EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[self.coach]

From my experience, it does not look unreasonable as a significant fraction of Indians (especially those who have gotten their Masters from the US) now have working spouses with another PERM application.

This is an apt observation and I had always thought that eventually a significant percentage of applicants would bail out of their personal GC process if their spouses become current. The question is how soon is that 'slot' available for reuse.

[self.coach]

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[GhostWriter]

Sportsfan33, sorry don't follow your logic.
Firstly the dependent factor is not necessary to calculate demand destruction from multiple PERM data, it should cancel out.
Look at it this way
Total PERMs filed = 121*1 + 56*2 + 11*3 + 8*4 = 298
Total PERMs that will be used = 121 + 56 + 11 + 8 = 196

So PERMs that won't be used = 298 - 196 = 102
Demand destruction due to Multiple PERMs = 102/298 = 34% (same as what Spec mentioned)

Hmmm,

Let's say each PERM could carry 2.125, which is the baseline. So 196 PERMS * 2.125 people = 417 applicants.

Due to the multiple PERMs, applicants can be recalculated as: (121*2 + 56*2/2 + 11*2/3 + 8*2/4) * 2.125/2. The quantity in the bracket assumes 2 people per PERM and the quantity outside the bracket is an adjustment factor for 2.125 people per PERM = 329 applicants.

Reduction = (417 - 329)/417 = 21% (it turned out less today).

Another way to look at it. Ignore all 3 or more PERMs. 121 people had single PERMs and 75 had multiple PERMs...let's assume all of them had only 2. So indeed, 38% of the total PERMs were multiple PERMs (75/196).

Now, without multiple PERMs, in order to generate a demand of 100, you would need 50 PERM applications. With multiple PERMs, in order to generate the same demand and also satisfy the condition that 38% of the PERMs are multiple, you would need approximately 62 PERM applications. Why? Because 62 * 0.38 = 24, which are the number of multiple PERMs and 12 of them will not be claimed, and remaining 50 will be used to generate a demand of 100. Notice that 62*0.8 = 50. So to account for multiple PERMs, we should multiply by 0.8 (which represents about 20% reduction in PERMs).

[srimurthy]

Sportsfan33, sorry don't follow your logic.
Firstly the dependent factor is not necessary to calculate demand destruction from multiple PERM data, it should cancel out.
Look at it this way
Total PERMs filed = 121*1 + 56*2 + 11*3 + 8*4 = 298
Total PERMs that will be used = 121 + 56 + 11 + 8 = 196

So PERMs that won't be used = 298 - 196 = 102
Demand destruction due to Multiple PERMs = 102/298 = 34% (same as what Spec mentioned)

I know Guru's might have taken note of the below but as a FYI, most of the big firms who applied for PERMS either in EB2 or EB3 in 2009 have pulled them back in large numbers because of RFE's instead of replying to the RFE's. Firms like Cognizant, Accenture, Infosys and others. So this could also be a factor to the no of PERM's finally landing with a 140.

[Pdmar08]

Nishant, Veni & All following are the current approvals of Oct Filers on Trackitt, finally new 485 approvals have started.
Starchaser, Abracadabra - NSC PWMB
Superman123 (Spouse only) - TSC
I believe that the approvals especially for Oct filers should pick up next month once fresh numbers for the next quarter are being allocated and current time being holiday season a lot of people maybe on vacation (Its noteworthy that EAD / AP approvals are coming fast). There have been atleast 10K approvals for the Jul 2007 / Pre Oct 01 filers this year. On Trackitt there are a good number of PWMB cases from Aug that have seen approvals. The Oct filers count should be between 2.5 – 3K hopefully most of them will get approved next month; even RD / ND will be significant besides PD.

Hi Teddy,
Can you please elaborate a bit on how PD Vs RD/ND will play out? My company lawyers filed on 12/20 though i was ready on 12/1. Not that i want to go argue with anyone, this is for my understanding that i would like to know.

thanks!

[Pdmar08]

I know Guru's might have taken note of the below but as a FYI, most of the big firms who applied for PERMS either in EB2 or EB3 in 2009 have pulled them back in large numbers because of RFE's instead of replying to the RFE's. Firms like Cognizant, Accenture, Infosys and others. So this could also be a factor to the no of PERM's finally landing with a 140.

There was big batch in 2008 from a big company(if you are using a PC, u probably know which one ) that were withdrawn after rejection in audit. Some folks are still fighting to keep that 2008 PD but most have re-applied in 2011 and are now ready with I140 approved.

[suninphx]

Nishant, Veni & All following are the current approvals of Oct Filers on Trackitt, finally new 485 approvals have started.
Starchaser, Abracadabra - NSC PWMB
Superman123 (Spouse only) - TSC
I believe that the approvals especially for Oct filers should pick up next month once fresh numbers for the next quarter are being allocated and current time being holiday season a lot of people maybe on vacation (Its noteworthy that EAD / AP approvals are coming fast). There have been atleast 10K approvals for the Jul 2007 / Pre Oct 01 filers this year. On Trackitt there are a good number of PWMB cases from Aug that have seen approvals. The Oct filers count should be between 2.5 – 3K hopefully most of them will get approved next month; even RD / ND will be significant besides PD.

So assuming 2500/month density for apr 07 - jul 07 - 33% or more people missed the boat?

[Kanmani]

Perms withdrawn and denied were already excluded in the Perm data compiled by Spec/Veni.

I know Guru's might have taken note of the below but as a FYI, most of the big firms who applied for PERMS either in EB2 or EB3 in 2009 have pulled them back in large numbers because of RFE's instead of replying to the RFE's. Firms like Cognizant, Accenture, Infosys and others. So this could also be a factor to the no of PERM's finally landing with a 140.

[vizcard]

So assuming 2500/month density for apr 07 - jul 07 - 33% or more people missed the boat?

Keep me honest but I believe PWMB is pre-July 2007 PDs who missed the July 2007 fiasco. July 2007 onwards are not PWMB.

[vizcard]

Hi Teddy,
Can you please elaborate a bit on how PD Vs RD/ND will play out? My company lawyers filed on 12/20 though i was ready on 12/1. Not that i want to go argue with anyone, this is for my understanding that i would like to know.

thanks!

Apps are processed by RD but visas are allocated by PD. It'll be a matter of few days so don't worry about it.

[suninphx]

Keep me honest but I believe PWMB is pre-July 2007 PDs who missed the July 2007 fiasco. July 2007 onwards are not PWMB.

Oct filers have PDs of Apr 07 - Jul 07. So they are PWMBs.

[TeddyKoochu]

There was big batch in 2008 from a big company(if you are using a PC, u probably know which one ) that were withdrawn after rejection in audit. Some folks are still fighting to keep that 2008 PD but most have re-applied in 2011 and are now ready with I140 approved.

Apps are processed by RD but visas are allocated by PD. It'll be a matter of few days so don't worry about it.

Pdmar08, vizcard explained it very elegantly the point is the sooner the application is in and if numbers are available and the dates stay current it has a higher likelihood to reach the hands and eyes of an officer earlier and be approved. If the numbers are available it can just be a matter of a few days.

These things however did matter in 2008 when EB2 I/C moved to 2006 suddenly, the 10% folks who were approved had all filed on Day 1 / 2 of the Jul 2007 fiasco.

[TeddyKoochu]

So assuming 2500/month density for apr 07 - jul 07 - 33% or more people missed the boat?

The PWMB figures were computed by different means earlier, in fact this was the starting point of the great work by Spec and Veni on the perm data. The rough estimate was anywhere from 4.5-5K. The term PWMB meant anyone who missed the Jul 2007 boat, realistically had a PD before Aug 15th 2007. When we see the Jul 2011 filings looks like there are a good number of people even with a PD before 15th Apr 2007 who missed the boat. However people from 15th Apr to 15th Aug were more likely to miss the boat in those days Atlanta was taking 3 months while Chicago only 3 days to approve perms. Most PWMB's belong to Atlanta. So anyone who applied atleast in Jun, Jul and Aug from Atlanta was almost a certain candidate to miss. The 33% factor is a actually an interesting observation you have derived, out of the say 4K it is highly likely that 2.5-3k do belong to Apr 15 to Jul 15th range. We may never see some of the cases inventoried because the approvals have started.

[suninphx]

The PWMB figures were computed by different means earlier, in fact this was the starting point of the great work by Spec and Veni on the perm data. The rough estimate was anywhere from 4.5-5K. The term PWMB meant anyone who missed the Jul 2007 boat, realistically had a PD before Aug 15th 2007. When we see the Jul 2011 filings looks like there are a good number of people even with a PD before 15th Apr 2007 who missed the boat. However people from 15th Apr to 15th Aug were more likely to miss the boat in those days Atlanta was taking 3 months while Chicago only 3 days to approve perms. Most PWMB's belong to Atlanta. So anyone who applied atleast in Jun, Jul and Aug from Atlanta was almost a certain candidate to miss. The 33% factor is a actually an interesting observation you have derived, out of the say 4K it is highly likely that 2.5-3k do belong to Apr 15 to Jul 15th range. We may never see some of the cases inventoried because the approvals have started.

Not sure from where 4K figure came from. Anyway I am in mobile browsing mode. I will read your post again once I get home.
PS: I remember that our calculation was 6-7K Pwmbs. What's best method to confirm our calculations were correct. Those numbers might give us initial insight in DD theory.

[TeddyKoochu]

Not sure from where 4K figure came from. Anyway I am in mobile browsing mode. I will read your post again once I get home.
PS: I remember that our calculation was 6-7K Pwmbs. What's best method to confirm our calculations were correct. Those numbers might give us initial insight in DD theory.

Sun Iam not able to locate that post, probably Veni can help us. As far and as far back as I can remember atleast for my own calculations I have always been using 4.5K (Extrapolated inventor if you see my posts in the 2011 thread). The Jul inventory as such has always been a puzzle thanks to the very high NIW filing from our Chinese friends. This is based on the fact that 50% of Jul and Early Aug filers would have missed out and probably 20-30% of Jun and some from April & May. For a moment if we assume that 8K is the PWMB figure then it would imply that atleast 6K came from Apr 15th to Jul 15th then the perm - I485 conversion ratio would go over 1.

[krishnav]

Hello All,

Is there a separate thread where the approvals/Receipts are being tracked?? If yes, could someone point me there.
If not, does any one know what was the case with last known PD that received their Green Card. I am just trying to figure out, if at all retrogression happens (hopefully not), where the dates would be moved to.

Am I assuming wrong when I say if a GC was approved for a PD in Aug 2007, dates will not retrogress beyond Aug 2007 (for eg to Jun 2007).
Please someone clarify.
Thanks.

[Spectator]

Sun Iam not able to locate that post, probably Veni can help us. As far and as far back as I can remember atleast for my own calculations I have always been using 4.5K (Extrapolated inventor if you see my posts in the 2011 thread). The Jul inventory as such has always been a puzzle thanks to the very high NIW filing from our Chinese friends. This is based on the fact that 50% of Jul and Early Aug filers would have missed out and probably 20-30% of Jun and some from April & May. For a moment if we assume that 8K is the PWMB figure then it would imply that atleast 6K came from Apr 15th to Jul 15th then the perm - I485 conversion ratio would go over 1.

Teddy,

It's funny how things get lost over time.

Using an OR of 0.8 I know that the calculated EB2-IC PWMB I-485 for the October VB range of April 15, 2007 to July 14, 2007 is 1,980 (China - 353, India - 1,627).

The EB2-IC PWMB I-485 from July 15, 2007 to Aug 14, 2007 is 1,111 (China - 185, India - 926).

Hope that helps.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

It's funny how things get lost over time.

Using an OR of 0.8 I know that the calculated EB2-IC PWMB I-485 for the October VB range of April 15, 2007 to July 14, 2007 is 1,980 (China - 353, India - 1,627).

The EB2-IC PWMB I-485 from July 15, 2007 to Aug 14, 2007 is 1,111 (China - 185, India - 926).

Hope that helps.

Spec, thanks, it really helps. Depending on the OR of 0.8 - 1 the Oct filers would range between 2-2.5K.

Jul (Assuming 50%) = (1747 + 2007 - 1000 (Exclude NIW)) * 50 / 100 = 1377
Assume 50% filed in Oct and 50% in Nov for Jul PD cases.

Jul = 688
Jun = (1296 + 288) * (50/100) = 792
May = (1043 + 546) * (30/100) = 475

This comes very close to 2000.

This is the link to my post fro the 2011 thread, the Jul PWMB figures are higher because I extrapolated from the inventory itself and that had significant NIW.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...11&p=22#post22

With the way things are moving (Approvals already starting) there are good chances that all Oct filers would be greened early next year. With QSP already running surely there will be 2K numbers to allocate towards these cases.

[abcd1234]

Somehow I reached this thread, and man-o-man, I am so amazed to look at the time and effort had been put and research had been done by so many people. Reading though the thread, initially it is too complex to understand for a layman like me but then there are so many explanations. Wowwww...

Well, can I take this moment to ask a stupid but probably the most important question for the 2009 EB2 I/C filers.

What is the prediction of GURUs for the Feb bulletin on PD movement? I am more of a percent guy regarding predictions. So a percent on different assumptions will also be good.

Thanks guys !!

[eb2visa]

Gurus, Any chance for Aug 31 2009?

[happyimmigrant]

Hello Guru's,

First of all please excuse for posting this here...this is an issue I have and am worrying about it since long.....please do share your thoughts.

Moderators move this thread as appropriate.

Am a Regular reader of this forum and am very much impressed by your valueble suggestions,

Here is my scenario.

I am on h1 since 2006 valid till sep 2009 with I94 till Jan 2009 with company A.

in July 2008 i tried to transfer my h1 to company B, there was RFE and eventually that guy sold the Firm to Company C,
so he did not respond to RFE and so h1 transfer with company B got automatic denial.

now in November 2008 company c tried to transfer my h1 to company c, which was denied in december 2008.

so i was on the payroll of company B & C from july 2008 to december 2008 using the portability law.

now in january 2009 when i contacted Company A, they said they revoked my H1(may not be true)

At last i ended up going back to company A, with I94 valid only till january 2009.

so company A asked for a extension not stating that i had applied for transfer twice, and it was approved till january 2012, and subsequently January 2015.

Company A applied for PERM in April 2009.

and obviously i had 3 W-2's for the FY 2008.

My question now to Guru's is:

i) is that period of 6 months where i was with Company B and Company C on their payroll any cause of concern for me when i file my 485(G325 etc)?
ii) Was i actually out of status (or) involved in unauthorized employment during the said period (July to December 2008)?
iii) Am i eligible for 245(K)?
**) if so what are my chances of 485?
v) if not how will i explain 3 W-2's for 2008 without 3 valid h1's from company A,B,C respectively?
vi) What is the best course of action for me at this point in view of the VB Movement(I may be current next bulliten)?

Any insight on this scenario will be greately appreciated.

Thanks.

[vizcard]

The obvious answer is talk to a good lawyer. Everything you get on message boards comes with a big asterisk mark anyway. So you might as well directly talk to a lawyer.

My 2 cents are that you don't need to worry. Typically you are "in status" if you have a receipt. The question marks from my perspective are two-fold
1. At what point was your companyB app denied. Was it before Nov?
2. What is the legal status and procedure if you get one app denied. This is a broader procedural question.

I'm probably muddying the waters more so as i said, talk to a lawyer... ideally the one who will file your 485.

[Kanmani]

happyimmigrant

How many H1b approvals do you have between 2006 to till date? Who sponsored your GC ?
Are you currently working on H1b? ( it looks like after the first H1b approval everything else is denied)
i) yes
ii)unauthorised employment
iii) yes, with difficulty .
If you have worked without H1b all these years , it will be very difficult to restart your 180 days clock by departing and re-entering . But consult with an immigration attorney to find how to invoke 245(k).

Note: This is not a legal advice

[happyimmigrant]

How many H1b approvals do you have between 2006 to till date? Who sponsored your GC ?
Approvals:
Employer A->2006 October to September 2009.(original)
Employer A->2009 January to January 2012.(extension)
Employer A->2012 January to January 2015.(extension)

Denials:
Employer B->2008 July to September 2008(Transfer applied from A)
Employer C->2008 October to December 2008(transfer applied from B)Are you currently working on H1b? ( it looks like after the first H1b approval everything else is denied)

Yes am on H1b with valid I94 from:
Employer A->2009 January to January 2012.(extension)
Employer A->2012 January to January 2015.(extension)
i) yes
ii)unauthorised employment
iii) yes, with difficulty .
If you have worked without H1b all these years , it will be very difficult to restart your 180 days clock by departing and re-entering . But consult with an immigration attorney to find how to invoke 245(k).

[happyimmigrant]

Thanks Kanmani,

My question is more towards the Legal status/Unauthorized employment for ~6 month period(July 2008 to January 2009), when i left company A-> Joined company B with transfer receipt notice->Joined company C with another transfer receipt notice-> Went back to Company A-> and got H1Extension approved.