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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #3101
    I like your optimism especially when my pd is feb 26, 2009.

    Your Receipt number should be fine. Since they check your legal presence and staying with Receipt number during the H1B extension is legal. What I am not sure is, is it upto 180 days or 240 days.

    Quote Originally Posted by manzoorraza View Post
    Guys,
    Am a great fan and have been an ardent follower for a few months now. Would like to thank all who have contributed to this and made life easier for rest of us. Finally decided to join the party with a question I have.
    I have a PD of 5/1/09 and have my H1 renewal pending (applied late - recepit date 8/29/11). Looks like there is a decent possibility that my date could get current in the Feb (hopefully) or March Visa Bulletin. Just wanted to know if I need to have the approval on renewal to be able to file 485 just in case the date gets current. Dont want to miss the opportunity to get an AP, if I can, as have not been able to visit saadi dilli (our delhi) for 4 years now..sic. Am contemplating going premium if I have to but dont want to attract the EXTRA attention to the renewal if I don't need to.
    I tried looking through some relevant threads but couldn't find an answer. Would appreciate if one of the more knowledgeable ones can help me out here. Using this thread just because of the high visibility and apologies in advance for doing so.
    Thanks
    Manzoor
    This is just my opinion. I am not an attorney. Pls consult with your attorney.

  2. #3102
    Feb262009,
    Thanks for the response and goodluck to you too. I think the period is 240 days and am pretty sure I will get some sort of answer before that elapses.
    After what happened Jan visa bulletin, nothing seems to be too radical to expect. I just don't wanna be caught with my pants down if and when it comes down to it. Any immigration related documentation is like a condom.....better to have it and not need it rather than need it and not have it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Feb262009 View Post
    I like your optimism especially when my pd is feb 26, 2009.

    Your Receipt number should be fine. Since they check your legal presence and staying with Receipt number during the H1B extension is legal. What I am not sure is, is it upto 180 days or 240 days.

  3. #3103
    Quote Originally Posted by dec2007 View Post
    Nishanth,

    What is your guess on receiving GC in this year's quota? now the dates moved to jan 09, i guess retrogression might not be as bad we predicted (aug 07). do you agree.

    with pd of dec 2007, trying to understand when we can expect gc. few decisions need to be made at personal level.

    thanks,
    If indeed demand gathered is low due to demand destruction, then 2007 will be cleared in this FY.

    Retrogression you are correct in assuming around worst case of August 2007. It will only happen if the demand starts creeping up to a level which QSP cannot pacify. The point to which to retrogress will also be based on QSP available and demand getting ready.

    For example, Q2 starts in January. If CO is able to have 7k QSP, and the Nov VB batch, which is from July 15th 2007 to Nov 1st 2007 (3.5 months) starts getting demand ready in this Q2, assuming around 8k demand coming from that intermittently, the 7k should be just enough to satisfy this batch whilst 1k would show up in Demand data at some point, but by that time, the next batch would be getting ripe intermittently and new QSP might be available.. This 1k should not cause panic bells to CO. But suppose, he can only project / allocate 5k QSP in Q2, then he would retrogress to say October 1st 2007, and 3k around would show up in demand data. Just thinking aloud here, not saying these are actual numbers etc. I am not sure how CO does QSP allocations, in Q1 he clearly has done that on a monthly basis. Also if Q1 he has done QSP and not the entire annual allocation of 5.6k he would still have that annual allocation up his sleeve.
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  4. #3104
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    Quote Originally Posted by gc2008 View Post
    Thanks KD2008 for your response. Any other responses would be appreciated. Please let me know I am nervous
    You need to put your current job title. They really don't expect your title to stay the same from when you filed PERM several years back. I know mine has changed and so have the roles as I've got promotions along the way. That won't impact the application as green card is for future employment.

  5. #3105
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    If indeed demand gathered is low due to demand destruction, then 2007 will be cleared in this FY.

    Retrogression you are correct in assuming around worst case of August 2007. It will only happen if the demand starts creeping up to a level which QSP cannot pacify. The point to which to retrogress will also be based on QSP available and demand getting ready.

    For example, Q2 starts in January. If CO is able to have 7k QSP, and the Nov VB batch, which is from July 15th 2007 to Nov 1st 2007 (3.5 months) starts getting demand ready in this Q2, assuming around 8k demand coming from that intermittently, the 7k should be just enough to satisfy this batch whilst 1k would show up in Demand data at some point, but by that time, the next batch would be getting ripe intermittently and new QSP might be available.. This 1k should not cause panic bells to CO. But suppose, he can only project / allocate 5k QSP in Q2, then he would retrogress to say October 1st 2007, and 3k around would show up in demand data. Just thinking aloud here, not saying these are actual numbers etc. I am not sure how CO does QSP allocations, in Q1 he clearly has done that on a monthly basis. Also if Q1 he has done QSP and not the entire annual allocation of 5.6k he would still have that annual allocation up his sleeve.
    Thanks for a detailed answer.

  6. #3106

    Don't want to file I-485 now, any issues?

    I became current in last bulletin. However, I am currently single and going through matrimonial process. So I want to delay filing my i-485 to avoid any issues later on if I-485 is approved before I get married. I am thinking of a scenario described below, do any of gurus see any issues/downside with it?

    What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

    if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

    really appreciate any answer and help.

    Thanks.
    PD: 08/25/2008 EB2I

  7. #3107
    Its a solid plan. Even if dates retrogress in Feb VB, you have until Jan 31st to file 485. You can file any time up to the time when a retrogressed PD becomes effective - there is no expiration.
    Quote Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25 View Post
    What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

    if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

    really appreciate any answer and help.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  8. #3108
    Quote Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25 View Post
    I became current in last bulletin. However, I am currently single and going through matrimonial process. So I want to delay filing my i-485 to avoid any issues later on if I-485 is approved before I get married. I am thinking of a scenario described below, do any of gurus see any issues/downside with it?

    What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

    if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

    really appreciate any answer and help.

    Thanks.
    Marry in court now and get the marriage certificate and file now while you're current along with your wife assuming you have found a girl.

    Ceremonies can be held later. IMO. If you haven't found a girl, you can delay.

  9. #3109
    You will have until Jan-31, if dates retrogress. But even if retrogresses your PD will be current again next FY hopefully.



    Quote Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25 View Post
    I became current in last bulletin. However, I am currently single and going through matrimonial process. So I want to delay filing my i-485 to avoid any issues later on if I-485 is approved before I get married. I am thinking of a scenario described below, do any of gurus see any issues/downside with it?

    What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

    if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

    really appreciate any answer and help.

    Thanks.

  10. #3110
    Deleted since already answered

  11. #3111
    Quote Originally Posted by smuggymba View Post
    Marry in court now and get the marriage certificate and file now while you're current along with your wife assuming you have found a girl.

    Ceremonies can be held later. IMO. If you haven't found a girl, you can delay.
    Quote Originally Posted by mygctracker View Post
    You will have until Jan-31, if dates retrogress. But even if retrogresses your PD will be current again next FY hopefully.
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Its a solid plan. Even if dates retrogress in Feb VB, you have until Jan 31st to file 485. You can file any time up to the time when a retrogressed PD becomes effective - there is no expiration.
    Thanks imdeng, mygctracker and smuggymba for answers. I haven't found the girl yet, which is turning out to be very difficult.

    I was not hoping to face this weird situation for at least one more year, but sudden movement of PD changed everything.

    I will keep defering application for i-485 until it retrogresses or I get married.

    If I just get marriage certificate, won't it arouse suspicion related to visa fraud?
    PD: 08/25/2008 EB2I

  12. #3112
    My wife had the same situation ,I requested my company to file H4 Visa and My attorney rejected saying she will be covered under AOS based on I485 receipt number ( it seems they don’t want to waste money for H4visa).
    I raised the same concern whatever you have presented here and I am waiting for the response from my company attorney. I will update you if i hear anything from them.

    Any ways lets wait for the Inputs from our Experts.

    Quote Originally Posted by memk26 View Post
    Hello Experts...
    Sorry for posting unrelated question to this thread.
    I have filed my H1 ext in Nov11 which was expire in Nov11 itself , I also filed I485 in Oct11 and still waiting on EAD/AP .currently I am working based on H1b receipts.
    Question is once I get EAD and if I withdraw my H1 ext petition and start using EAD immidialtely will I be considered as out of status(not suppossed to work)for the period (Between h1 expired date and EAD start date) since I am withdrawing the case?
    Just don't want to deal with RFE and visa stamp and site visit etc..

    Want to know your thought ,any reply would be highly appreaciated.
    Thank you

  13. #3113
    Hi Guys,
    I was wondering if somebody can answer my previous question about my wife having a different A number compared to her previous A number on OPT EAD card... please... i appreciate the help (please feel free to remove the post from this thread)
    But on a 2nd note, all our receipts are in order LIN *******219 to 224, can we figure out how many 485 were filed based on that?
    just an idea!!!!

  14. #3114
    Quote Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25 View Post
    If I just get marriage certificate, won't it arouse suspicion related to visa fraud?
    If you marry a real girl in a real court and really bring her in the US as your wife - that's not fraud.

    Coming up with a fake marriage certificate when a wife does not exist is fraud.

  15. #3115
    Pandit zenmaster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by doctorp View Post
    Hi Guys,
    I was wondering if somebody can answer my previous question about my wife having a different A number compared to her previous A number on OPT EAD card... please... i appreciate the help (please feel free to remove the post from this thread)
    But on a 2nd note, all our receipts are in order LIN *******219 to 224, can we figure out how many 485 were filed based on that?
    just an idea!!!!
    The A number on your OPT card is really your work card number. It is not the same as the A number assigned at 140/485 stage.
    I know it sounds confusing, but that is how it is.
    The A number you get on your EAD (based on 485 filing) will be different than the A number on the EAD recd during OPT.

  16. #3116
    Quote Originally Posted by zenmaster View Post
    The A number on your OPT card is really your work card number. It is not the same as the A number assigned at 140/485 stage.
    I know it sounds confusing, but that is how it is.
    The A number you get on your EAD (based on 485 filing) will be different than the A number on the EAD recd during OPT.
    thanks a ton... i was very confused

  17. #3117
    GC is for future employment. So what has been mentioned in PERM doesn't matter. Please mention the current job title.

    Quote Originally Posted by gc2008 View Post
    Thanks KD2008 for your response. Any other responses would be appreciated. Please let me know I am nervous

  18. #3118
    Gurus,
    When Dec Bulletin came out, lot of noise around. But this Jan Bulletin, I feel comparatively lesser noise. Does this indicate the people with 2008 PD are not too much?

    I know lot of people bought the EB3 labor around july 2007 to get in. May be lot of 2008 Perms were to port that PD to EB2.
    This is just my opinion. I am not an attorney. Pls consult with your attorney.

  19. #3119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Feb262009 View Post
    Gurus,
    When Dec Bulletin came out, lot of noise around. But this Jan Bulletin, I feel comparatively lesser noise. Does this indicate the people with 2008 PD are not too much?

    I know lot of people bought the EB3 labor around july 2007 to get in. May be lot of 2008 Perms were to port that PD to EB2.
    It just means people are busy getting their stuff together. If anything less noise means more people are busy.

  20. #3120
    Two reasons - first - a lot of very active people on the board have already become current - so their focus has shifted from analysis/calculation/anticipation to prepare-for-485 and post-485 stuff. Second, people with 2009/2010 PD, who should ideally be the main audience of this thread, have just not become pained and frustrated enough with the GC process to create much noise (compared to 2007 and 2008 PD people, who despite the EAD/AP bonanza for pre-07/07 people, suffered one of the longest waits for EB2IC).

    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    It just means people are busy getting their stuff together. If anything less noise means more people are busy.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  21. #3121
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

    PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
    CY 2008 2185 + 112
    CY 2009 707 + 63
    CY 2010 616 + 27
    CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

    I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
    CY 2008 687 + 62
    CY 2009 440 + 23
    CY 2010 431 + 19
    CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

    The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

    Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

    I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

    May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

    Please discuss.
    KD this is really good research. Since everything is by PD ideally the trend does indicate significant demand destruction if we read it quite literally for 2008. However what happened in 2008 was quite unusual after mid 2008 every perm went for an audit, so potentially these people may have lost interest in tracking itself for 140. What is important is how many people simply had to leave because they were in their 6th year so could not extend H1 or some who just switched employers so the perms became redundant. Porting was not a phenomenon in this time. Normally I have used Trackitt just for I485 over corresponding periods it works well for EB2 ROW here we are trying to relate 2 different entities perm & I140 ideally we would expect the audience level to be similar as it is for 2009 and 2010. One thing to note is that the 2008 perm figures are now low by any means but resulted in significantly lower I140, this lends good credibility to the research. On another note Trackitt ratios keep changing. However I must agree that this is the first research that indicates demand destruction for 2008.
    Now let’s try to use your research in 2009 and 2010 trend is closer to the 60% line whereas the 2008 figure points to closer to 33%. This might imply 27% extra demand destruction, so we should move closer to the transformation ratio of .73 instead of 1. If the transformation ratio is 0.7 then this means 2200 *.73 ~= 1600 + 250PM porting = 1850. Thus far we have had 16.5 months of intake so this makes the gross intake 30525, this makes the Nett SOFAD required to cross 01-JAN-2009 as 30525 + (8.5 -9)K – SOFAD Consumed ~ 40K. So we are kind of closer to the 40K mark. This would mean that there is probably a 10K buffer but CO and the agencies can quite literally see it only once they monitor the Jan filings, else they can still have their foot on the gas pedal and the intake can go on further. Intake is completely in the discretionary domain, IMHO when the Jan bulletin was released only Nov filings could at best be tabulated and this zone does not come at all closer to the time when perm issues started in 2008 (Time of significant demand destruction), so looks like they expected higher filings even in later 2007 PD zone that they actually got. Hopefully the inventory will clear everything out.

  22. #3122
    But I don't see a huge increase in the 485 thread too. Not just it. When the Jan Bulletin is twice the size (9.5 months) of Dec Bulletin, The people crying out in joy should be twice too. But I don't see many shouting out here, neither in other forums.
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Two reasons - first - a lot of very active people on the board have already become current - so their focus has shifted from analysis/calculation/anticipation to prepare-for-485 and post-485 stuff. ...
    This is just my opinion. I am not an attorney. Pls consult with your attorney.

  23. #3123
    Yay for empirical evidence. I am enthused by the extent of the movement in the last VB (almost feels like panic on DoS' part) and the language that did not close the door in future movement. Qualitative evidence does point towards future movement - and now we are getting quantitative data to support the qualitative assessment as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    One thing to note is that the 2008 perm figures are now low by any means but resulted in significantly lower I140, this lends good credibility to the research. On another note Trackitt ratios keep changing. However I must agree that this is the first research that indicates demand destruction for 2008.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  24. #3124
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    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Veni - I am not sure I understood your conclusion. I understand the data you presented and I agree with the statement below - but I am not sure what you are suggesting regarding possibility of a significant demand destruction in 2008.
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    Veni - I have same question.
    My point was most of the FY2008 and FY2009 PERM filings are certified by FY2010. From the statistics we know that EB2IC received at least 25k VISA per year for last couple of years (total 50K).

    Ron is saying ~70% of FY2008&FY2009 PERMs are indeed EB3-->EB2 conversions, if that is true then EB3I and EB3ROW inventories should have decreased significantly instead we saw the decrease in EB2IC inventory.

    Bottom line is, data does not support Ron's conversion (upgrade) theory. Hope i am clear this time!
    Last edited by veni001; 12-13-2011 at 08:56 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  25. #3125
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    KD this is really good research. Since everything is by PD ideally the trend does indicate significant demand destruction if we read it quite literally for 2008. However what happened in 2008 was quite unusual after mid 2008 every perm went for an audit, so potentially these people may have lost interest in tracking itself for 140. What is important is how many people simply had to leave because they were in their 6th year so could not extend H1 or some who just switched employers so the perms became redundant. Porting was not a phenomenon in this time. Normally I have used Trackitt just for I485 over corresponding periods it works well for EB2 ROW here we are trying to relate 2 different entities perm & I140 ideally we would expect the audience level to be similar as it is for 2009 and 2010. One thing to note is that the 2008 perm figures are now low by any means but resulted in significantly lower I140, this lends good credibility to the research. On another note Trackitt ratios keep changing. However I must agree that this is the first research that indicates demand destruction for 2008.
    Now let’s try to use your research in 2009 and 2010 trend is closer to the 60% line whereas the 2008 figure points to closer to 33%. This might imply 27% extra demand destruction, so we should move closer to the transformation ratio of .73 instead of 1. If the transformation ratio is 0.7 then this means 2200 *.73 ~= 1600 + 250PM porting = 1850. Thus far we have had 16.5 months of intake so this makes the gross intake 30525, this makes the Nett SOFAD required to cross 01-JAN-2009 as 30525 + (8.5 -9)K – SOFAD Consumed ~ 40K. So we are kind of closer to the 40K mark. This would mean that there is probably a 10K buffer but CO and the agencies can quite literally see it only once they monitor the Jan filings, else they can still have their foot on the gas pedal and the intake can go on further. Intake is completely in the discretionary domain, IMHO when the Jan bulletin was released only Nov filings could at best be tabulated and this zone does not come at all closer to the time when perm issues started in 2008 (Time of significant demand destruction), so looks like they expected higher filings even in later 2007 PD zone that they actually got. Hopefully the inventory will clear everything out.
    IMO- actually they did NOT get the number of filings they were looking for hence this drastic movement. And remember most of PWMBs would be in too. So probably both numbers were short of their expectation. ( If reasoning in the VB is to be believed )

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