EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014
Latest Updates
- Jun 25 - Rumor about FB china spare visas for EB-C in 2014 (Original source Click HERE )
- The rumor doesn't have sufficient information and there is probably some lost in translation in the rumor.
- First, it talks about several hundred visas when FB china last year had almost 4K underutilized visas in FB.
- Second, it talks about rollover in same year - which the law doesn't really allow. The law allows rollover of FB to EB only during next year.
- Given that we suspect that EB China may indeed be eligible for extra visa to ensure 7% usage across FB and EB .... BUT ...... those visa will have to come from the SOFAD thus effectively reducing visas available to backlogged countries (India in EB2 and ROW in EB3).
- Given the lack of specific information the best that we can say is that the impact will be between 0 and 2K visas for EB2 and EB3. That should be approximately 1-2 months for each EB2I and EB3ROW.
- From EB2C perspective that would translate to a date advance between 0-9 months and same with EB3C.
- Jun 23, 2014 – Forecast Update (Trackitt data and DHS annual reports)
- Overall we don’t see a need to change our current forecast.
- EB1 is 1/3rd more compared to prior year. EB2ROW is 60% down compared to prior year. And EB3ROW is 50% more compared to prior year.
- We do see a caution in EB1 usage. EB1 usage will most likely exceed category quota and may end up hurting EB2.
- Last year Visa Office used 5-6K more visas than were available. The tool doesn’t depend on that. So if those 5-6K are available then tools prediction should be improved by approximately 3 months.
- Jun 10, 2014 – Updated Visa Bulletin commentary.
- May 13, 2014 (Trackitt, 485 Inventory, 485 Performance Data Update) - Observed 60% reduction in YTD EB2ROW approvals. 50% more YTD approvals in EB1C & 35% more YTD approvals in EB3ROW. Thus we expect EB1 to NOT provide any spillover and EB2ROW to provide all the spillover. EB1 may allow passing of some of the EB4/5 spillover to EB2.
- Mar 31, 2014 (Trackitt Update) - Observed approx. 50% YoY more demand for EB1C-I, 75% YoY less demand for EB2 ROW and 25% more YoY demand for EB3ROW. Respectively they will result in less SOFAD for EB2I, much more SOFAD for EB2I and almost no SOFAD for EB3I.
- Mar 3, 2013 (Labor data update) – Latest PERM data confirms 33% drop in PERM approvals compared to last year.
- Mar 3, 2014 (485 Inventory Update) – 485 inventory data for Q1 2014 is not quite conclusive. We don’t see anything that will affect our current model either –vely or +vely.
2014 Summary Trend Prediction
EB2I dates will see net forward movement in 2014 but will experience initial retrogression similar to last year. The dates should move in Q3 of USCIS year i.e. between Jul-Sep 2014. Overall EB quota is less than prior year (150K vs 158K). And secondly, significant backlog exists prior to Jun 2008 which is where dates ended in Sep 2013. However an overall slowdown in PERM approvals as well as overall slowdown in 140 as well as 485 approvals could be helpful in reducing backlog.
General Prediction
Tailwinds (+ve things)
· Overall economy and resulting job environment continues to dampen overall demand across the board. (This is now confirmed by labor reports that show almost 36% drop in PERM certifications across the board.)
· 10K extra visas compared to annual quota (150K vs 140K)
· Almost zero backlog in EB4 and Moderate in EB5
Immigration is like a balloon, you press it in one place and it pops out from other side.
We are seeing similar thing in immigration where since 2007, there has been a trend in EB3 candidates porting to EB2. Since 2007, the rules of spillover were changed to horizontal spillover, EB2 stopped providing any spillover to EB3. Thus EB3 backlog became quite acute.
Now portings are happening from EB3->EB2 in such a way that for retrogressed countries like India, the dates will remain retrogressed for much of the year except at the end of the year when the dates will move based on how many visas are left from other categories.
Luckily there are still other categories that are providing extra visas. Those categories are EB4, 5, EB1, and sometimes EB2ROW. So people shouldn't be worried about temporary retrogression. Generally every year these categories ensure that EB2IC dates move forward.
This year i.e. 2014, there will be 10K extra visas from FB that will be used in EB category. Last year that number was 18K. So in 2014, the movement of EB2I should be somewhat less than last year - if everything else being equal. However the fact that PERM, 140 and 485 processing are all slowed down. PERMs are down 33% compared to last year and 67% down compared to the one before that. This will certainly act favorably for backlogged countries.
The severe retrogression in EB3 will continue albeit the category will keep moving forward because EB3ROW hasn’t been able to generate enough demand. So although the model shows modest movement for EB3I we do think the real movement for EB3I will be 6-8 months. At the current trend, EB3ROW might get current in a year or two.
The effect of CP/NVC data:
The latest NVC data shows 9K EB2I CP applications in the pipeline. This data is in addition to the 485 applications as well as any possible upgrades from EB3I->EB2I. We estimate that around half of those CP cases will be pre 2009 increasing real pre 2009 backlog to about 16-17K. If one adds approximate 5K EB3->EB2 porting then the pre 2009 backlog comes to around 21-22K. That is quite a large number to overcome for dates to move into 2009. But with the tailwinds mentioned above the dates could very well move into Q1 2009.
2013 Visa Consumption Update
In January 2014 we saw 2013 Visa Statistics come out. A few more interesting observations from the 2013 visa allocations: (In the order of importance and implications)
1. Overall consumption was 3K more than initial visa allocation of 158K
2. EB2 consumption was 63K i.e. approx 18K more than quota. Thus 18K came from other categories.
3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014
4. EB3 overall consumption was 41K which was 3K less than its quota. However EB3I received 7K and inventory reduced by 12K. Thus 5K of EB3->2 porting for India was confirmed.
5. EB1 India ate up almost 10K while EB1 china consumed 6K. thus showing healthy demand for EB1 in 2014.
6. EB5 china consumed 6K thus showing healthy future demand for EB5
Overall it is safe to say without the 18K extra visas EB2I would have been crushed under all this demand and there would be very little movement. Fundamentally there are several -ve trends going on here.
1. EB1 and 5 have healthy demand.
2. EB2ROW has very strong demand - probably it includes EB3 porting.
3. EB2I has almost 5K of EB3I porting.
EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next.
Spec's Predictions for FY2014
As always, please take the following with a pinch of salt. It is a best effort, but the variables mean it can never be truly accurate and has wide error margins.
FY2014
EB2
Slow PERM processing by DOL means that there should be significant Fall Across within EB2 from ROW. There is a slight danger this could be reduced because PERM processing speeds have increased, but the acceleration appears to have started a little too late to affect FY2014 significantly.
Currently, EB1 approvals appear to have increased, but the data supporting this is not entirely reliable, so the scale of the increase is uncertain. Update: The approval rate for EB1 has now slowed.
I expect reasonable Fall Up to EB1 from EB4 and probably no Fall Up to EB1 from EB5. Ultimately, I expect this to Fall Down to EB2, although there is a slightly greater risk than normal of EB1 using some of the Fall Up if demand continues through the second half of the FY.
Based on the latest (uncorroborated) information from CO, around 15k visas may be available for EB2-I in Q4 FY2014.
Using the USCIS inventory figures, a 5% denial rate and 20% contingency, that would be enough to move to a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09.
3k cases would be left unapproved in FY2014 within the Cut Off Date.
If approved in October 2014, the initial allocation for EB2-I in FY2015 would be used. Unless there are extra FB visas available in FY2015, retrogression in November 2014 would be required.
The above does not include any extra porting cases that are not currently in the EB2 Inventory which could be approved in FY2014. A large number of those “appearing” in the demand seen by CO would be a headwind to achieving the 01JUN09 Cut Off Date. In addition, it would increase the number of cases falling through to FY2015.
Using the same assumptions as above, around 12k further cases remain after 01JUN09 to the latest Cut Off Date of 01MAY10 that EB2-I has ever reached.
A total of at least 3k + 12k + further porting cases/new applications (less contingency) would be required to exhaust the current known backlog in FY2015. At present, that seems unlikely.
Update:- Taken into account latest comments attributed to CO on June 9, 2014.
EB3
I expect demand from EB3-ROW to be sufficient to use their entire allocation in FY2014. That might be around 27k, once extra use by Philippines is accounted for. I expect EB3-C and EB3-M to also have sufficient demand within the WW Cut Off Date to reach their allocations.
UPDATE:- EB3-ROW/M have now retrogressed in the June 2014 VB and EB3-C has retrogressed by 6 years. That confirms that EB3-ROW/M will use their allocation and that EB3-C has already used their entire allocation for the FY.
Unfortunately for EB3-I, this means there will be no repeat of the Fall Across seen in FY2013. Numbers for EB3-I appear to be quite high when comparing the available allocation to the numbers remaining for a PD in 2003. EB3-I appear to have used significant numbers from their allocation in October/November 2013. It may be difficult for EB3-I to move beyond sometime in November 2003 at best by the end of FY2014.
Because of the overall 7% limit and some depression of EB2-Philippines numbers, EB3-Philippines might expect around 7k approvals for FY2014. How far this might move the Cut Off Date is more difficult to assess. They are now moving beyond July 2007 and and the historically large % of CP cases makes it very difficult to predict. Originally, some data suggested demand was very high for this period, but the intervening years may have led to a high level of abandonment from candidates forced to remain in the Philippines and for whom the job offer no longer exists. In addition CO may move the dates far further than necessary to build up a new Inventory. The high % of CP cases for Philippines may cause problems in doing this he has not had to deal with before.
FY2015
The following is even more speculative. Consider it as thinking out load. Please do not read further if you are of a nervous disposition or react badly to potential bad news
From such a long way out, the prospects for FY2015 for EB2-I look relatively bleak.
The announcements by CO of retrogression for FB2A-Mexico and likely retrogression of the rest of F2A makes it increasingly likely that there will be no spare FB visas available to EB in FY2015. That would leave EB with the base allocation of 140k. The following comments are based on that happening.
UPDATE:- Both F2A WW and F2A Mexico retrogressed in the June 2014 VB.
The large amount of Fall Across from EB2-ROW this year should be seen as a bonus, but because DOL have increased their processing speed, there is likely to be an equal and opposite reaction in FY2015 if that continues.
EB2-ROW in FY2015 are likely to have a demand that at least equals their allocation. There is a real danger that their demand will exceed it and they would also require some of the Fall Down from EB1.
If EB1 approval rates have increased and are sustained into FY2015, then EB1 might exceed their allocation in FY2015. That would require them to use some of the Fall Up from EB4/EB5.
With a lower allocation, EB5 would have an increased chance of using their entire allocation.
The worst case scenario is that EB1/EB2-ROW require all Fall Up generated by EB4/EB5. That would leave no spare spillover visas available to EB2-I and only the base 2.8k would be available. Porting cases would consume those and EB2-I would end FY2015 in a more retrogressed state.
In a slightly better scenario, fairly limited spillover to EB2-I would be available, but it would only allow a few months further progress to the Cut Off Dates from where they end FY2014.
If there is little or no spillover expected in FY2015, then CO will have to consider retrogressing EB2-I in October 2014 (or November at the latest). If he does not do so, all available visas could be consumed and EB2-I would have to be retrogressed very severely or made Unavailable for the remainder of the year.
Please remember, this is predicated on no extra FB visas and much higher EB2-ROW demand. This scenario may not happen.
Teddy's Predictions For FY - 2013
Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.
The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.
There is an interesting pattern on EB2 ROW approvals this year which may explain why there was no advancement in EB2 I/C dates. This is from Trackitt EB2 ROW approvals primary only.
Oct 2012 to May 2013 - 754
Oct 2011 to May 2012 - 588
This represents 28% extra consumption.
Now we do know that last year due to high volume approvals for EB2 I/C in feb / mar 2012 these were far more than the numbers could support so ROW cases approval did move to the next year.
So we should filter out Oct and Nov 2012 and then compare over the corresponding periods.
Dec 2012 to May 2013 - 527
Dec 2011 to May 2013 - 489
If we compare these time durations then the numbers are comparable.
EB2 Mexico and Philippines normally do not consume much in EB2, EB2 I/C would take their share. Easily we can see that ROW would take 8- 10K extra visa this year when compared to last year.
With this most likely Eb2 Row would not give any SOFAD, however the numbers do indicate that it would not take any SOFAD away either that would come from EB5 / EB1 including 12K out of 18K extra FB spillover. So even if EB1 does not give anything there is still 12K to apply. But seems like extreme caution is being exercised to use that. Overall EB2 would be SOFAD neutral this year. .
When is the first big sweep predicted for EB2-I in 2013
Guys , any predictions when the first swing might happen this fiscal for EB2-I.
And how far the first sweep might be. On another note , if there are qualifying EB3 to Eb2 porters with PD between 2006 thr 2007 , don't they have to wait a little longer until they get their 485 application in to the stream and wait for the process of pre-adjudication and RFEs etc etc ....What I'm trying to point out is if there were to be a big swing in to end of 2007 or 2008 then pre-adjudicated cases based on PD should get an immediate shot at getting the GC correct . Please correct me if I'm missing anything.
USCIS Processing Times Updated
They can be found here
As of August 31, 2012 the processing dates for EB I-485 were:
NSC - 4 months
TSC - 06 March 2012
Hopefuly that means when the new Inventory for October is released, TSC will have dealt with all cases until early April.
That should mean relatively few cases will not be in the Inventory and also most cases should be preadjudicated.
Anything good coming from the bad ?
Hello gurus
Does the retrogression of Eb2I to 2004, monthly quota allocation and slow movement forward until summer of 2013 actually reduce the potential rate of porting ?
Does the impending financial cliff look bad enough to contribute any additional spillover for Eb2I than what we would get otherwise ?
Thanks
