EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 24th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2014 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2014 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 150,241

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2014 the per-country limit is 26,337. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,525.

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The prorated 7% level in EB would be 10,517 split as 3,008 in each of EB1, EB2 & EB3 and 746/747 in each of EB4 & EB5.

USCIS were as late as ever in providing DOS with the information required to finally calculate the EB allocation.

Spec,
Did you mean 01MAY09?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

So now we know - 01MAY10. My gut feeling says that seems about right for the number of visas that might be available.

My feeling is that is going to mean 3-4k cases falling into FY2015 based on the number of visas I expect to be available to EB2-I in FY2014. Most of those can be approved in early FY2015, if CO decides to use the initial FY2015 EB2-I allocation at the beginning of the year. I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

How the rest of the FY progresses will, IMO, be dependent on whether there are spare FB visas or not. We should know that around mid/late January 2015 (when the DOS Visa Statistics are published), as well as exactly how many visas each Category and Country used.

Congratulations to everybody who became current.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

So now we know - 01MAY10. My gut feeling says that seems about right for the number of visas that might be available.

My feeling is that is going to mean 3-4k cases falling into FY2015 based on the number of visas I expect to be available to EB2-I in FY2014. Most of those can be approved in early FY2015, if CO decides to use the initial FY2015 EB2-I allocation at the beginning of the year. I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

How the rest of the FY progresses will, IMO, be dependent on whether there are spare FB visas or not. We should know that around mid/late January 2015 (when the DOS Visa Statistics are published), as well as exactly how many visas each Category and Country used.

Congratulations to everybody who became current.

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Congrats to all those who got current!

In FY2012, CO decided to build demand when USCIS I-485 EB2-I inventory dipped to 9K (technically, should we consider EB2IC since they were lock step then?) and dates were 3 or 4 months of the last max value.

After using demand up to 01 MAY 09, EB2-I inventory would have approx. 18K to 19K left.

Assuming, same is the case this time, when might inventory build up happen? Would FY2015 SOFAD allow another (10K+porting +new filings) to be used up? So demand build up at the end of FY 2015 or early FY 2016 would be likely? I know its way too early, but I would like everybody's initial thoughts.

2nd half of FY 2015 would certainly be used to build demand for EB3ROW & EB2C. That is a given. May be even earlier.

Dec 2008 is a little bit of an outlier at 1600, most months in latter half of 2008 until first quarter of 2009 are 1200-1300. Past that 2009 and 2010 is 1000-1200 with the low point in Sept of ~800+ IIRC. Even 1600 is on the low side in comparison to late 2007 and early 2008 though.

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Originally Posted by geterdone

Imdeng- sorry for my ignorance.... you said that EB2I has low density in late 2008 but when I look at the inventory sheet it is showing more than 1600 for December 2008. Am I missing something?

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Originally Posted by CleanSock

Spec,
Did you mean 01MAY09?

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Thanks CleanSock.

It must have been a Freudian slip.

I've corrected the date in my original post.

Sportsfan,

No need to be sorry. I knew this is coming and I have to be sorry for my husband who has been refreshing the bulletin page link for the first time ever,from yesterday, hoping to see his PD to get current. :(

If USCIS thinks dates won't move beyond 01 MAY 2009 why did they send RFEs up to OCT/NOV 2009. Does it mean those people have to do the medicals again next summer if the current one expires? Pure insane. And,I firmly believe it won't be FIFO in approval. There always will be few lucky chaps and a few unfortunate ones. Let's check the trackitt.com once the date retrogresses to hear about unfortunate stories.

Its fine Sports - the long odds were clear for a while. Like Kanmani, I am also more concerned about my spouse :-) - she is ready to leave her very stressful job the day we get our GC and there is more stability in our lives.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I am really sorry imdeng and kanmani you didn't get current! OTOH though, I think given everything, 1 May 2009 is really as best as they can achieve this year.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I know this kanmani...I have been through a lot of anxiety over the last 2 months and it's not over yet! It's not over until it is over for any of us.

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I know that man. We are not one of the luckiest of guys who have everything go smoothly at the right time in their life, no struggle or whatsoever ! I used to ponder over it and even complain that God is so mean. My husband has a simple answer, god has something else so important in his store exclusively for us . So do to you sportsfan, don't worry everything will go just fine. All the best!

Guru's
Long time follower first time poster but a big fan of all the hard work you guys put in. The depth of knowledge that some of you guys have is amazing; makes life easy for quite a few of I am sure.
I have a quick question - Does the cutoff date of 1st May 2009 include 1st May or not. I think it isn't but just want to make sure. Would appreciate if someone can clarify. My apologies on posting this here but I needed a quick answer.
Please feel free to move this to the relevant thread once answered.
Thanks

Q,

Did you mean the dates will retrogress in Dec 2014?

A big thanks to all the Gurus here. I finally got current in September bulletin. I hope to file on September 1 itself. I am pretty content with getting an EAD this year, but out of curiosity, I have a question. Assuming that mmy lawyer does indeed file on September 1, will I have a small shot of getting the actual GC (1%) ? If it remains current in November, should I create an infopass or senator, congressman request etc.

Vishnu, while i would love to see more movement ( having missed the boat by all of 49 days) the spillover is used up in the last 3 months of this fiscal year. Since the new fiscal year starts in October most probably there will be no advancement.

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Comparing commentary in Sep 2014 bulletin vs Sep 2013 bulletin, suggests there could be more date movement next month

Sep 2014 (keeping it open)
Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

Sep 2013 (commentary suggestive of movement having been completed)
India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I am holding hope that dates move in October. I am really curious to know the fate of folks like you who refreshed their medicals this year.

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We replied the RFE in August'14 and the medicals are valid through Aug'15, I don't think we need one if the dates start to move in June of next year effective July. Let's see.

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Originally Posted by feedmyback

Q,

Did you mean the dates will retrogress in Dec 2014?

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Yes indeed.

The date itself is not included. For example - 01MAY09 means that anybody with PD BEFORE 01MAY09 is current. If one has a PD of 01MAY09 then that person is not current as of the Sept bulletin.

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Originally Posted by almost

Guru's
Long time follower first time poster but a big fan of all the hard work you guys put in. The depth of knowledge that some of you guys have is amazing; makes life easy for quite a few of I am sure.
I have a quick question - Does the cutoff date of 1st May 2009 include 1st May or not. I think it isn't but just want to make sure. Would appreciate if someone can clarify. My apologies on posting this here but I needed a quick answer.
Please feel free to move this to the relevant thread once answered.
Thanks

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by almost

Guru's
Long time follower first time poster but a big fan of all the hard work you guys put in. The depth of knowledge that some of you guys have is amazing; makes life easy for quite a few of I am sure.
I have a quick question - Does the cutoff date of 1st May 2009 include 1st May or not. I think it isn't but just want to make sure. Would appreciate if someone can clarify. My apologies on posting this here but I needed a quick answer.
Please feel free to move this to the relevant thread once answered.
Thanks

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almost,

Welcome to the forum!

The cutoff date of 1st May 2009 does not include the PD of 1st May'09. Period!

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Originally Posted by almost

Guru's
Long time follower first time poster but a big fan of all the hard work you guys put in. The depth of knowledge that some of you guys have is amazing; makes life easy for quite a few of I am sure.
I have a quick question - Does the cutoff date of 1st May 2009 include 1st May or not. I think it isn't but just want to make sure. Would appreciate if someone can clarify. My apologies on posting this here but I needed a quick answer.
Please feel free to move this to the relevant thread once answered.
Thanks

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almost welcome to the forum.

I think the cutoff date doesn't include the cut-off date. i.e. in this case it should be 30 April 2009 and prior.

But I could be wrong. So lets see what others think.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Congrats to all those who got current!

In FY2012, CO decided to build demand when USCIS I-485 EB2-I inventory dipped to 9K (technically, should we consider EB2IC since they were lock step then?) and dates were 3 or 4 months of the last max value.

After using demand up to 01 MAY 09, EB2-I inventory would have approx. 18K to 19K left.

Assuming, same is the case this time, when might inventory build up happen? Would FY2015 SOFAD allow another (10K+porting +new filings) to be used up? So demand build up at the end of FY 2015 or early FY 2016 would be likely? I know its way too early, but I would like everybody's initial thoughts.

2nd half of FY 2015 would certainly be used to build demand for EB3ROW & EB2C. That is a given. May be even earlier.

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kd,

I have slightly whacky outside thought on that.

Normally I would say that late FY2015/early FY2016 might be unlikely.

Firstly, I have a feeling CO might feel slightly uncomfortable with EB2-I dates being very, very different from EB2-C, who as you say, must almost certainly move forward in FY2015.

Perversely, the new Medical policy might make it easier to move dates forward, if CO can gain some cooperation from USCIS (difficult I know).

Normally, the problem in moving dates forward is that it makes later dates current and, since they are preadjudicated, almost instant demand that DOS sees and must issue a visa for. That screws up whether enough visas are available versus instant demand and the possibility of late PDs being approved rather than a generally FIFO approach.

Now we have the situation where any EB2-I case that has not received a RFE for a new I-693 is essentially no longer preadjudicated. Without a new I-693, they cannot convert to demand that DOS sees, since USCIS cannot approve them.

If CO was assured that USCIS would not issue RFE for new I-693 to late 2009/2010 cases (as appropriate), then he could actually move the COD forward safe in the knowledge that it would not increase the immediate demand for visas (other than a tiny number of CP cases perhaps).

He could then retrogress back to the true COD, having allowed people beyond 01MAY10 to file their I-485.

That would certainly be possible at the end of FY2015. Sufficient preadjudicated cases would (might) remain to process at the beginning of the new FY. By the time the COD moved forward substantially again (nearer the end of the FY), the newly filed cases would be preadjudicated and available for approval. It also means that CO would have visibility of the demand well ahead of time, unlike in FY2012.

Later PD would probably choose to defer the I-693 to a date when the COD reached their PD and USCIS issued an RFE for it.

A bit far out I know, but not entirely impossible. The main points against it are common sense and the need for cooperation between DOS and USCIS.

Thoughts?

Kanmani,
ugghhh.....
Thanks for the quick response. So, as I dreaded, I was correct indeed and this is very frustrating.... :(
...........atleast I picked a very apt name for my profile :)

My PD is 7/7/2008 and I haven't heard back from TSC on my 485 yet. My RFERR is June 17th and I am waiting to raise a SR next week. Meanwhile, EAD/AP is expiring in December and I was thinking to apply for a renewal next week hoping that might trigger them to look up my file and make a decision.

What do you guys think ?

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Originally Posted by almost

Kanmani,
ugghhh.....
Thanks for the quick response. So, as I dreaded, I was correct indeed and this is very frustrating.... :(
...........atleast I picked a very apt name for my profile :)

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I am so sorry that you missed it by one day.

That's a bummer. I was looking for closure but then that's life. Never ceases to shock and surprise. I am not going to feel sorry for myself but in a way I am relieved. Time to move on. I do have a Medical & an EVL RFE to which I have not yet replied, so in a way that's good. I am planning to send out the response in
a couple of weeks so may be I will not get a new one next year. Some people think that the dates may move some more next month, but I am not willing to hold out any hope for that. Good luck to people who missed out by a whisker for Oct's Bulletin and good luck to every one who is current.
"May the Force be with you" ;)

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Originally Posted by dorais

September bulletin is out. EB2I is 01May2009.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2014.html


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

INDIA Employment-based Second Preference: The use of potentially "otherwise unused" Employment numbers prescribed by Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) has allowed the India Employment Second preference cut-off date to advance very rapidly in recent months. Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

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This must be so frustrating - missing it by one day! Keep your chin up - its a matter of months and you should be through. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

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Originally Posted by almost

Kanmani,
ugghhh.....
Thanks for the quick response. So, as I dreaded, I was correct indeed and this is very frustrating.... :(
...........atleast I picked a very apt name for my profile :)

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Thanks Q. Your kind words are the only thing that makes me hopeful about getting greened this year from sluggish TSC.

Thanks Q,
As my luck would have it, and as you guys must have guessed, my PD is 1st May 2009 indeed ...thanks to my attorney who sat on the documents for more than a month before the stuff got sent out.
I think these guys came out with the verbiage on predictions just to rub it in further on guys like me who almost made it....lol
Now I gotta wait another month just to know for sure whether I have have a chance of making it this year or not....ugghhh

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Originally Posted by fedupwithgc

Thanks Q. Your kind words are the only thing that makes me hopeful about getting greened this year from sluggish TSC.

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Lets cross the fingers. Hopefully you will get through.

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Originally Posted by almost

Thanks Q,
As my luck would have it, and as you guys must have guessed, my PD is 1st May 2009 indeed ...thanks to my attorney who sat on the documents for more than a month before the stuff got sent out.
I think these guys came out with the verbiage on predictions just to rub it in further on guys like me who almost made it....lol
Now I gotta wait another month just to know for sure whether I have have a chance of making it this year or not....ugghhh

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You got the right attitude my friend! Immigration is so ridiculous that it helps to have a little bit of humor!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

kd,

I have slightly whacky outside thought on that.

Normally I would say that late FY2015/early FY2016 might be unlikely.

Firstly, I have a feeling CO might feel slightly uncomfortable with EB2-I dates being very, very different from EB2-C, who as you say, must almost certainly move forward in FY2015.

Perversely, the new Medical policy might make it easier to move dates forward, if CO can gain some cooperation from USCIS (difficult I know).

Normally, the problem in moving dates forward is that it makes later dates current and, since they are preadjudicated, almost instant demand that DOS sees and must issue a visa for. That screws up whether enough visas are available versus instant demand and the possibility of late PDs being approved rather than a generally FIFO approach.

Now we have the situation where any EB2-I case that has not received a RFE for a new I-693 is essentially no longer preadjudicated. Without a new I-693, they cannot convert to demand that DOS sees, since USCIS cannot approve them.

If CO was assured that USCIS would not issue RFE for new I-693 to late 2009/2010 cases (as appropriate), then he could actually move the COD forward safe in the knowledge that it would not increase the immediate demand for visas (other than a tiny number of CP cases perhaps).

He could then retrogress back to the true COD, having allowed people beyond 01MAY10 to file their I-485.

That would certainly be possible at the end of FY2015. Sufficient preadjudicated cases would (might) remain to process at the beginning of the new FY. By the time the COD moved forward substantially again (nearer the end of the FY), the newly filed cases would be preadjudicated and available for approval. It also means that CO would have visibility of the demand well ahead of time, unlike in FY2012.

Later PD would probably choose to defer the I-693 to a date when the COD reached their PD and USCIS issued an RFE for it.

A bit far out I know, but not entirely impossible. The main points against it are common sense and the need for cooperation between DOS and USCIS.

Thoughts?

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That is a very neat, creative & comforting point of view for those who are waiting to file their I-485 - including me. But alas, it shall never come to pass precisely because of the two very important reasons you stated: common sense & co-operation. Neither of which are mandated by law for USCIS or DOS. Both them are slow on uptake to changing landscapes. So I humbly have to say "it ain't happening."

So given the reality, what do you think will happen by end of next FY? Fingers crossed.

Also, we will know what will happen earlier than usual thanks to the new medical exam I-693 policy.

Viz, My PD is 7/7/2008 and my RFERR is 6/17/14 and still waiting.... They better start working on July cases first :)

I hear you almost!. Imagine my husband's date 3rd May 2010. we missed it by 3 days the first time and all this because of his lawyer who messed up the PERM labor filed in 2007! went into audit for 2.5 yrs and got denied for some stupid error on the part of the lawyer and mind you he works for a reputed American company...its all fate and luck!

Almost,

Your selected NAME brought the curse to you! You were ALMOST in! Wish you would have chosen a different handle, and hope the date moves forward in the next bulletin.

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Originally Posted by almost

Kanmani,
ugghhh.....
Thanks for the quick response. So, as I dreaded, I was correct indeed and this is very frustrating.... :(
...........atleast I picked a very apt name for my profile :)

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Long time lurker here. This blog has been phenomenal in bringing about clarity for a process that is mind numbingly irritating. The experts on this forum are doing a great job that cannot be thanked enough.

Your logic and number crunching has been pretty spot on. Given your experience, could you care to speculate on what you see happening with EB2 porters for July and Aug. Especially given how TSC has been quick to send out FP notices right after receipts where as NSC took about 5 weeks after receipts. Thanks in advance.

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Originally Posted by anuprab

I hear you almost!. Imagine my husband's date 3rd May 2010. we missed it by 3 days the first time and all this because of his lawyer who messed up the PERM labor filed in 2007! went into audit for 2.5 yrs and got denied for some stupid error on the part of the lawyer and mind you he works for a reputed American company...its all fate and luck!

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I feel your pain anuprab and thanks for the kinds words. Just hang in there and hope for the best. Hopefull it will be over soon and be for the better.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

That is a very neat, creative & comforting point of view for those who are waiting to file their I-485 - including me. But alas, it shall never come to pass precisely because of the two very important reasons you stated: common sense & co-operation. Neither of which are mandated by law for USCIS or DOS. Both them are slow on uptake to changing landscapes. So I humbly have to say "it ain't happening."

So given the reality, what do you think will happen by end of next FY? Fingers crossed.

Also, we will know what will happen earlier than usual thanks to the new medical exam I-693 policy.

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kd,

If there is no creative solution, or unless there are substantial FB visas available in FY2015, I don't see a move beyond 01MAY10 until the second half of FY2016.

Vedu,
Lol. I saw the bulletin and then chose the name knowing that my fate is most likely "almost" for this time :cool:
I am still hoping that the date do move forward in the next one and they allocate the next years quota by end of this year. Will save me the trouble of renewing EAD which expires in March 15. Other than that I dont care much as I made the career move without waiting for the GC.

I looked at PD movement for EB 2 India for last 9 years and Oct bulletins never advances the date. ( exception of one year with +15 days move)

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Originally Posted by almost

Vedu,
Lol. I saw the bulletin and then chose the name knowing that my fate is most likely "almost" for this time :cool:
I am still hoping that the date do move forward in the next one and they allocate the next years quota by end of this year. Will save me the trouble of renewing EAD which expires in March 15. Other than that I dont care much as I made the career move without waiting for the GC.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

kd,

If there is no creative solution, or unless there are substantial FB visas available in FY2015, I don't see a move beyond 01MAY10 until the second half of FY2016.

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Spec, thanks for the indication. May be I should be back after another year & a half :p

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

If CO did that, he would be one of my favorite people in this world.

I totally agree that the new medical policy gives the USCIS a new tool to curb the demand. This can only mean that CO will get tremendous flexibility to move dates and make folks in 2010/early 2011 current. I really hope they can pull this off.

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Last time CO kept on talking about "insufficient demand" as he moved dates during Jul'11 to Apr'12 - and built up inventory for around 3 years.

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Originally Posted by aquatican

I looked at PD movement for EB 2 India for last 9 years and Oct bulletins never advances the date. ( exception of one year with +15 days move)

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aquatican,
I do believe what you are saying is correct but this time it's the ambiquity of the verbiage on predictions that induces hope. We will know for sure in a few weeks. I am counting more on the next year's quota at this point.

Juky 15th 2008 to May 1st 2009 total Inventory is 13,365 + Back log 4 K + Eb3 to EB2 porting 3K - 16K required to maintain 4K backlog for next year. anything less than that means inventory backlog before May 1st 2009 will be more than 4K, Do EB2 India get 16K this year???????

ESTIMATE NUMBERS:
Assume EB2 India gets 16K this year,For Next year EB2 India remaining Inventory is
May 1st 2009 to May 1st 2010 is 13,344 + Back log 4 K + Eb3 to EB2 porting 3K so atleast 20K required to clear current Inventory.
TOTAL NUMBERS
July '2013 to July'2014 EB2 India Inventory diff is = 43418 - 31,234 = 12K actual inventory reduction happend for last year, next 2 years we may get spill over more than last year...

keeping this trend makes inventory after this year(2014) movement will be 31 - 12 = 19K and after Next year(2015) 19K-12K = 7k left for Year 2016....

Both logics demand 20K and possibilty of 20K allocation to EB2 India may no happen this next year SO Building Inventory may not happen before Sept'2015..............


Next year spill over

EB 5 - 0 Throughout last year prediction was cutoffdate for EB5 china, it may happen this year.

EB1 - 0

Last July'2013 EB1 Inventory was 11,016 and this July 2014 inventory is 20,128 so inventory increased by 9K EB1 demand is surging don't expect spill over...
EB2 ROW

Last July'2013 EB1 Inventory was 7,742 and this July 2014 inventory is 12,173 so inventory increased by 5K next year we are starting with 5K more demand for EB2 ROW.