EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[natvyas]

@ragx08 ---- H1B cap reached on november 22nd for FY 2012.....not sure how your spouse can change the status from H4 to H1 before the next fiscal year quota kiks in (April 2012)

if one works for a non-profit organization then he/she can apply for H1 anytime of the year and subsequently start working anytime of the year....there isnt a cap on H1B for non-profit organizations..

[ragx08]

if one works for a non-profit organization then he/she can apply for H1 anytime of the year and subsequently start working anytime of the year....there isnt a cap on H1B for non-profit organizations..

I did not know that - Since the last 2+years, she was actually working for a non-profit organization (taking care of their SQL needs - dev/maintenance) for free. It is more of a voluntary service - so I guess no work permit needed.

[chagas]

She was on H1B before - I guess that makes a difference.

Ok. So basically it is from H1 - H4 - H1 (after H1 stamping) . I am still unsure if she can change the status unless it's a non-profir orog. as natvyas pointed out. Either way best of luck !!!

[mrhyderabad]

If CO sticks to his "and beyond" comment in the VB, you should be current in the next month. However, nobody knows CO's thought process so I would say a 50-50 chance. Maybe a little better than that.

Thank you very. I hope you are right about CO sticking to his comment for coming bulletins. It is been more than 5 years that I travelled to India.

[ragx08]

Ok. So basically it is from H1 - H4 - H1 (after H1 stamping) . I am still unsure if she can change the status unless it's a non-profir orog. as natvyas pointed out. Either way best of luck !!!

Frankly - I'll be happy if she does not take up this job - as it requires her to move to a different state! In any case I'm not very concerned abt that. If it works out - good! If not - better!!! :-)

[natvyas]

Frankly - I'll be happy if she does not take up this job - as it requires her to move to a different state! In any case I'm not very concerned abt that. If it works out - good! If not - better!!! :-)

I hope ur wifey isnt reading this post of yours....nahi to aaj dinner nahi milega

[ramchand]

@ragx08: Can you please check your pm when possible? I probably have a similar situation as your wife and would appreciate some details

[enigma]

Thanks, Q. It's comforting to know that others have been through the 485 stage on F1. Would you suggest changing my wife's status from F1 to H4, after applying for 485 and getting the EAD cards? (since she would be able to continue her on-campus work without the need for F1 at that point). I am assuming here that if the dates do move past my PD they will eventually retrogress and I would be stuck at the EAD stage for the next year or so.

PS - Please let me know if I should move this conversation to a different thread and I will be happy to do so.

my wife was on f1 when we filed our 485.

[ragx08]

I hope ur wifey isnt reading this post of yours....nahi to aaj dinner nahi milega

No problem - can live on 'liquid" diet, if needed!!!! Anyways, today's news calls for some celebrations after all!!!

[ragx08]

@ragx08: Can you please check your pm when possible? I probably have a similar situation as your wife and would appreciate some details

Ramchand, check you pm for the reply.

[mr53123]

Regd filing 485 - J1 Dependent
Hi All ,
Congrats to all those who are current. I am Dec 2008, so I am current as well.

However, I have a small problem. My spouse is currently on H4. She was on a J1 Visa way back in 2004, and on her IAP 66, it is written that she is subject to the 2 year HRR. It was a self funded 1 month trip.

She served 18 months before coming back on F1, and if you include vacations, thats another two months.
So in all she has served 20/24 months. She is 4 months short. If we apply for 485 without a waiver will she be rejected?
Is it better to just wait until we get the waiver and apply? I just started the waiver process, so thats another 8-9 months I suppose.
Thanks a lot.

[qesehmk]

i am quite sure that my wife had a dual status F1/AOS which then changed to H4/AOS.

Regarding privacy - if you want to keep it private pls feel free to pm me. Otherwise i am fine discussing here.

Thanks, Q. It's comforting to know that others have been through the 485 stage on F1. Would you suggest changing my wife's status from F1 to H4, after applying for 485 and getting the EAD cards? (since she would be able to continue her on-campus work without the need for F1 at that point). I am assuming here that if the dates do move past my PD they will eventually retrogress and I would be stuck at the EAD stage for the next year or so.

PS - Please let me know if I should move this conversation to a different thread and I will be happy to do so.

[enigma]

Thanks again for your prompt response Q. As for privacy/PMs, I will keep that in mind if I have any additional specific questions on this matter.

i am quite sure that my wife had a dual status F1/AOS which then changed to H4/AOS.

Regarding privacy - if you want to keep it private pls feel free to pm me. Otherwise i am fine discussing here.

[ontheedge]

She was on H1B before - I guess that makes a difference.

yes, if she was on H1B before and did not exhaust her 6 years..her application wont be counted against the cap.

[makmohan]

Friends,

Cannot believe I am current in this VB! Congrats to everyone who is current. I also want to thank everyone esp. Q for setting up this blog. It has been a strong support to help me stay on track.

A very basic question to have a good understanding of timelines:
Am I correct when I say:
- We get remaining december to work and prepare all the documented?
- We start filing from Jan-2012 and all 485 docs must reach USCIS before last working day of Jan?

Thanks,
M

[imdeng]

Yup. Correct on both. You may have more time than end of Jan if PD does not retrogress. However, of course, it is advisable to send your docs to reach as soon as possible in Jan 2012.

Am I correct when I say:
- We get remaining december to work and prepare all the documented?
- We start filing from Jan-2012 and all 485 docs must reach USCIS before last working day of Jan?

[soggadu]

CO did a CHAMAKKK CHALOOO again!!!!...Wow congratulations to everyone and i wish all of us get GC's soon...

[imdeng]

Prediction: We are going to see a flood of 2009 PD folks registering and starting to post here. Well - may be not - there aren't too many people with 2009 PD! Post-485 thread will probably blow up through the holiday season.

[imdeng]

** is slipping up. I replied to someone's question about 485 documentation asking them to check the post-485 thread in Q's Blog. It has been several hours and it has not yet been deleted.

PS> With this I reach 200 posts. Tendulkar got 200, Sehwag crossed 200 and I reach 200 today - same thing on level of achievement I think :-)

[kd2008]

Teddy, Q, Spec, others, please let me know what you think of this:

EB1 & EB2ROW has quite a bit of backlog from last year. EB1 & EB2ROW approvals are picking up. Since USCIS operates on FIFO wrt I-485 and goes by the filing date, EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are more likely in next few months. So it may happen that EB2IC demand takes a long time to show up and also the number of filings are low. So we may see quite a progression of dates but in the end see a small SOFAD and severe retrogression. HR 3012 could change that but lets just use the law that is in force now for our discussion.

This may be bittersweet or rather, sweetbitter!

I just hope that a lot of folks waiting to file I-485 get to do so soon!

[longgcque]

Q I sent you a PM. Please respond when you have a moment. Thanks

i am quite sure that my wife had a dual status F1/AOS which then changed to H4/AOS.

Regarding privacy - if you want to keep it private pls feel free to pm me. Otherwise i am fine discussing here.

[fedupwithgc]

Prediction: We are going to see a flood of 2009 PD folks registering and starting to post here. Well - may be not - there aren't too many people with 2009 PD! Post-485 thread will probably blow up through the holiday season.

DOL made a statement that most of the people who applied for PERM in 2008 already had approved PERM on file (EB3->EB2 porting) and that may be the case for low turnout of applications in Nov and significant movement in Jan..

Just my 2 Cents ....

[imdeng]

We don't know the extent of data sharing between USCIS and DOS. From the VB, it looks like USCIS has reported on "the rate of new filings" - this seems like the filings received figure and not filings processed or approved. If that is the case then the current movement is directly because of low demand in EB2IC and not because of the demand not showing up because of backlog in EB1/EB2ROW.

EB1 & EB2ROW has quite a bit of backlog from last year. EB1 & EB2ROW approvals are picking up. Since USCIS operates on FIFO wrt I-485 and goes by the filing date, EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are more likely in next few months. So it may happen that EB2IC demand takes a long time to show up and also the number of filings are low. So we may see quite a progression of dates but in the end see a small SOFAD and severe retrogression.

[imdeng]

I have not come across any statement from DoL in this regard. Could you point me towards a link for the same? This would surely explain the low PERM/485 ratio, if true.

DOL made a statement that most of the people who applied for PERM in 2008 already had approved PERM on file (EB3->EB2 porting) and that may be the case for low turnout of applications in Nov and significant movement in Jan..

Just my 2 Cents ....

[veni001]

That is so true. So far all Gurus have been pretty much up to the mark in making calculated predictions. We are now in the zone of an unknown demand where CO is making huge movements with whatever data he has on his hand to generate demand. It does not mean everyone till December 31st, 2008 will get GCs. Gurus don't have a crystal ball and whatever data they have is limited. No one including Mr. CO himself, accurately knows what the demand destruction is, what is the exact percentage of porting, what is the exact level of duplicate PERM filings. Obviously there will be some predictions which will go wrong when it comes to visa bulletin movements. But as far as getting the GC in hand is concerned, predictions of Gurus are hitting bullseye more than 90 percent of time. Moreover, this is a blog to bring clarity to GC process. This is not a game or a competition for making predictions. I hope those ungrateful folks who are bashing Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, Nishant etc. can understand this. Keep up the good work folks. I want you to know that your work is highly appreciated.

Dr.Jonty,
Thank you