EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

I was asked this question Off-line. I think it is a good one and I am answering it here for the benefit of everyone.

I am trying to follow your PERM calculations in the link below

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India

I am having difficulty understanding the tables per year.

So I was looking at the 2010 PERM table. Can you please throw some pointers as to how I can start understanding this table? Appreciate your time and patience.

For example in the 2010 PERM table, It says that the number of people with PD in Jan 2010 is total 1500. But I did not understand the division of FY2010 - 1427 and FY2011 - 73. What does that mean? Thanks in advance.

Sometimes it is easy to forget that not everyone has been here a long time and grown up with the Calculations, so a primer may be useful to many newer members.

Let's start with some basics.

The annual PERM data represents Approvals (Certified & Certified-Expired), Denials and Withdrawals made during the relevant DOL FISCAL Year. The Fiscal Year (FY) runs from October 1st to September 30th.

The Receipt Date of the PERM can be considered the Priority Date (PD), but it is not shown in the data. However, it can be extracted from the Case Number. When we talk about PD we are talking about the CALENDAR Year (CY) running from January 1st to December 31st.

The approvals in any FY by DOL may be for several CY PD.

Perhaps the easiest to understand is that PD of October 1st to December 31st of a CY cannot be approved any earlier than than the next FY compared to those with a PD of January 1st to September 30th.

Other reasons are cases delayed by Audit and Appeal or just the general processing time (currently 90 days). A successful Appeal case might not get Certified for 2-3 years. Audit times have varied considerably over the years.

Understanding the above, it becomes clear that the total number of PERM Certifications for a particular PD Month or Year will not become fully apparent for several years, although the majority are Certified in the first two FY of DOL data, if Audit times are not too long.

In the example given, the table is saying, that of 1,500 PERM Certified to date with a Priority date of January 2010, 1,427 were Certified in the DOL FY2010 (October 2009 to September 2010) and 73 were Certified in DOL FY2011 (October 2010 to September 2011).

Going back to what I said above, no cases with a PD of October-December 2010 were Certified in FY2010, since October 2010 is in DOL FY2011.

PD 2010 has become fairly well matched for FY and CY, as DOL have reduced the backlog, but this has not always been the case.

If you look at the Table for PD in CY2009, you will see that virtually no Certification actually took place in FY2009.

I hope that helps people understand the Tables more fully.

[Archer]

No employment related docs like paystubs or W2s if she is filing with you.
You will need here I797 or any other visa doc/approval notices to show continuous legal status. From my experience my wife was here on her BL1 before and the lawyer asked for the approved blanket petition too...had to struggle to get it.
Other than that the usual, passport, i94 marriage and birth certs.
Look at one of the other thread there is plenty of info available.

thanks for the reply
can you please point me to the post. i will search myself. it would be great if you know

[Feb262009]

Spec,
Always admire your ability to explain to newcomers. That is tough when you know a lot.

Do we have any agreement on why do we see this big movement? Is it really demand destruction?

[TeddyKoochu]

Following is the current situation after the release of the Jan Bulletin
EB2 I/C date being at 01-JAN-2009 represents the 40 mark. Here is how 8.5K SOFAD was already consumed and assuming a density of 2 (Highly optimistic) -2.5 (Last Assumption) K per month porting inclusive (@3K Per annum, spread as 250PM & included in the perm figures) it becomes an additional 28 – 35K so essentially 36.5 to 43.5K level; this can be averaged to 40K. We will know the exact numbers only after the Jan 2012 inventory is published. Porting of 3K is only for individuals whose PD is before Jul 2007. I still believe that the 2K per month (Porting Inclusive) a drop of 500 per month is possibly the best case scenario possible.
The 2500 per month figure assuming a perm to 485 rollover ratio of 1 kind of implicitly assumed 38% demand destruction which itself is not small by any means. This is calculated as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62, here 2.125 is the dependent factor and .75 is the EB2 – EB3 ratio. The .75 ratio for EB2 – EB3 takes into account upgrades for individuals who missed the Jul 2007 grand event of dates being current.
The movement especially this month is way beyond expectations in the sense that the prediction benchmark has always been movement equivalent to a year’s SOFAD, most likely the intent is to have a large buffer which would far exceed the SOFAD that would come by in FY 2012, to force the same kind of intake once again in the coming year the SOFAD should come very close to wiping out the intake, this appears to be quite difficult as of now.
For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month, this may well be the last boat in the current intake. The VB language does keep the door open for intakes, however this is beyond the domain of calculated predictions it is something totally in the domain of discretion of the agencies. Having said that the dates may still move further but it is something that cannot be calculated as none of us can logically deduce the targeted intake that the agencies have set to accomplish.
The current bulletin may have been influenced atleast in part with the possibility of HR 3012 being passed, this bill has a full 1 year’s time to pass the senate, since it is currently not the law the agencies are not supposed to take it into account, however if it becomes the law even in a few months time with the current level of intake there may be enough number of EB2 I/C cases to approve, in fact every one even current by even the current VB will come close to be greened quite literally. The agencies are ideally supposed to approve EB2 ROW and EB1 cases as soon as they are pre-adjudicated so in theory if the law passes later on in the year EB2 ROW would have used more than 15% of the 40K allocation. HR 3012 if passed can drastically change the game it kind of gives EB2 I/C ~ 20K guaranteed additional SOFAD.

[Feb262009]

Teddy,
If this intake is last for this fy, and if 3012 doesn't go forward, do you think 2009ers will have to wait more than a year to see any further movement? I thought CO was avoiding the long wait situation by moving dates in controlled manner.

[msekhar14]

Hello Friends,
I am new to this forum (and also I have a very little knowledge of GC Process).

I am in the following situation. Please share your valuable suggestions.

I came to the USA on H1B during Oct 2007. My first employer has applied my GC in EB3 category and my priority date is 06/16/2010. I recently changed my employer (3 months back), and I got 3 years of extension, because my I-140 was approved (at my previous employer). My current employer has started the PERM process and he will file my PERM under EB2 Category pretty soon. But I got a very good job offer (Full Time) from my current client company. My client company promised that they will start the GC as soon as possible (and I hope that they will apply in EB2 Category). While I am about to accept the full time employment with the client, I saw a big movement in EB2 category, yesterday.

Now I am in dilemma, whether to accept the client position, because my current employer has already started the GC in EB2 and if my PD (06/16/2010) becomes current in less than 6 months, then I prefer to stay back with my current employer. Any predictions of getting my PD Current in near future?

On a different note, if my client company applies for my H1B Transfer, will I get my 3 years of extension?

Thanks in advance!!

[Jonty Rhodes]

Following is the current situation after the release of the Jan Bulletin
EB2 I/C date being at 01-JAN-2009 represents the 40 mark. Here is how 8.5K SOFAD was already consumed and assuming a density of 2 (Highly optimistic) -2.5 (Last Assumption) K per month porting inclusive (@3K Per annum, spread as 250PM & included in the perm figures) it becomes an additional 28 – 35K so essentially 36.5 to 43.5K level; this can be averaged to 40K. We will know the exact numbers only after the Jan 2012 inventory is published. Porting of 3K is only for individuals whose PD is before Jul 2007. I still believe that the 2K per month (Porting Inclusive) a drop of 500 per month is possibly the best case scenario possible.
The 2500 per month figure assuming a perm to 485 rollover ratio of 1 kind of implicitly assumed 38% demand destruction which itself is not small by any means. This is calculated as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62, here 2.125 is the dependent factor and .75 is the EB2 – EB3 ratio. The .75 ratio for EB2 – EB3 takes into account upgrades for individuals who missed the Jul 2007 grand event of dates being current.
The movement especially this month is way beyond expectations in the sense that the prediction benchmark has always been movement equivalent to a year’s SOFAD, most likely the intent is to have a large buffer which would far exceed the SOFAD that would come by in FY 2012, to force the same kind of intake once again in the coming year the SOFAD should come very close to wiping out the intake, this appears to be quite difficult as of now.
For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month, this may well be the last boat in the current intake. The VB language does keep the door open for intakes, however this is beyond the domain of calculated predictions it is something totally in the domain of discretion of the agencies. Having said that the dates may still move further but it is something that cannot be calculated as none of us can logically deduce the targeted intake that the agencies have set to accomplish.
The current bulletin may have been influenced atleast in part with the possibility of HR 3012 being passed, this bill has a full 1 year’s time to pass the senate, since it is currently not the law the agencies are not supposed to take it into account, however if it becomes the law even in a few months time with the current level of intake there may be enough number of EB2 I/C cases to approve, in fact every one even current by even the current VB will come close to be greened quite literally. The agencies are ideally supposed to approve EB2 ROW and EB1 cases as soon as they are pre-adjudicated so in theory if the law passes later on in the year EB2 ROW would have used more than 15% of the 40K allocation. HR 3012 if passed can drastically change the game it kind of gives EB2 I/C ~ 20K guaranteed additional SOFAD.

Teddy, this is what CO had to say in that October 26, 2011 meeting with AILA about EB2 ROW and EB2IC.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).* This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.* These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months.* Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins.* It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further.** Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. *** Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012.** He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

My question is that if CO says that he expects the EB2 ROW to remain current for the rest of the FY2012 then I believe we should definitely see retrogression soon (if and when????) for India and China.

However having said that, we don't know whether this VB had some impact from possibility of HR3012 becoming a law or not? Because when CO made an announcement regarding EB2 ROW remaining current through rest of the FY2012 in AILA meeting in October, 2011, I don't think he had any idea regarding HR3012 as it was not in the picture at all. So I don't know whether it was a calculated move by CO to say EB2 ROW will remain current for FY2012 or he just said it in the meeting in response to a question, as he did not have HR3012 in his mind, and now he will backtrack on his own statement in case if HR3012 becomes a law.

One thing is certain that if HR3012 does not pass the senate then EB2ROW will remain current but we have to see whether CO retrogresses the dates of I and C or will it even go further (due to very heavy demand destruction and duplicate PERM filings)??? I guess we have to wait and watch.

[shashinehal]

Sometimes i think the worlds powerful country US and with such good talents working at US from so many years, couldn't put a live immigration system ? where your SSN is unique so how many ever labor or -140 applications you file one will know whats his queue number . And all they have to keep on moving is the queue number which will help people predict their dates and take appropriate action on whether to move jobs or not, marriage plans, etc..

I wish i was in USCIS IT department where i can make decisions and get something like this implemented which will be transparent to all people in US.

[shashinehal]

Wasnt sure how to reply with quote, so had to remove my reply and repost

[mesan123]

GURU's,

Found this article in other forum.... below is the link for foreign labour certification counts till now

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ort_master.pdf

thought this is good...if it is irrelavent...you guys can remove it...

[qesehmk]

Friends we donated $75 more for december (total $150 this month).

By end of december we will donate $100 more at least and make the YTD total to $1000. Please suggest a charity if you know one in the thread - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-We-Made/page2

Thanks
Q

[Feb262009]

Gurus,
3 questions.
- are we in agreement on what reason behind this big movement? Is it demand destruction (can't be that big) or double perm or 3012?

- will CO know the number of fillings in first 10 days of Jan,before releasing feb bulletin ?
- Teddy said current intake is 40k upto Jan 2009 and dates may not move further. If yes, how long it will not move? Is it till this fy or till late next fy?

Thank you.

[kolugc]

Will this be a problem?

My PD is 9-June-2008 and I am current now. But on Nov 18th I sent me wife's passport (Express) to Indian Consulate, NY for renewal. I did include a pre-paid (Express) self address envelope along with our application packet.

But when my PD became current on Friday (9-Dec-2011), I tried calling Indian Consulate, NY to know the status. I got to talk to a person after I tried 50-70times calling them. And she said, our application have been return on Nov 29th because some information was not complete.

But I am worried now, we haven't received it yet. Not sure how they sent it to me. When I try to track the pre-paid Express self addressed envelope I sent them, I don't see any records for that in the USPS site.

Now I think I don't need the Original passport for applying 485 on or by Dec 31st, 2011.

Gurus..... When would I need the Original passport (with regard to 485 process), while applying? bia metric stage? medical examination? or copies are sufficient?

Other question would be, what I should be doing ideally to resolve my current situation? Tried calling the NY, Consulate and its not possible to get through to the person there. So should I travel to NY and see what is to be done? Or should I go for duplicate passport? Not sure myself, I am very confused and worried....

Please help me with some suggestion...

[qesehmk]

Since people have been asking interpretation of latest VB I have given my perspective in the header of hte thread.

Header updated.

Gurus,
3 questions.
- are we in agreement on what reason behind this big movement? Is it demand destruction (can't be that big) or double perm or 3012?

- will CO know the number of fillings in first 10 days of Jan,before releasing feb bulletin ?
- Teddy said current intake is 40k upto Jan 2009 and dates may not move further. If yes, how long it will not move? Is it till this fy or till late next fy?

Thank you.

Will this be a problem?

My PD is 9-June-2008 and I am current now. But on Nov 18th I sent me wife's passport (Express) to Indian Consulate, NY for renewal. I did include a pre-paid (Express) self address envelope along with our application packet.

But when my PD became current on Friday (9-Dec-2011), I tried calling Indian Consulate, NY to know the status. I got to talk to a person after I tried 50-70times calling them. And she said, our application have been return on Nov 29th because some information was not complete.

But I am worried now, we haven't received it yet. Not sure how they sent it to me. When I try to track the pre-paid Express self addressed envelope I sent them, I don't see any records for that in the USPS site.

Now I think I don't need the Original passport for applying 485 on or by Dec 31st, 2011.

Gurus..... When would I need the Original passport (with regard to 485 process), while applying? bia metric stage? medical examination? or copies are sufficient?

Other question would be, what I should be doing ideally to resolve my current situation? Tried calling the NY, Consulate and its not possible to get through to the person there. So should I travel to NY and see what is to be done? Or should I go for duplicate passport? Not sure myself, I am very confused and worried....

Please help me with some suggestion...

You only need a valid passport copies - not necessary physical copy - while applying for 485.

[kolugc]

Thank Q.... very relieving....

Would it be better to visit Indian Consulate NY to get some clarifications? I live in Cleveland.

Since people have been asking interpretation of latest VB I have given my perspective in the header of hte thread.

Header updated.





You only need a valid passport copies - not necessary physical copy - while applying for 485.

[essenel]

Nishant, you are talking more about NSC, right? For TSC, the EAD/AP timeline seems like it is going to be longer than that....

Hi, would like to say that we are noticing folks getting EAD/AP in like 40 days too, before even FP is done. The above was normal timeline told to me by lawyer, but you may get lucky and get sooner. The new EAD/AP combo card per him is almost like GC and can hold digital information like biometrics.

[qesehmk]

I am concerned that the Fedex or whatever they sent you back hasn't reached you. But to be honest that is a separate topic. It shouldn't affect your 485 application.

So please do what you find appropriate. The worst case is you have to reapply for a passport with NY consulate.

Thank Q.... very relieving....

Would it be better to visit US Consulate NY to get some clarifications? I live in Cleveland.

[kolugc]

Thanks Q once again...

Let me wait till end of next week, If I haven't received it yet, then I might have to head to Indian consulate NY.

I am concerned that the Fedex or whatever they sent you back hasn't reached you. But to be honest that is a separate topic. It shouldn't affect your 485 application.

So please do what you find appropriate. The worst case is you have to reapply for a passport with NY consulate.

[shashinehal]

As per the news below it seems that there are fewer applications than expected until 2008 March, which made USCIS to jump for 9 months. If predication's go correct that due to economy slow down there was 40% down in terms of number of new applications than dates might move again in feb 2012.



http://immigrationroad.com/immigration-news.php

12/09/2011: January 2012 Visa Bulletin Released

China and India EB2 leaped forward nearly 10 months to January 1, 2009! According to the State Department: "The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit."

[doctorp]

My personal belief is that it is unlikely that 3012 will pass the senate, Chuck Grassley has put a hold on it, so it is unlikely that it will even come up for discussion even in the judicial committee let alone the senate, also even if comes up to vote and if there are amendments it has to go back to house for approval, all of this is improbabale, if not impossible to happen before 20th jan when new congress starts.
Having said that i think the forward movement is purely due to reasons unknown to us but hopefully known to CO, definitely not due to 3012. I believe a little bit in demand destruction, but not a whole lot. at the same time it seems EB1 and EB2 ROW have not gone down drastically. So I think we should count our blessings and make sure we get 485 filed and at least get EAD/AP
Between, Teddy and other Nov Filers who got their EAD/AP cards... is it 1 or 2 years?
Gurus please give your input

[veni001]

As per the news below it seems that there are fewer applications than expected until 2008 March, which made USCIS to jump for 9 months. If predication's go correct that due to economy slow down there was 40% down in terms of number of new applications than dates might move again in feb 2012.

http://immigrationroad.com/immigration-news.php

12/09/2011: January 2012 Visa Bulletin Released

China and India EB2 leaped forward nearly 10 months to January 1, 2009! According to the State Department: "The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit."

shashinehal,
I wouldn't count this as until March 2008(Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).

I am not sure about the expectations from USCIS/DOS but there is no way that they can gauge the demand coming for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file!

Personally i am for more aggressive movement followed by retro, this way every one will get a chance to file and also from inventory reports we will get visibility into EB485 demand.

[codesmith]

Can Business vas B1 be considered as "Legal non-immigrant"

For 485 filing my lawyer is asking for previous approval notices of Legal non-immigrant visa, I don't have it for Business visa. I want to know if that's problem ?
Does B1 visa alppln get any approval notice like H1 or L1 ?

[suninphx]

shashinehal,
I wouldn't count this as until March 2008(Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).

I am not sure about the expectations from USCIS/DOS but there is no way that they can gauge the demand coming for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file!

Personally i am for more aggressive movement followed by retro, this way every one will get a chance to file and also from inventory reports we will get visibility into EB485 demand.

Agree with Veni that USCIS may be referring to actual demand till 30 OCT 2007. But that makes it even more interesting because it indicates that demand destruction could have started as early as post Jul 2007 and also PWMBs are lesser than they (and we) expected. Wish there was much more transparency in the published data.

[DonDron]

shashinehal,
I wouldn't count this as until March 2008(Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).

I am not sure about the expectations from USCIS/DOS but there is no way that they can gauge the demand coming for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file!

Personally i am for more aggressive movement followed by retro, this way every one will get a chance to file and also from inventory reports we will get visibility into EB485 demand.

Couldn't agree more Veni. And perhaps that was the reason why they didn't release demand data. As there is no point of releases if you don't have it or is unchanged. CO considers pre-adjusted 485 (ready for visa allocation) as demand rather than number of applications filed. In October, he did mentioned that, it takes 4-5 months for them to work on the applications and decide if it is eligible for GC or not. Considering that, he predicted that there won't be huge demand surge and hence it makes sense for him to keep moving.

Given that this is holiday season, I am not sure on how many applications they will be able to work on, if that number is still low then I believe CO will move dates further in Feb visa bulletin.

[imdeng]

Way too much pessimism. A whole lots of bills pass the Senate after initial holds by some or the other Senators - I would suggest checking the history of passed bills in Thomas. Also - 112th Congress continues until the new Congress comes in only in Jan 2013 - Congress' terms are for two years. Time is not a problem for HR-3012.

EAD/AP is for two years.

My personal belief is that it is unlikely that 3012 will pass the senate, Chuck Grassley has put a hold on it, so it is unlikely that it will even come up for discussion even in the judicial committee let alone the senate, also even if comes up to vote and if there are amendments it has to go back to house for approval, all of this is improbabale, if not impossible to happen before 20th jan when new congress starts.
Having said that i think the forward movement is purely due to reasons unknown to us but hopefully known to CO, definitely not due to 3012. I believe a little bit in demand destruction, but not a whole lot. at the same time it seems EB1 and EB2 ROW have not gone down drastically. So I think we should count our blessings and make sure we get 485 filed and at least get EAD/AP
Between, Teddy and other Nov Filers who got their EAD/AP cards... is it 1 or 2 years?
Gurus please give your input