. I think demand data for next month and the month after will give us a clear picture. Also I-485 inventory once released will make it even clearer. In my opinion, this month's VB movement will be at CO's discretion and if the demand destruction is not huge than retrogression is imminent from next VB. If the demand destruction is moderate than the dates may stall for the rest of the FY2012 starting from next few months. Only if the demand destruction is of mammoth size, than the dates will continue to move forward. I hope the third scenario is true.

[sp2008]

Hello,
Can any one please direct me about walk-in centers for finger printing in NJ?
I know there is a center in Newark. But not sure if it is walk-in or it just allows scheduled appointments.

Thanks

[username]

Hello,
Can any one please direct me about walk-in centers for finger printing in NJ?
I know there is a center in Newark. But not sure if it is walk-in or it just allows scheduled appointments.

Thanks

Enter your ZipCode and will give you your nearest ASC
https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...ffice_type=ASC

[veni001]

Guys I am glad to see the movement at the same time I do feel surprised and confused on why would the dates move so fast.Is it going to be the fact that the Chinese nationals backlog is slimmer than Indian and so we are being showered by blessings ?
Also what is the whole funda of Receive Date ? Why is RD so important did it overrides the Priority date ?

Are we all going to be in limbo (sitting and waiting for EAD like 2007 fiasco) ,Does this also mean its a fiasco in parts
Any knowledge on the last PD that got approved the most recent one ?

Desperate8,
USCIS will process applications based on RD.

Once the application(s) are documentarily qualified (processing complete) and the Cut-off dates are not retrogressed for that PD, then USCIS will request for Immigrant VISA from DOS.

Please refer to Spec's Post#3611 for your other question.

[sp2008]

Enter your ZipCode and will give you your nearest ASC
https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...ffice_type=ASC

Thank you for quick response. I saw that link. The info does not say if it is a walk-in or not. (none on the website say so). So I am waiting for ppl who might have recently did biometrics in NJ area via walk-in process.

[romanitaly]

You can walk in to any ASC. Once you walk in it depends on the mood of the ASC manager, if he/she is in a good mood you will get in, if not you may have to come back after you reschedule your appointment.

Most experiences I have seen have been positive over the holiday season.

Thank you for quick response. I saw that link. The info does not say if it is a walk-in or not. (none on the website say so). So I am waiting for ppl who might have recently did biometrics in NJ area via walk-in process.

[nishant2200]

Wov, call 2026631541 USA phone number

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-dates-are-out

EB2 IC : 1 Jan 2010

I verified by calling this number. Is this phone number legit?

--------------
update, number seems to be legit!!

It is in the VB itself mentioned:
The Department of State also has available a recorded message with visa cut-off dates which can be heard at: (202) 663-1541. The recording is normally updated by the middle of each month with information on cut-off dates for the following month.

[rdsingh79]

Interesting excerpt from VB:-
Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Congrats to everyone who became "Current" in this VB.

[nishant2200]

1. Heartfelt congratulations to all who got current

2. Do not miss applying ever but also Remember that always in the month you are current, around the 8th, you will get VB for next month, so you will know if you are still current in next month, or your current month is the only period you have to get in.

3. Marriage: Since the dates have moved fast, I would like to say a higher number of folks would be not married, so how to handle this, needs to be discussed with lawyer and personal plans needs to be designed out.

4. And from VB:
Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

This is something new: or USCIS processing increases. It indicates to me that a very clever usage of words, on one hand, he says level of filings is low, and on other hand he kind of indicates but we have got some good stuff and it may get ready soon.

[kd2008]

1. Heartfelt congratulations to all who got current

2. Do not miss applying ever but also Remember that always in the month you are current, around the 8th, you will get VB for next month, so you will know if you are still current in next month, or your current month is the only period you have to get in.

3. Marriage: Since the dates have moved fast, I would like to say a higher number of folks would be not married, so how to handle this, needs to be discussed with lawyer and personal plans needs to be designed out.

4. And from VB:
Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

This is something new: or USCIS processing increases. It indicates to me that a very clever usage of words, on one hand, he says level of filings is low, and on other hand he kind of indicates but we have got some good stuff and it may get ready soon.

Nishant, I think the word after what you bolded is equally important. Not only should the USCIS processing increase, but it should increase significantly

That is going to be the key. I am expecting CO will put off retrogression till he runs out of visas.

As to how much will the dates move forward from here? ..dunno and no body can guess either ...CO has been really generous ..God bless his heart!

[nishant2200]

Nishanth, I think the word after what you bolded is equally important. Not only should the USCIS processing increase, but it should increase significantly

That is going to be the key. I am expecting CO will put off retrogression till he runs out of visas.

As to how much will the dates move forward from here? ..dunno and no body can guess either ...CO has been really generous ..God bless his heart!

Kd, I agree with you. If the demand being offered by USCIS is not significant, if he has QSP, he can gobble up that demand.

[jackbrown_890]

Thanks sportsfan33

Honestly, I don't think the dates will retrogress in March. Think about it. After the incredible speed the last 2 months, they would require at least 2 months to *digest*. I believe retrogression would start realistically in May/June. At worst, the dates would stall.

If I were you, I would keep everything ready and do whatever there needs to be done to sending a single application and adding your wife later (you would have to wait to get your FP done and most likely postpone the marriage date in the worst case), but *not* send the application until the March dates are out.

Good luck, and congratulations on your marriage! It's going to start on the right foot...nothing is better than for the spouse to have her EAD on day 1 in the US.

EDIT: BTW, I need to correct myself. You won't be able to add your wife later unless the dates were current, so if they are retrogressed, only you will get your EAD and she has to wait until the dates are current. I think that's what my lawyer told me, I could be wrong...so check with Gurus and your lawyer.

[chagas]

Congrats everyone who became current today

[nishant2200]

My hands are literally shaking writing this - Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Kanmani, SportsFan, and all of you (apologies if I missed - case of shaking hands) thank you very very much for you ideology. Stay firm, stay forcused, do good, spread good information, provide solace to those of us in limbo land.

Heartiest Congratulations all.

My spouse is still on B1 and my lawyer just informed me that AOS cannot be applied for him unless H4 COS happens no matter no matter - have reached here, will climb some more

You are most welcome friend. I know how you feeling, I myself went thru it. When I first found out I was current on mumbai consulate website at night time, my hands were shaking and even voice trembling, I was moving around in the room frantically, and my wife was looking at me as to why I am so happy as well as tense.

[imviswa]

This is my first post in this forum, but I have been following all your posts for a very long time. I really appreciate all the analysis and stuff by the experts, it really keep me going...My PD became current as well..If the dates are going to retrogress next month, Will i still get my EAD and AP? Approximately, How long it will take for someone to receive them?

[Desperate8]

Guys happy for all the families, I know many would have been through hard times !!! May god bless all and let this happiness game continue.
I wish EB3 moves in the same fashion. One thing interesting to know is that I-485 can be filed by you with your recent paystubs , this is what my employer told me.They have had tons and tons of GC done in the past, I was thinking of our friends who would be thinking that they were at the hands of the employer, yes your I-140 should have been approved and not revoked then you are in good hands.
Hope this all ends well.

[GhostWriter]

WOW, congrats to everyone who became current, i also did (Nov-2009), can actually feel the current through my body . A very big thanks to everyone on this forum for making this journey easier and all the help in clarifying the process (special thanks to Q, spec, veni, teddy, nishant and all the gurus).
I was looking at the forum till 4:15 or so and then left work after everyone had reached the consensus that we will have to wait till next week for the bulletin and then i just checked the forum again at home and saw 5 pages of posts
Extremely happy, thanks everyone, wish others get current soon as well. I had not thought that it will happen so soon.
Another reason for posting this message is so that no on can say that enough congrats and thank you messages were not posted like last month !!

[imdeng]

Oh Boy!!! I am CURRENT!!!

I had given up on VB today and left for my evening badminton league - came back and just checked to see if there has been any further discussion of DD and Bam! I am numb right now.

Congratulations to all the 2009 PD folks. We are a lucky bunch - less than 3 years for EAD/AP filing. I hope the PD movement trend continues.

[qesehmk]

Friends
Many congrats to all those current. Wish you godspeed to ead AC21 and GC!!
Right now on tarmac .. In transit. Will write more once home tomorrow.
All the best!

[gomesnj]

Hi Everyone, Congrats to all who became current in today's bulletin

My PD is FEB 2010, so have to wait for the next month bulletin.
Have a question, I am in my OPT period and my cos to H1b is in process(regular). If I become current in next month bulletin, can I still go ahead and apply my I485 or do I need to wait for my H1B to be approved.
Experts who have any idea in my situation, please advice.

[sugada]

Unimaginable, its beyond calculations. Amazing! Nearly 4 year movement in just 8 months. Congrats to all.
I am in Feb 2011, and I really dont know what to expect.
Cheers to all.