EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[dorais]

Got it. The numbers are for filing receipts.

dorais- I am referring to this link
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/c..._petitions.pdf

On page 7 it talks about receipt data not approvals.

[vizcard]

As rdsingh pointed out, the 485 data is ONLY field offices and not the service centers where most of the EB cases go.

[veni001]

I-485

Approval- 29,969 Denials- 7,559 Pending -2,411

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...a_2011-oct.pdf

This data is only for USCIS field offices. This does not include case majority of cases handled by service centers (TSC and NSC).

As rdsingh pointed out, the 485 data is ONLY field offices and not the service centers where most of the EB cases go.

vizcard; rdsingh,

That's correct. In addition field office numbers include all kinds of adjustment applications, not just EB.

[Kanmani]

Suninphx

As a raw data, we can interpret
2008 is 50% of 2007
2009 is 28% of 2007
2010 is 58% of 2007
We have 2007 data available ,could it be that much record low ? I doubt something is missing .
Lets wait for Spec .

[suninphx]

Suninphx

As a raw data, we can interpret
2008 is 50% of 2007
2009 is 28% of 2007
2010 is 58% of 2007
We have 2007 data available ,could it be that much record low ? I doubt something is missing .
Lets wait for Spec .

Can you please ealaborate how you arrived at these %?

[Kanmani]

suninphx
very simply derived from your numbers from yesterday's post
2007- 60000 +
2008 - 30000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000

[suninphx]

suninphx
very simply derived from your numbers from yesterday's post
2007- 60000 +
2008 - 30000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000

Here is how I am calculating. To keep our calculations simple lets assume that receipts of FY 2008, 2009, 2010 cover the PDs of Aug 2007- Dec 2009.

So that gives us a total of 82000.
Add 5000 to even out the range so that gives us 92000
With 90% approval rate we get 82800. Lets round figure it to 83000

From Spec' data for period of Aug 2007- Dec 2009 we have total ROW PERM count of 76878 (~ 77000)

Assuming 60% of those are EB2 gives us 46200

So that leaves us approximate EB2IC count of (83000- 46200) = 36800
If we deduct around 9k - 10 K porting case it gives us EB2IC in range of 25-27 K. This number looks more on optimistic side.

Note: Also we have to still deduct cases for double filings (husband / wife both filing), multiple filings etc. But lets not go that far yet.

So thats my take.

[qesehmk]

Dear Friends,

As the year closes in, let me take the opportunity to thank ALL of you for your active and meaningful participation. Your participation is what has helped this forum grow into probably the most useful and go-to-place for EB predictions today. And more important that pageviews etc ... your participation is what has kept this forum clean & cooperative.

I want to thank the contributors - and its very difficult to name all - but you know who they are. Their tireless and laser focus on OBJECTIVE INFORMATION helps us keep grounded and not engage in irrational fear or exuberance. I also want to thank the Advocacy thread and its "Advocates" who have really brought all of us great information, advocacy and hope. I also want to thank our occasional "poet-at-heart-contributors"! As we say again and again ... GC shouldnt be the destination ... it could only be a means to what one wants to do in life. Finally ... and certainly a key note of thanks goes to our moderators who keep this forum clean of SPAM. Trust me - even I do not know - when these moderators clean up a SPAM posting!! We should really thank these moderators. Another thing that we should be proud of is that these moderators safeguard everybody's right to post. Only in extreme situations have they or me deleted a post. So lets keep it that way. It's important that everybody gets an opportunity to bring forth a piece of information or voice their opinion.

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Next year we plan to release a new tool "Self-Service-Forecasting-Tool (SSFT)". This tool will allow individuals to forecast time to GC themselves. Expect to hear from me sometime in Q1 of next year.

Once again ... thanks a ton for your participation. I wish you all, your families and your children a very happy prosperous and healthy new year!! Lets hope HR3012 goes through in 2012. Let your careers flourish and you discover new things and happiness. As far as this forum is considered -- let good thoughts come to us from all directions and we spread them in all directions in return All the best!

p.s. - Today we donated an additional $121 for this month to Ashraya Initiative. Those interested .... pls check out ... http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...7402#post17402

[eb2visa]

These numbers are not including national interest waiver

2007 has 60,000 cases, are we sure, are we thinking correctly? Are these only belongs to the respective years. I think we may just need to remove more than one submission from the same employee and wife and husband double submission and abandoned ones. Please correct me...

[suninphx]

These numbers are not including national interest waiver

2007 has 60,000 cases, are we sure, are we thinking correctly? Are these only belongs to the respective years. I think we may just need to remove more than one submission from the same employee and wife and husband double submission and abandoned ones. Please correct me...

IMO - they do not belong to respective years.

[jackbrown_890]

Happy New Year!!!

[eb2visa]

EB1 I-140 stats

http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-c...Statistics.pdf

[eb2visa]

Look at
Applications for Immigration Benefits - <Month Year> Monthly Chart
This will give an idea of how many I-485's approved each year.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

[devi_pd]

The I-485 receipt volume indicates there are 1,100 EB2I applications in October. This is the difference between Sep and Oct 2011 receipts. The PWMB demand seems significant. There is no demand destruction here. When the numbers for the next month come out we'll get a better understanding of the EB2I demand post July 2007.

[rdsingh79]

Devi_pd,
what data are you referring to deduce this?

The I-485 receipt volume indicates there are 1,100 EB2I applications in October. This is the difference between Sep and Oct 2011 receipts. The PWMB demand seems significant. There is no demand destruction here. When the numbers for the next month come out we'll get a better understanding of the EB2I demand post July 2007.

[suninphx]

Devi_pd,
what data are you referring to deduce this?

Devi_pd,
Also elaborate on why you say there is no DD.

[devi_pd]

I am looking at the 485 receipts for Sep 2011 and Oct 2011 from the link provided by eb2visa.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

I was assuming that the difference in volume between the two months can be attributed to EB2I cases with data Apr-Jul 2007 that were filed in Oct 2011. The difference in 1,100. If demand destruction were true, this number should be very small since most people with PDs in that range filed during Jul-Aug 2007.

[suninphx]

I am looking at the 485 receipts for Sep 2011 and Oct 2011 from the link provided by eb2visa.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD


I was assuming that the difference in volume between the two months can be attributed to EB2I cases with data Apr-Jul 2007 that were filed in Oct 2011. The difference in 1,100. If demand destruction were true, this number should be very small since most people with PDs in that range filed during Jul-Aug 2007.

I am not sure if the number which you arrived at is correct. And even if it was correct it is much lower than estimated figure on this forum which is 2500-3000.

[suninphx]

True that. Discussion is the main thing. To start with what do you think about this article from CM on the data?

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...nd-yearly.html

Thanks for this. If I am reading it right then CM is suggesting around 26k I140 demand for PD 2008 and PD 2009. If you look at my post #3696 I have similar number of 25k -27k of I140 demand but thats for period of Aug 07 -Dec 09. And CM is right - there may be some DD on top of this. Let me know whats your take on this data.

[GhostWriter]

Another interesting thing to note is that I140 approval rate for EB2-I is close to 100% from his post. We have been assuming 80% so this will probably compensate for our underestimating the DD to some extent if it is higher.

Thanks for this. If I am reading it right then CM is suggesting around 26k I140 demand for PD 2008 and PD 2009. If you look at my post #3696 I have similar number of 25k -27k of I140 demand but thats for period of Aug 07 -Dec 09. And CM is right - there may be some DD on top of this. Let me know whats your take on this data.

[suninphx]

Another interesting thing to note is that I140 approval rate for EB2-I is close to 100% from his post. We have been assuming 80% so this will probably compensate for our underestimating the DD to some extent if it is higher.

Yeah that is really interesting. From graph it's more of 95% for years 2008 and 2009 and then becoming almost 100% later.

[shaumack]

Here is how I am calculating. To keep our calculations simple lets assume that receipts of FY 2008, 2009, 2010 cover the PDs of Aug 2007- Dec 2009.

So that gives us a total of 82000.
Add 5000 to even out the range so that gives us 92000
With 90% approval rate we get 82800. Lets round figure it to 83000

From Spec' data for period of Aug 2007- Dec 2009 we have total ROW PERM count of 76878 (~ 77000)

Assuming 60% of those are EB2 gives us 46200

So that leaves us approximate EB2IC count of (83000- 46200) = 36800
If we deduct around 9k - 10 K porting case it gives us EB2IC in range of 25-27 K. This number looks more on optimistic side.

Note: Also we have to still deduct cases for double filings (husband / wife both filing), multiple filings etc. But lets not go that far yet.

So thats my take.

I agree with your estimation of 36800 from Aug 2007-Dec 2009 but when you started looking at 9K-10K porting numbers that is where I disagree. I believe porting was a negligible phenomena until end of 2009. When spillover rule changed in early 2010 or end of FY 2009 that is when more and more individuals started looking into it. This is one reason why we see outlier with 2010 PERM and I-140 data. I would not consider porting for 2008 and 2009.

if we will take CM's 26K for 2008 and 2009, and add 2000 PERM each month from Aug 07- Dec 07, numbers becomes 26000 + 2000*5 = 36K. This is exactly what you calculated without taking porting into consideration.

I agree with you and CM that other factors based on DD should be considered on top of this. 36K could be a good number that can be used for 2007-2009 before one will consider demand destruction.

Let me know what you think about this.

[suninphx]

I agree with your estimation of 36800 from Aug 2007-Dec 2009 but when you started looking at 9K-10K porting numbers that is where I disagree. I believe porting was a negligible phenomena until end of 2009. When spillover rule changed in early 2010 or end of FY 2009 that is when more and more individuals started looking into it. This is one reason why we see outlier with 2010 PERM and I-140 data. I would not consider porting for 2008 and 2009.

if we will take CM's 26K for 2008 and 2009, and add 2000 PERM each month from Aug 07- Dec 07, numbers becomes 26000 + 2000*5 = 36K. This is exactly what you calculated without taking porting into consideration.

I agree with you and CM that other factors based on DD should be considered on top of this. 36K could be a good number that can be used for 2007-2009 before one will consider demand destruction.

Let me know what you think about this.

Thanks for reply. I respect your opinion in terms of porting number. I still think that we need to deduct some numbers for porting. But that may not be as high as 3k-3.5k which I initially calculated - just realized that it's resultant 485 numbers. So corresponding I140 numbers may not be more than 1.5k. In any case these are very initial calculations and wil need to be refined further.
And main question is what's % of DD we are comfortable for double PERM filings etc.

[shaumack]

One more thing that we should get grip of is the I-140 to I-485 conversion factor. Is 2.125 to 2.25 still true when dates are moving into latest priority dates? Do we think that those filing in 2009 or later have family of 2 or more? Even if number is around 1.75 vs. 2.25, we are talking about difference of demand of 500 for every 1000 applications.

[suninphx]

One more thing that we should get grip of is the I-140 to I-485 conversion factor. Is 2.125 to 2.25 still true when dates are moving into latest priority dates? Do we think that those filing in 2009 or later have family of 2 or more? Even if number is around 1.75 vs. 2.25, we are talking about difference of demand of 500 for every 1000 applications.

Thats very good point. Most of my friends have US born kids but this data is something where logic plays a little role