EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

Thanks asankaran. Some of my friends who took an early lead in life (!!) have kids going to college. Still waiting for a GC. That's very talented people become hostage to GC. So immigration has turned into slavery. Good to hear that you were moved by seeing the same. Hopefully Obama's second term will be quite bold and better for immigration. And hopefully even before that 3012 is passed.

You are absolutely correct Q. It shows the depth of knowledge you have in this subject. I recently attended advocacy effort and when I really saw the human face behind the mere EB2/EB3 folks it was really moving. Some of the EB3 folks are really old and do not have any clue what the reality is. Some of the families have kids who are close to getting aged out and can no longer be dependents on their parents. This is really not fair.

I initially had hopes on "Republicans" but now I feel "Democrats" are better in this. As long as any politician doesn't understand the human nature behind this problem and they take about legal, illegal it's absolute B.S. You know why "Reagan" was able to get America out of recession and create more jobs..The single reason was "immigration"..

[veni001]

iatiam, unfortunately life is not fair. Life is not a straightline arrow. It has its ebbs and flows. So I agree to the "unfairness" feeling that you express.

The way "illegal" immigration is being targeted today, tomorrow any legal immigration will be targeted. The extreme right in US, when they say they are opposed to illegal immigration - are in truth opposed to any immigration. "Illegal" is just a codeword to rally their troops.

But at the end of the day, we need to look at immigration as a humane issue. Every immigrant has a story and a very powerful one. Yes.... some get more lucky than others. I wouldn't deny that. But as far as I am concerned, this part of the world always belonged to those who ventured and conquered. Where was the definition of legality then? Did anybody get any visa from Cherokees or Navajos? Or did anybody get any visa from Mexico when Texas and California were annexed. So I would let the law deal with the definition of legality.

Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to criticize.

Q,
Very well said.

Merry Christmas all forum members and visitors.

[grnwtg]

True Q, Sad part is we are at mercy of these officials who are once immigrants( and many of their anscesters are illegal/murderers)

iatiam, unfortunately life is not fair. Life is not a straightline arrow. It has its ebbs and flows. So I agree to the "unfairness" feeling that you express.

The way "illegal" immigration is being targeted today, tomorrow any legal immigration will be targeted. The extreme right in US, when they say they are opposed to illegal immigration - are in truth opposed to any immigration. "Illegal" is just a codeword to rally their troops.

But at the end of the day, we need to look at immigration as a humane issue. Every immigrant has a story and a very powerful one. Yes.... some get more lucky than others. I wouldn't deny that. But as far as I am concerned, this part of the world always belonged to those who ventured and conquered. Where was the definition of legality then? Did anybody get any visa from Cherokees or Navajos? Or did anybody get any visa from Mexico when Texas and California were annexed. So I would let the law deal with the definition of legality.

Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to criticize.

[qesehmk]

yes. one sure feels helpless. And i think iatiam expressed the same frustration above that a person who plays by rule feels.

..we are at mercy of these officials who are once immigrants

[kd2008]

We were trying to get a handle on demand destruction from Aug 2007 onwards. One idea may be to put a poll on this forum and find out if people abandoned their gc process and returned to india: http://www.r2iclubforums.com/forums/forum.php

Browsing through the forum may also give an idea. I haven't had the time to do it. Hence suggesting it here. may be some one will volunteer.

[vizcard]

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all. I imagine it is going to be pretty happy for the late 2007 and 2008 folks. Here's to 2009 and later getting good news during 2012.

[enigma]

Merry X'mas and Happy New Year to all!! Hope the new year brings happy endings to our GC journey...

[randomax]

Gents - i'm a newbie to this board and have found the info very helpful till now. I posted this in the "485 and CP-related topics" but have not gotten a reply yet. If anybody can address these questions, i'd be grateful. Alternatively, please point me to the right forum... thanks.

"Hi All - relative newbie here and had a question regarding switching jobs. My PD is june-2010 (Indian, EB2) and I have a potential job offer that I won't take up till April 2012. I have two questions:

1) Maintaining PD: I am fairly certain I can maintain my PD even if I switch jobs. My job profile is going to be fairly similar, but are there any caveats here? Is it more or less a given or are there situations where this does not happen?

2) becoming current: although I think its pretty unlikely but what happens if I become current before a new labor can be filed after I move. for example, I file for labor in june 2012 and i become current in may 2012?

3) how long after filing for 485 before i am no longer tied to my employer?

thanks very much for your thoughts. "

thank you.

[Pdmar08]

It is pretty straightforward.

Without filing I485 with the current employer or without waiting for 6 months after filing with the current employer, if you change your job, you have to restart the PERM process. Your PD is retained if you work in a similar field. It is assumed your I140 is approved in this case. It is also assumed you have a copy of your approved I140 which will be needed for your new PERM application. The only danger here is that your new application may be denied for whatever unforeseen reasons or end up with RFEs and a substantial delay.

If you file 485 with your current employer, you must wait for 6 months before switching in order NOT TO do the whole PERM again. In this case, you should fill a form called AC21 to keep your current green card application alive. I am not sure if this process is automatic, and under what conditions, AC21 might end up in rejection.

I think there is very little chance for the June 2010 PD to become current before fall 2013. In any case, even if that PD were to become current now, if your new offer was substantially better than the current job, I would take it. Why? Because you would be getting a similar substantially better offer (theoretically in an utopian world) when you get your EAD anyway. If you are getting that offer sooner, why leave that chance? If you are working in a similar field, retention of the PD is usually not problematic. Of course it is assumed that you are confident enough that your new PERM will be approved without any issues.

sportsfan33,
Related calrifying question.
Say i need to switch jobs 6 months after applying for AOS using AC21, is the job switch on H1b or EAD?
I know that it is recommended that we keep the H1 status till we get GC but the concern is if AC21 is on EAD then in case of denail, the choices are minimal.

thanks!

[qesehmk]

AC21 doesn't distinguish between H1 or EAD. Both only "legally" enable the candidate to take up a job. AC21 only looks at whether the "new" job is "same or similar" to the one mentioned in 485 application.

Long story short .... dont worry about H1 or EAD. If I were you .... I would transfer my H1 after taking up the new job as a backup just in case 485 was rejected for whatever reason - whether related to AC21 or not.

p.s. - Just to be clear if AC21 fails then so the underlying 485 will be denied - which will make the EAD void (not sure if instantaneously or after the period ends. My gut feel is instantaneously.) So if one were to switch jobs and transfers H1 then at least you keep your job in case AC21 fails.

sportsfan33,
Related calrifying question.
Say i need to switch jobs 6 months after applying for AOS using AC21, is the job switch on H1b or EAD?
I know that it is recommended that we keep the H1 status till we get GC but the concern is if AC21 is on EAD then in case of denail, the choices are minimal.

thanks!

[Pdmar08]

AC21 doesn't distinguish between H1 or EAD. Both only "legally" enable the candidate to take up a job. AC21 only looks at whether the "new" job is "same or similar" to the one mentioned in 485 application.

Long story short .... dont worry about H1 or EAD. If I were you .... I would transfer my H1 after taking up the new job as a backup just in case 485 was rejected for whatever reason - whether related to AC21 or not.

p.s. - Just to be clear if AC21 fails then so the underlying 485 will be denied - which will make the EAD void (not sure if instantaneously or after the period ends. My gut feel is instantaneously.) So if one were to switch jobs and transfers H1 then at least you keep your job in case AC21 fails.

Makes sense, thanks Q!

[march272010]

heard from few of friends who applied PERMS recently in EB2 , perms are getting approved mostly if the salaries is above 100K only..how far is it true?

[trackitgc]

forgive me for posting my scenario here ... admin's please free to move this to a diff thread if needed.
My scenario is as follows: I have a Master's degree in CS (graduated 2005) & Bachelor's degree in CS. When I joined (joined in 2007) my current company for the title that I joined under was qualified for EB2 (now they changed the job desc on this and moved to EB3 Category). The company folks said they'll file my case within 1 yr but with layoff's etc they could not file it then. In the mean time my job duties changed in 2009 (my H1 job desc was updated as my job duties changed). My current title is currently qualified for EB2 but my case was filed under EB3 last yr (coz the attorney said that based on my original title that I joined the company). Is there a way for me to file under EB2, the problem is my company doesn't want to talk with outside counsel's and they just stick to one law firm. I also currently have a s/w patent application pending (filed in 2009) with a high possibility of getting approved .... Please help me .... on my situation !!!

[gkjppp]

Can you please put the source? Where did you hear this?

Prevailing wage is location specific. Salaries in the Silicon Valley are quite high for example, but so is the median home price. $100K in Northern California is usually equivalent to $50-60K in the Midwest.

My company usually starts an EB2 application at around $80K and most of them are successful (we are based in the Washington DC metropolitan area). It's not written anywhere, just a personal observation. They specifically do *not* start the EB2 application unless you spend a good 2 to 3 years at your position *regardless* of your starting salary (so even if you started at $80K, your EB2 PERM could only start after a minimum of 2 years). Finally, they will not consider EB2 unless you had a US Masters in a STEM field. Although you see many threads on trackitt with people with bachelors only degrees getting through EB2, my company lawyer had once told me it was nearly impossible to get the application approved without a US Masters.

as sportsfan33 said, wages are location dependant. EB2 is based on requirements.ideally BS + 5 years progressive work exp or US MS.EB2 is definetely possible with BS+5 years.i know lot of folks who succeeded in getting PERM done in Eb2.

[qesehmk]

First - its the employer who makes the decision to file under EB2 or EB3. The candidate has no say - from legal standpoint. But you can of course choose an employer and a job that will qualify for an EB2 path.

Its quite clear to me that they want to file under EB3 to retain you with GC processing going on.

The only options I can think of are:

1. Talk to the manager and explain to him that you will be gone if not upgraded to EB2.
2. Find another employer who can file EB2 for you.

I am sorry. But it seems already sufficient time is wasted. And I dont want to give you any false hope.

forgive me for posting my scenario here ... admin's please free to move this to a diff thread if needed.
My scenario is as follows: I have a Master's degree in CS (graduated 2005) & Bachelor's degree in CS. When I joined (joined in 2007) my current company for the title that I joined under was qualified for EB2 (now they changed the job desc on this and moved to EB3 Category). The company folks said they'll file my case within 1 yr but with layoff's etc they could not file it then. In the mean time my job duties changed in 2009 (my H1 job desc was updated as my job duties changed). My current title is currently qualified for EB2 but my case was filed under EB3 last yr (coz the attorney said that based on my original title that I joined the company). Is there a way for me to file under EB2, the problem is my company doesn't want to talk with outside counsel's and they just stick to one law firm. I also currently have a s/w patent application pending (filed in 2009) with a high possibility of getting approved .... Please help me .... on my situation !!!

[Kanmani]

Memo: Educational and Experience Requirements for Employment-Based Second Preference (EB-2) Immigrants


MEMORANDUM FOR All Service Center Directors



SUBJECT: Educational and Experience Requirements for Employment-Based Second Preference (EB-2) Immigrants

This memorandum addresses issues relating to the Adjudicator’s Field Manual , Appendix 22-1. Chapter 22 provides guidance on employment-based immigrant petitions. This memorandum is being released as an appendix to insure complete Service-wide dissemination. The policies outlined within this document will eventually be incorporated within the text of Chapter 22 of the Adjudicator’s Field Manual.

Background

In pertinent part, section 203(b)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (the Act) provides immigrant classification to members of the professions holding advanced degrees or their equivalent and whose services are sought by an employer in the United States.

Petitions seeking the classification of alien beneficiaries as EB-2 advanced degree professionals present a number of issues for Service Center adjudicators. This memorandum provides guidance regarding such decisions.

What is an Advanced Degree?

An advanced degree is a U.S. academic or professional degree or a foreign equivalent degree above the baccalaureate level. 1

What is the Equivalent of an Advanced Degree?

The equivalent of an advanced degree is either a U.S. baccalaureate or foreign equivalent degree followed by at least five years of progressive experience in the specialty. Consequently, an alien beneficiary who does not actually hold an advanced degree may still qualify as an EB-2 professional if he or she has the equivalent of an advanced degree.

There are several ways in which an alien seeking EB-2 classification may satisfy the advanced- degree requirement. The simplest is by possessing a U.S. academic or professional degree above the level of baccalaureate. In the alternative, the foreign equivalent of such a degree is equally acceptable.

An alien with a U.S. or foreign equivalent baccalaureate degree who does not possess an advanced degree may still meet this requirement if the baccalaureate-level degree is followed by at least five years of “progressive experience” in the specialty. 2

What Elements Must Be Established before an EB-2 Petition for an Advanced Degree Professional Can Be Approved?

Two critical elements must be established before an advanced degree EB-2 petition can be approved. First, the position itself must require a member of the professions holding an advanced degree. Second, the alien must possess an advanced degree as shown by a master’s degree or its equivalent. The threshold issue regarding the position itself appears to be the most troublesome in adjudicating EB-2 petitions for advanced degree professionals.

The key to making this determination is found on Form ETA-750 Part A. This section of the application for alien labor certification, “Offer of Employment,” describes the terms and conditions of the job offered. An adjudicator must review the job requirements contained in blocks 14 and 15 of the ETA- 750 and determine whether the position requires an advanced degree professional.

Deciding whether the position requires an advanced degree professional is independent of whether the alien beneficiary is himself an advanced degree professional. If the job itself does not require an advanced degree professional, the petition must be denied, even if the alien beneficiary actually is an advanced degree professional. Likewise, the petition must be denied if the alien beneficiary is not an advanced degree professional, even if the job itself requires an advanced degree professional.

Whether the alien beneficiary actually possesses the advanced degree should be demonstrated by evidence in the form of a transcript from the institution that granted the advanced degree. An adjudicator must similarly consider the baccalaureate transcript and the alien's post-baccalaureate experience for the alien beneficiary claiming the equivalent to an advanced degree.

Does the Job To Be Filled by the Alien Beneficiary Require an Advanced Degree?

A petitioner seeking classification for an EB-2 advanced degree professional must clearly demonstrate that the position requires a member of the professions holding an advanced degree. In other words, blocks 14 and 15 of the ETA-750 must establish that the position requires an employee with either a master’s degree or a U.S. baccalaureate or foreign equivalent degree followed by at least five years of progressive experience in the specialty.

It should be emphasized that the mere absence of the word “progressive” from blocks 14 and 15 on the ETA-750 is not grounds for denial of the petition if the required experience is in fact progressive in nature. Adjudicators should examine the nature of the experience required for the position as described in block 13 of the ETA-750 in order to determine whether such experience is progressive.

What exactly is Progressive Experience?

“Progressive experience” is not defined by statute or regulation. Its plain meaning within the context of EB-2 adjudications is relatively simple: employment experience that reveals progress, moves forward, and advances toward increasingly complex or responsible duties. In short, progressive experience is demonstrated by advancing levels of responsibility and knowledge in the specialty.

Recognizing progressive experience in blocks 14 and 15 of the ETA-750, however, is not so simple. Much of the uncertainty concerning such determinations involves petitions for highly technical positions, which invariably describe required experience in highly technical terms. Such descriptions may be difficult to understand for anyone outside that specific industry.

Adjudicators who encounter these types of descriptions should request that petitioners provide, to the extent possible, plain-English explanations of the experience required. Such descriptions may take the form of a supplemental statement filed with the Service Centers indicating why five years of post- baccalaureate and progressive experience would be necessary to perform successfully the duties set forth in highly technical job descriptions. The supplemental statement should be an affidavit (or other st atement under penalty of perjury) from some person within the petitioning firm who has relevant knowledge concerning the minimum acceptable qualifications for the position involved in the Form I-140 . It is incumbent upon the petitioner to describe the position offered in such a way so that an adjudicator can reasonably determine whether the job actually requires an advanced degree or, in the alternative, five years of post-baccalaureate experience that is progressive in nature.

It is reasonable to infer that highly technical positions are progressive in nature due to the constant state of change in their respective industries. This is not to say, however, that five years of post- baccalaureate experience in a highly technical position automatically translates to an advanced degree in every case. As with any adjudication, a petition seeking classification for an EB-2 advanced degree professional should be decided on a case-by-case basis.

How can these Requirements be Demonstrated?

The terms, “MA,” “ MS,” “Master’s Degree or Equivalent” and “Bachelor’s degree with five years of progressive experience,” all equate to the educational requirements of a member of the professions holding an advanced degree. The threshold for granting EB-2 classification will be satisfied when any of these terms appear in block 14.

It is also important to read the ETA-750 as a whole. In particular, if the education requirement in block 14 includes an asterisk (*) or other footnote, the information included in the note must be considered in determining whether the educational requirement, as a whole, demonstrates that an advanced degree or the equivalent is the minimum acceptable qualification for the position.

As long as the minimum requirement for the job offered is master’s degree or the equivalent, the position should be found to require a member of the professions holding an advanced degree. This is true even if several variations of this requirement are stated.

[immitime]

Regarding PERM :- DOL website link.
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/perm.cfm

[maggie]

Can you please put the source? Where did you hear this?

Prevailing wage is location specific. Salaries in the Silicon Valley are quite high for example, but so is the median home price. $100K in Northern California is usually equivalent to $50-60K in the Midwest.

My company usually starts an EB2 application at around $80K and most of them are successful (we are based in the Washington DC metropolitan area). It's not written anywhere, just a personal observation. They specifically do *not* start the EB2 application unless you spend a good 2 to 3 years at your position *regardless* of your starting salary (so even if you started at $80K, your EB2 PERM could only start after a minimum of 2 years). Finally, they will not consider EB2 unless you had a US Masters in a STEM field. Although you see many threads on trackitt with people with bachelors only degrees getting through EB2, my company lawyer had once told me it was nearly impossible to get the application approved without a US Masters.

Not sure about the legality but here is the rule of thumb that my company attorney shared. If you are in a stable job and going to stay for a while, try to get as high number on perm as possible. Of course the number should have enough margin with salary, just in case. Most of the perm that I have seen with my company are in the range of 95+. We have all sorts of cases where EB2 is approved with Indian Bachelors degree. There are cases where I140 was denied in such cases so it all depends on lot of unknown factors. If you do not have Master degree from US university then you have to be little cautious in current conditions.

[trackitgc]

Thanks Q !!! I plan on talking to my boss next yr on it. Hope some thing works out...

[veni001]

Kanmani,

An important thing to now watch out for is approvals for October filers, which ideally should start trickling in January and in February. NSC has processing time of 4 months.

This is what USCIS says about processing times:
"If the office is processing a particular type of application in less time than our processing goal, you will see the processing times expressed in months (for example, if the office is processing naturalization applications in less than our 5 month goal, the processing time will state "Five Months"). However, if that office is taking longer than our processing goal to handle the form type in question, you will see the filing date (e.g., "April 10, 2003") of the last case we processed on the date the website chart was last updated. The charts are updated on or about the 15th day of each month."

So at least NSC is capable of starting approvals as soon as in 2 months, and mostly always less than 4 months on an average. I have a Korean co-worker, whose concurrent application was approved in 2 months, as soon as he got FP done, in a week he got approval.

This will be an important milestone.

Another thing, today 2/23, they still have not updated processing times, otherwise they consistently update around the 15th as they claim. It indicates to me that indeed they are in holiday mode.

Nishant,

I noticed one EB2I case approval updated on trackitt with RD 10/14/2011.

[Prabhas]

My friend with PD 28th Sep, 2007, got his EAD approved and got his cards last Friday!

[suninphx]

There is a poll on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com to determine the multiple PERM factor. It states:

"ONLY FOR PERMs that were filed post July 2007 :- Select total number of PERMs that you or your spouse currently own post July 2007."

replies:

1: 121
2: 56
3: 11
4 or more (assume 4 for simplicity) : 8

Assuming each converted PERM takes exactly 2 numbers (ignoring the non US born kids for now), the multiple PERM factor is calculated as 1.57 from this sample. If we include the non US born kids, it seems closer to 1.65 (i.e. each successful I485 application will take approximately 1.65 people).

P.S. The multiple PERM factor comprises of demand destruction due to unclaimed PERMs as well as the anticipated family size of 2.125.

I had mentioned this as one of the reason for my assumption of aggressive DD. Spec's opinion was that data is too small to draw any concrete conclusion. And I agree with that. But it's a good indicative data I believe.

[Spectator]

I had mentioned this as one of the reason for my assumption of aggressive DD. Spec's opinion was that data is too small to draw any concrete conclusion. And I agree with that. But it's a good indicative data I believe.

suninphx,

I still have reservations, but I agree it is indicative, within quite large bounds. I believe such a poll is likely to overstate the numbers, especially when the response numbers are low.

Yes, it does represent approximately 23% demand destruction due to multiple PERMs alone. It depends upon one's perspective to determine if it's too aggressive. I think we should continue assuming 20% destruction as a conservative figure (and 25% as a high end optimistic figure).

sportsfan33,

I am not entirely sure how you arrive at your figures, but here's how I look at it.

The data from the non-immigrant blog in your previous post shows 196 respondents have 298 PERM between them.

That is an overall ratio of 1.52 PERM per person.

Cases remaining would be 1 / 1.52 = 0.658 or 65.8%.

The DD would be 100% - 65.8% = 34.2% for multiple PERM.

To put that into perspective, Teddy's current figures allow for 37.3% total DD, which gives an OR of 0.8.

If you made the DD say 44%, it would mean an OR of 0.714 - about 3k less cases up to the present Cut Off Date of 01JAN09.

[imdeng]

Are we expecting the demand data in Jan first week? I guess it was not released in Dec since it would not have had anything to show.

BTW - the Mumbai consulate has been ahead of the curve in releasing VB for past couple months. Looking forward to those guys breaking good news again.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant,

I noticed one EB2I case approval updated on trackitt with RD 10/14/2011.

Nishant, Veni & All following are the current approvals of Oct Filers on Trackitt, finally new 485 approvals have started.
Starchaser, Abracadabra - NSC PWMB
Superman123 (Spouse only) - TSC
I believe that the approvals especially for Oct filers should pick up next month once fresh numbers for the next quarter are being allocated and current time being holiday season a lot of people maybe on vacation (Its noteworthy that EAD / AP approvals are coming fast). There have been atleast 10K approvals for the Jul 2007 / Pre Oct 01 filers this year. On Trackitt there are a good number of PWMB cases from Aug that have seen approvals. The Oct filers count should be between 2.5 – 3K hopefully most of them will get approved next month; even RD / ND will be significant besides PD.