EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Printable View

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

10-26-2018, 05:02 PM
siriyal75

The comparison is not correct, you are comparing backlog numbers of India and China Vs regular H1 numbers for RoW.
Usually , out of 85K H1 per year, I &C share ~50-55%, Row is ~ 40-45%, which is ~40K H1B petitions for RoW.
This is only for primary applicants on H1B , if you include Family/Dependents, the count goes over double ~80K for GC, which is per person.
So technically, Row can take all 80K GC of EB2 & Eb3, with regular quota, without any spill over to I/C.

USCIS numbers are correct, I&C is 90% of 400K (This is mostly backlogs/extn and new), for Row its mostly new petitions , which is 10% of 400K, ~40K, which is inline with above numbers.

The India H1B pool is growing ~ 40-50K per year, from last 10 years, we have ~400K total. Need at least 600K-800K Green cards, to become current as of now.

India H1B pool is snow ball, the number keep growing year by year, generating huge mass, with limited GCs.
10-26-2018, 06:04 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by siriyal75

The comparison is not correct, you are comparing backlog numbers of India and China Vs regular H1 numbers for RoW.
Usually , out of 85K H1 per year, I &C share ~50-55%, Row is ~ 40-45%, which is ~40K H1B petitions for RoW.
This is only for primary applicants on H1B , if you include Family/Dependents, the count goes over double ~80K for GC, which is per person.
So technically, Row can take all 80K GC of EB2 & Eb3, with regular quota, without any spill over to I/C.

USCIS numbers are correct, I&C is 90% of 400K (This is mostly backlogs/extn and new), for Row its mostly new petitions , which is 10% of 400K, ~40K, which is inline with above numbers.

The India H1B pool is growing ~ 40-50K per year, from last 10 years, we have ~400K total. Need at least 600K-800K Green cards, to become current as of now.

India H1B pool is snow ball, the number keep growing year by year, generating huge mass, with limited GCs.

The point you make is a good one, but your percentages are a bit wide of the mark.

In the FY2017 Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers report (the last one published) it shows 108,101 petitions approved in FY2017 for Initial Employment. This figure will include those for Cap-Exempt Employers which are outside the lottery.

Of these, 67,815 were for India (62.7%) and 15,165 were for China (14.0%). The next highest was Canada, with 2,226 (2.1%).

So rather than the India and China share being in the 50-55% range, it was 76.7% and was 76.5% in FY2016.
10-26-2018, 07:05 PM
siriyal75

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

The point you make is a good one, but your percentages are a bit wide of the mark.

In the FY2017 Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers report (the last one published) it shows 108,101 petitions approved in FY2017 for Initial Employment. This figure will include those for Cap-Exempt Employers which are outside the lottery.

Of these, 67,815 were for India (62.7%) and 15,165 were for China (14.0%). The next highest was Canada, with 2,226 (2.1%).

So rather than the India and China share being in the 50-55% range, it was 76.7% and was 76.5% in FY2016.

Thanks S for the correction, as an old timer, I still thinking 50-55%, surprise to see it is going above 75%, soon it may reach 100% :).

I have provided info to have rough idea, there are many variables, like number of dependents , a small ratio change would impact heavily.

The best source is PERM data, as from FACT section, we can see 31K in 2017, and 41K in 2018 PERMs processed for Row. This can translate in 60K-80K GC application for family/dependents.

H1 is main source, but not only source, we can see H2 applicants also filing for GC in EB3/Eb2 (Landscaping, meat processing, etc).
10-26-2018, 07:12 PM
siriyal75

Soon USCIS has to deny close to 100K every year (denials = new quota per year) for I&C.
Otherwise this pool grows so big, USCIS has to double/triple their staff to process extns and change of employment petitions for I&C.
10-28-2018, 10:43 PM
gcvijay

Wouldn't that mean that we have around 17K both EB2 and Eb3 for entire 2009 and if we make a split that will sure leave EB2 INDIA numbers close to 11 to 12 K which with yearly quota 2800 and a estimated SO of 5000 should take EB2 INDIA dates to mid\later 2009 and not clear entire 2009?

Also on a different note, is there a reason why CO put May 22nd 2009 as filing dates for EB2 INDIA? Is he not considering spillovers while establishing EB2 INDIA filing dates?

Here is the 2018 September DOS data.

China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total

EB1 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 08

EB2 02 06 00 01 00 00 01 10

EB3 017 003 007 242 09 06 049 333

EB4 003 000 000 000 000 001 095 099

EB5 379 046 000 000 025 000 119 569

Total 401 055 007 243 034 007 272 1019

2018 Year DOS Data total.

China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total

EB1 1457 0183 0074 0012 0281 0018 1829 3854

EB2 0091 0075 0042 0371 1149 0032 1359 3119

EB3 0526 0747 0224 4969 0455 0099 3727 10747

EB4 039 188 005 057 036 042 1451 1818

EB5 4161 0394 0066 0012 0463 0658 2053 7807

Total 6274 1587 0411 5421 2384 0849 10419 27345

10-29-2018, 08:53 AM
redsox2009

2018 Year DOS Data total.

China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total

FB 12245 15593 28120 14826 140857 211641

EB 6274 1587 0411 5421 13652 27345

Total 18519 17180 28531 20247 154509 238986
10-30-2018, 08:31 AM
Stylorogue27

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

Eb2I has 10000 waiting from 2009. Limited chance for it to reach 2010 Pd this December. Eb3 however might get up to April 2010 either in December or January bulletin.

hello - my pd is May 2009 eb3 I and I am in India and selected CP / New Delhi - I am no longer with the employer as they have no operations here - however I may be able to get an offer letter from them to rejoin if GC is approved, as I am in the same industry but picked up 10 years of experience since.

couple of qns - mucho appreciate responses

Can I get my docs together and apply for CP or do I absolutely need to await a word from NVC to my employer ? -- the bulletin says dates for filing is Oct 2009 so am I good to go ?

How long would it possibly take to get an interview call ?

The salary would possibly be the same as what it was when it was filed despite my experience, if they give me the offer letter - will that be a problem ?

Any pointers or threads to help me understand CP better - please guide - thanks again
10-30-2018, 09:31 AM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcvijay

Wouldn't that mean that we have around 17K both EB2 and Eb3 for entire 2009 and if we make a split that will sure leave EB2 INDIA numbers close to 11 to 12 K which with yearly quota 2800 and a estimated SO of 5000 should take EB2 INDIA dates to mid\later 2009 and not clear entire 2009?

Also on a different note, is there a reason why CO put May 22nd 2009 as filing dates for EB2 INDIA? Is he not considering spillovers while establishing EB2 INDIA filing dates?

17000 will be in addition to the 9000-10000 already present in the EB2 I with AOS. Also lot of 2008 EB3 I still clearing in FY 19. EB2 very difficult to clear 2009 in FY 19. If they continue to respect the filing date, we might see EB3- 2010 with EAD's. December/January bulletins very important for EB3 I, to determine what is in store for FY 19.
10-30-2018, 10:22 AM
TheLureoftheGreen

Clearing EB2 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

17000 will be in addition to the 9000-10000 already present in the EB2 I with AOS. Also lot of 2008 EB3 I still clearing in FY 19. EB2 very difficult to clear 2009 in FY 19. If they continue to respect the filing date, we might see EB3- 2010 with EAD's. December/January bulletins very important for EB3 I, to determine what is in store for FY 19.

Any predictions for when we might see early July 2009 EB2 becoming current (FD or FA)?

Cheers!
10-30-2018, 11:25 AM
gcvijay

Thanks for your response. Are you saying even with SO of lets say 5000 EB2 INDIA will not clear 2009? Where do you think will EB2 INDIA land by end of this FY? May 22nd 2009 per Filing Dates?
10-30-2018, 11:31 AM
Stylorogue27

I tried posting a qn but seem to have lost it - please help ---- my PD is May 2009 / EB3 I - I had to leave the US and opted for CP / New Delhi.

The Visa bulletin says F/D is Oct 2009 so can i move forward with the process or do I need to absolutely wait for NVC to contact my employer ? - what can I expect in Dec/Jan - how long does it take for an interview request to come up ?

I do not work for that employer anymore since they have no operations in India but they may give me an offer letter - I obviously have 10 more years of experience but the offer letter will probably be having the same salary that was mentioned when the GC was filed - will that be a problem during the consular interview ?

Also - can anyone suggest any threads/sites that shed some light on consular processing experiences - I have been scanning several sites but most of the experiences mentioned are really old - is that because there are very few CP cases (E-based) ?

Thanks much
10-30-2018, 01:04 PM
march1612

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

17000 will be in addition to the 9000-10000 already present in the EB2 I with AOS. Also lot of 2008 EB3 I still clearing in FY 19. EB2 very difficult to clear 2009 in FY 19. If they continue to respect the filing date, we might see EB3- 2010 with EAD's. December/January bulletins very important for EB3 I, to determine what is in store for FY 19.

Based on Spec's numbers, Total PERMs approved for FY2009 EB2 is around 29,502 . I assume these numbers also include EB2-ROW along with EB2-I.

Assuming 17000 would be EB2-ROW then these applications would have already approved and got green card.

I'm missing anything here?
10-30-2018, 01:30 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by march1612

Based on Spec's numbers, Total PERMs approved for FY2009 EB2 is around 29,502 . I assume these numbers also include EB2-ROW along with EB2-I.

Assuming 17000 would be EB2-ROW then these applications would have already approved and got green card.

I'm missing anything here?

No, the 29502 would be only India. Correction.. It was entire World
10-30-2018, 01:33 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcvijay

Thanks for your response. Are you saying even with SO of lets say 5000 EB2 INDIA will not clear 2009? Where do you think will EB2 INDIA land by end of this FY? May 22nd 2009 per Filing Dates?

India, has got around 10000 AOS cases as per July Pending inventory. 5000 SO + 2804 mandatory numbers in 2019 will not clear all of them. We need 7000 SO for EB2 to have a chance to clear 2009. And another requirement would be no new EB2 petitions to do AOS for 2009.
10-30-2018, 02:55 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by march1612

Based on Spec's numbers, Total PERMs approved for FY2009 EB2 is around 29,502 . I assume these numbers also include EB2-ROW along with EB2-I.

Assuming 17000 would be EB2-ROW then these applications would have already approved and got green card.

I'm missing anything here?

29,502 is the total number of PERM OFLC approved in FY2009. Of these, 2,112 were China, 11,387 were India and 16,003 were ROW/M/P. This covered PDs from 2005 to 2009. The majority were 2008 PD.

But really, that information is irrelevant. More important are the figures for a PD year, which build up over several FY of approvals.

For CY2009 PD, India has had 16,672 PERM certifications. Straightforward cases were certified mainly in FY2010, then later FY approvals probably represent when Supervised Recruitment, Audit and lastly Appeal cases were finally certified.

ROW demand in FY2019 will probably come from a combination of part FY2018 certifications and part FY2019 certifications, plus NIW cases that don't need PERM.

I had a quick look at all the USCIS Pending I-485 Inventories for EB2 India PD2009. I can identify that nearly 17k cases appear to have been in the Inventory over time and I estimate probably another couple of k that didn't appear due to the net monthly total reducing. But that's just a quick look by me

All these different figures from everybody just point to the difficulty of the task to estimate from solid PERM data to I-485 numbers. There's too many factors which have to be guessed at because there is no solid information available. Even the USCIS Inventory only shows part of the picture even if the data were high quality. I don't think it ever has shown total numbers. And, of course, it doesn't include any cases that were Consular Processed.
10-30-2018, 02:58 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcvijay

Thanks for your response. Are you saying even with SO of lets say 5000 EB2 INDIA will not clear 2009? Where do you think will EB2 INDIA land by end of this FY? May 22nd 2009 per Filing Dates?

What's your rationale for thinking there would be 5k spillover for EB2-I in FY2019?
10-30-2018, 04:25 PM
siriyal75

Trackitt I-485 pending applications for EB2 India from Jan-2008 to July-2010 is 2630, which is 15,826 pending application as per USCIS latest data, which is 6 multiplier.
Same for EB3 India is 121, with 6 multiplier , it would be 726 applications so far till Sep-2009, even we take 10 multiplier , it not crossing 3K, regular annual quota.

This is just for an idea, on the latest EB3 I-485 filings trend.
10-30-2018, 04:30 PM
gcvijay

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

What's your rationale for thinking there would be 5k spillover for EB2-I in FY2019?

Just an assumption spec. Someone was pointing ROW perms were lower and that may contribute some spillover but not sure 5k is possible

So from your 17k perm of 2009 if we multiply by 1.5 for dependents and minus the 485's approved since 2009 till date for PD 2009 and minus the EB3 downgrades can we say we have approx not 11k per inventory but the next pending inventory should have unusually higher numbers listed?
10-31-2018, 06:25 PM
redsox2009

Q3 2018 USCIS 485 Numbers are Out.

34365 --485 Applications were Approved and 11055 were approved at Service Centers, and 23310 were approved at field centers.

During Q3 EB1 had a cuttoff date, and, EB2 China and EB3 India moved upto and year, most of these applications approved at service centers. Pending cases at service center were down from 155k to 78k which were down by 50%. If similar pattern continues for FY2019, then there is good chances for EB1 India and EB2 India dates moving at the end of the year.

Out of 78K pending 485 at service center, EB1 India is around 4k and 16K from EB2 India.
10-31-2018, 09:56 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsox2009

Q3 2018 USCIS 485 Numbers are Out.

34365 --485 Applications were Approved and 11055 were approved at Service Centers, and 23310 were approved at field centers.

During Q3 EB1 had a cuttoff date, and, EB2 China and EB3 India moved upto and year, most of these applications approved at service centers. Pending cases at service center were down from 155k to 78k which were down by 50%. If similar pattern continues for FY2019, then there is good chances for EB1 India and EB2 India dates moving at the end of the year.

Out of 78K pending 485 at service center, EB1 India is around 4k and 16K from EB2 India.

There's still a huge disconnect between the 76,868 Employment I-485 pending reported at Service Centers (with zero shown at NBC) in the Q3 Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) Report (149,179 at SC & FO) and the July Employment Inventory Report figure of 29,471 for Service Centers.
11-01-2018, 10:37 AM
redsox2009

One more interesting data point I noticed was 485 rejections, they went up by 90% when compared with Q3 2017.

Q3 2017 rejections are 1705
Q3 2018 rejections are 3250

Overall 485 rejections were up for this year. 2018 Rejections up to Q3 period are 7987, for whole 2017 year 485 Rejections are 7345.
11-01-2018, 10:38 AM
hiperm

hi
what is the chance for Jan 2010 in EB2 or EB3 in Dec's filing date?
Any prediction when Date of Filling will reach Jan 2010?
11-01-2018, 11:05 AM
tatikonda

Need advice for the situation. I-94 Extension.

Dear All,

Need advice for the situation.
My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.

I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
Please advise.
11-01-2018, 11:32 AM
bloddy1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

There's still a huge disconnect between the 76,868 Employment I-485 pending reported at Service Centers (with zero shown at NBC) in the Q3 Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) Report (149,179 at SC & FO) and the July Employment Inventory Report figure of 29,471 for Service Centers.

Is there a definitive inventory and break down for Eb2/Eb3- India for Service Center and Field Offices? Trying to get into the mindset where, if you want to know exactly the inventory and appropriately staff agent workforce, you want very good predictability around - num. of adjudicated cases, when is inventory going to hit for adjudication/Final action and the availability of numbers (regular, SOFAD, political indeterminate etc., ). Its is of smaller impact & consequence to be adjudicated than to provide final action, so one has more freedom to move adjudication date and get extremely good predictability but basically don't care too much on end user experience, so CO will hold-on moving FA dates.

EB2 is in that stage for predictability, not EB3.

The significance, of both recent AILA commentary and why CO will be slow in moving FA dates for EB3, is that, once EB3-FA significantly goes ahead of EB2-FA the predictability is thrown to the wind. While there is a big incentive for backlogged individual to downgrade to EB3 and go thru enormous paperwork if and only if EB3-FA goes where EB2-FA has not gone before, but just moving Filing dates isnt going to entice people to crossover.

In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.

In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.
11-01-2018, 11:36 AM
bloddy1

Quote:

Originally Posted by tatikonda

Dear All,

Need advice for the situation.
My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.

I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
Please advise.

Luckily, there is a thing called CBP local office which can potentially do the correction. My wife was in a similar situation (but without the passport complexity), our lawyer suggested we go to the local CBP office and get it corrected. They will re-issue a new I-94. There is usually a local CBP office close to a border or an airport you reside at. Do run this by your attorney, no harm in trying though.
11-01-2018, 01:47 PM
h1bh1bh1b

I485 rejection stage?

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsox2009

One more interesting data point I noticed was 485 rejections, they went up by 90% when compared with Q3 2017.

Q3 2017 rejections are 1705
Q3 2018 rejections are 3250

Overall 485 rejections were up for this year. 2018 Rejections up to Q3 period are 7987, for whole 2017 year 485 Rejections are 7345.

Just curious at what stage, candidate will know about the rejection?

1.Will candidates EAD be rejected?
2.After getting EAD, Based on Interview ,can one be rejected?
11-01-2018, 03:05 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by bloddy1

In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.

In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.

It is plausible, though we have to see the next few bulletins to really see if this theory has any traction. The visas Eb3 lost are always around 2000-3000. We are still in the first quarter of FY19. Eb3 has the potential to go all the way up to May 2010, without having to worry much about original Eb2 filers. The Eb2 guys who will try to downport would be mostly prior porters who already had an Eb3 petition before.
11-01-2018, 04:38 PM
HarepathekaIntezar

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcvijay

Just an assumption spec. Someone was pointing ROW perms were lower and that may contribute some spillover but not sure 5k is possible

So from your 17k perm of 2009 if we multiply by 1.5 for dependents and minus the 485's approved since 2009 till date for PD 2009 and minus the EB3 downgrades can we say we have approx not 11k per inventory but the next pending inventory should have unusually higher numbers listed?

EB2I is not going to move much this year bro. All those who are hoping for any SO, need to cool their heels and expectations! Next year maybe better year to speculate.
11-01-2018, 07:07 PM
EB2/eb3

Spec, is it true that child’s age will not freeze when filed using Filing date? If so, will it freeze automatically when FAD is current?
11-02-2018, 06:13 AM
Tandav

Quote:

Originally Posted by EB2/eb3

Spec, is it true that child’s age will not freeze when filed using Filing date? If so, will it freeze automatically when FAD is current?

Please correct me if not right, Yes. But, the age will freeze only if the FAD occurs before the child reaches 21 years old.
11-02-2018, 08:24 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by EB2/eb3

Spec, is it true that child's age will not freeze when filed using Filing date? If so, will it freeze automatically when FAD is current?

Unfortunately, yes, that is true. USCIS has chosen to make that interpretation because that is when they believe a visa becomes "immediately available".
USCIS argue that the Filing Date submission only satisfies the "sought to acquire" condition.

Also, to be clear, it's before the child's CSPA Age reaches 21, which in turn depends on how long it took to approve the I-140 petition.

Yes, it will freeze when the FAD becomes current on the first day of the VB month.

You can find confirmation in the Policy Manual or more concisely here, where it states:

Quote:

CSPA for Family and Employment Preference and Diversity Visa Immigrants
.
.
Age at Time of Visa Availability

The date the visa is considered available is the later of these two dates:

The date the petition was approved; or
The first day of the month of the Department of State Visa Bulletin that indicates that a visa is available for you in the Final Action Dates chart.

Here's an article about it.
11-02-2018, 09:44 AM
EB2/eb3

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Unfortunately, yes, that is true. USCIS has chosen to make that interpretation because that is when they believe a visa becomes "immediately available".
USCIS argue that the Filing Date submission only satisfies the "sought to acquire" condition.

Also, to be clear, it's before the child's CSPA Age reaches 21, which in turn depends on how long it took to approve the I-140 petition.

Yes, it will freeze when the FAD becomes current on the first day of the VB month.

You can find confirmation in the Policy Manual or more concisely here, where it states:

Thank you spec but the information but the example given on uscis website is very confusing.
Pending time is calculated as number of days between the date that it is properly filed(filing date) and the approval date and the forumla is
Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending time
11-02-2018, 09:46 AM
EB2/eb3

Quote:

Originally Posted by bloddy1

Is there a definitive inventory and break down for Eb2/Eb3- India for Service Center and Field Offices? Trying to get into the mindset where, if you want to know exactly the inventory and appropriately staff agent workforce, you want very good predictability around - num. of adjudicated cases, when is inventory going to hit for adjudication/Final action and the availability of numbers (regular, SOFAD, political indeterminate etc., ). Its is of smaller impact & consequence to be adjudicated than to provide final action, so one has more freedom to move adjudication date and get extremely good predictability but basically don't care too much on end user experience, so CO will hold-on moving FA dates.

EB2 is in that stage for predictability, not EB3.

The significance, of both recent AILA commentary and why CO will be slow in moving FA dates for EB3, is that, once EB3-FA significantly goes ahead of EB2-FA the predictability is thrown to the wind. While there is a big incentive for backlogged individual to downgrade to EB3 and go thru enormous paperwork if and only if EB3-FA goes where EB2-FA has not gone before, but just moving Filing dates isnt going to entice people to crossover.

In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.

In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.

Makes perfect sense on why CO is not moving eb3 dates aggressively. Based on this, where do u think eb3 fad might end up by end of the FY?
11-02-2018, 10:44 AM
ak7419

I was thinking that I would be current by now with EB2I PD of Sep, 2009. What a bummer! I guess not until next October?
11-02-2018, 01:33 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by EB2/eb3

Thank you spec but the information but the example given on uscis website is very confusing.
Pending time is calculated as number of days between the date that it is properly filed(filing date) and the approval date and the forumla is
Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending time

That is correct, but it also says clearly that they are talking about the petition, not the I-485 application.

An I-485 is an application for AOS as the beneficiary of an underlying petition.

For EB1, EB2 and EB3 cases, the petition is an I-140.

So for the example (changed to reflect EB)

Quote:

3. Determining Length of Time Petition Was Pending

For family and employment-based preference adjustment applicants, the length of time a petition was pending (pending time) is the number of days between the date that it is properly filed (filing date) [23] and the approval date. The formula for determining the length of time the petition was pending is as follows:

Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending Time

Example

The applicant’s employer filed a(n I-140) petition on the applicant’s behalf on February 1, 2016. USCIS approved the (I-140) petition on August 1, 2016.

August 1, 2016 - February 1, 2016 = 6 months (or 182 days)

Therefore, the applicant’s (I-140) petition pending time is 6 months (or 182 days).

This then feeds into the CSPA age calculation as the Pending Time (the pending time is the amount of time it took for the I-140 to be approved):

Quote:

2. Child Status Protection Act Age Calculation

For family (including VAWA) [20] and employment-based preference and DV categories, an adjustment applicant’s CSPA age is calculated by subtracting the number of days the petition was pending (pending time) from the applicant’s age on the date the immigrant visa becomes available to him or her (age at time of visa availability). [21] The formula for calculating CSPA age is as follows:

Age at time of visa availability - (Petition) Pending Time = CSPA Age

While an applicant must file an adjustment application or otherwise seek lawful permanent resident status in order to benefit from CSPA, the date the applicant files an adjustment application is not relevant for the CSPA age calculation. [22]

Example

The applicant is 21 years and 4 months old when an immigrant visa becomes available to him or her (this is when the FAD becomes current). The applicant’s (I-140) petition was pending for 6 months. The applicant’s CSPA age is calculated as follows:

21 years and 4 months - 6 months = 20 years and 10 months

Therefore, the applicant’s CSPA age is under 21.

I hope that makes it clearer for you.
11-02-2018, 03:44 PM
EB2/eb3

Yes, it does. Thank you for the clarification Spec
11-02-2018, 06:00 PM
jimmys

Quote:

Originally Posted by bloddy1

Is there a definitive inventory and break down for Eb2/Eb3- India for Service Center and Field Offices? Trying to get into the mindset where, if you want to know exactly the inventory and appropriately staff agent workforce, you want very good predictability around - num. of adjudicated cases, when is inventory going to hit for adjudication/Final action and the availability of numbers (regular, SOFAD, political indeterminate etc., ). Its is of smaller impact & consequence to be adjudicated than to provide final action, so one has more freedom to move adjudication date and get extremely good predictability but basically don't care too much on end user experience, so CO will hold-on moving FA dates.

EB2 is in that stage for predictability, not EB3.

The significance, of both recent AILA commentary and why CO will be slow in moving FA dates for EB3, is that, once EB3-FA significantly goes ahead of EB2-FA the predictability is thrown to the wind. While there is a big incentive for backlogged individual to downgrade to EB3 and go thru enormous paperwork if and only if EB3-FA goes where EB2-FA has not gone before, but just moving Filing dates isnt going to entice people to crossover.

In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.

In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.

The issue CO indicated was there's not enough demand for EB-3 till Jan 1,2009. (First 10 months of 2008 has been current for 6 months now) It's pretty obvious that people ported and EB-2 stayed in 2008/2009 for too long. The problem you mentioned only will happen if people start downgrading aggressively. For that has to happen the EB3 FA dates have to pass May 1,2010. Until then EB-3 will sail smooth. I won't be surprised if EB3 FA dates are ahead of EB-2FA in April 2019 itself.
11-02-2018, 06:06 PM
jimmys

Quote:

Originally Posted by tatikonda

Dear All,

Need advice for the situation.
My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.

I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
Please advise.

You can schedule an appointment or visit your closest CBP station. They can extend your I-94 based on your new passport till the PED.

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:40 PM.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	South Korea	Vietnam	ROW-SK-VET	Total
EB1	00	00	00	00	00	00	08	08
EB2	02	06	00	01	00	00	01	10
EB3	017	003	007	242	09	06	049	333
EB4	003	000	000	000	000	001	095	099
EB5	379	046	000	000	025	000	119	569
Total	401	055	007	243	034	007	272	1019

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	ROW	Total
FB	12245	15593	28120	14826	140857	211641
EB	6274	1587	0411	5421	13652	27345
Total	18519	17180	28531	20247	154509	238986