Quote:
Originally Posted by RMS_V13
Online status for my application hasnt changed from initial review.
1)What is L2? How do I contact?
2)How do I raise the matter for Senator Review?
Please help. Thanks
Printable View
Quote:
Originally Posted by RMS_V13
Online status for my application hasnt changed from initial review.
1)What is L2? How do I contact?
2)How do I raise the matter for Senator Review?
Please help. Thanks
almost,Quote:
Originally Posted by almost
We, although my pd is 2 months later than that of yours, I included May, June, up to July15 into the we and we cannot count for the next year's quota. Those days are all gone and the regular quota movements are history.
Nowadays annual allocation of EB2-India Visas are absorbed by porters' , so obviously we must wait until next spillover season. (Assuming, but not wishing no movement next month)
Makesesnse.so endof 2015 or early 2016 i should get my GC.EB2 Perm to GC 6 Years ,it is leaning towards 7+ years... Not sure where is immigration reform/Executinve Order
Will there be movement in the next month? So assuming that the current movement will take care of inventory through April 30th 2009, should they not move dates for approximately (2800/12) if they assign monthly quota for next year in October. The only reason why they would not is porting demand. Are there other reasons besides the randomness associated with the unknowns in the black box.
You are assuming that :Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
a) Every case with a PD earlier than 01MAY09 will be ready to be adjudicated before the end of September 2014.
b) That there are sufficient visa numbers available in FY2014 to approve all cases with a PD earlier than 01MAY09.
I'm not sure I would agree with either assumption.
Generally, visas run out before the end of September, but cases can still be adjudicated during the remainder of September and left in the pending file until the new FY allocation becomes available in October. CO must then decide how much he is prepared to use when he sets the COD.
There are also a significant number of new applications that have been submitted within even the July/August Cut Off Dates. They will become ready to be adjudicated at some point.
Last year (FY2013), the COD moved to 15JUN08 by the end of the FY, but as many as 6-7k of those had to be approved within this FY's (FY2014) allocation.
I looked at the forward movement and.....oh well...life goes on.
Spec, what I gather from your post is that it is highly unlikely for any forward movement in October. The movement to May 1, 2009 assumes that there will be some applications that will be carried forward to next year. The intention is to perhaps not waste any Visas for 2014, so there would be some buffer that will be carried forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
vyruss,Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
That's correct.
I don't think or expect that everybody will agree with that opinion, but if a contingency is not built into the COD movement, then visas would potentially be wasted.
People will probably differ in their view of the size of that contingency and thus the numbers that must fall through to FY2015.
I may be wrong in my view.
Spec and other experts: Could you give your take on what you see happening with EB2 porters for July and Aug. Especially given how TSC has been quick to send out FP notices right after receipts where as NSC took about 5 weeks after receipts. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I assume you mean those that filed for the first time in July and August.Quote:
Originally Posted by jdoe99
Some lucky ones may get an approval, but I wouldn't bank on it.
Looking at EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW, there are some approval times less than the probable window available to the end of October. The average approval time for both those Categories is more than 4 months, so I think it is pot luck. EB3-ROW is a better analogy, since they will already have an approved I-140 and the processing time purely reflects that for the I-485.
Thanks Spec. I kind of assumed that approval is not happening this year except for a few lucky ones who sneak through.
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
You are probably right about assuming that there will be no quota available for anything in the begining of the year but there have been cases in the past where this has happened. I think I saw some cases on trackitt sometime ago. It would suck bigtime, for me especially, if I have to wait till next spillover season for the GC...uggghhh ..... dont even want to think about that ...... but, knowing my luck it would probably be the case.
Has anyone seen the latest demand data (for Sep) or its not released?
DoS stopped publishing it to public.Quote:
Originally Posted by rka_72
As much as it is heart-breaking to see that Gurus like Kanimani did not get current this time around, I would like to re-affirm that there is some has been some good movement for this year so keep the hopes high. Seems like EB2I follows the Goldilock's theory; at the end we tend to get just enough luck to get a lot of people greened - never too low, never too high. As always, some people are always left behind.
So I am optimistic. Despite the dire situation predicted for next year, I think a lot of things can happen from now and next summer. There might be executive action from the president, there could be legislative relief. I mean who knows.
Cheers
Iatiam
TSC's slow pace will probably hit the filers with most PDs beyond 31 Aug 2008 since from 1st Sep NSC will take up 22 Jan 2009 onwards cases as well. If TSC doesn't catch up in remaining part of Aug, there will be hardly any visas left and for most in TSC its over until next year. :(
Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
My PD is 6/16/2008.We filed our 485 first time on 6/30/14 got FP notice for 8/4/14.We did early FP on 7/18/14.It says Initial review for EAD/AP since 7/1/2014 and Acceptance on 7/3/14 for 485.When can we expect EAD or if there is any possibility for GC?
Thanks
heloo - It would be reasonable to expect a GC in Sep if not in Oct. You should definitely be greened this year only.Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
Two problems with your approach:Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
-New applicants: Those who never filed an I-485 would not need to await an RFE
-Aggressive applicants: Nothing in the law compels you to wait for USCIS to issue an RFE before sending them updated medicals. In fact a good case can be made that if your I-485 is current you have a responsibility to send the new medicals to remain a "bona fide" applicant for adjustment of status.
USCIS would essentially have to make a regulation saying that an expired medical is only expired when USCIS says so on an RFE.
justvisiting,Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
I don't think new applicants would be a problem. Their I-485 would take around 4 months to process, by which time the COD would have retrogressed back to to the "true" COD. Any applicants beyond 01MAY10 would, by definition be new applicants anyway. For applicants who got a chance to file with a late PD, submitting an I-693 with the I-485 would essentially be a waste of money.
Sure, it's true that applicants do not have to wait for an RFE to send in an updated I-693. I think most will wait for an RFE, since USCIS strongly encourages it. By the time the Medical is received and the case gets to an adjudicator, the COD might have retrogressed back to the "true" COD anyway. I don't think it is any big deal. I'm not sure CO could extend the COD for more than 2 months and he can internally retrogress to the 3rd month COD in the second month if necessary. If the COD doesn't get pulled back in a timely fashion, then it would be 2012 all over again.
There's no compulsion to always have a valid I-693 at all times. It doesn't make the I-485 any less "bone fide" if it is missing or expired. An RFE can be issued for it in either case. An expired or missing I-693 just means the case cannot be approved until the deficiency is rectified. I don't see that a new regulation is required. It is covered in the policy manual already.
Quoting based on Trackkitt approvals. SEVERAL applicants including myself got approved yesterday, we were getting anxious since everyone around us seem to be getting theirs. This is the highest we have seen since July 1st. May be TSC was waiting for the Sept VB to start processing EB2 I. If the trend continues, early 2009 applicants can get their approval.
My opinion based on why TSC took so long is, the cases were not subjected to background checks in advance anticipating movement. BCs had to be re-run causing the extra delay. I feel the Additional Review status can be attributed to this. To support this, L2 told me that my app was not pre-adjudicated and he can't tell whats going on, except someone "looked" which is consistent with subjecting my file to some kind of processing
Hi All
I have been a silent follower of this forum. It is doing a great job in throwing lot of light into all these chaos. Trying and finding some (lot of) patterns and predictions, taking out wild guesses. Good job guys, keep it up.
Now, I have a thought/ questions:
Many gurus say that there is no need for CO to build up inventory and he has enough for FY15.
With the latest visa bulletin moving the EB2-I dates to May 01, 2009, by the end of sept, my guestimate is that CO would be left with around 13K inventory. (Is this correct?). If not, what is the figure expected. (Out of these 13K, all of them may not be 100% fit for GC for some reason or other. Or why is that we still case from 2004, 5 and 6 in 485 pending inventory?. My guesstimate here is 1K no-fit cases)
Following the last few years trend, EB2-I is getting around 18K to 20K every year.
This being the case, for FY15, CO would still need around 6 to 8K more. (So as not to waste any visas). Assuming 2K from porting (again, is this correct?), he would still need around 4 to 6K more.
Allowing for processing time of 4 months, he would need to call these IN 4 months before last quarter of FY15. That should be somewhere in March or April. (Further I believe USCIS will be overloaded with H1B season).
So I believe (Hope) there is a chance for inventory buildup sometime early next spring.
I believe CO would rather collect and have more inventoried not so as not to waste VISAs.
Am I missing something (or lot of things?) Gurus, any thoughts on these lines?
Light@EOT welcome to the forum. Please read the discussion between Spec & me in the last 5-6 pages regarding inventory build up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Light@EOT
Welcome Light. Yes there is a 60% chance as I see it today. If at end of 2015 EB2I only reaches Q1 2010 then CO doesn't have to build inventory during spring of 2015. He can wait until Sep of 2015.Quote:
Originally Posted by Light@EOT
So the question is will EB2I reach at least Q1 2010 by Sep 2015. Right now it is a bit premature to predict. But i think there is a slightly more than 50% chance that it will.
Light@EOT - Welcome to the forum and excellent first post BTW.
Next year is a grey area mostly because we don't know how bad it is going to be. The headwinds are considerable. We are carrying unusually high amounts of inventory in EB1 and EB2-ROW/M/P. A lot of cases are stuck in the PERM slowdown. If next year turned out to be the one that clears the PERM pipeline and draws down the high inventory levels, then we might be left with very little spillover. If spillover is small enough then there will be no need for inventory buildup in FY2015.
OTOH - something of other unanticipated factor comes out every year. High SO this year because of PERM slowdown was not anticipated by many. If you see Matt's spreadsheet, his target dates kept going up through the year with each revision. Something else might come out to be significant next year. Any takers for crackdown on EB1C misuse :-)
... but in this case, ( assuming EB2I gets around 18K) there would be none (or very little) left to start the new FY 2016 with... will that be a desirable case for CO... just a thought...Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Further, spring is when H1 season starts and to avoid "Rush of workload" wont it be better for CO to collect it little earlier ( wishful thinking)
sportsfan33 - you think 5K new + porter between now and then ( then being May 2010 PD assuming we reach there ...)Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I don't see CIS doing inventory build up in spring 2015.
There are enough reasons. 1. NOT all applicants prior to May 01,2009 are gonna get approved before next spring. There will be a few thousands left out if not more(I firmly believe this is the case. If the numbers are enough to cover May 1, 2009 then the CoD would have been July 1,2009 to avoid visa wastage. In addition to these there were a lot of RFEs that were sent as late as July). 2. There will be about 4K (If you follow the last few years' trend) porters/new applicants for the next one year.
If you add these figures, 13300 (Current pending inventory between May 01,2009 - May 01,2010 as per July 2014) + 4000 (approx) + 2000 (left outs) = 19300. 19300 - 2800 (Regular) = 16500. Even if the spillover is gonna be 15K(This year's spillover is at 15K???) next year I don't see a reason for inventory build up before Sep 2015. If (a big if indeed) there's gonna be more than 18K/20K spillover next year then the inventory build up may happen sooner than Sep 2015. This year's spillover was aided by slow PERM approvals of EB2WW applicants.
And, any inventory build up is not good for people who are yet to file 485(like me) with PD after May 01,2009 as it will take another year (or a couple of years) for them to see the GC due to massive date movements back and forth.
If inventory build up does not happen in spring 2015 then CO has to move dates to May 1st 2010 by early spring. if CO moves dates in early spring to 1st May 2010, he will have enough time to accurately calculate the demand by July 2015 otherwise CO has to aggressively move dates in last quarter FY2015 to build inventory.
As I said it all depends on how EB2I's prospects look in 2015.Quote:
Originally Posted by Light@EOT
In the scenario you mention there would still be 5K porters from 2015 and 5K in 2016.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
My opinion is that in a normal year with no retrogression in the mid of the FY, porters account for 3k of the total eb2I approvals. 5k is on the upper end.
I do think that there will be a forward movement as early as may'15 to finish of the FY2015, further to generate demand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluelabel
For that to happen there should be very light utilization by both EB1 and EB2WW for the first two quarters. Unless it's going to be more than 15K spillover I don't see a reason for CO to move dates in spring beyond May 01,2010. If EB2WW PERM approvals pick up I won't be surprised if next year's spillover is somewhere between 8-10K.
I don't have the correct numbers yet. But,even with low EB2WW PERM approvals this year's spillover was 10K (approx between Jun/Jul 08 - May 01,2009) + 5K porters (approx) = 15K in total (approx). It's just the ballpark figure.
If EB1 and EB5 consume their quota, and EB2WW PERM approval starts picking up the spillover scenario for 2015 is bleak as of now. Of course, it could change if any of the underlying circumstances change. But the probability for that to happen is low.
Kanmani - I think 3K is an old number. It's been a while I have been using 5K. But I admit I haven't verified it quite well. Besides if anything it makes the forecast conservative. And as immigration situation becomes acute we may see the number grow. If you think about it EB3 folks in 2004/5/6/7/8 will all try to upgrade ... even 9/10/11. Why not. So finding 5K folks among approx 60-80K people is not that hard.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I am optimistic that there will be an inventory build up. But I will wait to pass even a preliminary judgement on it until the 2015 picture is somewhat clear.
Oct 2014 inventory data would be a right place to start.
Kanmani,
I'm unable to send private messages, how can we create space?
here is what I wanted to say, sorry about cut off date, one thing for sure, next FY is yours. I was in exactly same spot last year.
This is certainly true esp. in the hot job markets. Anecdotally, I have seen this happening a bunch of times in the Bay Area where folks from 08/09 have proactively upgraded and 2010 folks are contemplating it in anticipation of EB2I date movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks B. These RFEs and the hint from CO about dates moving to spring ( I hate that word :)) gave confidence (I’m The King Of The World woooho whooohoooo”- kind of ) for some time. I am alright now.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Regarding PM, you must clear some old messages to create space. If you think they are precious, you can move them to a word document and save it .
People from 2004 to '11 are upgrading constantly, not all , people are still stuck for valid reasons. The up-gradation takes place all over the year but the window for visa allotment has shrunken. This gate closing policy of DoS by retrogressing the dates prohibits a porter to reserve a place holder on the next available visa line. I still think 3k is on the run. Opinions differ.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Newguy,Quote:
Originally Posted by newguy
You can certainly use the passport as photo id. I am sure about that.
It makes it difficult but the moment gates open .... the crowd can run through. So on a full year basis I am more comfortable with 5K. As you say yes ... opinions can differ and so does comfort level of prediction.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani