EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Hello Friends,

My PD (5/23/2011 EB2-I) is current as per July bulletin. I didn't file for downgrade last year.
I am wondering what the best course of action might be for people who never got to file because DOF was not current or accepted by UCSIS *but* whose dates may be current directly in the FAD chart ( e.g. May 15 to May 30 ).

I have decided to send the medicals along with the I-485. But wasn't sure if I should apply for EAD/AP also with it.

- Is it better to apply without EAD/AP forms ? Any pros/cons with this approach ?
- Any other learning that we could use make the process smoother ?

Just concerned that there will be another flood of applications in Oct '21 and the next couple of months provides a brief window of opportunity

Appreciate your feedback.
Thanks!

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Based on my experience so far:

- Stay away from downgrade based I-485(no PP and that perm pull is like a black hole - See image below)
- EAD /AP filing seems innocuous. You never know when and if you may need it so probably file it anyway. Con is spending money and as some people suggest - increasing workload.
- Sending medicals with 485 filing is a must. Do not miss it!

Nothing else specific comes to mind. My friends who were able to do straight filing are in a lot better position so just follow that path and sit tight.

p.s.:
Summing up popular opinions here - there are two main reasons a lot more people from Oct - Nov 2020 batch are not getting greened right now:
- Medicals were not included in Oct,Nov 2020 first time I-485, straight filers
- downgrade I-140s are stuck even after 8 - 9 months


Best to stay away from these two issues.

Quick question... Can I use my HSA account card for paying the immigration medical exam?

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Originally Posted by korlakunta08

NBK1976 ,

How long it took to get RFE documents for you once RFE is issued.

Mine they issued 6/17/2021 qnd not yet received.

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Both the time i got in 3 working days. check with your attorney they also receive a copy.

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Quick question... Can I use my HSA account card for paying the immigration medical exam?

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Yes, you can! I did even better. I paid by my credit card (earning 2% cash back), and then got it reimbursed through HSA account! Every penny counts!

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Quick question... Can I use my HSA account card for paying the immigration medical exam?

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If multivitamins from CVS are covered then why not immigration medical exams. its a legitimate medical expenses. I believe any medicines, medical expenses, lab expenses are eligible for HSA account.

I checked with her and she said not yet received

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

Both the time i got in 3 working days. check with your attorney they also receive a copy.

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I checked with her and she said not yet but I spoke to Tier2 officer and he said it is I-693

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Originally Posted by korlakunta08

NBK1976 ,

How long it took to get RFE documents for you once RFE is issued.

Mine they issued 6/17/2021 qnd not yet received.

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It took about 4 days for the RFE to arrive in the mail. I got the medical started the very next day of getting an email alert. Unfortunately, my lawyers delayed sending the documents out by nearly 3 weeks. I sometimes wonder if I needed them at all. It’s fairly straightforward. Good luck. You should expect them by Friday.

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Originally Posted by korlakunta08

I checked with her and she said not yet but I spoke to Tier2 officer and he said it is I-693

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That's good news, your application is all clear expect medicals. Respond to the RFE asap to take advantage over other applications.

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

That's good news, your application is all clear expect medicals. Respond to the RFE asap to take advantage over other applications.

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I have to receive the document by mail right

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Originally Posted by korlakunta08

I have to receive the document by mail right

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No need to wait for the RFE document. To save time you should start the booking appointment for medicals immediately. if the RFE is for I-693 then well and good. If the RFE is for something else then also you should submit medicals with this RFE response. Doctor don't need the RFE letter, they just need your credit card info.

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

No need to wait for the RFE document. To save time you should start the booking appointment for medicals immediately. if the RFE is for I-693 then well and good. If the RFE is for something else then also you should submit medicals with this RFE response. Doctor don't need the RFE letter, they just need your credit card info.

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I book the appointment this Friday , but doc said they need RFE dcoument

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Originally Posted by korlakunta08

I book the appointment this Friday , but doc said they need RFE dcoument

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First time hearing this. You should be getting the RFE letter before Friday. If not try to convince the doctor, this process will take some time about 7 to 10 days, you can provide RFE letter to the doctor later time before collecting the sealed envelop.

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

That's good news, your application is all clear expect medicals. Respond to the RFE asap to take advantage over other applications.

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@Admin - Please move this discussion to appropriate thread.

Hello Sivarama/Idliman/Aceman and other experts,

When people applied for downgrades from Eb2 to Eb3, how does USCIS count these numbers? Do they count the individual in both Eb2 and Eb3? If so, is it not a duplicate ? How will they be able to properly estimate the demand and move the dates if they count each downgrade application twice ?
Please let me know based on your understanding.

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Originally Posted by san_archer

So, do you recommend I stay put and hope the PD of 12/2012 EB2 will get current relatively soon, within the next 4 - 6 bulletins?

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I was just presenting a logical opinion and trying to refrain from making predictions. Too many variables and unknowns to predict anything with certainty and make any recommendations. Speaking of logic, this year's spillover did result in the FAD's for EB2 to move 2 years to 2011. All things being equal, with FY 2022 spillover expected to be as much or greater it would make sense to dates to move another 2 years? The good part about EB2 is that it would be unlikely for the dates to retrogress in the future as long as it stays behind EB3.

Maybe the middle ground is (And this is not a recommendation) to wait till October and then take a call based on the movements? Downgrading to EB3 now will take 6-7 months anyway (if premium isn't accepted). Delaying the decision 3-4 months will push everything back but will also provide more data to make a more informed decision.

hello gurus, long time lurker and first time poster. I could really use your help.

My PD is June 2014 EB3. Though the filing dates were current in Oct bulletin, I changed employers since I got an offer from a tech company. They start perm processing from day 1 and my case (EB3) is in prevailing wage determination now.

After reading some posts about retrogression and some people waiting for more than 12 years, I?m thinking if leaving the employer was a bad idea. My old employer is willing to take me back. I know we cannot predict the future but do you have any thoughts on retrogression. I?m okay with waiting a couple of years if my current perm takes time but just worried if it will be decades of waiting. Thanks for your time.

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Originally Posted by gammaray

I was just presenting a logical opinion and trying to refrain from making predictions. Too many variables and unknowns to predict anything with certainty and make any recommendations. Speaking of logic, this year's spillover did result in the FAD's for EB2 to move 2 years to 2011. All things being equal, with FY 2022 spillover expected to be as much or greater it would make sense to dates to move another 2 years? The good part about EB2 is that it would be unlikely for the dates to retrogress in the future as long as it stays behind EB3.

Maybe the middle ground is (And this is not a recommendation) to wait till October and then take a call based on the movements? Downgrading to EB3 now will take 6-7 months anyway (if premium isn't accepted). Delaying the decision 3-4 months will push everything back but will also provide more data to make a more informed decision.

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I agree and I like this approach. The less feathers I ruffle - the better. I have waited patiently, I can for another 3-4 months. I really appreciate you taking time to give me your thoughts on it. Things will move.

Quick question.....what is the process of getting Non Availability of Birth Certificate document from municipality ...

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Originally Posted by vedu

Yes, you can! I did even better. I paid by my credit card (earning 2% cash back), and then got it reimbursed through HSA account! Every penny counts!

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Everything I do, you do it better!!!

I did a direct transfer from HSA debit card to my checking, to pay for the cash needed for medicals.

And yes, my medical provider insisted on cash payment, so could not do the CC.

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Originally Posted by devarav

hello gurus, long time lurker and first time poster. I could really use your help.

My PD is June 2014 EB3. Though the filing dates were current in Oct bulletin, I changed employers since I got an offer from a tech company. They start perm processing from day 1 and my case (EB3) is in prevailing wage determination now.

After reading some posts about retrogression and some people waiting for more than 12 years, I?m thinking if leaving the employer was a bad idea. My old employer is willing to take me back. I know we cannot predict the future but do you have any thoughts on retrogression. I?m okay with waiting a couple of years if my current perm takes time but just worried if it will be decades of waiting. Thanks for your time.

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Go back to your old employer and file the i485 ASAP, you should be allocated GC visa in next 9 months if not by 30Sep2022.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Everything I do, you do it better!!!

I did a direct transfer from HSA debit card to my checking, to pay for the cash needed for medicals.

And yes, my medical provider insisted on cash payment, so could not do the CC.

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Ace, even I haven't done the best thing. The most optimal thing to do is to pay the bill from your regular account (with after tax money) and preserve the receipt....to let the HSA money compound tax-free for years (assuming you have invested it properly), and then submit the receipt for reimbursement after 20-25 years. You can get reimbursement any time as long as you preserve the receipts.:)

Another thing many people may not know is that the CARES/pandemic Act that was passed last year made sanitary pads HSA eligible. Can you believe that? You need to have all those receipts though! Here is the link for the news:

https://always.com/en-us/about-us/fe...red-by-hsa-fsa

Well, now I am digressing from the main topic of this thread!:)

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Go back to your old employer and file the i485 ASAP, you should be allocated GC visa in next 9 months if not by 30Sep2022.

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YTeleven - would your recommendation be different for June 2011 priority date (my priority date) ? My current employer will file PERM tomorrow, prevailing wage took almost 5 months. I am hoping that PERM will be approved without audit and I can file I-140/I-485 concurrently by January 2022. Would you recommend moving back to my previous employer ?

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Originally Posted by Immigo

YTeleven - would your recommendation be different for June 2011 priority date (my priority date) ? My current employer will file PERM tomorrow, prevailing wage took almost 5 months. I am hoping that PERM will be approved without audit and I can file I-140/I-485 concurrently by January 2022. Would you recommend moving back to my previous employer ?

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FAD for Jun2011 will be moved as early as by Oct2021 and it will be current forever in future.
If I were you I'll take 485J from old employer and file the 485 in Oct2021 and expect to get GC by Jul'22 and plan to join old employer at appropriate time.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Go back to your old employer and file the i485 ASAP, you should be allocated GC visa in next 9 months if not by 30Sep2022.

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YTeleven and other experts, does similar advice hold for downgrades also ? I have a Feb 2012 EB2 PD with an old employer. Wondering whether to
1) join old employer ?
2) If joining old employer, go EB2/EB3 route ? EB2 route involves waiting
3) Even if EB2 filing action date moves soon to Feb 2012, will EB3 route get me the GC quicker ? As EB3 Final action date is in 2013.

New company is working on prevailing wage, will file PERM in a few months.
Please advise.

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Quick question.....what is the process of getting Non Availability of Birth Certificate document from municipality ...

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am22tech get you that for $30. I didn't try but heard from friends.

https://www.am22tech.com/birth-certi...sa-green-card/

Folks who got greened recently - I got my medical RFE two weeks ago and I have completed the medicals now with I-693 ready to be filed and the response for RFE ready to go. My EB2 date (Jan-2011) is current in July, would you advise to hold off and send the RFE response packet next week so that it reaches USCIS as of July 1st or is there no harm in sending it right away/right now? I want to take the approach that would give me a best shot at quicker adjudication. Please advise!

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Originally Posted by Zenzone

Folks who got greened recently - I got my medical RFE two weeks ago and I have completed the medicals now with I-693 ready to be filed and the response for RFE ready to go. My EB2 date (Jan-2011) is current in July, would you advise to hold off and send the RFE response packet next week so that it reaches USCIS as of July 1st or is there no harm in sending it right away/right now? I want to take the approach that would give me a best shot at quicker adjudication. Please advise!

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Zen,

You should send it right away! Don't sit on it for even a day. I even recommend using the next day delivery. That's the only way you can get ahead of hundreds of applicants. I also suggest sending them in separate packages if you are sending for you and your spouse. I did ALL OF THE ABOVE, and got my GC approved within one day of them receiving the response.

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Originally Posted by MKPD2015

Hello Sivarama/Idliman/Aceman and other experts,

When people applied for downgrades from Eb2 to Eb3, how does USCIS count these numbers? Do they count the individual in both Eb2 and Eb3? If so, is it not a duplicate ? How will they be able to properly estimate the demand and move the dates if they count each downgrade application twice ?
Please let me know based on your understanding.

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Nobody is downgrading eb2 to eb3 that is a wrong analogy. It is like one buying both first class and second class ticket for the train. Goal of the passenger is to board the train. He has made himself eligible in both ways. He can decide which class to use.

As per the train management, they will have the number of tickets sold for each class since they don?t know which class passenger is going to choose, it may not be accurate.

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Originally Posted by vedu

Zen,

You should send it right away! Don't sit on it for even a day. I even recommend using the next day delivery. That's the only way you can get ahead of hundreds of applicants. I also suggest sending them in separate packages if you are sending for you and your spouse. I did ALL OF THE ABOVE, and got my GC approved within one day of them receiving the response.

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Thanks Vedu! Agree. But my date is not current until next week. Hence the question. Do you still think I need to send it right away?

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Originally Posted by Zenzone

Thanks Vedu! Agree. But my date is not current until next week. Hence the question. Do you still think I need to send it right away?

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I still think you need to send it right away. It may take a couple of days for it to reach there, then their mailroom may take a couple of days to process it, then there may be a weekend. By the time it reaches the officer's desk, it may already be July 1st. Even if it is not, he/she may clear it and put in the line to be approved on day 1.

Are you afraid that they will approve it before July 1 and then you will be in trouble?

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Originally Posted by vedu

I still think you need to send it right away. It may take a couple of days for it to reach there, then their mailroom may take a couple of days to process it, then there may be a weekend. By the time it reaches the officer's desk, it may already be July 1st. Even if it is not, he/she may clear it and put in the line to be approved on day 1.

Are you afraid that they will approve it before July 1 and then you will be in trouble?

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My application is right now handled by the local Field Office and my mail is literally to the same city so it will reach the same day through FEDEX for sure as it is literally 25 miles away from my home. But what you say makes sense. May be I will just send them off today and not over analyze it here. Also, good suggestion on sending separate packages for me and my spouse. I guess you say it because there is twice as much chance someone will start the processing as they see that RFE packet come through, right?

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Originally Posted by Zenzone

My application is right now handled by the local Field Office and my mail is literally to the same city so it will reach the same day through FEDEX for sure as it is literally 25 miles away from my home. But what you say makes sense. May be I will just send them off today and not over analyze it here. Also, good suggestion on sending separate packages for me and my spouse. I guess you say it because there is twice as much chance someone will start the processing as they see that RFE packet come through, right?

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Yours is a slightly different situation. I recommend to keep them separate because each RFE comes with some kind of unique barcode. And by keeping them separate, even a dumbest person can't make mistakes. Somebody reported on the forum that they sent two medicals in the same package, USCIS applied one correctly and lost the other one. Now USCIS sent a new RFE for the other medical.

We should make this as foolproof as possible assuming everybody is going to make mistakes. Please don't call me paranoid!:D

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Originally Posted by vedu

Yours is a slightly different situation. I recommend to keep them separate because each RFE comes with some kind of unique barcode. And by keeping them separate, even a dumbest person can't make mistakes. Somebody reported on the forum that they sent two medicals in the same package, USCIS applied one correctly and lost the other one. Now USCIS sent a new RFE for the other medical.

We should make this as foolproof as possible assuming everybody is going to make mistakes. Please don't call me paranoid!:D

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Makes sense. You still recommend sending it right away even though its local FO, right?

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Originally Posted by Zenzone

Makes sense. You still recommend sending it right away even though its local FO, right?

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Well...I am not so sure after all :confused:. If you don't want them to accidentally approve it before July 1, then you might as well wait. It's all part of being foolproof. What's a few extra days after waiting for a decade??:)

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Originally Posted by vedu

Well...I am not so sure after all :confused:. If you don't want them to accidentally approve it before July 1, then you might as well wait. It's all part of being foolproof. What's a few extra days after waiting for a decade??:)

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Exactly! Its just 4 business days.

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

YTeleven and other experts, does similar advice hold for downgrades also ? I have a Feb 2012 EB2 PD with an old employer. Wondering whether to
1) join old employer ?
2) If joining old employer, go EB2/EB3 route ? EB2 route involves waiting
3) Even if EB2 filing action date moves soon to Feb 2012, will EB3 route get me the GC quicker ? As EB3 Final action date is in 2013.

New company is working on prevailing wage, will file PERM in a few months.
Please advise.

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I will give a generalized response to this as it kind of applies to everyone wanting to join an old employer. At this point all the analysis of how do I get the GC quicker may not be as important as getting your foot in the door. GC will come at it's pace, but you can do certain things like sending in medicals along with the application to speed things up.

1) join old employer ?
It depends on your employment situation and where you are at in the PERM processing. If you are confident that PERM will be approved by Oct/Nov then you can wait it out. If not so confident then going back to your old employer makes sense. In case you are still unable to decide, It's best to make sure your old employer will take you back and then keep monitoring the VISA bulletin. The moment you see the next month's dates retrogress you should file your 485 with your old employer.

2) If joining old employer, go EB2/EB3 route ? EB2 route involves waiting.
There are pros/cons to both. As you pointed out EB2 route involves waiting. I believe next year they will move EB2 more aggressively compared to EB3 on a month by month basis. Don't assume though that in EB3 there is no wait. While you wait in EB2 to file your 485, in EB3 you will wait after filing your 485 for your i140 to be approved. so that's that.

3) Even if EB2 filing action date moves soon to Feb 2012, will EB3 route get me the GC quicker ? As EB3 Final action date is in 2013.
Refer point 2. Unless you have an already approved i140 in EB3 it's best to file in EB2. Filing for i140, waiting for receipts and then getting it approved by upgrading to PP may take about good 3 months if you are lucky. There are quite a few folks for whom the PP was denied 3rd or even the 4th time. Do you want to enter this loop?

Thanks vsivarama!

My Prevailing wage is going on, so PERM approval might come in a year! So looks like I should at least start exploring the move to the old employer to get the foot in the door.

I was thinking of filing EB3 I140 first using PP, get approved (hopefully) and then file I485.
- If PP is denied and EB2 filing date reaches Feb 2012, then apply using EB2.
- If PP approved, then apply using EB3

This approach though delays the getting foot in the door fast.

I had a great experience with these guys: https://www.yourmaninindia.com/?module=concierge

I am from a more bribe-me-before-I-talk-to-you part of the country - and don't have local contacts that could help. YMII folks sent an actual person to the municipality office, their fee included the "convenience fee" paid to the local official - and USCIS happily accepted the document that they sent me.

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Quick question.....what is the process of getting Non Availability of Birth Certificate document from municipality ...

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

No need to wait for the RFE document. To save time you should start the booking appointment for medicals immediately. if the RFE is for I-693 then well and good. If the RFE is for something else then also you should submit medicals with this RFE response. Doctor don't need the RFE letter, they just need your credit card info.

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I got my RFE document today