EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Kanmani and Q, Iam fairly sure Q would remember this.

- Porting was calculated way back as the reduction of EB3I inventory over a year minus the annual cap.
- This is a overstatement because we assumed that every case that fell into this category is porting.
- The only time this was done was back in 2011 and the number was calculated as 3K, this could never be done later on as CP numbers were mixed with inventory next year.
- Now back in 2010 - 2011 EB3-I inventory used to be 60K now its 30K, so you would notice that potential candidates for porting is kind of half.
- Now if you dig deeper into this most of the folks who are stuck now are either a) Having a 3 yr degree or a combination that cannot be evaluated as a 4Yr degree b) People stuck in companies which have a policy of 'No porting' even for people who are Directors by now c) People who are happy to be on EAD.
- Only people who are in category b) can potentially port even though the condition for EB3-I is absolutely horrible.

Just my personal thought is that porting number should not go up and even in the worst case scenario should stay at 3K because the number of potential porters is less now. Honestly there is no way to count upgrades for people who have not filed their 485 from Jul 2007 to Till date maybe an assumption that 2/3rds for India are ultimately EB2 is closer to reality.

Teddy

Nice to hear from you. I think the inventory is much more than 30K. I think it is closer to 60-80K if you count 2007 till 2014 that never had chance to file.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Kanmani and Q, Iam fairly sure Q would remember this.

- Porting was calculated way back as the reduction of EB3I inventory over a year minus the annual cap.
- This is a overstatement because we assumed that every case that fell into this category is porting.
- The only time this was done was back in 2011 and the number was calculated as 3K, this could never be done later on as CP numbers were mixed with inventory next year.
- Now back in 2010 - 2011 EB3-I inventory used to be 60K now its 30K, so you would notice that potential candidates for porting is kind of half.
- Now if you dig deeper into this most of the folks who are stuck now are either a) Having a 3 yr degree or a combination that cannot be evaluated as a 4Yr degree b) People stuck in companies which have a policy of 'No porting' even for people who are Directors by now c) People who are happy to be on EAD.
- Only people who are in category b) can potentially port even though the condition for EB3-I is absolutely horrible.

Just my personal thought is that porting number should not go up and even in the worst case scenario should stay at 3K because the number of potential porters is less now. Honestly there is no way to count upgrades for people who have not filed their 485 from Jul 2007 to Till date maybe an assumption that 2/3rds for India are ultimately EB2 is closer to reality.

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Thanks Teddy. I included those you categorized under (a) and (b) in my calculation, as I know many EB3 ers who have no option to upgrade, but well placed, well paid and living in 750k houses around VA.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy

Nice to hear from you. I think the inventory is much more than 30K. I think it is closer to 60-80K if you count 2007 till 2014 that never had chance to file.

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The USCIS inventory count is 30K but that is only folks till Jul 2007. I think you are right about the grand total. Typically in a year EB2-3 maybe 50-50 but filing in EB3 it seems is just an aid to get H1B extension or reserve ones place in the queue in reality the EB2-3 split is really closer to 2:1. The number of EB3's post 2007 is the main area where the porting is happening and those folks are not in the inventory yet.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The USCIS inventory count is 30K but that is only folks till Jul 2007. I think you are right about the grand total. Typically in a year EB2-3 maybe 50-50 but filing in EB3 it seems is just an aid to get H1B extension or reserve ones place in the queue in reality the EB2-3 split is really closer to 2:1. The number of EB3's post 2007 is the main area where the porting is happening and those folks are not in the inventory yet.

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Teddy you are right about EB2:3 split. In terms of porting though one doesn't need to be in the inventory to port. That's why I am at 5K.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy you are right about EB2:3 split. In terms of porting though one doesn't need to be in the inventory to port. That's why I am at 5K.

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Q what is your high level split of the 5k pre and post Jul 2007. For the full set of people 5k is a very reasonable number.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q what is your high level split of the 5k pre and post Jul 2007. For the full set of people 5k is a very reasonable number.

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All 5K is pre 2007. If we think about post 2007 then the number is much higher.

But the way I think about portings is in terms of its effect on EB2 SOFAD for non-portings cases. In other words if we start the year with 20K EB2I backlog and SOFAD comes in exactly at 20K ... how much EB2I backlog we will see? The answer to me is 5K because of the 20K 5K will be required for portings.

How do we verify this. ... its actually easier than you might think.

Just look at EB3I 485 inventory
Jul 2013 - 41K
Jul 2014 - 30K

That's 11K reduction. EB3I received 6K last year. But forget that because the timeline is Jul-Jul so not quite meaningful to take out 6K from 11K.

However I hope you get the point. In a normal year if there is 11K reduction and 3K is quota. Then where is 8K going? Even if you attribute 3K to various other reasons like denials abandonments or higher level of approvals under quota ..... it still leaves 5K to go to EB2 which is why those cases are disappearing from EB3I inventory.

Now consider this ... I am not even taking into account EB3 NVC data.

Thus 5K pre 2007 portings per year is a fairly ok estimate.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

All 5K is pre 2007. If we think about post 2007 then the number is much higher.

But the way I think about portings is in terms of its effect on EB2 SOFAD for non-portings cases. In other words if we start the year with 20K EB2I backlog and SOFAD comes in exactly at 20K ... how much EB2I backlog we will see? The answer to me is 5K because of the 20K 5K will be required for portings.

How do we verify this. ... its actually easier than you might think.

Just look at EB3I 485 inventory
Jul 2013 - 41K
Jul 2014 - 30K

That's 11K reduction. EB3I received 6K last year. But forget that because the timeline is Jul-Jul so not quite meaningful to take out 6K from 11K.

However I hope you get the point. In a normal year if there is 11K reduction and 3K is quota. Then where is 8K going? Even if you attribute 3K to various other reasons like denials abandonments or higher level of approvals under quota ..... it still leaves 5K to go to EB2 which is why those cases are disappearing from EB3I inventory.

Now consider this ... I am not even taking into account EB3 NVC data.

Thus 5K pre 2007 portings per year is a fairly ok estimate.

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Q good derivation for the porting number. I agree most of it is porting some other things that maybe playing out here are a) Spouse getting approved in 2007 and then getting citizenship and now dependent getting GC under FB b) Abandonment and returning to home country and c) Cross chargeability with spouse having country of birth other than India, this number is very significant, even if spouse were in EB3, EB3 ROW is in 2011 and had touched 2012 briefly.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

c) Cross chargeability with spouse having country of birth other than India.

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Good morning Teddy! This thing you mention reminds me of two of my friends who ended up marrying Koreans and Russians! I agree it's not that uncommon.

all these calculations and possibility that dates may not move post May 2010 even in fiscal 2015 is making me dizzy. Experts is there really no hope for people from May 2010 in 2015 fiscal! Do I have to wait till summer of 2016 to even file 485??

No offense to the experts, but right now they are working with limited data, they will have a better idea after this USCIS fiscal is complete.

I guess you are right but I am just so frustrated and trying to find some hope. Guess its just wait and watch right now, cant jump to any conclusions.

EB3I received 7,816 last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2012-vs-FY2011

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

All 5K is pre 2007. If we think about post 2007 then the number is much higher.

But the way I think about portings is in terms of its effect on EB2 SOFAD for non-portings cases. In other words if we start the year with 20K EB2I backlog and SOFAD comes in exactly at 20K ... how much EB2I backlog we will see? The answer to me is 5K because of the 20K 5K will be required for portings.

How do we verify this. ... its actually easier than you might think.

Just look at EB3I 485 inventory
Jul 2013 - 41K
Jul 2014 - 30K

That's 11K reduction. EB3I received 6K last year. But forget that because the timeline is Jul-Jul so not quite meaningful to take out 6K from 11K.

However I hope you get the point. In a normal year if there is 11K reduction and 3K is quota. Then where is 8K going? Even if you attribute 3K to various other reasons like denials abandonments or higher level of approvals under quota ..... it still leaves 5K to go to EB2 which is why those cases are disappearing from EB3I inventory.

Now consider this ... I am not even taking into account EB3 NVC data.

Thus 5K pre 2007 portings per year is a fairly ok estimate.

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Originally Posted by redwood

EB3I received 7,816 last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2012-vs-FY2011

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Thanks redwood. I was not being precise. Not sure if you got the point. So let me explain again ...

of those 8K ... roughly 2K would be from last quarter. So take out those 2K reduction from 11k. That's 9K for reduction in 2014 for first 3 quarters.

Assume full year will be 9K only i.e. EB3I has exhausted the quota. So that's 6K extra over quota.

So where have those 6K gone this year?

Answer is - portings, cancellations and denials. Denials are not usually more than 5%. So that's negligible. So basically its portings and cancellations.

I would rather have cancellations even out with the NVC data reduction that is not factored in here. So 6K is purely for portings.

The only caveat here is if EB3I received more than its quota. I think that's an extremely low probability this year because this year ROW was retrogressed in EB3 - which was not the case last year. Last year EB3ROW moved rapidly forward and hence was in the mode of building inventory.

Thus portings in EB3I to EB2I are approx 5-6K.

p.s. - Correction - actually an assumption is not required.

Comparing Oct 12/Oct 13 EB3I reduced from 47K->34K = 13K. Of that 8K is allocation and so 5K is portings + denials. As I said I let NVC data take care of denials. And so 5K certainly was the number for portings last year.

This year however, the picture is different.

Looking at Oct 2013 and Jul 2014 485 inventory one can see only 4.3K reduction in the inventory. On a full year basis that's 5.6K. Not sure how much NVC would be. But strictly based on this data it doesnt look like it's going to be 5K portings pre 2007 for year 2014. It actually does look like under 3K. Of course Q4 is where most of the action happens. So we can't say for sure. But if only consider what we know so far then indeed for 2014 the number look like under 3K.

Most likely 2014 GC quota ends at May 1st ,2009.Any guestimate on 2015 GC forward movement? Any Calculations?

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

Makesesnse.so endof 2015 or early 2016 i should get my GC.EB2 Perm to GC 6 Years ,it is leaning towards 7+ years... Not sure where is immigration reform/Executinve Order

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Originally Posted by redwood

EB3I received 7,816 last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2012-vs-FY2011

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Hello Q,

Any idea when will TSC start issuing EAD.It is already 45 days.

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by helooo

Hello Q,

Any idea when will TSC start issuing EAD.It is already 45 days.

Thanks!

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Sorry heloo. No idea about that. Did you try calling them up?

45 days is not a lot of time for you to be concerned anyway unless you are running out of time for something else?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Sorry heloo. No idea about that. Did you try calling them up?

45 days is not a lot of time for you to be concerned anyway unless you are running out of time for something else?

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I have Canadian PR and we have to reenter to Canada before August 31st and then stay there for next three years to keep that.I thought we"ll get GC before that and surrender the CA PR but things are not clear at this point.

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Originally Posted by helooo

I have Canadian PR and we have to reenter to Canada before August 31st and then stay there for next three years to keep that.I thought we"ll get GC before that and surrender the CA PR but things are not clear at this point.

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In that case call TSC up and ask the status on your application.

p.s. - Be careful about trying to keep hand on two stones. There are some horror stories at US canada border where people went to Canada for getting PR while their US GC was being processed and the US border folks cancelled their H1 and everything because they didn't like the fact that the person was trying to do both at the same time. You can google those online. Don't mean to scare you. Just want you to be aware of it.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

In that case call TSC up and ask the status on your application.

p.s. - Be careful about trying to keep hand on two stones. There are some horror stories at US canada border where people went to Canada for getting PR while their US GC was being processed and the US border folks cancelled their H1 and everything because they didn't like the fact that the person was trying to do both at the same time. You can google those online. Don't mean to scare you. Just want you to be aware of it.

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Yes,I heard that and frankly I don't want to live in CA anyways.Even I was asked lot of questions when I came from CA last time.Last year lot of my friends who filed for first time got EAD in 30-35 days and GC in 50-60days but it's different this year.Thats why I was trying to get your opinion.

Spec, Q and Gurus...
Do you think TSC will be able to process cases beyond the cases current in Jul bulletin (i.e. cases from 1st Sep to 22nd Jan) before NSC starts eating up visas from 22Jan2009-01May2009 from 01SEP? Is TSC having too many cases prior to 01SEP2008 that they are not able to handle?

Hi,

My Pd is going to be current next month, and I am going to file my i-485(TSC) in first week of September. What are my chances of getting greened this year?

Thanks!!!

Gurus,

What are the chances of getting EAD for June 15 2010 EB2I next year ?

Appreciate your response.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Slim to none. At the current state of affairs, some July filers may receive GCs in October, that's about it. No chance for August and September filers.

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Are you serious sports???

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Hi,

My Pd is going to be current next month, and I am going to file my i-485(TSC) in first week of September. What are my chances of getting greened this year?

Thanks!!!

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If you file it on Sep 2,2014 and the dates don't retrogress for the rest of the year you have a chance. If the dates retrogress in Nov as mentioned by VO the chances are slim to none.

Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

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Originally Posted by EB2EB2

Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

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You don't give sufficient information.

What is the RD for your I-485?

Is the Medical expired?

Have you received and replied to a RFE if applicable?

If there is no RFE required, it's probably 50/50 unless the processing speed picks up (which may happen).

You will only be current from September 1, 2014 so there is likely no more than a 2 month window for your case to be approved.

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Originally Posted by EB2EB2

Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

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Although there is no guarantee... there is a high chance that you will get your GC in Sept./Oct. time frame. You will be current starting 1st of Sept. 2014. Hopefully the dates will either stay put or move ahead in Oct. (new FY visa numbers). Most likely, the 2008 backlog will be cleared before most of the 2009ers start getting their visas.

I assume you have replied to the general RFE that everybody's been getting...

Edit: I am also assuming that the rate of approvals will pick up very soon and continue to be great thereafter ..

Edit:

Spec, I figured from his older posts that he had already filed for AOS during the Feb/March 2012 period.. other than the slow pace of approval, do you see any issue with his case? Like bumping up against the available visa number limits .. ?

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Originally Posted by EB2EB2 View Post
Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

You don't give sufficient information.

What is the RD for your I-485?

Is the Medical expired?

Have you received and replied to a RFE if applicable?

If there is no RFE required, it's probably 50/50 unless the processing speed picks up (which may happen).

You will only be current from September 1, 2014 so there is likely no more than a 2 month window for your case to be approved.

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Hi Spectator, RD for my I-485 is Feb 10th, 2012. Medical was expired, got the RFE, and responded to RFE on July 11, 2014.

is there is any rule or practice that 2008 backlog is to be cleared before 2009?
I guess that once current all PD will have equal choice

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Originally Posted by pdfeb09

Although there is no guarantee... there is a high chance that you will get your GC in Sept./Oct. time frame. You will be current starting 1st of Sept. 2014. Hopefully the dates will either stay put or move ahead in Oct. (new FY visa numbers). Most likely, the 2008 backlog will be cleared before most of the 2009ers start getting their visas.

I assume you have replied to the general RFE that everybody's been getting...

Edit: I am also assuming that the rate of approvals will pick up very soon and continue to be great thereafter ..

Edit:

Spec, I figured from his older posts that he had already filed for AOS during the Feb/March 2012 period.. other than the slow pace of approval, do you see any issue with his case? Like bumping up against the available visa number limits .. ?

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Is there

bvsamrat,

In general, for the applicants from non-retrogressed countries, they process FIFO. During Spill-over season, it is expected that they approve in ascending order,the oldest PD first . Since the applications are spread over numerous adjudicators, it is impossible to do so.

To summarize, we really don't know.

Hi,

This could be stupid question ... but i'm not sure, where ever i read - most of the guys were stating -- eb4 / eb5 will be using all their visa's(spill over will be less). I'm really confused over here as when i checked inventory from oct 2013 to july 2014, overall usage seems less for these 2 categories..
e.g.
Eb4 -
Oct 2013 jan 2014 apr 2014 jul 2014
1062 1353 1187 1529

Eb5
18 654 59 180

if i add all these figures then also total visa allocation for these categories will be
eb4 = 5131
eb5 == 911

Considering both these categories are given around 10000 visa's each, why we shouldn't expect a good spill over from these categories?

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Originally Posted by Fedup14

Hi,

This could be stupid question ... but i'm not sure, where ever i read - most of the guys were stating -- eb4 / eb5 will be using all their visa's(spill over will be less). I'm really confused over here as when i checked inventory from oct 2013 to july 2014, overall usage seems less for these 2 categories..
e.g.
Eb4 -
Oct 2013 jan 2014 apr 2014 jul 2014
1062 1353 1187 1529

Eb5
18 654 59 180

if i add all these figures then also total visa allocation for these categories will be
eb4 = 5131
eb5 == 911

Considering both these categories are given around 10000 visa's each, why we shouldn't expect a good spill over from these categories?

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Fedup14,

Welcome to the forum.

No question is ever stupid.

Here's my thoughts.

The quality of the data in the USCIS Inventory is slightly questionable, but the main point to note is that it only covers those people who have chosen to adjust status in the USA by filing an I-485.

Notably missing from the USCIS data is the number of cases that undergo Consular Processing, which is signifiacant for some Categories and Countries.

From last FY figures, the % using AOS was:

EB4 - 80%
EB5 - 15%

Your figures would become :

EB4 - 5,131 / 80% * 100% = 6,414

In FY2013, EB4 used 6,446 visas.

EB5 - 911 / 85% * 100% = 6,073

In FY2013, EB5 used 8,564 visas.

Now looking at the trends for each Category, we could look at the underlying petition approvals for each Category.

For EB4, that would be the I-360 and for EB5 that would be the I-526.

EB4 (I-360)

From the USCIS Dashboard, the average monthly Receipts and Completions are:

Receipts

FY2012 - 1,599
FY2013 - 1,681
FY2014 - 1,661 (figures available to May 2014 only)

Completions

FY2012 - 1,222
FY2013 - 1,958
FY2014 - 2,030 (figures available to May 2014 only)

The data available suggests that EB4 approvals will be fairly level. That could give as much as 3.5k spillover to EB1. DOS doesn't release much info about EB4 approvals during the year.

EB5 (I-526)

Here, the increasing backlog of I-526 cases is probably the best indicator. Currently, the USCIS figures state that it takes 13.2 months to process an I-526, so the recent figures are at least a year away from showing up as approvals.

Backlog

May 2012 - 2,776
May 2013 - 6,228
May 2014 - 9,668

Given that the approval rate for an I-526 has generally been in the 80-85% range and that each I-526 approval leads to about 3 EB5 visas being used, it is fairly clear that EB5 will exceed their allocation of about 10k in the very near future.

Charles Oppenheim has already warned that he expects to have to retrogress EB5-China (who use 90% of EB5) as early as June 2015 and not later than August 2015 next year. See this article (July 16, 2014) and this article.

Hence, there should be no expectation of spare visas from EB5 going forward.

Finally, it's not yet clear yet whether EB1 will need to use some of any Fall Up from EB4/EB5. That would reduce the amount available to EB2.

Hope that helps and clarifies the situation and perhaps explains why people to not have great hopes for EB5 in particular.

No sure if someone else posted this before. If so, please ignore. Latest I485 inventory has been released

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-July2014.pdf

Spec/Q/gurus
Based on the latest inventory data and approvals so far, when do you think the TSC will start approving Aug current cases or Are they going to wait till Sep 1st?

Office of Foreign Labor Certifications Releases Update of Prevailing Wage Determination Factsheet for 3rd Quarter of 2014

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...Y2014_Q3TD.pdf

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Originally Posted by rka_72

Spec/Q/gurus
Based on the latest inventory data and approvals so far, when do you think the TSC will start approving Aug current cases or Are they going to wait till Sep 1st?

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rka - unfortunately I can't answer that question.

Generally speaking a service center may not be able to process some cases even though they are current. The reason is simple ... the service center also must prioritize and schedule all the current cases and that too by how far they are along in processing. Long story short ... even if TSC starts with Aug currrent cases in September - I wouldn't blame them. I do not know their load factor and what not.

The All Forms and Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) data for Q3 FY2014 has been released.

Folks,

Does anyone know if changing in address and filing AR-11 delays the processing of application? I have a June'08 priority date and has been waiting since July'14 for any update on the RFE response sent.

Regards,

No, but once AR11 is sent, call USCIS and confirm the change of address on file in their system. You should also receive a confirmation email on the change of address also.

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Originally Posted by docgana

Folks,

Does anyone know if changing in address and filing AR-11 delays the processing of application? I have a June'08 priority date and has been waiting since July'14 for any update on the RFE response sent.

Regards,

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