ROW - Implications Of Increased Past PERM Certifications On Future I-485 Approvals

I wanted to discuss the rate of ROW PERM Certifications and the potential effect on future I-485/** approvals.

The certification of the PERM is just the first part of the process. After that, an I-140 needs to be submitted and approved, as well as an I-485.

This subsequent process takes some time - perhaps as much as one year. It's also worth mentioning that, although FAD may be virtually Current for EB3-ROW, the OFLC PERM process is not - November 2015 cases are only just starting to be certified.

The graph below shows ROW PERM certifications over time, together with EB2 ROW Trackitt approvals for the same dates.

Attachment 976

It's clear there is a lag between an increase (or decrease) in PERM certifications and when that is reflected in I-485 approvals.

The graph below moves the ROW PERM Certifications forward by one year i.e. an October 2014 certification is now shown as October 2015 to take out the lag.

Attachment 977

As you can see, there is now a reasonable correlation between PERM certifications and later I-485 approvals (as shown on Trackitt).

It's also fairly clear that ROW approvals are likely to rise at sometime in the fairly near future, as the increase in PERM certifications is reflected by I-485 approvals.

Although (from other analysis) it appears the % of ROW EB2 vs EB3 has have decreased, the sheer increase in PERM certification numbers will still result in an increase. As an example, 60% of 100 = 60 but 40% of 200 = 80 and 40% of 100 = 40 but 60% of 200 = 120.

The last "hump" had a one year difference. The timing of the next increase is more uncertain, although it should be seen during this FY and into FY2017.

It very much depends on USCIS processing speed. Also, if the increase hits during spillover season, more ROW cases may be delayed until FY2017.

It may also partly explain CO's reticence to make EB3-ROW Current, or release Fall Across within EB3, if he is expecting a substantial increase in EB3-ROW I-485 approvals.

** March 2016 PERM certifications only cover through 29th.

Thanks Spec. I am kind of unsure of what you meant by your last line "It may also partly explain CO's reticence to make EB3-ROW Current, or release Fall Across within EB3, if he is expecting a substantial increase in EB3-ROW I-485 approvals.". Can please explain this little more?

Thanks

"Although (from other analysis) it appears the % of ROW EB2 vs EB3 has have decreased" spec what do you mean by this? isn't the trend for Row to file in Eb2 than Eb3 although i understand increased PERM means increased 485 and hence absolute increase in both EB2 and EB3 filings

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Originally Posted by Suva2001

Thanks Spec. I am kind of unsure of what you meant by your last line "It may also partly explain CO's reticence to make EB3-ROW Current, or release Fall Across within EB3, if he is expecting a substantial increase in EB3-ROW I-485 approvals.". Can please explain this little more?

Thanks

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Suva,

If there is a steep rise in EB3-ROW approvals to come, it makes it difficult for CO to calculate how much FA there is likely to be in EB3. That makes it more likely that any significant movement of EB3-I dates will occur late in the FY (with the problems that brings).

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Originally Posted by anuprab

"Although (from other analysis) it appears the % of ROW EB2 vs EB3 has have decreased" spec what do you mean by this? isn't the trend for Row to file in Eb2 than Eb3 although i understand increased PERM means increased 485 and hence absolute increase in both EB2 and EB3 filings

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anuprab,

An analysis of the last few OFLC quarterly data disclosures by minimum educational and experience requirements shows a slow but definite movement towards more cases that would be considered EB3 at the I-140 stage.

That may be a general trend, or just caused by a significant number of extra ROW applications under EB3 caused by the large COD movement previously. I can't tell at the moment.

Spec,

Is there a chance(call it as slim), the final CoD for this fiscal year move past 1st July 2009?

Spec,

I am a great fan of Q and you. You guys are really doing great work! Thanks for that.

EB3 Row trackitt approvals were 67 for last year and 82 for this year till March. Isn't that also pointing to increase in EB3 Row compared to last year?

Spec, hats off to you for your work. Q forum is really rich because of people like you and other gurus here.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by dreamze

Spec,

I am a great fan of Q and you. You guys are really doing great work! Thanks for that.

EB3 Row trackitt approvals were 67 for last year and 82 for this year till March. Isn't that also pointing to increase in EB3 Row compared to last year?

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I am not sure how you ran the report. When I ran the report for cases with Changeability to ROW between Oct 2014 and sept 2015 (FY 2015)the number of approved I-485 cases were 229. But for oct 2015 to oct 2016 it is only 89 cases.

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

I am not sure how you ran the report. When I ran the report for cases with Changeability to ROW between Oct 2014 and sept 2015 (FY 2015)the number of approved I-485 cases were 229. But for oct 2015 to oct 2016 it is only 89 cases.

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Good observation. From the numbers I am seeing everywhere, I don't see EB3ROW demand being materially different from last years demand. Given that RFE's are being generated for EB3I upto Feb 2005 and EB2I upto Jan 2009, it would be safe to assume that those will be cleared in the first phase of SO (June VB).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

I am not sure how you ran the report. When I ran the report for cases with Changeability to ROW between Oct 2014 and sept 2015 (FY 2015)the number of approved I-485 cases were 229. But for oct 2015 to oct 2016 it is only 89 cases.

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amulchandra,

dreamze is comparing like for like up to the end of March for each FY (see here). You are using a full Year for FY2015 to compare to 1/2 a year in FY2016.

If you run the report for Oct 2014 to March 2015 for EB3, CofC ROW, primary only, you will get a figure of 68 cases. I show 67 in my figures because user Heathuz shows 2 I-485 approvals. One is for EB3 under France chargeability on 20 Jan 2015. The other is for EB1B under China chargeability on 27 Oct 2014.

Your figures are also counting dependents in your Trackitt approvals. I do not do so, because Trackitt does not accurately reflect the real number of dependents and skews any calculation back to actual numbers.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Good observation. From the numbers I am seeing everywhere, I don't see EB3ROW demand being materially different from last years demand. Given that RFE's are being generated for EB3I upto Feb 2005 and EB2I upto Jan 2009, it would be safe to assume that those will be cleared in the first phase of SO (June VB).

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The only difference is that EB3ROW cleared 4 years of backlog and this year it has no where to go. Even after clearing 4 years of backlog, there has been no significance increase in demand.

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

The only difference is that EB3ROW cleared 4 years of backlog and this year it has no where to go. Even after clearing 4 years of backlog, there has been no significance increase in demand.

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now i am totally confused. what does all this mean for SO??

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

The only difference is that EB3ROW cleared 4 years of backlog and this year it has no where to go. Even after clearing 4 years of backlog, there has been no significance increase in demand.

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EB3Iwaiting/Kamakazee,

I keep hearing people trotting out that line, but it is slightly misleading.

The 4 year movement was in the (COD / FAD) for FY2015. It moved from 01OCT11 in October 2014 to 15AUG15 in September 2015.

The COD had been retrogressed for 4 months up to September 2014, having previously reached 01OCT12 in April/May 2014.

Other than Schedule A applicants, EB3 applicants need an approved PERM before applying for an I-140. Everybody has to wait for the I-140 to be approved before the I-485 can be approved, which in itself also takes time after the I-140 approval.

That process takes a considerable time, so rather than looking at where the COD might have been, you need to consider who might have had an approved PERM, Approved I-140 and an I-485 that had been pending sufficiently long to expect an approval.

Let's say it takes a year from certification of the PERM to approval of the I-485. In that case, those new cases (needing PERM) with a PD of about January 2013 (and earlier) to March 2014 might have been in with a shot of approval. Hardly clearing 4 years of demand (but probably more than 1 year).

It was slightly better than that on Trackitt. Just under 75% of EB3-ROW approvals in FY2015 were from PDs of 2013 or earlier. Just over 25% were from 2014, but there were considerable cases left from 2012 to 2014 still awaiting approval. There were no approvals with a PD of 2015.

Even now, PERM approvals of November 2015 have only just started - 3 months less than the current FAD. The PERM processing date has lagged the FAD for a year now.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Even now, PERM approvals of November 2015 have only just started - 3 months less than the current FAD. The PERM processing date has lagged the FAD for a year now.

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Agree. That is what your graph above proves. YT stuck his neck out by saying 20k SO. The ones suffering from Stockholm Syndrome say less than 10k. Would you take a middle ground considering you look into numbers deeper than anyone else I know?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I wanted to discuss the rate of ROW PERM Certifications and the potential effect on future I-485/** approvals.

The certification of the PERM is just the first part of the process. After that, an I-140 needs to be submitted and approved, as well as an I-485.

This subsequent process takes some time - perhaps as much as one year. It's also worth mentioning that, although FAD may be virtually Current for EB3-ROW, the OFLC PERM process is not - November 2015 cases are only just starting to be certified.

The graph below shows ROW PERM certifications over time, together with EB2 ROW Trackitt approvals for the same dates.

Attachment 976

It's clear there is a lag between an increase (or decrease) in PERM certifications and when that is reflected in I-485 approvals.

The graph below moves the ROW PERM Certifications forward by one year i.e. an October 2014 certification is now shown as October 2015 to take out the lag.

Attachment 977

As you can see, there is now a reasonable correlation between PERM certifications and later I-485 approvals (as shown on Trackitt).

It's also fairly clear that ROW approvals are likely to rise at sometime in the fairly near future, as the increase in PERM certifications is reflected by I-485 approvals.

Although (from other analysis) it appears the % of ROW EB2 vs EB3 has have decreased, the sheer increase in PERM certification numbers will still result in an increase. As an example, 60% of 100 = 60 but 40% of 200 = 80 and 40% of 100 = 40 but 60% of 200 = 120.

The last "hump" had a one year difference. The timing of the next increase is more uncertain, although it should be seen during this FY and into FY2017.

It very much depends on USCIS processing speed. Also, if the increase hits during spillover season, more ROW cases may be delayed until FY2017.

It may also partly explain CO's reticence to make EB3-ROW Current, or release Fall Across within EB3, if he is expecting a substantial increase in EB3-ROW I-485 approvals.

** March 2016 PERM certifications only cover through 29th.

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Amazing work Spec.

It gives a good insight into what we shall see in the rest of this FY and FY17.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Amazing work Spec.

It gives a good insight into what we shall see in the rest of this FY and FY17.

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Jagan01, can you please share your insight here?

Spec based on all the number crunching, can you give your view on whats in store for EB3I this year and next? I know things can change but at this point its all about seeing the light at the end of the tunnel be it in a year or 2.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Amazing work Spec.

It gives a good insight into what we shall see in the rest of this FY and FY17.

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Like any attempt to make sense of the situation with such limited data, I would say it is perhaps a bit tenuous and possibly over reaching.

It's bothered me for a while, so I thought I would share.

There definitely is a demand cliff looming above in the future due to OFLC's amazing throughput lately. Already, they have certified more than 55k PERM cases in just under 6 months this FY - that compares to about 79k last FY (which was in itself as high as seen since 2007).

Just want to clarify a few things for public benefit.

The "demand cliff" is more like coming off of unusually high throughput and restoration of normal demand. It is by no means any secular reduction in demand.

The demand is generally the same but the processing delays in PERM 140 and 485 create an appearance of high or low demand.

The secular demand does increase with growth in economy and reduces with recession. So that kind of movement coupled with processing delays create unusual ebbs and flows. It helps to understand this in order to predict future!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Like any attempt to make sense of the situation with such limited data, I would say it is perhaps a bit tenuous and possibly over reaching.

It's bothered me for a while, so I thought I would share.

There definitely is a demand cliff looming above in the future due to OFLC's amazing throughput lately. Already, they have certified more than 55k PERM cases in just under 6 months this FY - that compares to about 79k last FY (which was in itself as high as seen since 2007).

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Just want to clarify a few things for public benefit.

The "demand cliff" is more like coming off of unusually high throughput and restoration of normal demand. It is by no means any secular reduction in demand.

The demand is generally the same but the processing delays in PERM 140 and 485 create an appearance of high or low demand.

The secular demand does increase with growth in economy and reduces with recession. So that kind of movement coupled with processing delays create unusual ebbs and flows. It helps to understand this in order to predict future!

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I'd agree this is just another part of the "ebb and flow" we see. There doesn't seem to be an average year.

OFLC cannot carry on at the present pace for ever. I believe they are in a backlog reduction phase. Currently, they are processing more applications than are currently being submitted. Once the backlog is reduced, the processing pace will slow and there will be an opposite reaction.

Unfortunately, OFLC have a large backlog at present and it's not clear at what point they will stop the present processing rate.

Better news for the future is probably of cold comfort to those who have to endure what is likely to happen in the nearer term.

It remains to be seen whether EB3-ROW etc becoming virtually Current will affect overall receipt numbers in a sustainable manner.

PS - Perhaps I should have called it a "Demand Mountain" since it is going to increase numbers rather than reduce them.

After reading through all the posts I am unable to understand purpose of this thread. Can someone put 2 line summary of what is being said here?

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Originally Posted by suninphx

After reading through all the posts I am unable to understand purpose of this thread. Can someone put 2 line summary of what is being said here?

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Simply put, we appear to approaching a period where the increase in PERM certifications in the past will start to result in increased I-485 approvals.

That will be true for both EB2 and EB3. It has the potential to alter the available SO for both EB2-I and EB3-I in FY2016, depending on the exact timing of the surge.

The cause isn't necessarily an increase in ROW applications - rather, it is caused by a dramatic increase in OFLC productivity which started around July 2015.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Simply put, we appear to approaching a period where the increase in PERM certifications in the past will start to result in increased I-485 approvals.

That will be true for both EB2 and EB3. It has the potential to alter the available SO for both EB2-I and EB3-I in FY2016, depending on the exact timing of the surge.

The cause isn't necessarily an increase in ROW applications - rather, it is caused by a dramatic increase in OFLC productivity which started around July 2015.

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Makes a lot of sense. Given that there is no material increase in ROW Applications, if more ROW are applying in EB3 as compared to EB2, then there will be less SO for EB3 and more SO for EB2.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

After reading through all the posts I am unable to understand purpose of this thread. Can someone put 2 line summary of what is being said here?

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In short - EB2I and EB3I = FUBAR

It is like a traffic situation where you are sitting in a middle lane and all the other lanes are moving and when you start to move somebody else cuts you off. if you honk you will get a middle finger.

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Originally Posted by geterdone

In short - EB2I and EB3I = FUBAR

It is like a traffic situation where you are sitting in a middle lane and all the other lanes are moving and when you start to move somebody else cuts you off. if you honk you will get a middle finger.

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I was trying to figure out if there is any 'new' information. EB2I has grim outlook is known by this time.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Simply put, we appear to approaching a period where the increase in PERM certifications in the past will start to result in increased I-485 approvals.

That will be true for both EB2 and EB3. It has the potential to alter the available SO for both EB2-I and EB3-I in FY2016, depending on the exact timing of the surge.

The cause isn't necessarily an increase in ROW applications - rather, it is caused by a dramatic increase in OFLC productivity which started around July 2015.

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............ok.

We were talking about overall PERM demand earlier, so I looked it up.

Based on receipt numbers, it is increasing steadily over the years, with the odd blip. I can only base this an annual FY PERM receipts reported by OFLC. There is no breakdown by Country for this data.

FY2009 - 60,977
FY2010 - 43,984
FY2011 - 67,383
FY2012 - 69,738
FY2013 - 72,462
FY2014 - 74,936
FY2015 - 87,644

I don't know why the number for FY2010 was so low, or what caused the sharp rise in FY2015.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

We were talking about overall PERM demand earlier, so I looked it up.

Based on receipt numbers, it is increasing steadily over the years, with the odd blip. I can only base this an annual FY PERM receipts reported by OFLC. There is no breakdown by Country for this data.

FY2009 - 60,977
FY2010 - 43,984
FY2011 - 67,383
FY2012 - 69,738
FY2013 - 72,462
FY2014 - 74,936
FY2015 - 87,644

I don't know why the number for FY2010 was so low, or what caused the sharp rise in FY2015.

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2010 can be effects of recession.

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Originally Posted by anuprab

Jagan01, can you please share your insight here?

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Through the graphs, Spec has outlines the possibility of increased approvals from EBROW in the near future. The correlation between PERMs filed a year before and the number of EBROW approvals is striking.

So we need to understand that EBROW is not going to yield much SO in FY16 and FY17.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Through the graphs, Spec has outlines the possibility of increased approvals from EBROW in the near future. The correlation between PERMs filed a year before and the number of EBROW approvals is striking.

So we need to understand that EBROW is not going to yield much SO in FY16 and FY17.

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Jagan,

That's a pretty good summary.

I'd also add that, because the lag was 12 months last time, it doesn't necessarily follow that it will be 12 months in the future.

The lag will be affected by other factors. A previous spike at the end of 2012 had a 5 month lag.

If the increased March 2016 EB2-ROW approvals seen on Trackitt signal the beginning of a rise, then the lag this time would be about 8 months.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

We were talking about overall PERM demand earlier, so I looked it up.

Based on receipt numbers, it is increasing steadily over the years, with the odd blip. I can only base this an annual FY PERM receipts reported by OFLC. There is no breakdown by Country for this data.

FY2009 - 60,977
FY2010 - 43,984
FY2011 - 67,383
FY2012 - 69,738
FY2013 - 72,462
FY2014 - 74,936
FY2015 - 87,644

I don't know why the number for FY2010 was so low, or what caused the sharp rise in FY2015.

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@Spec, do we have FY2016 Receipt numbers for the 3 quarters yet? Where can we find that data?

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

@Spec, do we have FY2016 Receipt numbers for the 3 quarters yet? Where can we find that data?

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DOL haven't published them yet.

When they do, you will find them here under the Selected Statistics By Program tab.

The number of PERM receipts at the end of Q2 FY2016 was 46,519.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

DOL haven't published them yet.

When they do, you will find them here under the Selected Statistics By Program tab.

The number of PERM receipts at the end of Q2 FY2016 was 46,519.

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We could project that number through Q4 and come up with a 93K PERM demand for FY2016, which is more than any of 7 yrs numbers that you have posted. So, it looks like robust demand (which includes ROW) will reduce the possibility of SO to backlogged countries.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

We could project that number through Q4 and come up with a 93K PERM demand for FY2016, which is more than any of 7 yrs numbers that you have posted. So, it looks like robust demand (which includes ROW) will reduce the possibility of SO to backlogged countries.

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https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...tober_2016.pdf

Based on the new inventory numbers, looks like EB3I is up for another good year this year. Hopefully all 2005 cases will be greened! And anything that is good for EB3I is also good for EB2I. The two categories are essentially tied to each other due to the porting phenomenon.

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Originally Posted by vedu

Based on the new inventory numbers, looks like EB3I is up for another good year this year. Hopefully all 2005 cases will be greened! And anything that is good for EB3I is also good for EB2I. The two categories are essentially tied to each other due to the porting phenomenon.

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Looks like the PERM analysis (EB3 row: Eb2 row) ratio is not matching the pending inventory trends for EB row pending 485 inventory data. 2016 october inventory shows 22000 eb2 row cases pending vs 9000 eb3 row pending. Looks like the percentage of EB2 ROW is more than EB3 ROW. If the trend continues EB 3 I might receive some SO in 2017.

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

Looks like the PERM analysis (EB3 row: Eb2 row) ratio is not matching the pending inventory trends for EB row pending 485 inventory data. 2016 october inventory shows 22000 eb2 row cases pending vs 9000 eb3 row pending. Looks like the percentage of EB2 ROW is more than EB3 ROW. If the trend continues EB 3 I might receive some SO in 2017.

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Yeah, EB2 is screwed this year also!!