EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[shreyasai2004]

Is it believable news or not. If it is then I am current. How come visa bulliten first with out DD

[dorais]

Congrats to all who became current with this bulletin!

[fedupwithgc]

Congrats to all who became current with this bulletin!

Congrats to everyone who is current...

[SaturnRing]

SWEET news. Big congrats to all of us who are current. It feels almost unreal. Have spent 12 yrs in this country and finally, getting a chance to file 485 :-)

Gurus, what's your take on this move? Do you think the demand destruction is much more than what was calculated or is this purely for demand build up ( possibly for 3012)?
whatever be the reason, we'll take it :-):-):-):-):-):-)

[venkimakthal]

Congrats to everyone who is current...

I am current, many of our groups also current, I am very excited and waiting to see same in in VB

[TheTexan]

this is too good to be true... I would wait for the actual bulletin before going crazy....

[vishnu]

Obviously we will wait for the official bulletin, but here is my take on this. Part of the big move could perhaps be HR 3012 related, but I think it has more to do with the inflow of applications into USCIS as the dates were moved beyond Jul 2007. We estimated I485s based on the perm x some cancellation factor x 65-70% for EB2. It is likely the cancellation factor is bigger than what we used in our calculations (it is good to be conservative, so not being critical of the assumption) due to things like perm abandonment (less likely though) and multiple perms (due to layoffs, spouses filing etc). Multiple perms factor is significant - was talking to people who moved around in 2008-09, and a majority of them had at least 2 perms and i-140 so that they could extend their H1 beyond 6 years. Anyway, just my 2 cents...

[shreyasai2004]

Congrats to every one who are become current

[Kanmani]

CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08
07/09/08 - ragx08
07/11/08 - TheTexan
07/14/08 - Sirisha
08/05/08 - sreddy
08/05/08 - gcdedo
08/20/08 - vizcard
08/25/08 - PD2008AUG25
08/26/08 - jothi prakash
09/25/08 - longgcque
09/28/08 - la_2002_ch
09/29/08 - Dreamer
10/10/08 - crux123
10/21/08 - sportsfan33
10/28/08 - leo4ever
11/10/08 - myturn
11/17/08 - punjabi
11/18/08 - vinrobo
11/26/08 - varma123
11/26/08 - Scion78
12/12/08 - Sudheer
12/19/08 - zztopfan

Hope and Pray Mumbai consulate didnt commit any mistake :-)

[Kanmani]

Nowadays Mumbai consulate is improving. anyhow we have to wait for the official bulletin. Congratulations sportsfan and pedro. have a great weekend.

[ontheedge]

Can't believe I'm just checking in after having been up for an hour or so!! Great news to begin the day...hope this is not a mistake!! All my documents, medicals, et al are ready...just need the stupid photos. Sorry for rambling...I'm too excited

[ontheedge]

Unbelievable!

All bets are off here. Is this a good sign for HR 3012?

Congrats to all who became current. I am in a disarray. I was not expecting this at all. I don't even think I have my birth certificate and our marriage certificate was missing. Good God.

I will be missing from action for a few days.

Go start working on getting everything ready! Congratulations my friend, know the feeling

[venkat]

How come my name is not on the list? how do i update my PD?
Man...this is a wonderful feeling... Now i know how people feel when their dates become currnet

CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08
07/09/08 - ragx08
07/11/08 - TheTexan
07/14/08 - Sirisha
08/05/08 - sreddy
08/05/08 - gcdedo
08/20/08 - vizcard
08/25/08 - PD2008AUG25
08/26/08 - jothi prakash
09/25/08 - longgcque
09/28/08 - la_2002_ch
09/29/08 - Dreamer
10/10/08 - crux123
10/21/08 - sportsfan33
10/28/08 - leo4ever
11/10/08 - myturn
11/17/08 - punjabi
11/18/08 - vinrobo
11/26/08 - varma123
11/26/08 - Scion78
12/12/08 - Sudheer
12/19/08 - zztopfan

Hope and Pray Mumbai consulate didnt commit any mistake :-)

[asankaran]

I would say it is pure demand destruction and our Gurus have completely missed it. Anyways I would say guys in 2009 and 2010 should feel optimistic!! Congratulations for those who became current!!!

SWEET news. Big congrats to all of us who are current. It feels almost unreal. Have spent 12 yrs in this country and finally, getting a chance to file 485 :-)

Gurus, what's your take on this move? Do you think the demand destruction is much more than what was calculated or is this purely for demand build up ( possibly for 3012)?
whatever be the reason, we'll take it :-):-):-):-):-):-)

[jackbrown_890]

congratulations

[PD2008AUG25]

I am cautiously waiting for Bulletin. It sounds too good to be true, what if it is 1 Jan 2008, which was more likely than 2009. Does any one know how long we have to wait for actual bulletin?

[qesehmk]

lets hope this is real. congrats to all those current.
i think about six months of this is proactive intake.
so if i were w pd jun08 onwards i would definitely file 485 asap .

SWEET news. Big congrats to all of us who are current. It feels almost unreal. Have spent 12 yrs in this country and finally, getting a chance to file 485 :-)

Gurus, what's your take on this move? Do you think the demand destruction is much more than what was calculated or is this purely for demand build up ( possibly for 3012)?
whatever be the reason, we'll take it :-):-):-):-):-):-)

[veni001]

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 I is 1 Jan 2009

Congratulations to all those who will be current in January.

Great way to start Holiday Season and New Year.

[veni001]

lets hope this is real. congrats to all those current.
i think about six months of this is proactive intake.
so if i were w pd jun08 onwards i would definitely file 485 asap .

Agree, This could be the final intake for FY2012 (Let's hope not for FY2013!), and the chances for retro in FEB'12 VB is high.

[RMS_V13]

Wrong section I know..My wife is stuck in India and my PD (primary app) will be current in Jan '12. She is going to get her H4 done and get here by 1st Jan. What other options does she have?

How does consular processing work? Does it take longer than the regular process? Bigger risks involved? Appreciate any response. I have posted my question in the 485 Thread. Any info would be greatly appreciated

[longgcque]

One of the best morning's for me. Finally I am current .. 3.5 long yrs .. surviving job and waiting n waiting ... happy for all fellow board members .. mine is 9/25/2008 .. hope for the best.

This board is awesome .. for all its contributors .. cant list down all names .. but u all good .. may god bless us all

cheers

Congratulations to all those who will be current in January.

Great way to start Holiday Season and New Year.

[la_2002_ch]

Congrats all !!! Its a great feeling to wake up to such a good news!! hope the consulate didnt make any mistake this time. It would be really hard now to know its not true. Hope the official bulletin comes out soon!!! Waited for 3.5 years, but now CANT WAIT for few hours for the bulletin!!

[sreddy]

What a great morning news.... one of the best i heard in the recent years... Congrat every one who got current.

[mesan123]

Tnx for your replies guys(Q,VENI & SPEC).......but this move of dates in JAn bulletin is it for covering incase HR 3012 becomes LAW or less cases with USCIS...i know they are trying to get inventory, but i was curious to know how many cases are there with them now?

Friends I am very much around and do care about this topic. However I have now taken up a consulting job and am travelling every week and its killing me. That's the reason i am not able to spend a lot of time on the forum. But I do keep an eye on the forum.


As per the bulletin - i think it must come by Tue. Most likely it should actually come tomorrow. I agree w Spec. There is not much to say really. The movement has already occurred as we said. Any further movement probably will be in anticipation of 3012 bill. All the best guys!

p.s. - Don't worry about the volume and visits to our forum. That never was the objective and never will be. On the contrary if we keep doing what we are doing - visits and volume will follow. Good luck for the next bulletin!

I think most people are still around.

Maybe there is not much to say at present.

The PERM figures were updated recently and I continue to update the Trackitt figures regularly http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...012-vs.-FY2011

I mentioned recently that I don't believe the Demand Data has much use at present and why.

While there was a backlog, we could be quantitative with the predictions - now it is trying to guess what CO is thinking and trusting to assumptions when converting PERM data to I-485 numbers

FWIW, I agree with Teddy and Nishants's recent summing up.

To date, the movement to 15MAR08 has covered around the 32k EB2-IC cases Teddy has mentioned, but most of that has not yet come through as Demand because it takes time to adjudicate the newly submitted cases. To date they may have approved up to 8.9k cases including Porting, but adjudicatable cases are running out.

Because of this, I don't expect large numbers of EB2-IC approvals in December. Maybe more importantly, the approvals seem to have been front loaded in the quarter and I am not sure that there are many more spare visas available to allocate to EB2-IC in Q1, once approvals in other Categories are accounted for. The number of EB1 approvals have been as large as EB2-ROW have been low.

Q2 is less than a month away. Within the new quarterly allocation, hopefully CO can avoid retrogressing EB2-IC much before September 2007, once the November VB filings start becoming ripe for adjudication.

As for VB movement, I think people have summed it up pretty well and it could go either way. I think it will be more forward movement in the next two VB. I would love to know if CO is getting figures from USCIS about receipt volumes - even better if we also knew what they were.

So it is wait and watch. I do think it is also correct that people have become weary with all the other activities going on.

mesan,
I agree that # of posts (volume) came down from Gurus. But we are all here, whenever new data it is available we are crunching the number.

I am not able to contribute much in the last couple of months mainly due to increased responsibilities at work (in a good way)!

[mesan123]

Congrats PEDRO and all who became current...