EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[EB2Jun08]

Congrats to all who become current including me. its a great feeling to become current

[mrperfect]

Congrats to all who became current.. I know all Odds are against any further movement.. But i am hopeful CO can still keep this pace for next visa bulletin..

PD: 12/2009

[chagas]

Congrats to all who became current in Jan '12 bulletin !

[suninphx]

Congrats to all who became current.. I know all Odds are against any further movement.. But i am hopeful CO can still keep this pace for next visa bulletin..

PD: 12/2009

If this is real then its great news for multiple reasons

1) First and foremost...lot of people get to file 485 - congrats all who are current
2) HR3012 or no HR3012 , CO is covered
3) Within few months we will know 'actual' demand of 2008 making picture much more clearer. ( Many people have including me have been skeptical about this data)

All in all sounds positive. Good luck guys!

[qesehmk]

i think so mesan. This is most likely in anticipation of 3012.

this move of dates in JAn bulletin is it for covering incase HR 3012 becomes LAW or less cases with USCIS...i know they are trying to get inventory

[nishant2200]

Friends, seems like in parallel universe. Lots of best wishes. CO has destroyed all predictions beyond my wildest dreams.

It can be either demand destruction, to cover ground in case 3012, or purely benevolent act of kindness taking advantage of low numbers in DD.

Retrogression is certain sometime. But that time is not now obviously

Let's see if he puts any comments. I think he will hint towards retro in his last move VB.

[suninphx]

i think so mesan. This is most likely in anticipation of 3012.

Yes - CO has covered himself in either scenarios.

[dreamer]

AWESOME NEWS!!!!

Congrats for the Wishes, I am in excited-unexcited hung state until official bulletin is out

CONGRATULATIONS for all folks who became current!!!

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends this is great and amazing news, congratulations to everyone who is current. We are now kind of at the 45K mark from where FY 2011 ended. This bulletin can in a very large part be attributed to the positive sentiment around HR 3012; the bulletin is way beyond any expectations or predictions. All the best once again to those who became current.

[venkimakthal]

Friends, seems like in parallel universe. Lots of best wishes. CO has destroyed all predictions beyond my wildest dreams.

It can be either demand destruction, to cover ground in case 3012, or purely benevolent act of kindness taking advantage of low numbers in DD.

Retrogression is certain sometime. But that time is not now obviously

Let's see if he puts any comments. I think he will hint towards retro in his last move VB.

That's correct, what time the actual VB released last month when the dates leaked in Mumbai consulate?

[qesehmk]

My bad! I clearly misunderstood.

p.s. - removed other comments to avoid distraction. I am sorry suninphx.

Q not sure why it seem to be sarcastic comments. I was mentioning about 'CO' has covered himself in either scenarios. HR3012 or no HR3012. My previous post mentions the same.

[ontheedge]

I'm on pins and needles waiting for the 'official' bulletin. How many times has the Mumbai Consulate made a blunder? I remember one occasion. Is it safe to rely on their bulletin completely?

[suninphx]

My bad! I clearly misunderstood.

I have edited my post.

[pdfeb09]

My take is.. CO has progressed the dates this far to get a lot more intake than to just cover the SOFAD/3012.
Reasoning: If he just covers SOFAD/3012, then, as Spectator has mentioned, the DD for most of the months will not show any demand.
Too many DDs with No demand will raise the question, "Why are countries retrogressed if there is no demand for so many months?"

The only way CO could tackle this was by either retrogressing too far back from where he was on the Dec VB ( Cannot do it, since if the intake is not enough he may end up wasting Visas) ..
Advancing too much into the future, just short of making it current, so that enough demand is generated beyond the SOFAD/3012, that way the visibility of the demand increases, and they are covered both legally and from the predictability point of view.

I am expecting NO movement in the Feb bulletin, and Retro in March bulletin (possibly to Mar 08). Then it will be stagnant until the demand has been worked out .... No numbers here.. just a theory !

As Q has mentioned, make hay while the sun shines... don't wait on your 485 apps ... don't be a PWMB2 !! Congrats once again .. !

just my .2 cents.

[qesehmk]

many congrats sportsfan. Wish you the best!

Just an update for my friends:

Seems like we won't be filing our AoS any time soon. Incredible! My wife just today got a big jump in her group and she wants to stick it out (she is presently working in India and I will join her soon). You guys can count 2 less 485 numbers from the 2008 demand and hope for at least some of the 2009 people to be taken in this buildup.

We may come back here in the future and recapture our 2008 PD, but we are definitely not filing next month.

Good luck to all. Hope this news turns out true and hope we see a further movement in February bulletin. Let's go CO. You can give EADs for 2 years...take as many people as possible.

Wrong section I know..My wife is stuck in India and my PD (primary app) will be current in Jan '12. She is going to get her H4 done and get here by 1st Jan. What other options does she have?

Does it take longer than the regular process? Bigger risks involved? Appreciate any response. I have posted my question in the 485 Thread. Any info would be greatly appreciated

RMS,
I do not believe CP is riskier. But clearly it wont give you an EAD. That's the only drawback i see.

[imdeng]

Except for that one time when they did wrong copy-paste, they have been reliable. Past few months they have been entirely correct. So - relax - 01/01/09 is real.

I'm on pins and needles waiting for the 'official' bulletin. How many times has the Mumbai Consulate made a blunder? I remember one occasion. Is it safe to rely on their bulletin completely?

[suninphx]

My bad! I clearly misunderstood.

p.s. - removed other comments to avoid distraction. I am sorry suninphx.

You are fine Q! Lets enjoy the news!

[Spectator]

Friends, seems like in parallel universe. Lots of best wishes. CO has destroyed all predictions beyond my wildest dreams.

It can be either demand destruction, to cover ground in case 3012, or purely benevolent act of kindness taking advantage of low numbers in DD.

Retrogression is certain sometime. But that time is not now obviously

Let's see if he puts any comments. I think he will hint towards retro in his last move VB.

Nishant,

I agree with you.

With such a large movement, there can be no excuse not to put a comment in the VB. I await that with interest.

Hopefully USCIS will publish a new Inventory as at the beginning of January 2012. That could answer the questions about actual demand and allow recalibration as necessary.

I think some members don't appreciate the uncertainty of the calculations at the moment and can only criticize, even though it has been spelt out time after time. There is one in particular who does nothing but that on several forums. Discussion as to why an assumption may be wrong and why it might be adjusted to is far more constructive.

[medatom]

Congratulations guys!. Hope the movement continues in 2012!!

[imdeng]

These are times when I miss QBF :-) We have no visibility on what is going on in the Chinese side - I would imagine they will be at 01-Jan-2009 as well.

[ontheedge]

Except for that one time when they did wrong copy-paste, they have been reliable. Past few months they have been entirely correct. So - relax - 01/01/09 is real.

Whew.....! )

[kripton99]

i think so mesan. This is most likely in anticipation of 3012.

If it is in anticipation of 3012, then there should be some movement in EB3 too?

[luckycub]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5630.html

Congrats to all who's current now!!!

[vishnu]

No Kripton - as remember EB3 I dates are only at 2002 but they have plenty of i-485s already in the system upto 2007 (during the fiasco).

[saky007]

EB2 I - Jan 1 2009 (officially confirmed )

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5630.html