Kanmani,
I have 4 friends that I know about, details below:
1. Family of 2, both filed separately. PD Feb 2008
2. Family of 2, both filed separately. PD Mar 2008
3. Family of 2, Single filing. PD Mar 2008
4. Single Guy, Single filing, PD Mar 2008
Hope it helps
Originally Posted by Kanmani
From what mesan123, and cm9201 are saying and if it holds true for a large swath, there should be little demand destruction for 2008 and a large one in 2009-2010 when the newer PERMs to retain old priority dates were filed.
This seems at odds with what CO saw - not enough filings till March 2008.
Would husband and wife each having separate PERMs account for the low level of filings?
Mystery gets deeper and deeper....
Well my ex colleagues list goes like below
1. my ex colleagues around 70 + filed for PERM in early 2008 (all single PERMS) all got audited and approved this Mar 2011.one Perm. < all are pretty much applying for 485 next month,none moved out to different jobs either, all are married><head count approx 145,all other kids are citizens>
2. one friend in MN applied in EB3 in 2007 laid off later applied in EB3 in 2010 Jan and moved to different job and applied in EB2 in nov 2011. his wife also applied in EB3 2009.< head count 2, Multiple Perm, but does not affect EB2 pool>
3. one more family with 1 kid applied in EB2 , apr 2009 is PD. Single perm < head count 3>
4. ex collegue PD Aug 2008, wife is working on H1 but labor not applied.with 3 kids all citizens.one Perm.<head count 2>
5. one more family with PD Feb 2006, poor guy not applied for 485 during 2007 fiasco. himself+ his wife <head count 2>
5. ex colleague PD Dec 2008 , wife is working on H1. one Perm.
6. ex collegue PD Mar 2008 with wife, daughter is citizen. single Perm.
if i think of, i dont see much DD, quite intresting.
kd2008,
I wouldn't count until March2008 (Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).
I am not sure about USCIS/DOS/CO expectations, but there is no way that they can gauge demand coming-in for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file (before Jan’12 VB is out)
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
I dont know whether they are doing it or not doing it but there are many sophisticated tools available to project expected demand based on first 5 days demand.
Having said that most probably CO statement was based on data till Oct 30 2007.
suninphx,
Agree, on average it is taking a week to 10 days to generate receipts for the new applications delivered to lock-boxes.
I hope USCIS is using receipts in calculating new EB2IC485 demand.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Veni- even for demand till Oct 30 2007 being 'far below than expectation'...does it sound interesting? or may be its too early to infer anything from that statement.
most of my collegaues have mutiple perms inculding me(out of 10 people i know, 8 have mutiple perms and 2 have single fillings)...but i assume atleast 2010 and 2011 have mutiple approved perms which had porting of old dates from 2007 and 2008......if we assume same situation of previous years...can we assume atleast 15-20% of people have mutiple perms..if so how would it affect the DD?
I completely agree on their ability to gauge demand. Bear in mind the drastic movement probably caught a lot of people off guard as well.
Those forecasts would have a lot of variance though, especially considering the drastic advancement in dates.
Assuming you are talking about 'sophisticated tools' then as far as I know degree of variance can be controlled. All we need is quality data. And who else other than USCIS has quality data. ( In terms of I140 filings , eb2:eb3 percentage and lot more).
I am. As veni pointed out, the sample size is really small; 5 (perhaps 7) days of filing data. I am inclined to treat the data more suspiciously although you are right that the USCIS is the only entity with the data at this point.
Each their own
I am talking about forecasting tools. And those tools are not modeled using 5-7 days data. USCIS is doing this for years. So they have all type of data which can be modeled ( Ofcourse if they want to) - I am talking from that angle.I am. As veni pointed out, the sample size is really small; 5 (perhaps 7) days of filing data. I am inclined to treat the data more suspiciously although you are right that the USCIS is the only entity with the data at this point.
Each their own
Real question is whether they have/ want to use those tools.
PS: As far as my guess goes at least 65% people file in those first 5-7 days and by no means its small data sample IMO.
I understand how forecasting tools work. My last post on this, as I said before everyone has their own take on it.
Friends
Voting for December Charity is on. Please vote if you would like. We will donate at least $104 to a charity on Dec 31st.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6644#post16644
p.s. - My apologies for a short voting horizon of only 10 days.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
One more guys..
My husband has an Ammended LCA approved and certified by DOL for dates 2011-2014. Does this require an ammended I 129 petition also or an ammended LCA more than enough and we can retain the old petition itself?
This may very case to case. I would go by attorney's advice.
In any event, the I-485 applicant should not leave the country before the Receipt is received ( or atleast the cheque is encashed by the uscis) to avoid abondonment of the I-485 application.
Moderators please move these posts to the appropriate thread after the purpose is met.
Last edited by Kanmani; 12-21-2011 at 12:19 PM.
Guys what is the EVC model? Companies like Accenture, Deloitte etc are EVC(when you are an FTE and travel to client locantions) or typical examples of EVC are Desi consultants? How would you know that based on LCA/I 129
I have to get my H4 stamped. My husband works for an American consulting firm as a Full Time employee. Recently, he had an updated LCA. Does this prompt an ammended H1 B also?
I think premium processing is allowed if amended 140 is applied. But if you file amended 140 along with 485, then it is not allowed.
others please correct me if im wrong.
Not necessary. Recently my wife went for H4 stamping and it was successful. I changed client from the one I got my H1 extension to another one. We got updated LCA and no amendment etc..
Guys,
My feeling is that once HR3012 becomes law, the subsequent month visa bulletin EB2 dates will be current for all atleast for a months just to let every eligible candidate to file 485 and then it may retrogress to one common date for all countries. How many of you wizards agree with me. Your thoughts and insights will be helpful to me.
Thanks..
Hi Idiotic (love the name by the way) - love the optimism too that the bill will become law! I hope you are right.
Given the phase in, i think the full fledged first come first server, kicks in only from 2014. So they could still make it current for a month or so to get in apps, but it will still retrogress to a more favoriable date for ROW compared to IC.
In my opinion 'C' is just not happening. The issue is mainly people who have not applied I-140 as yet - once dates are C, they can all apply for 140+485 concurrently. That would mean that an EB2I with a 2012 PD might get GC before someone with 2008 PD. Instead of making it C, they can advance dates aggressively - like say Jan 2011 - that will give them enough applications while still maintaining some kind of order. After that the dates will just move to a single PD for the category.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Disclaimer: Wishful thinking ahead!
I agree with you that IC will need to be made current for at least a couple of months if 3012 becomes law. I dont see any other way that CO can get till April or May 2012 the number of applications needed to satisfy IC's FY2012 quota (visa numbers allotted to those applications by Sep 30, 2012).
But wait.... there IS another way.
(Disclaimer: HORRENDOUS Wishful thinking ahead!)
And that's what CO is already doing... moving VB as fast as he can without getting fired. If this continues for the next few months, CO may get enough number of applications to even satisfy IC's FY2012 quota when 3012 passes.
Hopefully some wizards/gurus here will rip the above apart and bring me back to reality.
That apart... don't forget to do what you can to push for HR 3102's success.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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