EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Thanks for the replies.

I wont be using EAD or AP as I have H1B visa stamping till Sept 2013. and I dont want to use EAD till I get my GC.

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Originally Posted by jackbrown_890

qblogfan,
You are right - for him it makes sense to send application now,, since December is too far. any thing can happen. but still hard choice, because he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...
and if he wants his wife to be here after marriage, he will be stuck on H1 like me till dates become current for him again since his wife will be on H4 until he can file for her AOS. so no EAD benefits

again correct me if i wrong..."i actually want someone to prove me wrong on not being able use EAD because i am in the same situation" lol

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"... he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...."

This is NOT entirely true. You SHOULD not leave your primary H1B job for EAD. The case that you mentioned will arise only if the applicant leaves his H1B job for a EAD job.

At this juncture, I'd like to reiterate to everyone that LEAVING your H1b for EAD is not a smart move. Don't make that decision in haste before getting your GC in hand. You can use your EAD for a second job, if you will.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jackbrown_890

qblogfan,
You are right - for him it makes sense to send application now,, since December is too far. any thing can happen. but still hard choice, because he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...
and if he wants his wife to be here after marriage, he will be stuck on H1 like me till dates become current for him again since his wife will be on H4 until he can file for her AOS. so no EAD benefits

again correct me if i wrong..."i actually want someone to prove me wrong on not being able use EAD because i am in the same situation" lol

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Just because you get an EAD/AP does not meet you lose your H status..you can continue on H status and wife can come on H4...

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Sorry, I meant, if you USE EAD!!!

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Originally Posted by leo07

"... he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...."

This is NOT entirely true. You SHOULD not leave your primary H1B job for EAD. The case that you mentioned will arise only if the applicant leaves his H1B job for a EAD job.

At this juncture, I'd like to reiterate to everyone that LEAVING your H1b for EAD is not a smart move. Don't make that decision in haste before getting your GC in hand. You can use your EAD for a second job, if you will.

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I agree, you should not be leaving ur h1 for no reason,,.but i was talking about if situation arises and if i have to leave my job or loose my job,, can I change jobs using AC21 if i am using EAD (may b after 180 days)? or if not and if i loose my H1 job before AOS approval, do I have to transfer H1 and start GC process from the beginning?

I think EAD can be used for any employer. So what is the risk of using EAD when you have H-1? Please explain

Quote:

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Originally Posted by leo07

"... he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...."

This is NOT entirely true. You SHOULD not leave your primary H1B job for EAD. The case that you mentioned will arise only if the applicant leaves his H1B job for a EAD job.

At this juncture, I'd like to reiterate to everyone that LEAVING your H1b for EAD is not a smart move. Don't make that decision in haste before getting your GC in hand. You can use your EAD for a second job, if you will.

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Hi GURU's

what do you think the moment will be in march & april bulletion's...i know we cant calculate much as not much data is available, as of the this moment is pretty much enough for atleast 2- 3 years of visa numbers...

in ron's forum he mentioned

'Based on the information contained in Part D, as well as the announced demand data, it appears that the USCIS is not doing a very good job of processing files to completion. If this continues (and it likely will), then it is entirely possible that India and China EB2 could become current or near-current by May.'

'The Visa Office uses all known demand through about the 25th of the previous month. They take into account NVC cases that are deemed "documentarily qualified" as well as known USCIS demand for visas. They look at the available supply of visas for the upcoming month, apply the known demand to it, and try to calculate how many applicants can be given visas without exceeding the permissible supply. '

just adding this for discussion and perspective from you guys..... :)

Guys, I saw an approval on MITBBS and he/she submitted 485 in November. It looks like USCIS is not only approving Oct. cases, but also approving Nov. cases.

NSC-RD2011/10/20 -PD2007/5/31- i485Approved at 2011/12/24

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Guys, I saw an approval on MITBBS and he/she submitted 485 in November. It looks like USCIS is not only approving Oct. cases, but also approving Nov. cases.

NSC-RD2011/10/20 -PD2007/5/31- i485Approved at 2011/12/24

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RD is 20th Oct.- so isn't he/she OCt filer than November?

So more approvals flowing in means there is less likelihood that CO moves dates aggresively? Bummer! My PD is Sep 2010.

I am sorry. It was an October case, not November Case.

It looks like they are approving October cases right now. Maybe November cases will be approved later this month or next month.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

RD is 20th Oct.- so isn't he/she OCt filer than November?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by mesan123

Hi GURU's

what do you think the moment will be in march & april bulletion's...i know we cant calculate much as not much data is available, as of the this moment is pretty much enough for atleast 2- 3 years of visa numbers...

in ron's forum he mentioned

'Based on the information contained in Part D, as well as the announced demand data, it appears that the USCIS is not doing a very good job of processing files to completion. If this continues (and it likely will), then it is entirely possible that India and China EB2 could become current or near-current by May.'

'The Visa Office uses all known demand through about the 25th of the previous month. They take into account NVC cases that are deemed "documentarily qualified" as well as known USCIS demand for visas. They look at the available supply of visas for the upcoming month, apply the known demand to it, and try to calculate how many applicants can be given visas without exceeding the permissible supply. '

just adding this for discussion and perspective from you guys..... :)

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Thanks for posting. This seems to be happening for the Jan & Feb VB's. Good for everyone since the dates made massive advancements in the last 2 VB's especially. Theoretically now 2 more 1 year advancements are required to make the dates literally current. The USCIS processing speed will now hold the key if they are looking at the "documentarily qualified" as the demand. Good luck to everyone in 2010 for the next VB. Let’s keep monitoring the approvals, there certainly have been brisk approvals in the early days of the month / year.

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

Nishant, thanks for quick reply.Can you elobarate on your last lines

I think actual GC issuance will clear 2007 assuming demand destruction is reality, around 22-24k SO, and Q1 2008 somewhere dates will stick at end of FY.

if VB retrogress and stalls at Mar/Jun 2008, when we are expecting next movement, which moves into 2010?as we are aware, CO already build pipeline for next 2 years will it be somewhere in 2013 Jan or 2013 Oct or 2014?

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Whenever retrogression happens, we will be kind of back to the situation we had after the July 2007 fiasco. CO would have a well defined inventory and demand data, and after that it's his choice if he wants to go back to his annual SO, or continue QSP strategy.

If he goes back to his annual SO, whenever he shall see below 10k remaining in demand data, that's when I think he will start pulling tricks out of the bag to again make inventory.

If he goes via QSP, then I believe it will put pressure on USCIS to perform well on the categories which are marked as current (like EB1, EB2 ROW), and in any quarter, they are low on these categories, the EB2IC 485s which are sitting pre-adjudicated will win, and there would be more regular movement in dates as compared to annual SO.

For example, if dates finally stop at March 2008 for FY 2012, then in FY 2013, if CO does annual SO strategy, then the normal quota of few hundreds each month would just lead to a week or so movement every VB, until he applies annual SO in ending of FY, and that's when major date movement would happen. But if he does QSP in FY 2013 also, then depending on QSP projection, even if the QSP is projected to be 6k, dates could move as much as three months instead of the three weeks in Q1 FY 2013.

This brings us somewhat back to the SOFAD discussion. Are we still thinking 20-25K this year i.e. till about Mar 2008?

All,

I believe due to demand destruction and low filings even with out HR 3012 we will reach End of 2008.

Gurus,

Can you guys please come up with maximum GC issuance date with hr 3012 and with out 3012.

That would bring clarity to me and so many other people.

Thanks in advance

Sai.

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Originally Posted by sai999

All,

I believe due to demand destruction and low filings even with out HR 3012 we will reach End of 2008.

Gurus,

Can you guys please come up with maximum GC issuance date with hr 3012 and with out 3012.

That would bring clarity to me and so many other people.

Thanks in advance

Sai.

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Sai,

To put into context what you are saying, with numbers, the Overall Ratio for CY2007 and CY2008 new applications would have to be around 0.40 to use only 25k visas for EB2-IC up to a Cut Off Date of 01JAN09 in FY2012. That compares to the 0.8 - 1.0 that I think Teddy and me use.

Using my assumptions for other factors, that is Demand Destruction of 62%, assuming 20% of PERM cases are denied at the I-140 stage ( and that may be an over estimation).

Using Teddy's assumptions, the Demand Destruction would have to be even higher - 69%.

That doesn't even take into account Porting cases or extra numbers left with PDs from FY2011. If those were factored in, then Demand Destruction of 71-76% might be required.

You may be comfortable with such extreme numbers - personally, I am not with the evidence to hand at the moment.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Whenever retrogression happens, we will be kind of back to the situation we had after the July 2007 fiasco. CO would have a well defined inventory and demand data, and after that it's his choice if he wants to go back to his annual SO, or continue QSP strategy.

If he goes back to his annual SO, whenever he shall see below 10k remaining in demand data, that's when I think he will start pulling tricks out of the bag to again make inventory.

If he goes via QSP, then I believe it will put pressure on USCIS to perform well on the categories which are marked as current (like EB1, EB2 ROW), and in any quarter, they are low on these categories, the EB2IC 485s which are sitting pre-adjudicated will win, and there would be more regular movement in dates as compared to annual SO.

For example, if dates finally stop at March 2008 for FY 2012, then in FY 2013, if CO does annual SO strategy, then the normal quota of few hundreds each month would just lead to a week or so movement every VB, until he applies annual SO in ending of FY, and that's when major date movement would happen. But if he does QSP in FY 2013 also, then depending on QSP projection, even if the QSP is projected to be 6k, dates could move as much as three months instead of the three weeks in Q1 FY 2013.

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Nishant, thanks for the detailed reply. Hope next month eb2 moves atleast 3 months.Mine is mar 15 2010.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Sai,

To put into context what you are saying, with numbers, the Overall Ratio for CY2007 and CY2008 new applications would have to be around 0.40 to use only 25k visas for EB2-IC up to a Cut Off Date of 01JAN09 in FY2012. That compares to the 0.8 - 1.0 that I think Teddy and me use.

Using my assumptions for other factors, that is Demand Destruction of 62%, assuming 20% of PERM cases are denied at the I-140 stage ( and that may be an over estimation).

Using Teddy's assumptions, the Demand Destruction would have to be even higher - 69%.

That doesn't even take into account Porting cases or extra numbers left with PDs from FY2011. If those were factored in, then Demand Destruction of 71-76% might be required.

You may be comfortable with such extreme numbers - personally, I am not with the evidence to hand at the moment.

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Once again thank you so much for your valuable time and also you proved you are man with numbers.

so i totally understand what you are saying ,i know we have 7000 cases left in the 2007 and we need to consider porting also.

Lets put in this way

2007 cases : 7000
Porting : 4000
Aug 15 -Dec 30 : 5000 (around 1000 month including I+C)
Jan 08 - Dec 08 : 1000 (around 1000 month I+C)
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Total : 26000

Thanks in advance
so with out HR 3012 are we still sticking to March 2008 (even demand destruction) ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sai999

Once again thank you so much for your valuable time and also you proved you are man with numbers.

so i totally understand what you are saying ,i know we have 7000 cases left in the 2007 and we need to consider porting also.

Lets put in this way

2007 cases : 7000
Porting : 4000
Aug 15 -Dec 30 : 5000 (around 1000 month including I+C)
Jan 08 - Dec 08 : 1000 (around 1000 month I+C)
------------------------------------------------------------
Total : 26000

Thanks in advance
so with out HR 3012 are we still sticking to March 2008 (even demand destruction) ?

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Hi Sai,

Thanks for the response.

Here is how I see it at present.

We know from the Demand Data that there were 8k cases remaining with a PD earlier than 15APR07 as we started the year. The USCIS Inventory (and approvals) suggest this figure might be as high 10k, although that may include some Porting cases. Let's just use the 8k figure.

PWMB to the end of the backlog is a further 3.3k.

New cases to December 2007 are a further 8.7k.

January - December 2008 are 21.9k.

So that gives:

Existing Cases -------- 8.0
PWMB ------------------ 3.3
Backlog to Dec 31 07 -- 8.7

Total 2007 Cases ----- 20.0

Total 2008 Cases ----- 21.9

Total to end of 2008 - 41.9
Porting --------------- 4.0

Total ---------------- 45.9

The above figures assume an OR of 0.8.

I fully accept that the figures could be lower than that calculation.

To get as low as 1k cases per month, you need Demand Destruction of around 60%, giving an OR of 0.44.

I'm not saying that is impossible, but I would rather see some evidence to back up that level of DD. I'm not sure where that evidence is going to come from in the short term.

P.S. The definition of OR is some pages back. It is the ratio of PERM Certifications (which include EB3, but exclude Dependents) to EB2 I-485 applications (which include Dependents). So an OR of 0.8 is saying that 100 PERM Certifications for EB2 & EB3 converts to 80 EB2 I-485 applications. Without any factors being applied, the OR would be 1.33 to 1.59, depending on the EB2:EB3 split used.

Sportsfan,

hope you are busy in packing for your india trip, whats your attorney's take on next months Visa bulletin? Does it move atleast 3 more months? your attorney's words came true last time... I wish you will get insider's info this time as well.... needed 3 more months for me. it may happen in next month or i may need to wait for 2 more years. fingers crossed.

Spec,
So going by your numbers - 46.5 or lower - we could see additional movement IF CO wants 50k in the pipeline, right?

I'm assuming 50k is 2 yrs with SOFAD of 25k per year.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec,
So going by your numbers - 46.5 or lower - we could see additional movement IF CO wants 50k in the pipeline, right?

I'm assuming 50k is 2 yrs with SOFAD of 25k per year.

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vizcard,

Note that the figure above is only to the end of 2008.

The Feb VB moves the Cut Off date to the end of 2009.

That represents about 56.7k + Porting etc with an OR of 0.8.

I think there may well be further movement, because I believe CO wants to see actual Demand appearing, rather than relying on USCIS figures and promises. I can't begin to guess what the future movement might be.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

Note that the figure above is only to the end of 2008.

The Feb VB moves the Cut Off date to the end of 2009.

That represents about 56.7k + Porting etc with an OR of 0.8.

I think there may well be further movement, because I believe CO wants to see actual Demand appearing, rather than relying on USCIS figures and promises. I can't begin to guess what the future movement might be.

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This is true. I overlooked the 2009 portion of this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec,
So going by your numbers - 46.5 or lower - we could see additional movement IF CO wants 50k in the pipeline, right?

I'm assuming 50k is 2 yrs with SOFAD of 25k per year.

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I think Spec not included numbers for 2009.not sure though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

Note that the figure above is only to the end of 2008.

The Feb VB moves the Cut Off date to the end of 2009.

That represents about 56.7k + Porting etc with an OR of 0.8.

I think there may well be further movement, because I believe CO wants to see actual Demand appearing, rather than relying on USCIS figures and promises. I can't begin to guess what the future movement might be.

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I think there may well be further movement, because I believe CO wants to see actual Demand appearing, rather than relying on USCIS figures and promises. I can't begin to guess what the future movement might be.

i like the above line, that has to happen, else i need to wait for almost 2 years more...

Spec, you are just awesome with numbers :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Hi Sai,

Thanks for the response.

Here is how I see it at present.

We know from the Demand Data that there were 8k cases remaining with a PD earlier than 15APR07 as we started the year. The USCIS Inventory (and approvals) suggest this figure might be as high 10k, although that may include some Porting cases. Let's just use the 8k figure.

PWMB to the end of the backlog is a further 3.3k.

New cases to December 2007 are a further 8.7k.

January - December 2008 are 21.9k.

So that gives:

Existing Cases -------- 8.0
PWMB ------------------ 3.3
Backlog to Dec 31 07 -- 8.7

Total 2007 Cases ----- 20.0

Total 2008 Cases ----- 21.9

Total to end of 2008 - 41.9
Porting --------------- 4.0

Total ---------------- 45.9

The above figures assume an OR of 0.8.

I fully accept that the figures could be lower than that calculation.

To get as low as 1k cases per month, you need Demand Destruction of around 60%, giving an OR of 0.44.

I'm not saying that is impossible, but I would rather see some evidence to back up that level of DD. I'm not sure where that evidence is going to come from in the short term.

P.S. The definition of OR is some pages back. It is the ratio of PERM Certifications (which include EB3, but exclude Dependents) to EB2 I-485 applications (which include Dependents). So an OR of 0.8 is saying that 100 PERM Certifications for EB2 & EB3 converts to 80 EB2 I-485 applications. Without any factors being applied, the OR would be 1.33 to 1.59, depending on the EB2:EB3 split used.

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The above numbers means its just like a mini Fiasco (representing same like 2007) and it also looks to me that for someone with 2008 PD it would take a little more than a year or may be two :(

I wouldn't call it a fiasco this time, as it is a calculated move. But, yes, in general I agree with your inference that it could take that long for 2008 filers.
Curious, if any 2008 filers got their EAD/AP? if so, is it for 1 year or two years?

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Originally Posted by Desperate8

The above numbers means its just like a mini Fiasco (representing same like 2007) and it also looks to me that for someone with 2008 PD it would take a little more than a year or may be two :(

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Please pardon my ignorance, but what is demand destruction?

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Originally Posted by HR3012

Please pardon my ignorance, but what is demand destruction?

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PERMS filed that don't translate to 485s

Gurus,

Out of my current situation and curiosity, i was wondering why would USCIS retrogress dates when they can either just not progress the dates any further? They can keep the dates as is instead of retrogressing? I mean, if the intent is to give EAD to people waiting for long time, and making money, why retrogress, keep the dates where they are.

Thanks in Advance.

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Gurus,

Out of my current situation and curiosity, i was wondering why would USCIS retrogress dates when they can either just not progress the dates any further? They can keep the dates as is instead of retrogressing? I mean, if the intent is to give EAD to people waiting for long time, and making money, why retrogress, keep the dates where they are.

Thanks in Advance.

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First of all, USCIS does not set the dates. It is the Department of State that sets the dates, a completely different entity than USCIS. Department of State does not like to retrogress dates. It does that because USCIS does not provide correct data on number of applications.

If dates are kept as is, USCIS will eventually approve applications more than the allowed quotas and this may violate Immigration Nationality Act.

Thanks for the quick reply.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

First of all, USCIS does not set the dates. It is the Department of State that sets the dates, a completely different entity than USCIS. Department of State does not like to retrogress dates. It does that because USCIS does not provide correct data on number of applications.

If dates are kept as is, USCIS will eventually approve applications more than the allowed quotas and this may violate Immigration Nationality Act.

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Nishant_imt,

As KD said, the primary purpose of the Cut Off Dates is to control the number of visas issued to stay within the various statutory limits. That is not how they are being used at present for EB2-IC - it is to build up an Inventory.

However far the COD advance, it won't alter the number of actual visas available to EB2-IC in FY2012. Let's say that is enough to grant all qualified applicants to the end of March 2008 a GC.

For an approval to take place, the COD must be Current for the PD at the time a visa is requested.

If the COD was left at 01JAN10, then cases up to that date could also be approved. DOS could just stop issuing visas once the limit was reached in an extreme case (as they did prior to the end of FY2011).

That might be great for a person if it happened to their December 2009 PD case, but a person with a PD earlier than April 2008 who couldn't be approved because visas had been exhausted would not share that opinion.

Retrogressing the COD to a point that just covers visa availability not only ensures that limits are not exceeded, but also ensures some fairness in which PD are approved.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Nishant_imt,

As KD said, the primary purpose of the Cut Off Dates is to control the number of visas issued to stay within the various statutory limits. That is not how they are being used at present for EB2-IC - it is to build up an Inventory.

However far the COD advance, it won't alter the number of actual visas available to EB2-IC in FY2012. Let's say that is enough to grant all qualified applicants to the end of March 2008 a GC.

For an approval to take place, the COD must be Current for the PD at the time a visa is requested.

If the COD was left at 01JAN10, then cases up to that date could also be approved. DOS could just stop issuing visas once the limit was reached in an extreme case (as they did prior to the end of FY2011).

That might be great for a person if it happened to their December 2009 PD case, but a person with a PD earlier than April 2008 who couldn't be approved because visas had been exhausted would not share that opinion.

Retrogressing the COD to a point that just covers visa availability not only ensures that limits are not exceeded, but also ensures some fairness in which PD are approved.

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Great Explanation, Spec!!

Also does it not mean anyone with PD less 01/01/2010 can apply for a GC through CP. Retrogessing the dates will also control how many CP cases are processed outside of US.

Have not followed the recent calculations, but surprised to see lot of demand destruction in the calculations, hopefully it will turn out to be true and will benefit everyone.

The recent date movement is really a not to miss opportunity, my PD is in Dec 2007 and I've waited to file 485 for four years. Someone with a PD of late 2009 getting to file in early 2012 is a big relief with the current issues with H1 extensions and stamping.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Nishant_imt,

As KD said, the primary purpose of the Cut Off Dates is to control the number of visas issued to stay within the various statutory limits. That is not how they are being used at present for EB2-IC - it is to build up an Inventory.

However far the COD advance, it won't alter the number of actual visas available to EB2-IC in FY2012. Let's say that is enough to grant all qualified applicants to the end of March 2008 a GC.

For an approval to take place, the COD must be Current for the PD at the time a visa is requested.

If the COD was left at 01JAN10, then cases up to that date could also be approved. DOS could just stop issuing visas once the limit was reached in an extreme case (as they did prior to the end of FY2011).

That might be great for a person if it happened to their December 2009 PD case, but a person with a PD earlier than April 2008 who couldn't be approved because visas had been exhausted would not share that opinion.

Retrogressing the COD to a point that just covers visa availability not only ensures that limits are not exceeded, but also ensures some fairness in which PD are approved.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

For those interested. This is what the lawyer told me was likely to happen in the coming months.

In the earlier meeting, he seemed positive about a March movement, but today, he said the chances of movement were less (< 50%). He also said if "nothing else changes", retrogression is a certainty and most likely the dates were set to go back into 2007s. The company is advising all employees to file while the window remains open until April.

To summarize:

- March: stall/forward movement.
- April: Stall
- May onwards: retrogression.

Good luck to all. I hope things turn out better for 2010 filers. 2009 has turned out to be the luckiest EB2-I year in recent memory, and should be framed on the wall in fond remembrance.

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That's bad, but expected. Hope they push atleast 3 months into 2010, will wait and see.This may take almost 1.5 to 2 years to move forward.

I think lot will also depend on what happens to H.r.3012 in congress this month.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

For those interested. This is what the lawyer told me was likely to happen in the coming months.

In the earlier meeting, he seemed positive about a March movement, but today, he said the chances of movement were less (< 50%). He also said if "nothing else changes", retrogression is a certainty and most likely the dates were set to go back into 2007s. The company is advising all employees to file while the window remains open until April.

To summarize:

- March: stall/forward movement.
- April: Stall
- May onwards: retrogression.

Good luck to all. I hope things turn out better for 2010 filers. 2009 has turned out to be the luckiest EB2-I year in recent memory, and should be framed on the wall in fond remembrance.

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What news could the next bulletin bring us?
A) Movement by another year
B) Gets Current
C) No movement
D) Retrograde

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Originally Posted by sugada

What news could the next bulletin bring us?
A) Movement by another year
B) Gets Current
C) No movement
D) Retrograde

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I tend to agree with sportsfan33 in post #4205

Update from Ron's site about EB2's movement
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...-advances.html