EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[jkrocks]

@RamChand!.. Option 1: Become dependent if you want to stay with your wife/family.
Option 2: If you want to be away !..go back to India..and do some work in some multi-national company i am sure they will give you nice perks as you came back from US.
Regarding 2009 becoming current- My friend no one knows what will happen to HR 3012 but all i can say is "Life should go on...." so relax be positive ..discuss with your family and move forward I am sure you will succeed ...Good lucK!

[Zoroark]

Someone on this forum said his friend with 9/11/2008 PD got a fee notice. He initially said Oct but later corrected to Sept. If you go back a few pages, you might find it.

My friend recently got the NVC fee notice and his PD is 08/19/2008.

[soggadu]

Hello All,

I am a new member, so please forgive if posting in wrong thread. Please move it to appropriate location if needed.

I was hoping I could get some advise about my situation.
I am in my 6th year H1B with no PERM on file. Unfortunately, my company is shuttering so no approved I-140 for me. Other companies not willing to hire because H1B cannot be extended any further.

My options are:
1) Go out of the country for 1 year so that fresh H1B can be filed after I get back as wife's dependant on H4.
2) Go onto my wife's H4 and wait for my wife's PD(April 2009) to get current.

I do not want to sit idle for too long, so I am trying to get an estimate as to when my wife will get current. If it is going to be more than a year, I might as well go out of the country for a year. Separation from Spouse is hard, but sitting idle will be even harder . I already have a job offer from outside the US (with no Visa issues for that country).

Any thoughts/estimates from you are much appreciated.

-Ramchand

Bro... first of all you are lucky that you have a backup... my guess is same time next year you would be good without 3012 and in couple of months you will be good if 3012 makes through.... dont worry bro... you are in good shape...

[bieber]

Vizcard, thanks

My friend recently got the NVC fee notice and his PD is 08/19/2008.

Zoroark, can you confirm the date of this receipt?

[Tomtuat]

I think last NVC notice information was from Ron gotcher confirming July30, where did you hear about Sept 2008?

Yes, he confirmed that he received notice in November for 2 or 3 clients with July 2008 PD. But someone with June 2008 PD received NVC fee notice in May 2011 which is why I beleive they will move the date to July 1 2008 in January 2012's bulletin. As per Ron, NVC send the notice 4 to 9 months in advance.

[vizcard]

Yes, he confirmed that he received notice in November for 2 or 3 clients with July 2008 PD. But someone with June 2008 PD received NVC fee notice in May 2011 which is why I beleive they will move the date to July 1 2008 in January 2012's bulletin. As per Ron, NVC send the notice 4 to 9 months in advance.

that 4 - 9 months is very variable depending on the source. I've heard 6 - 12 months as well. But I hope you are right. As I said before, I believe dates will move to June 30 and then stall or retrogress (my opinion).

[venkat]

Hello All,
I've been a silent member in this forum visiting at least twice a day. Great work by the entire team here...

I think the popular prediction for VB dates movement is July 1, 2008 (in next 1-2 months) and then retrogression.

This is being assumed based on initial NVC fee receipts issued to applicants about 4-5 months back. I guess we need to find out from those folks how far there cases have advanced since then. I think they need to submit initial documentation to NVC, then it gets verified and NVC requests applicant to fill another set of documents. Once they receive it and verify it the applicant is considered documentarily complete. Then they send it to overseas for scheduling the immigrant visa interview.

Is it possible to find out whether folks whose PD is in March (as per Dec VB) have completed all documentation and received interview letters from NVC/Consulate?

Also what about folks in March-June time-frame? have they submitted all necessary documentation to NVC?

Unless we know these for sure i don't know whether we can say with confidence that the dates will move till July 2008 for sure.

Gurus, Please comment...

[Tomtuat]

that 4 - 9 months is very variable depending on the source. I've heard 6 - 12 months as well. But I hope you are right. As I said before, I believe dates will move to June 30 and then stall or retrogress (my opinion).

I hope we'll have the bulletin on Friday!!

[natvyas]

I was wondering how would the demand data have an impact on the PD movement in the Jan VB given the fact that the CO is moving dates to build a pipeline

[vizcard]

I was wondering how would the demand data have an impact on the PD movement in the Jan VB given the fact that the CO is moving dates to build a pipeline

Its more important for us rather than for CO. More data points === more visibility in to the process and better calculations.

[Spectator]

I was wondering how would the demand data have an impact on the PD movement in the Jan VB given the fact that the CO is moving dates to build a pipeline

natvyas,

For EB2, the Demand Data can not really tell us anything positive.

I expect it to look exactly as last month, give or take 25-100 cases. Essentially they will represent CP cases where the visas have been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place.

All EB2-IC dates that could be adjudicated are effectively Current. If a visa is requested by USCIS, it will be issued and immediately consumed to approve the case. Therefore it will not appear in the Demand Data.

If the numbers rise substantially in the Demand Data, it would indicate that there are no further visas to allocate to EB2-IC in December. I don't expect this to happen, although DOS do seem to have already allocated the majority of the 27% available for Q1.

If it takes 4-5 months to adjudicate a new I-485, then only cases submitted in July/August will be coming ready for approval. That is not a large number and the existing preadjudicated cases seem to be virtually all approved.

Only if the dates retrogress should we expect the numbers in the Demand Data to increase.

[vizcard]

natvyas,

For EB2, the Demand Data can not really tell us anything positive.

I expect it to look exactly as last month, give or take 25-100 cases. Essentially they will represent CP cases where the visas have been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place.

All EB2-IC dates that could be adjudicated are effectively Current. If a visa is requested by USCIS, it will be issued and immediately consumed to approve the case. Therefore it will not appear in the Demand Data.

If the numbers rise substantially in the Demand Data, it would indicate that there are no further visas to allocate to EB2-IC in December. I don't expect this to happen, although DOS do seem to have already allocated the majority of the 27% available for Q1.

If it takes 4-5 months to adjudicate a new I-485, then only cases submitted in July/August will be coming ready for approval. That is not a large number and the existing preadjudicated cases seem to be virtually all approved.

Only if the dates retrogress should we expect the numbers in the Demand Data to increase.

This implies that dates will move significantly, no?

[SaturnRing]

vizcard, I really wish that it means the date will move forward, but it is USCIS and DOL we are talking about

According to last month's demand data, the supply far exceeded demand, so they should have made current, but they didn't. The same logic applies here too, low DD should mean a forward movement (and I am badly hoping it is), but we would never know.

out conservative guru Teddy says 50%, so lets hope for the best.

[Spectator]

This implies that dates will move significantly, no?

vizcard,

Not really.

CO can move the Cut off Dates independent of Demand currently because the new cases have yet to be adjudicated. I am sure CO knows already what date he is aiming for.

Personally, if I was CO, I would move it in several smaller increments.

Why? As long as the dates continue to move forward, everybody is happy. If the dates stall or retrogress, people will be unhappy. We saw that last year. Since that is bound to happen at some point, I would delay that situation as long as possible.

The only caveat to that is that, hopefully CO is getting some data from USCIS regarding Receipt totals. If they are either higher or lower than he is expecting, he might have to rethink his strategy.

Ultimately, what will be, will be.

[aaron385]

Friends, I know this is a bit off topic and may have been discussed in the past but I was wondering if someone can give me a quick reply.
My birth certificate is in Hindi language and does not have my name on it. It just says that a Boy was born to my parents on that date.

I have two separate affidavits from my parents stating the fact my name was not added to my original certificate.
Are these two affidavits sufficient for I-485 filing or do I need to get my original BC translated into English?
If yes, can it be any professional transalor company or does it has to be from the native Municipal corporation?
Thanks in advance

[manubhai]

Friends, I know this is a bit off topic and may have been discussed in the past but I was wondering if someone can give me a quick reply.
My birth certificate is in Hindi language and does not have my name on it. It just says that a Boy was born to my parents on that date.

I have two separate affidavits from my parents stating the fact my name was not added to my original certificate.
Are these two affidavits sufficient for I-485 filing or do I need to get my original BC translated into English?
If yes, can it be any professional transalor company or does it has to be from the native Municipal corporation?
Thanks in advance

Not a legal advice, please consult a lawyer.

I have a similar issue - no name, only baby boy/girl, but in English.
Per my attorney - You could get away with two things:
1. English Translation
2. Board exam certificate with your and parents' name.

From what I remember from messages on this board only - translation could be done by anyone. Please confirm this though.

And this message should have been in the 485 thread. Have a look at that if you haven't to resolve other issues you may have.

Again, not a legal advice, please consult a lawyer.

[GCKnowHow]

@ramchand: As you see there are two options. Predictions can always go wrong. Or something could happen that might delay the total process, there are no guarantee. You may want to take up the job and if everything goes well and if the dates become current then you can come back on H4, get EAD and get a job.
If that didn't happen wait for a year get H1 and come back.
You should feel lucky that you have so many options rather than no options.

Hello All,

I am a new member, so please forgive if posting in wrong thread. Please move it to appropriate location if needed.

I was hoping I could get some advise about my situation.
I am in my 6th year H1B with no PERM on file. Unfortunately, my company is shuttering so no approved I-140 for me. Other companies not willing to hire because H1B cannot be extended any further.

My options are:
1) Go out of the country for 1 year so that fresh H1B can be filed after I get back as wife's dependant on H4.
2) Go onto my wife's H4 and wait for my wife's PD(April 2009) to get current.

I do not want to sit idle for too long, so I am trying to get an estimate as to when my wife will get current. If it is going to be more than a year, I might as well go out of the country for a year. Separation from Spouse is hard, but sitting idle will be even harder . I already have a job offer from outside the US (with no Visa issues for that country).

Any thoughts/estimates from you are much appreciated.

-Ramchand

[RMS_V13]

Ramchand : My spouse and I have been away from each other for a year for same reason and time has flown by. My kids are in a different country, my spouse in another country and me in a totally different country. All due to the uncertainity in the GC process. PD Aug 2008 here.

@ramchand: As you see there are two options. Predictions can always go wrong. Or something could happen that might delay the total process, there are no guarantee. You may want to take up the job and if everything goes well and if the dates become current then you can come back on H4, get EAD and get a job.
If that didn't happen wait for a year get H1 and come back.
You should feel lucky that you have so many options rather than no options.

[winsomelad]

Ramchand : My spouse and I have been away from each other for a year for same reason and time has flown by. My kids are in a different country, my spouse in another country and me in a totally different country. All due to the uncertainity in the GC process. PD Aug 2008 here.

I totally agree with you, but not with separation. Human needs are not only GC and Money, it will be linked with lot of things. As, my personal feelings I can't leave my wife and children for the case of GC. Noways :-(

In your case, my suggestions are go to college and take some higher studies education, mean while you will get your Assistant ship, funding, OPT EAD or GC EAD. I know, it is bit difficult to spend bugs. But, Knowledge is also worth it in life.

[DonDron]

Ramchand : My spouse and I have been away from each other for a year for same reason and time has flown by. My kids are in a different country, my spouse in another country and me in a totally different country. All due to the uncertainity in the GC process. PD Aug 2008 here.

This is just sad.

I hope your GC comes soon and is worth living like this..

[pdfeb09]

natvyas,

For EB2, the Demand Data can not really tell us anything positive.

I expect it to look exactly as last month, give or take 25-100 cases. Essentially they will represent CP cases where the visas have been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place.

All EB2-IC dates that could be adjudicated are effectively Current. If a visa is requested by USCIS, it will be issued and immediately consumed to approve the case. Therefore it will not appear in the Demand Data.

If the numbers rise substantially in the Demand Data, it would indicate that there are no further visas to allocate to EB2-IC in December. I don't expect this to happen, although DOS do seem to have already allocated the majority of the 27% available for Q1.

If it takes 4-5 months to adjudicate a new I-485, then only cases submitted in July/August will be coming ready for approval. That is not a large number and the existing preadjudicated cases seem to be virtually all approved.

Only if the dates retrogress should we expect the numbers in the Demand Data to increase.

With this, would there be a way to tell how many Visas were utilized in a given FY? In other words, is there a way to find out if VISAs were wasted at the end of the FY? We have been using the change in the DD to speculate about the VISA allocation in a given FY, right?

[shreyasai2004]

Is DD is out ???????

[venkimakthal]

Is DD is out ???????

Not yet, waiting eagerly, may be tomorrow

[wantgcnow]

My gut feeling is that DD may come on friday and VB on Monday feeling

[bieber]

Both Demand Data and the bulletin should be out by Friday, they both might just come out on same day