EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vedu]

I-140 receipts (total 31697) during Jun, 2011 to October, 2011 are significantly less as compared to the receipts (total 39758) during Jun, 2010 to October, 2010. If we consider 4 months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in I-140 receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

[Spectator]

Disclaimer: Wishful thinking ahead!

I agree with you that IC will need to be made current for at least a couple of months if 3012 becomes law. I dont see any other way that CO can get till April or May 2012 the number of applications needed to satisfy IC's FY2012 quota (visa numbers allotted to those applications by Sep 30, 2012).

But wait.... there IS another way.

(Disclaimer: HORRENDOUS Wishful thinking ahead!)

And that's what CO is already doing... moving VB as fast as he can without getting fired. If this continues for the next few months, CO may get enough number of applications to even satisfy IC's FY2012 quota when 3012 passes.

Hopefully some wizards/gurus here will rip the above apart and bring me back to reality.

That apart... don't forget to do what you can to push for HR 3102's success.

manubhai,

I disagree.

Even with a very aggressive assumption for DD, the movement to 01-JAN-09 is probably enough for even the theoretical maximum numbers. That won't be possible anyway, because ROW-M-P will probably have already used more than the 15% allowance.

Any further movement in the February VB will guarantee sufficient numbers for EB2-IC can be approved within FY2012.

Aside from that, CO can move Cut Off Dates as late as the April/May VB and the cases are likely to be documentarily qualified by the end of September.

Like others, I don't think the movement has anything to do with any pending legislation. As with F2A, CO is moving the COD as far forward as possible (within reason) for as long as he has the opportunity to do so.

[gkjppp]

manubhai,

I disagree.

Even with a very aggressive assumption for DD, the movement to 01-JAN-09 is probably enough for even the theoretical maximum numbers. That won't be possible anyway, because ROW-M-P will probably have already used more than the 15% allowance.

Any further movement in the February VB will guarantee sufficient numbers for EB2-IC can be approved within FY2012.

Aside from that, CO can move Cut Off Dates as late as the April/May VB and the cases are likely to be documentarily qualified by the end of September.

Like others, I don't think the movement has anything to do with any pending legislation. As with F2A, CO is moving the COD as far forward as possible (within reason) for as long as he has the opportunity to do so.

Gurus/Members

1.I have no clue on what logic Mr.CO moving dates, per Dec demnad data, we had around 150+ EB2 pending cases < Dec bulletin which moved 3.5 months and then Jan 9.5 months approx 2k per month= 21K( we know 26k perms for year 2008 and DD around 38% this comes 16k + eb3 to eb2 porting 5k> per Guru's sofad for 2012 is around 20k in that 8k being used so 21-12=9k. as you said theoritically CO already stretched for 4 more months to be in waiting list and no need to move dates any more.I am not sure SOFAD numbers 12k are still available or already used(please correct me here).

2.whats trend? how many numbers used to be in pipe line to allocate visanumbers ?

3.if CO think 40 to 50 k to be ideal number to keep in pipe line, he can move further till end of Dec 2009/Apr2010 . which gives < for 2009 16k*DD <.38>=10k*2.1=21k+9k(carryforward from 1)=30k+<eb3 to eb2 upgrades around >+5k a year=35k. if CO includes first 4 months of 2010 till April it will be 1200*2.1*4=10k+1600<eb3 to eb2>=12k Total backlog= 50k(approx ).

4.2013 Sofad may be close to 20k(based on yearly trend) so by Oct 2012 , if CO goes with pipe line of 20k, he can push for next 3 months i.e till apr1st 2009 and can make backlog to 0 by 2013 year. else if CO likes to keep pipeline of 20 k for next year he can push till 1st May 2010 in next 2 to 3 bulletins and stall there till next oct/nov 2012.<this is most unlikely, unless USCIS think of generating funds>. rather he may push further 3 months till apr 2009 and stall there till next year spillover time.

5.Whatever ,I think dates has to move to 1st quarter of 2010 by Jan 2012 bulletin.

This is very tricky, no straightforward assumptions or math in it. Demand data gives us more input, i feel we might not get DD for next month either because of holiday season and huge 9.5 months movement, if at all we get, we may get it just for Dec 2011.

let me know if above lines make any sense? i have 0 knolwedge in Visa numbers, i appreciate members inputs on this.

[BBear123]

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

I-485 monthly receipts look pretty steady. Nov, Dec, data would be interesting to see how it affected visa bulletins.

[Feb262009]

Hi Spec,
Can you please explain how to read this data? I don't understand how interpret the chart.

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

[veni001]

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

Thank you Spec

I-485 monthly receipts look pretty steady. Nov, Dec, data would be interesting to see how it affected visa bulletins.

BBear123,
Very good observation.

Hi Spec,
Can you please explain how to read this data? I don't understand how interpret the chart.

A quick look at the data shows that I140 and i-485 receipts are steady for the last 6 months.

But when compared PERM certification data to i140 receipts data shows significant increase in EB1 filings!


P.S: The trending is almost same even after considering 2 month lag between PERM certification and i140 receipt.

[Spectator]

Gurus/Members

1.I have no clue on what logic Mr.CO moving dates, per Dec demnad data, we had around 150+ EB2 pending cases < Dec bulletin which moved 3.5 months and then Jan 9.5 months approx 2k per month= 21K( we know 26k perms for year 2008 and DD around 38% this comes 16k + eb3 to eb2 porting 5k> per Guru's sofad for 2012 is around 20k in that 8k being used so 21-12=9k. as you said theoritically CO already stretched for 4 more months to be in waiting list and no need to move dates any more.I am not sure SOFAD numbers 12k are still available or already used(please correct me here).

2.whats trend? how many numbers used to be in pipe line to allocate visanumbers ?

3.if CO think 40 to 50 k to be ideal number to keep in pipe line, he can move further till end of Dec 2009/Apr2010 . which gives < for 2009 16k*DD <.38>=10k*2.1=21k+9k(carryforward from 1)=30k+<eb3 to eb2 upgrades around >+5k a year=35k. if CO includes first 4 months of 2010 till April it will be 1200*2.1*4=10k+1600<eb3 to eb2>=12k Total backlog= 50k(approx ).

4.2013 Sofad may be close to 20k(based on yearly trend) so by Oct 2012 , if CO goes with pipe line of 20k, he can push for next 3 months i.e till apr1st 2009 and can make backlog to 0 by 2013 year. else if CO likes to keep pipeline of 20 k for next year he can push till 1st May 2010 in next 2 to 3 bulletins and stall there till next oct/nov 2012.<this is most unlikely, unless USCIS think of generating funds>. rather he may push further 3 months till apr 2009 and stall there till next year spillover time.

5.Whatever ,I think dates has to move to 1st quarter of 2010 by Jan 2012 bulletin.

This is very tricky, no straightforward assumptions or math in it. Demand data gives us more input, i feel we might not get DD for next month either because of holiday season and huge 9.5 months movement, if at all we get, we may get it just for Dec 2011.

let me know if above lines make any sense? i have 0 knolwedge in Visa numbers, i appreciate members inputs on this.

gkjppp,

There are some misconceptions in your post.

I think most people think 25k SOFAD is more likely than 20k.

DD is only part of the conversion from PERM numbers to I-485 numbers. Before that is calculating the Transformation Factor.

I think you are using Teddy's figures of 75% EB2, 80% I-140 Approval Rate and 2.125 Dependents. That gives a TF of 1.275.

Demand Destruction of 38% (37.3% to be accurate) gives an Overall Ratio of 0.8. That is the figure to multiply the PERM by.

2008 has 27.7k IC PERM, so that converts to about 22.1k I-485.

Using an OR of 0.8 and excluding any other factors like Porting or extra cases from FY2011, 40k reaches a Cut Off Date of 22-NOV-08 and 50k reaches a Cut Off Date of 15-JUN-09.

To reach a COD of 01-JAN-10 would require 57.3k and for COD of 01-MAY-10 it needs 61.8k.

The Current COD in the January VB of 01-JAN-09 translates to 42.3k using the above assumptions.

Hope that helps.

[priyesh]

Gurus,

One question. My PD is April 08 2008.

How does USCIS process the AOS application? Is it first come first served basis within a month or is it priority date basis? Being holiday season, my lawyers wouldn't be able to send my application by 1st Jan. It may go out around 10th Jan. Does that make a big impact on when I get my GC ?

[manubhai]

manubhai,

I disagree.

Even with a very aggressive assumption for DD, the movement to 01-JAN-09 is probably enough for even the theoretical maximum numbers. That won't be possible anyway, because ROW-M-P will probably have already used more than the 15% allowance.

Any further movement in the February VB will guarantee sufficient numbers for EB2-IC can be approved within FY2012.

Aside from that, CO can move Cut Off Dates as late as the April/May VB and the cases are likely to be documentarily qualified by the end of September.

Like others, I don't think the movement has anything to do with any pending legislation. As with F2A, CO is moving the COD as far forward as possible (within reason) for as long as he has the opportunity to do so.

Spec,
I hate it when people disagree with me. Especially when they do that with sound logical analysis. I just hope (wish?) you are dead wrong. Other than that, you are probably absolutely correct.

[veni001]

Gurus,

One question. My PD is April 08 2008.

How does USCIS process the AOS application? Is it first come first served basis within a month or is it priority date basis? Being holiday season, my lawyers wouldn't be able to send my application by 1st Jan. It may go out around 10th Jan. Does that make a big impact on when I get my GC ?

priyesh,

Applications are being processed in the order of receipt.

VISA allocation will be based on PD within the processed applications(documentarily qualified)

[Spectator]

Spec,
I hate it when people disagree with me. Especially when they do that with sound logical analysis. I just hope (wish?) you are dead wrong. Other than that, you are probably absolutely correct.

manubhai,

Loved your dry reply!

Sorry I was not able to have given you a more agreeable answer.

[nathang]

gkjppp,

There are some misconceptions in your post.

I think most people think 25k SOFAD is more likely than 20k.

DD is only part of the conversion from PERM numbers to I-485 numbers. Before that is calculating the Transformation Factor.

I think you are using Teddy's figures of 75% EB2, 80% I-140 Approval Rate and 2.125 Dependents. That gives a TF of 1.275.

Demand Destruction of 38% (37.3% to be accurate) gives an Overall Ratio of 0.8. That is the figure to multiply the PERM by.

2008 has 27.7k IC PERM, so that converts to about 22.1k I-485.

Using an OR of 0.8 and excluding any other factors like Porting or extra cases from FY2011, 40k reaches a Cut Off Date of 22-NOV-08 and 50k reaches a Cut Off Date of 15-JUN-09.

To reach a COD of 01-JAN-10 would require 57.3k and for COD of 01-MAY-10 it needs 61.8k.

The Current COD in the January VB of 01-JAN-09 translates to 42.3k using the above assumptions.

Hope that helps.

Thanks for the post. And thanks for your perm breakdown which saves hours of work and effort that I was expecting to spend .

From the perm breakdown data that you posted:

Jan 2007 to Dec 2007 (perm approved after Aug 17): 15,360
Jan 2008 to Dec 2008: 27,715
Jan 2009 to June 2009: 10,416
Jan 2009 to Dec 2009: 18,789

Total from Jan 2007 to Dec 2008: 43,075
Total from Jan 2007 to June 2009: 53,491
Total from Jan2007 to Dec 2009: 61,864

With a OR of 0.8 as the perm to 485:

Till Dec 2008: 0.8 * 43075 = 34,460
Till June 2009: 0.8 * 53491 = 42,792
Till Dec 2009: 0.8 * 61864 = 49491

So with these numbers, shouldn't 40k reach somewhere in April 2009 and 50k will be around Dec 2009? You had mentioned 40k is till nov 2008 and 50k till 15-jun-09. Am I missing something?

[BBear123]

Thanks for the post. And thanks for your perm breakdown which saves hours of work and effort that I was expecting to spend .

From the perm breakdown data that you posted:

Jan 2007 to Dec 2007 (perm approved after Aug 17): 15,360
Jan 2008 to Dec 2008: 27,715
Jan 2009 to June 2009: 10,416
Jan 2009 to Dec 2009: 18,789

Total from Jan 2007 to Dec 2008: 43,075
Total from Jan 2007 to June 2009: 53,491
Total from Jan2007 to Dec 2009: 61,864

With a OR of 0.8 as the perm to 485:

Till Dec 2008: 0.8 * 43075 = 34,460
Till June 2009: 0.8 * 53491 = 42,792
Till Dec 2009: 0.8 * 61864 = 49491

So with these numbers, shouldn't 40k reach somewhere in April 2009 and 50k will be around Dec 2009? You had mentioned 40k is till nov 2008 and 50k till 15-jun-09. Am I missing something?

I think you are missing porting from EB3 to EB2 for one thing.

[vishnu]

but porting is already reflected via the perms, no?

[BBear123]

but porting is already reflected via the perms, no?

Most of the calculations that I have seen from this thread bring in porting as an independent quantity.

I think you could add a porting component to OR and calculate it via PERMs but if they recapture priority dates, it gets tricky to account for it.

[Spectator]

Thanks for the post. And thanks for your perm breakdown which saves hours of work and effort that I was expecting to spend .

From the perm breakdown data that you posted:

Jan 2007 to Dec 2007 (perm approved after Aug 17): 15,360
Jan 2008 to Dec 2008: 27,715
Jan 2009 to June 2009: 10,416
Jan 2009 to Dec 2009: 18,789

Total from Jan 2007 to Dec 2008: 43,075
Total from Jan 2007 to June 2009: 53,491
Total from Jan2007 to Dec 2009: 61,864

With a OR of 0.8 as the perm to 485:

Till Dec 2008: 0.8 * 43075 = 34,460
Till June 2009: 0.8 * 53491 = 42,792
Till Dec 2009: 0.8 * 61864 = 49491

So with these numbers, shouldn't 40k reach somewhere in April 2009 and 50k will be around Dec 2009? You had mentioned 40k is till nov 2008 and 50k till 15-jun-09. Am I missing something?

nathang,

I think you are not accounting for existing cases, which were reported at about 8k at the end of FY2011.

So a simple calculation would be:

Existing cases --------------------- 8,000 (looks like it is more than this)
New PD2007 cases (15,360 * 0.8) --- 12,288
New PD2008 cases (27,715 * 0.8) --- 22,172

Total to end of PD2008 ------------ 42,460
New Jan-Jun PD2009 cases ----------- 8,333

Total to end of June PD2009 cases - 50,793
New Jul-Dec PD2009 cases ----------- 6,698

Total to end of PD2009 ------------ 57,491

Hope that helps.

[Spectator]

but porting is already reflected via the perms, no?

Most of the calculations that I have seen from this thread bring in porting as an independent quantity.

I think you could add a porting component to OR and calculate it via PERMs but if they recapture priority dates, it gets tricky to account for it.

vishnu,

Yes, it is true that the EB2 for Porting will need a PERM, but it is likely that the PD of the EB2 would be in 2010 or 2011.

Therefore, up to then, a Porting case is extra and no significant reduction is required. Either the original EB3 PERM was pre April 15, 2007, or is not accounted for in the EB2:EB3 split.

It is a good point and I account for it in my model from 2010 onwards, when Porting really started to increase and some of the EB2 PERM were probably obtained for Porting of an earlier EB3 PD.

Earlier, the Transformation Factor was described as :

EB2% * I-140 Approval % * Dependent Ratio

I actually use :

TF = EB2% * I-140 Approval % * Dependent Ratio * (100% - % Porting Cases)

or alternatively to reach the final number of I-485 I could use :

((PERM * EB2%) - Assumed Porting EB2 PERM) * I-140 Approval % * Dependent Ratio * Demand Destruction

It may not be perfect, but I am aware of the issue and trying to allow for it. To date, I don't believe it is a significant factor, as Cut Off Dates have not moved into 2010.

[suninphx]

Thank you Spec



BBear123,
Very good observation.



A quick look at the data shows that I140 and i-485 receipts are steady for the last 6 months.

But when compared PERM certification data to i140 receipts data shows significant increase in EB1 filings!


P.S: The trending is almost same even after considering 2 month lag between PERM certification and i140 receipt.

For Oct 11 VB dates were moved 3 months. So we should see higher I485 receipts for that month(PWMBs)... but does not seem to be case..not sure if I am reading graph right.

[Spectator]

Spec

weren't those 8000 cases already approved ? ( cases upto july 31 2007 )

Mind voice :- Nobody is on my side to strengthen my theory of apr to july cases approved from 2011 quota visa numbers .

Kanmani,

The October Demand Data showed 8,075 EB2-IC cases still remaining as we started FY2012. The USCIS Inventory showed a figure of 8,225.

The PD2007 PERM figures quoted in the previous post are for cases that could not have been pre-existing, so they are in addition to the 8k pre-existing cases.

[suninphx]

Spec

Why can't I argue like this in a layman style ? Pls take it as a constructive argument.

Eventhough the October inventory says " data as on october 1 2011", there is a possibility that the data might have prepared during sept. We have already seen an inventory showing data as on June 2011, but having been unofficially released during may 2011.

Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011.

I had similar argument with Teddy few months back. For which he gave me detailed logical reply. I will try to locate that post. (While I am convinced with his logic - back of mind I have some hopes alive given the history of agencies involved. ). Meantime will wait for Spec's reply.

[Spectator]

Spec

Why can't I argue like this in a layman style ? Pls take it as a constructive argument.

Eventhough the October inventory says " data as on october 1 2011", there is a possibility that the data might have prepared during sept. We have already seen an inventory showing data as on June 2011, but having been unofficially released during may 2011.

Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011.

As suninphx says, this is a debate that we have already had. I have not seen any evidence that the numbers as presented are not correct, although feel free to hold a different opinion. The fact that approvals for EB were halted before the end of FY2011 lends credence to the fact that the numbers remained.

I don't quite understand what you are trying to say in this sentence:

Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011.

The Cut Off Date in the September 2011 VB was 15-APR-07, so PDs between April 15, 2007 to July 14,2007 could only be approved from October 1, 2011 when FY2012 started and the October VB came into effect with a Cut Off Date of 15JUL07.

Those numbers are part of the 8k.

To date, judging by Trackitt, well over 8k EB2-IC appear to have been approved and not a single Primary applicant has a PD later than July 31, 2007.

[suninphx]

To date, judging by Trackitt, well over 8k EB2-IC appear to have been approved and not a single Primary applicant has a PD later than July 31, 2007.

All these days I have seen people discussing number visa's per quarter has limit.(Don't know exact details). So has that limit been exceeded here?

[Kanmani]

Thanks Spec.

Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011

8K is shown in the Demand and inventory prior to its approval and they got approved after oct 2011. What I meant to say is 8K is already done so that we should exclude them from the total .

[tackle]

All these days I have seen people discussing number visa's per quarter has limit.(Don't know exact details). So has that limit been exceeded here?

I remember someone posted a link to an official document which indicated that if the "Demand" is low, per country limits should not be imposed. Considering the fact that the EB2-I/C demand is close to 0, I'd think that they are not imposing the per country limits. Am I mistaken?

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec.

Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011

8K is shown in the Demand and inventory prior to its approval and they got approved after oct 2011. What I meant to say is 8K is already done so that we should exclude them from the total .

Kanmani,

Maybe we are talking at cross purposes (and it wouldn't be the first time)!

If we exclude the 8k then sure we can say that a further x are required to reach a specific Cut Off Date from the date that 8k were used this year.

But the total needed in the entire year from October 1, 2011 to reach that Cut Off Date (SOFAD) would be 8k + x.

That is the figure I am quoting.

If you are saying that those 8k were approved from the FY2011 quota, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

I know this is something dear to your heart, so I won't push it further.

Enjoy your Holiday.