EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[murali83]

Guys,

I dont follow trackitt much, but I just saw a green card received update on trackitt for EB2-I with a PD of 25-Jul-2007. Is this the 1st card issuance for July that we are seeing, or am I missing something.

Murali

[imdeng]

Life happens Q - thats fine. I love this forum and I know this will continue to be a vibrant community thanks to the great work being done here every day.

On another note-imdeng - your point is well taken. But I do think Teddy Spec Veni active here. I see great activity on advocacy thread. If anything I am guilty of not contributing enough. Unfortunately my schedule has gotten uselessly busy. Hope one day I can come back with full force. A few things are in the works but we will see..

[veni001]

Veni, if I apply amended 140 along with AOS application, will that delay getting a visa number. My PD is dec2007. Premiium processing not allowed for 140 amendments.

thanks,

dec2007,
In most cases should not delay the time to get VISA number assigned.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Around 48- 50K without porting till Dec 2009. I have overall ratio of 0.72 - 0.75. Aggressive DD is based on some qualitative evidence

1) PD moved 8.5 months in last bulletin and trackitt was remarkably silent. On previous occasion a movement of 3-4 months used to create buzz on trackitt with posts like ' i am current etc'. May be people were busy discussing HR3012. But it’s hard to believe that people did not find time to post a single liner like 'yay I am current etc'. May be people are busy preparing documents ...but again its hard to believe for me that people did not find time to post a single liner.

2) There have been few polls including one on our site which show several multiple PERM filings. The one on CM's site has as many as 55 out of 159 voted. Now there may be people who were able to capture old PD but I guess is that percentage is less.


3) I opened radomly few 2008 cases on trackitt for which PERM has been approved. I wanted to see if those guys have updated H1 extn status etc. That way I wanted to determine if they are active. Saw serveral cases with no recent updates..multiple PERMS and such. Now there is possibility that people have got tired or lost interest in trackitt etc. But unless otherwise proven I wanted to use statistics to my advantage.

4) If transformation ratio was 1 for a period where people had EAD cushion ...then I believe that it will be below 1 post Jul 2007. As we get more and more data picture will be clearer.


So that’s my take on numbers. It may be right or may be wrong. I don’t worry much about that part...but giving an attempt was more important for me

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing and explaining the rationale.

Running your figures against the PERM numbers gave an OR of 0.65 - 0.68 to reach 48 - 50k by the end of December 2009. That was without adding any cases flowing through from FY2011. I might add 1.5k for those.

Although that is a pretty aggressive OR, I don't think it is too way out - in fact it is fairly close to the best case scenario I am running.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing and explaining the rationale.

Running your figures against the PERM numbers gave an OR of 0.65 - 0.68 to reach 48 - 50k by the end of December 2009. That was without adding any cases flowing through from FY2011. I might add 1.5k for those.

Although that is a pretty aggressive OR, I don't think it is too way out - in fact it is fairly close to the best case scenario I am running.

Spec,

Thanks for feedback. Good to know its near your best case scenario. Hope that scenario becomes reality.

[gkjppp]

Came across this report.

Thought this may be of some help in calculations. It only includes numbers from CP demand and not AOS.

Please remove it it has been posted before or not of much use.

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

Interesting thing is EB-5 category where so many from Mainland China are waiting.

Also, would appreciate comments from Gurus on this theory of re-calibrated EB2IC PD movement.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...s-fy-2012.html

Johnty, retro seems worst in the http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...s-fy-2012.html , i dont think it may go back to 2006/2007. for me Jun 2012 to Dec 2012 predictions might not be possible at all. most of Jul 2007 guys already started getting Visa's and with Spillover it may clear backlog anywhere between Dec 2007 to Mar 2008, as per current trend between oct 2012 to Mar 2013, CO needs to build pipe line for next year SOFAD. Hope Guru's can comment on this.

[Reddy001]

Hi,

I'm in a situation where my wife had to travel to India after biometrics for family emergency. One mistake we did was we didnt check with our company lawyer.

I have contacted my lawyer yesterday, he said that there is this emergency/Expedited AP where you can get in couple of days. I confirmed the same calling USCIS.
Please check with attorney on this.

Now we are planning to get back my wife on H4 before the 485 approval, after which my H1 and her H4 would be cancelled.

Jan2008,

Thanks for the caution. But from what I've read and learnt, it is not considered abandoned. I believe Gurus here will chime in to clearify.

I sent a paid question to LawBench, just to be sure.

Thanks

[Kanmani]

Spec my theory is totally different and take it as third opinion

Minimum Demand Destruction --- 38%
Optimal Demand Destruction ---- 45%

multiple perms 28%
As per our data collection in this forum 14 out of 49 have 2 or more perms. Every perm has potential two I-485s ( for easy calculation 3 people per perm is not considered) .So 14 /50 are spare perms which extrapolates 28% of the total perms are spare.
Suninphx has 55/159 from CM poll which signal even more higher spares around 35%

Abandonment 10%
My thoery of Abandonment of perms are from people pulled back by the MNCs themselves during recession

[gkjppp]

It appears that while we don't know how far the priority dates go, they will definately retrogess at some point.Based on what happened with PWMB, can Guru's please clarify what happens when dates retrogess? e.g. Feb bulletin progresses dates to Dec 2009(wishful thinking,of course).Then dates don't move in March bulletin at all. Then in April bulletin, dates retrogress to July 2008. In this case, what happens to the people with PD between July 2008 to Dec 2009 who have already applied for the AOS before the April bulletin was released? Do they get EADs?Do they get APs?Also, how specifically is cut-off for applications set by USCIS in this situation?

whoever applied will get EAD and AP for sure. they need to wait for available visa numbers only for GC. correct me if i am wrong.

[Sandeep2011]

Gurus,

I am not sure if we discussed this before. I have not seen any demand data being released in December 2011. On USCIS site, the last updated demand data is from November. Has anyone been able to find out demand data for December (one that should have been released in first/second week of December)?

[Spectator]

Spec my theory is totally different and take it as third opinion

Demand Destruction --- 38%

multiple perms 28%
As per our data collection in this forum 14 out of 49 have 2 or more perms. Every perm has potential two I-485s ( for easy calculation 3 people per perm is not considered) .So 14 /50 are spare perms which extrapolates 28% of the total perms are spare.
(Suninphx has 55/159 from CM poll which signal even more higher spares)

Abandonment 10%
My thoery of Abandonment of perms are from people pulled back by the MNCs themselves during recession

Kanmani,

Thanks for your comments.

I agree that multiple PERM might account for the greater amount of DD.

I have been following both the thread here and I have also seen the CM calculations.

It's difficult to reach a conclusion on the effect, because the poll numbers are so low.

[MeraNoAayega]

Gurus,

I am not sure if we discussed this before. I have not seen any demand data being released in December 2011. On USCIS site, the last updated demand data is from November. Has anyone been able to find out demand data for December (one that should have been released in first/second week of December)?

Its not mandatory for the DOS to publish demand data for every month. They have not published it before. The DOS did not publish the demand data that is used to calculate dates for Jan 2012 & I for one don't think they will publish one for Feb 2012.

[Kanmani]

Spec

Out of the immigrant population few hundreds are reading the attorney forums and other immigration related forums and in specific very few are participating in discussions and polls . I firmly believe that this poll if taken in large population would result in the same way as I have concluded.

[gkjppp]

Spec

Out of the immigrant population few hundreds are reading the attorney forums and other immigration related forums and in specific very few are participating in discussions and polls . I firmly believe that this poll if taken in large population would result in the same way as I have concluded.

Guru's, Can someone analyze EB2IC movements for next year i.e Feb 2012 to Jan 2013? Lets go with 38% DD and 75:25 EB2:EB3 ratio

[codesmith]

Spec

Out of the immigrant population few hundreds are reading the attorney forums and other immigration related forums and in specific very few are participating in discussions and polls . I firmly believe that this poll if taken in large population would result in the same way as I have concluded.

Hi Kanmani,
can you add "correction factor" to the minimum and maximum percentages of multiple perms ? 28% and 35% looks bit bigger.. again without having a large number of sampling it's difficult to come up with a number, so just to be more conservative or when considering large number sample we may not see this much multiple perms.
Do you think 15% multiple perms + 10% is closer/practical ?

[krishnav]

Hi All,

Can anyone tell me what was the latest PD for which a GC was approved. Just trying to figure out if at all any Retrogression happens, what could be the possible date as my PD is in Sept 2007.

Thanks.

[codesmith]

Codesmith

I hesitate to come down below 25% for multiple perms.

Q forum cluster map shows our members and visitors are residing all around USA. If possible we can try asking our friends (atleast 10) for multiple perm data which would help us widening the horizon.

Members and visitors all are welcome. Pls comeup with some information.

Thanks Kanmani,
I think its a good idea to come up with large sample, I know about 8-10 guys who filed after Jan 2008 and all are primary applicants and filed with one perm.

The percentage of multiple perms in a family may be 15 to 20%, since it was little difficult after 2008 to file for H1. So I don't think there would be more than 20% multiple perms from a single family.
The other category of multiple perms after 2008 may not be high.

[vizcard]

whoever applied will get EAD and AP for sure. they need to wait for available visa numbers only for GC. correct me if i am wrong.

Yes. Assuming you have applied for it.

[kabphx]

Codesmith

I hesitate to come down below 25% for multiple perms.

Q forum cluster map shows our members and visitors are residing all around USA. If possible we can try asking our friends (atleast 10) for multiple perm data which would help us widening the horizon.

Members and visitors all are welcome. Pls comeup with some information.

Couple of things to note Post July07.

There was a pattern started around July 2007 for PERM for EB2. The amount of Audits went up crazy for EB2 asking for more specific details why Masters is required for the said position. The average response time for these audits were 12+ months. During this time (Aug 07- May 08 )there were many lawyers who had advised many saying that its better to file under EB3 as the turnout is lot quicker. I know many of my friends who had 5+ years or experience and also had masters filing for their PERM under EB3. The idea behind that was you can get your EB3 PERM apply for I-140 and get the required Extension to stay and work.

So the ratio of EB2 to EB3 is not 75:25 but i would put it at 60:40 on the higher side.


Talking about Demand Destruction. My initial PD was Oct 2007 and i got audited we replied back in Dec 2007 and my PERM was approved only in Nov 2008 at that time i had to change jobs and i refiled for PERM with the new employer on Apr2009. I was fully active in Trackit at that time 90% of the EB2I cases were under audit. You can check the avg approval time during that time in Trackit if they still have the data it would be very high. Also taking from the above point re-filing of PERM could cause the DD% to be on the higher side.
So the DD% of 20-25% could be understandable.

So +1 me who had multiple PERMs

[codesmith]

Couple of things to note Post July07.

There was a pattern started around July 2007 for PERM for EB2. The amount of Audits went up crazy for EB2 asking for more specific details why Masters is required for the said position. The average response time for these audits were 12+ months.
So the ratio of EB2 to EB3 is not 75:25 but i would put it at 60:40 on the higher side.
So +1 me who had multiple PERMs

Kab,
Interesting points, but it may be possible that the ration of Eb3:Eb2 (60:40 ) may be during the phase of post jul 07- 08 and again from 09 or may be 2010 onward
the ratio is 75:25.
that time 90% of the EB2I cases were under audit.- So, again during post jul07 to 08 we may have multiple perms than we may not see it in 09 and 10.

[kabphx]

Kab,
Interesting points, but it may be possible that the ration of Eb3:Eb2 (60:40 ) may be during the phase of post jul 07- 08 and again from 09 or may be 2010 onward
the ratio is 75:25.
that time 90% of the EB2I cases were under audit.- So, again during post jul07 to 08 we may have multiple perms than we may not see it in 09 and 10.

Yes True.. I was talking specifically about 07 and 08.
CO may not see the higher filings for Jan as well and i am expecting movement. I agree with Sports theory totally.

2009 and 2010 is a different ballgame and % of audits have gone down drastically. So as the number of EB2I.

The Scenarios have been changing per year and we cannot stick one simple calculation and apply to all the years. Just my 2cents.

[iatiam]

Why do u think audits went down. Economy was even worse in 2009 and 2010.

[Pdmar08]

Its not mandatory for the DOS to publish demand data for every month. They have not published it before. The DOS did not publish the demand data that is used to calculate dates for Jan 2012 & I for one don't think they will publish one for Feb 2012.

Pondering over this a bit.
Could this be an intentional action? Not releaseing demand data i mean.
The last one showed close to 0 demandfor EB2IC. Could it be because DOS didnt want to raise a storm by showing zeros. Not sure what the run rate is for preadjudication in a month, it might not necessarily be zero.

[mesan123]

Hi Kanmani..

I can give u some input...i have 3 friends...they each have 2 perms(they filled in EB2, i mean no porting). they are current now as there initial perm dates were 2008

Codesmith

I hesitate to come down below 25% for multiple perms.

Q forum cluster map shows our members and visitors are residing all around USA. If possible we can try asking our friends (atleast 10) for multiple perm data which would help us widening the horizon.

Members and visitors all are welcome. Pls comeup with some information.

[cm9201]

I have 2 perms, my brother have 3 perms(changed jobs with porting date). I have few friends who moved jobs and got new perms and all we are current now.