EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[gkjppp]

seems like 2010 EB2I PD's needs to wait for atleast 18+ months ...HR3012 could move it faster.

[brishabh]

11th sep (not oct). Got the letter today.

oh well... thanks for posting though...

[vizcard]

oh well... thanks for posting though...

Sept 11 is definitely way ahead of the last confirmed case (jul 30). So we can say that by FY end it should go till 9/15. They generally say 6-12 months. So yah for me!!!

[kpt112107]

In last page of I-693, doctor filled dates in 6th column instead of 5th column. I asked doctor but he said that will be ok. But my lawer is saying that "I’d say get it corrected if you can. Lets try and avoid any future RFEs"

Any idea? Could you please check yours and let me know...

[self.coach]

Q, are you still here? Havent seen a post from you recently..

[bieber]

natvyas

if there will not be much documentarily qualified demand till Mar/Apr 2012, why would CO move dates only 6 weeks? It appears next 2 bulletins will have atleast 6 months cutoff movement before retrogression begins in either March or April

[Feb262009]

I believe the NVC notices are sent out because they wanna be prepared, if the H.R. 3012 becomes a law. Remember the notice itself expires in 1 year, but not the payment. If H.R. 3012 becomes law, they will need all this applications in their pipeline. With this in mind, I believe 3 -4 months of forward movement will be in Jan bulletin which comes in Dec. But the Feb bulletin will be forward/retrogress depending on the fate of H.R. 3012.

[president99]

Also, when march 2012 comes, wouldn't the 2nd QSP happen? Should that not make the retrogress towards end of Sep 2007 rather than Aug-1 2007. Gurus, can u enlighten us a bit more about QSP :
1) Does it happen through the quarter or in the last month of the quarter?
2) How much QSP is expected every quarter this year?...Tx

[natvyas]

Bieber and Feb262009

You have a point. The interesting thing in the Murthy News Bulletin dated 28th October is that Murthy also believes that USCIS is monitoring filings. "The DOS monitors the filings to determine whether anticipated demand matches the actual demand for visa numbers." However USCIS cannot be sure until it turns into actual demand. Owing to these 2 reasons I think we will see 2-3 months movement in next 2 months.

Cheers
Nat

[leo07]

QSP has not happened in the previous years. This year, it appears to be happening, I can't think of any other explanation from where visas could come for EB2IC.
So, If I assume that QSP is happening, I think 4-6k / quarter is a reasonable(probable) number.

oh for (1), it has to happen on the last month(3rd) of the quarter, but not necessary. As some one pointed out earlier, CIS might have gotten so efficient that they might as well do weekly spill-over (WSP??)

Also, when march 2012 comes, wouldn't the 2nd QSP happen? Should that not make the retrogress towards end of Sep 2007 rather than Aug-1 2007. Gurus, can u enlighten us a bit more about QSP :
1) Does it happen through the quarter or in the last month of the quarter?
2) How much QSP is expected every quarter this year?...Tx

[leo07]

I'm not sure how much of guess work they are allowed to do. Unless they have some credible information flowing from high up. IMO, it's more likely that CP's have a internal memo or an unofficial rule-book types document that requires them to send notices to Current PD+6 Months or Current PD+12months depending on their internal volume. Just something that I pulled out of no where, as your question made me think

I believe the NVC notices are sent out because they wanna be prepared, if the H.R. 3012 becomes a law. Remember the notice itself expires in 1 year, but not the payment. If H.R. 3012 becomes law, they will need all this applications in their pipeline. With this in mind, I believe 3 -4 months of forward movement will be in Jan bulletin which comes in Dec. But the Feb bulletin will be forward/retrogress depending on the fate of H.R. 3012.

[leo07]

I'm Qrious to know as well where Q is

Q, are you still here? Havent seen a post from you recently..

[qesehmk]

self-coach and Leo, I am very much around. Some of you have become so good at looking at data and all, I am not able to keep my self current with everything. So don't have much value to add over and above what others folks are talking about.

At a macro level I am quite confident that backlog through Jan-Mar 2008 will actually be cleared for EB2IC by sep 2012. Which means that after a brief lull or retrogression, the dates will start moving again. Basically as a rule of thumb I will say 1 year movement per year would be conservative movement, unless something fundamentally changes such as Kazarian memo rescended, 3012 is passed or economy jumpstarts - the chances of all of which are quite miserable as you can imagine!

So overall feel quite good about the movement so far. Don't think the point of retrogression has arrived yet. But I do think we are close to that. So max 1-2 bulletins will have good news if at all. And then the dates will settle around Mar-Apr 2008.

[qesehmk]

Guys if you would like, pls do vote for the charity to where to donate the ad revenue from November.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/poll.p...sults&pollid=8

[vizcard]

self-coach and Leo, I am very much around. Some of you have become so good at looking at data and all, I am not able to keep my self current with everything. So don't have much value to add over and above what others folks are talking about.

At a macro level I am quite confident that backlog through Jan-Mar 2008 will actually be cleared for EB2IC by sep 2012. Which means that after a brief lull or retrogression, the dates will start moving again. Basically as a rule of thumb I will say 1 year movement per year would be conservative movement, unless something fundamentally changes such as Kazarian memo rescended, 3012 is passed or economy jumpstarts - the chances of all of which are quite miserable as you can imagine!

So overall feel quite good about the movement so far. Don't think the point of retrogression has arrived yet. But I do think we are close to that. So max 1-2 bulletins will have good news if at all. And then the dates will settle around Mar-Apr 2008.

So if by Sept they finish off March 2008, I imagine they would need a minimum of 6 months to start FY13 as they won't have the luxury of PWMB ... which would mean that they would need to move it till Oct 1, 2008 before Oct 1, 2012... that would imply more than one year movement, right? What am I missing or misinterpreting?

[self.coach]

So if by Sept they finish off March 2008, I imagine they would need a minimum of 6 months to start FY13 as they won't have the luxury of PWMB ... which would mean that they would need to move it till Oct 1, 2008 before Oct 1, 2012... that would imply more than one year movement, right? What am I missing or misinterpreting?

Yes I think Oct 1 2008 before Oct 1 2012 is a safe bet.....unless the retrogression is bigger and/or subsequent movement is slower.

[yesman]

So if by Sept they finish off March 2008, I imagine they would need a minimum of 6 months to start FY13 as they won't have the luxury of PWMB ... which would mean that they would need to move it till Oct 1, 2008 before Oct 1, 2012... that would imply more than one year movement, right? What am I missing or misinterpreting?

Sorry, I don't understand this. PWMB were also PWBA until the beginning of this FY. So, how does it matter that would be no equivalent of PWMB for FY 2013? There will be a ton of people with approved 140s that can submit 485 as soon as they are current.

[vizcard]

Sorry, I don't understand this. PWMB were also PWBA until the beginning of this FY. So, how does it matter that would be no equivalent of PWMB for FY 2013? There will be a ton of people with approved 140s that can submit 485 as soon as they are current.

The premise of that statement was that CO had a pretty good handle on number of PWMB. Maybe this was a wrong premise. Assuming that statement is accurate, then this year's pipeline started with PWMB+Porting+some TRUE PWBA. Next Oct we will have only Porting + PWBA i.e. Business as usual skewed a little by Porting. Net effect maybe the same in terms of numbers but the difference is uncertaintyin terms of the actual numbers.

Without a clear handle on PWBA numbers (as he had with PWMB) math goes out of the window and now its a matter of gut check and how much he "feels" dates need to be moved ahead to make sure there's enough of a pipeline. Ofcourse if my premise that CO knew PWMB numbers is wrong, then what you say is true.

Regardless, the point of the post was that we would could possibly move to Oct 1, 2008 by end of this FY which also jives with the known Sept 11, 2008 NVC receipt date.

[leo07]

Thanks Q. It appears to be closed, I couldn't vote. I would have voted for Akshayapatra, which TK,Nishanth and other have already voted for and leading by a margin

Guys if you would like, pls do vote for the charity to where to donate the ad revenue from November.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/poll.p...sults&pollid=8

[imdeng]

IF PDs increase significantly in the coming VB then we should consider it as a confirmation of CO building the inventory in anticipation of HR-3012. We already have enough inventory to handle the coming SO - any more inventory is not needed for estimated spillover of 25K - but will be needed to fill HR-3012's requirements since the bill will be active retroactively. If the bill passes before this FY is through and CO has not built an EB2IC inventory of 85% of total EB2I allotment then CO will not be able to meet the provisions of the bill. Now, assuming we are getting a total of 52K EB2 visas in FY2012 (40K EB2 Quota + 10K from EB1 + 2K from EB5) then CO will need an EB2IC inventory of 0.85*52K ~ 44K.

This would mean that we have another 20K of inventory buildup left. Assuming 2.5K/month that comes to 8 months. So, IF CO is building inventory for HR-3012, then we should see PD moving to 03/15/08 + 8 Months = 11/15/08. Perhaps in 2 month steps each in next four bulletins?

PS> Please remember to call/write to/meet with your congress rep and senators to show your support for HR-3012.

[march272010]

Heard the perms applied by cognizant in 2008 nearly 500 got approved recently after auditing...dont know how many more like that

[pdmay2008]

IF PDs increase significantly in the coming VB then we should consider it as a confirmation of CO building the inventory in anticipation of HR-3012. We already have enough inventory to handle the coming SO - any more inventory is not needed for estimated spillover of 25K - but will be needed to fill HR-3012's requirements since the bill will be active retroactively. If the bill passes before this FY is through and CO has not built an EB2IC inventory of 85% of total EB2I allotment then CO will not be able to meet the provisions of the bill. Now, assuming we are getting a total of 52K EB2 visas in FY2012 (40K EB2 Quota + 10K from EB1 + 2K from EB5) then CO will need an EB2IC inventory of 0.85*52K ~ 44K.

This would mean that we have another 20K of inventory buildup left. Assuming 2.5K/month that comes to 8 months. So, IF CO is building inventory for HR-3012, then we should see PD moving to 03/15/08 + 8 Months = 11/15/08. Perhaps in 2 month steps each in next four bulletins?

PS> Please remember to call/write to/meet with your congress rep and senators to show your support for HR-3012.

I don't think CO will move dates in anticipation of a upcoming bill. He is doing what he is supposed to do at this time. Just build the pipeline up to certain point with some buffer, so that he can cover the ground for this spill over season with out wasting any numbers. Since he does not have any thing in the demand pipeline it is very risky for him to sit at this level with out moving dates further. He will collect the demand in smaller chunks in each bulletin until he sees enough demand to satisfy this years demand and next years Q1 approvals.

[Kanmani]

imdeng

Spillover visas are distributed purely by Priority date seniority. I think 85% rule ( as per HR3012 ) applies only to 40K.

IF PDs increase significantly in the coming VB then we should consider it as a confirmation of CO building the inventory in anticipation of HR-3012. We already have enough inventory to handle the coming SO - any more inventory is not needed for estimated spillover of 25K - but will be needed to fill HR-3012's requirements since the bill will be active retroactively. If the bill passes before this FY is through and CO has not built an EB2IC inventory of 85% of total EB2I allotment then CO will not be able to meet the provisions of the bill. Now, assuming we are getting a total of 52K EB2 visas in FY2012 (40K EB2 Quota + 10K from EB1 + 2K from EB5) then CO will need an EB2IC inventory of 0.85*52K ~ 44K.

This would mean that we have another 20K of inventory buildup left. Assuming 2.5K/month that comes to 8 months. So, IF CO is building inventory for HR-3012, then we should see PD moving to 03/15/08 + 8 Months = 11/15/08. Perhaps in 2 month steps each in next four bulletins?

PS> Please remember to call/write to/meet with your congress rep and senators to show your support for HR-3012.

[imdeng]

Thats even better. That would mean 12K + 0.85*40K = 46K of EB2IC inventory needed to meet HR-3012 requirement for FY2012.

imdeng

Spillover visas are distributed purely by Priority date seniority. I think 85% rule ( as per HR3012 ) applies only to 40K.

[scion78]

From the CO's perspective it is more risky for him to not have enough pipeline to fulfill the numbers under various circumstances (bill passes or doesnt pass). He always has retrogression to use as a tool in case he ends up moving the dates too far out. So again the larger risk is not having the 4-5 months of pipeline ready for any eventuality.