looks like Ron is only one, who is aggressive and positive on EB2 movement.if it is true, it really helps lot of 2010/2011 folks.Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
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looks like Ron is only one, who is aggressive and positive on EB2 movement.if it is true, it really helps lot of 2010/2011 folks.Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
Guys,
Long time follower, first-time poster. As other poster said, this site undoubtedly has the best Signal-to-Noise ratio (SNR). Kudos to all.
I am trying to understand what is the parameter being used by CO to move dates forward (long/short movements). If demand is gauged by:
A. Visa numbers requested by USCIS: These numbers increase big enough only when Dec-Feb filers are documentarily qualified. Not going to happen for 2-3 of months from now. So can expect 3-6 month/VB movement for 2-3 months OR 1 year movement in March VB and stall for next two. After that comes 2012 spillover season.
B. Number of I-485 receipts with some multiplication factor: Will CO be interested in these numbers since # of receipts means nothing to him when it comes to today's visa numbers' consumption? If interested, forward movement might stop starting April VB. March VB is 50-50 for at max ~6-month movement and is subject to how many file I-485 for PD 2009 (assuming good percentage of PD 2008 guys will file by end of Feb).
C. He does a inky-pinky-ponky on different PD cutoffs, which I hope not.
Can experts agree/disagree which one of the above is most-likely?
PS: Apologize if this is an already discussed and blessed discussion.
Ron's post doens't make much sense, he seems late to the party. The chances of dates moving to C are very slim. There was no demand because the processing takes few months and the demand will show up very soonQuote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
You are right, EB2 will not become current in near future. chances are high in next bulletin EB2 moves atleast 3 to 6 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Bieber - agree that chances of C is very slim / impossible. but Ron I don't think is late to the party. Around summer of last year, he wrote an article how EB2 India would move very fast after it cleared summer 07 dates. Perhaps he was just as exuberant then as he is now? Or perhaps there is some widsom to his words... Bulletins realeased in Feb and Mar will sure tell us.
No where close to being an expert here, but I would imagine the CO knows that it takes 3-6 months to process the incoming applications. The fact that the bulletin still mentions that demand has been surprisingly low makes me somewhat optimistic...
Guru's
if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.
I really hope VB moves further, but My prediction for Mar'12 VB is that the dates will STALL.
Reasons:
Trackitt indicates OCT filers getting AOS approved. So next DD won't show less numbers. DOS has taken full advantage of the DD and moved the dates so far. Next month he will start seeing the Demand.
CO indicated In Nov meeting with AILA, that dates will progress in Dec, Jan & Feb. I don't think he mentioned Mar? [Correct me if wrong]
My take may be completely wrong, but just wanted to post.
Thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
Given CO uses the phrase, "Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly it will be necessary to slowdown or halt, I think good chance we will see some movement. I am not counting on 12 months (although that would be most welcome with a PD of Sep 2010!), but perhaps 6 months?
For 2008-2009 PD there are lot of uncertainties (DD being the key), and calculations can't hold strength until there is meaningful demand data. I am guessing for next 2-3 months, it would be prediction only.
My gut feeling for March VB is:
70% - 6 month movement
20 % - >6 month - 1 Year movement
10% - Stall/Retro (since demand is still low as per previous VB).
If above really happens, my gut feeling for April VB is:
90% - Stall/retro.
10% - High DD- Low I-485 receipts for PD 2008/2009 - move another 6-12 months.
Assumptions: Demand gauged by 485 receipts.
I will jump into calculations once demand data is meaningful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
Vishnu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
I don't intend to comment on his credibility, but I usually never learn anything new from him
The NVC notices with July 2008 dates was perhaps the most significant information he posted, which was useful to keep hopes on Jan bulletin
Got it Bieber... and you are right about the fee notices. Also, since no one has posted information of 2010 fee notices, obviously not a good sign!
No predictions from qesehmk/Veni/Spec/Teddy/Nishant ???Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
I think we have seen the dates as much as they will. They probably wont retrogess for another month or so but in April there is a high chance of retrogession.
The reasoning is that the bulletin is moving not just based on DD but also on USCIS telling DoS how many I485 applications are being filed. My understanding earlier was that Mar 08 would be covered this year that was based on about 2200 I-485/month.
Nov bulletin - Nov 1, this is obviously not enough to cover FY2012
Dec bulletin - Mar 15 08 -- this should have been enough but maybe due to demand destruction it still wasnt enough to cover FY2012
So DoS says "fudge it" and moves to Jan 1 09. Even if destruction is 20-25% we still have 1800 apps/month. so from July 15 - mar 15 = 14000 + another 14000 till Jan 1 09 = 28000 apps filed from Nov 11 - jan 12
I think we can agree that this movement will be enough to cover FY2012 + DoS has another years worth of I485 coming in next month but once USCIS gives the report of Jan filings DoS is going to realize they have more then enough Apps. Also they dont want to overload USCIS with more than they can handle.
I hope I am wrong but this is predictions right???
There was a post on immi***-law some weeks ago and the from the table it is apparent that for the FY2011 I-485s had 123K approvals, and 78K new applications, means the queue is shortened by 45K per year…So, doesn't it mean that they need more I-485s this year? Gurus, Am I missing something here?
Also there were only 123K approvals for FY2011, does that mean 17k Visas were lost?
I any event I guess there are fair chances for the dates to move in March bulletin at-least by few months. After all, I believe CO waited too long do this movement which should have started in early 2011 itself instead of waiting for the eb2 inventory to hit the bottom pit.Because if USCIS doesn't process I-485 before May bulletin, then there is a potential good news for EB3 with a spill over. Now, the million dollar question is will CO be happy with 50k in pipeline for EB2 or does he want to build more.
LOL, i hope next bulletin will have further movement, didn't they already do us all big favor [pun intended]Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
i dont know about the calculations part...guru's can update on that..
but i dont think it will benfit EB3 I/c. as incase the spill over is there also. it will be applied to the EB3 ROW first. not trying to be harsh, ....but the way the spill over is used is...if all EB2 people are current( or if there no preadjucated people waiting for visas in EB2) , then the spill over goes to the EB3 ROW, once that is Current then only it is distributed to the indivijaul countries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prabhas
You are right,right now if EB2 is current spillover goes to EB3 ROW first.Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
i dont know how long the moment will be in next 2 bulletions...i m little scared at this point incase the dtaes move to jan 2011 and stall there and retrogress ...because then people from jan 2011 will be waiting for next 3 years or so for the dates to move.....i dont want that to repeat like jul 2007 scenario....where people from aug 2007 had to wait for 4 years to apply for 485....
what ever CO is thinking...this next 2 visa bulletions are going to affect many of us largely....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
The 123k figure came from this USCIS document.Quote:
Originally Posted by Prabhas
USCIS only deal with AOS cases for which an I485 is required. The balance to the 140k would be Consular Processed cases handled by DOS, for which no I-485 is required.
17k is slightly higher than recent years (13-14k), but I can think of some reasons why that might be the case.
The new applications is not quite so simple. Here are my thoughts.
Only people whose PD is Current can file an I-485.
That means people from EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 & EB5 plus the movement in Cut Off Dates throughout the year for EB2-IC and all of EB3.
New I-485 filing from EB2-IC and EB3 would be comparatively low, since the COD in FY2011 were all pre the end of the backlog and most people have already filed an I-485 who could. That means they were mainly PWMB and adding dependents. That wouldn't be huge numbers IMO.
The bulk of new applications just replace those earlier ones from Current groups that were approved in FY2011.
Looking at the total numbers of I-485 Receipts at NSC & TSC, FY2011 had higher numbers than FY2010 (17% increase). NSC/TSC handle I-485 for EB / Refugee / Asylee - it isn't possible to split out the EB cases for previous years.
My (rather quick) thoughts anyway.
Spec, i dont see your prediction for my earlier postQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Guru's
if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.
Not sure but I have a feeling that the next PD is going to be Jan 01, 2011.
Theoretically there is no need for further movement. But if there's uncertainty in terms of demand, CO could move it as much as he wants. It could be 1 month, 3 months or 12 months....... or nothing at all.
Spectater
All NIW do not have any relation with J1 waiver. The NIW I am talking about is independent of any J1 waiver. It is for 5 years, you do not need an employer to file and you do not need PERM but you do need employment contract for 5 years.
username1,Quote:
Originally Posted by username1
Thanks for the clarification.
I had to make an educated assumption, which I stated, since many foreign physicians use the J-1 for graduate medical studies and then work in an under served area to waive the HRR.
I now understand the waiver available via NIW (8 CFR §204.12: National Interest Waivers for Physicians Serving in a Medically Underserved Area or VA Facility)
Asked my immigration attorney (one of the largest in the country, not fragomen though) whether my Sep 2010 PD could become current in the next few months. She is always super duper conservative and always uses the phrase 'wait for years on Eb2 India'. Today she said "it is possible". Not saying she has any insights and certainly not asking anyone to become more optimistic but wanted to highlight how confused the entire fraternity is with this rapid date movement.
20k H1's are for MS guys, assume 50% them applied for GC's every year . ie 10k. 50% chances are there 5k are unmarried in that pool or in dilemma to file or rushing for finding girl, this definetely take atleast 6 months to 1 year for them to file.most of them finishes MS by 23 years + 2.5 years OPT + 2 years H1 they start apply for GC=28 years
so since Jan 1st 2008 to Jan 1st 2010 there must be atleast 8k . i.e 17% huge....what do you guys think?
I am not sure, if I understand the correlation with the applicant's age.. (23+2.5+...??)
Since you are looking at the H1B pool.. and since 80% of MS guys applying for H1 come from retrogressed countries.. I would say that applicants would jump at the first opportunity to start the GC process (PERM+I140). The decision of filing for I-485 could be dominated by the marital status but that opportunity was not available to them until a couple of months ago..But the guys are definitely in the queue.
The reluctance of companies to file for PERM etc. because of the economy could be a reason that folks (who would have been eligible) haven't filed for PERM yet. I am not sure if there is a way to track that.. (Guys on H1 but who haven't filed for PERM).
For those worried about date being current before getting married - one piece of advice:
Your spouse can benefit from your PD even after you get your GC. This is called "follow to join". This topic has previously been discussed on the forum. Please search on this one. If I remember correctly Spec had answered these questions in detail.
USCIS Policy Memo on EB-5 Adjudications - Draft posted for comments.
Just received magic e-mail for my 485 case status changed to Card/ Document Production, waiting on spouse 485 case status to change.
Interestingly, my delayed EAD-AP card arrived in the mail today (40 days after approval), can't even enjoy it for a day!.
Teddy, Nishanth to follow and i wish all the best to those already filed and the others waiting to file their AOS.
gkjppp,
I hope you meant 10/2013 in your signature...my PD(03/11/10) is very close to your PD and I hope the worst case situation is 10/2013.
Nope, it is 10/2014 without HR 3012. it takes more than 2 years to clear current inventory, approx 58k cases. Its now or in 2014 for us.Quote:
Originally Posted by cricfan
codesmith,Quote:
Originally Posted by codesmith
The way USCIS is approving PWMB applications, we may not see them as part of the monthly demand data DOS is publishing.
Assuming USCIS will stick to QSP, yes we will see approvals through out FY2012.
By the time USCIS start processing Dec'11/Jan'12 EB2IC filers, DOS should start seeing lot of VISA requests coming-in than the numbers available, which will trigger the next VB to see retro.
next means Mar bulletin?. I guess it takes 3 to 4 months to reflect in the demand data, i feel it is Apr bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Yes hopefully.. Im @ Feb 2010.. hope we get a chance in March :)Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
If you refer to the CO's interview ..Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/
And if you take his word then I don't think we should see much/any movement in coming times, IMHO. Don't want to be spoiler :(
Thats old news, even in that CO told "4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated", Let's wait and see.Quote:
Originally Posted by codesmith
gkjppp,Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
What i mean to say was the bulletin that will be published in the month (or after) DOS see the increased demand for the VISA numbers.
Considering the 3-4 month processing time we are seeing now, best case scenario will be April or worst case June.
Hello, I have a question on dependent I485 application. My wife has her own I140 approved, but as my dates became current, applied as dependent on my application. Just got received notices and we see my wife's PD has her actual PD (from her labor and I140), instead of received date. Will there be any issue? Lawyer did fill her A# from her I140 application on 485 and other forms, but I did verify that her application is dependent application. Thanks in advance.