Wow! That's it! One more Year!
('Four more years' was a happy message though.)
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Wow! That's it! One more Year!
('Four more years' was a happy message though.)
So as expected the EB2-I dates did move albeit not upto Oct 2009.
And that is fine. It is a good indication of how DoS is committed to FIFO from its end. In other words they want to make sure that they can provide visas to people in the order of their priority and do it in a manner that ensures visa availability for most of them.
I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear. People in April have probably 50% chance since I would imagine CO made slightly bigger move than was necessary to ensure all Visas get utilized.
I am also cautiously optimistic that the dates may not retrogress upto Dec bulletin. So people in April 2009 should at least get through in Oct/Nov if not in Sep. Good luck everybody.
Comparing commentary in Sep 2014 bulletin vs Sep 2013 bulletin, suggests there could be more date movement next month
Sep 2014 (keeping it open)
Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.
Sep 2013 (commentary suggestive of movement having been completed)
India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.
No movement for China!??
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
They don't get the benefit of these extra visas during last month because the visas go to most backlogged country i.e. India.Quote:
Originally Posted by qbloguser
However I would've expected 1 month movement for China. The fact there wasn't means China has reached their cap for the year in August itself.
Can one expect further movement in the Oct bulletin based on the 2015 quota being available or is that it until July 2015 ? If it is the latter what happens to folks after May 2009 who have responded to the RFE - medicals again next year ?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Is it true that the visa number is allocated in FIFO by priority date? My priority data is Sep 30 2008 and my attorney will apply the AOS sometime this week (say by Aug 15th). So do you think that I have a good chance of getting GC this year only, provided there are no major RFEs? thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Vishnu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
I interpreted the wordings in the same way you did, but that doesn't fit right into the retrogression warning on dates might be unavailable as early as November.
I am not ready for this 'Hope' theory at this moment. I am done.
I am a bit happy that my prediction on Sept'14 CoD was correct.
There is some weak evidence that would make one optimistic about some movement in Oct. This movement - if materializes - would strictly be based on 2015 quota and not based on the need to create inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by geniusmag
As of now there is no need for CO to create inventory because he still has 1 year worth EB2I inventory. But you never know he might want to have more than 1 year inventory on hand!
See Vishnu's post above. I concur with that view but I didn't want to raise expectations too much and hence I didn't talk about it in my earlier post today.
Oh Boy! So this year is done. Congratulations and best wishes to folks current in the Sept bulletin. Based on the movement, it seems like most of the folks current should be able to get through this FY or in Oct.
The language is vague enough to leave the possibility of an Oct movement. At least maintaining the dates during Oct seems like a good bet. Retrogression is scheduled for Nov bulletin. I am still holding out for 01NOV2009 in Oct bulletin to consume some of FY2015 numbers.
Sorry if it is disappointing but I don't think there will any further movement. May 09 is stretch and 2015 quota will be used to accommodate the PD's up until May 09. Also I am optimistic that retrogression will not happen in November. And for the folks after May 09, it starts all over again for MedicalsQuote:
Originally Posted by geniusmag
At a Macro level the answer is yes it is FIFO. For Sep 2009 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE). Sorry for the tough predicament. I hope Spec/Kanmani/Sport/Viz etc also chime in.Quote:
Originally Posted by Praslee
p.s. Regarding FIFO - DoS only indirectly ensures FIFO. If USCIS requests a visa number and one is available DoS has to give one. DoS doesn't really do anything else in terms of prioritizing. So it's really USCIS that needs to ensure FIFO and they do an ok job at it.
That's why DoS is very careful in moving the dates because otherwise USCIS is a crazy place .. they will approve 2009 folks while 2006 people are waiting. No kidding!
p.p.s. - I misread Praslee's date. My bad. Sep 2008 should be ok this year.
Now that the Sep bulletin is out, I think now TSC will start considering the Aug bulletin cases :)
Congrats to all who got current today and all here(Q, Spec, Kanmani,...) who got the calculations of this year EB2i movement very close to accurate. No surprises in either EB2I or EB3I.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Sorry that you did not get current this year, I like your optimism. See you around then!
EDIT: And a big thanks to Spec, Q and others who got it right again!. Trackit is down since yesterday, it cant handle Eb2I traffic.
Thanks. But in your original post you said "I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear". ZThen, what do you mean by saying "For Sep 2008 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE)."
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Stupid me!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Praslee
I read your date as Sep 2009. Sorry. Sep 2008 should get a GC this year itself. The dates will retrogress in Dec 2015. So you have ample time from now till then.
yeah I don't understand the same, my sister who was nov 2008 got cleared in first week of Aug. So I am guessing people upto May 2009 are definitely going to get cleared in the next 2 months or so.
Thanks. I can see you being overwhelmed with questions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
and viz kanmani sport jagan matt imdeng and many others. Sorry if I am forgetting anybody.Quote:
Originally Posted by cursedguy
Matt, I was praying for your optimistic prediction to come true just like it happened last year. I do check your excel sheet very often. Thanks.
Congratulations to all our members who are current and I wish Viz, Sportsfan and all others waiting, all the best for your speedy approval.
We started the year with EB2I: 15JUN08, ending with 01MAY09 -> 10.5 months movement. A less than 1 year movement even after some pretty significant tailwinds - EB2ROW slowdown, low density in EB2I during late 2008 and 2009, extra visas from FB. Given this, considering that next year is getting set up to be full of headwinds (except continued low density in EB2I in 2009), its going to be quite painful going forward. Buckle up folks - its going to be a rough ride.
do you think there will be movement post May 1 2010 to build inventory? This is so frustrating as we missed the boat 3 yrs back by 2 days and now waiting to get current. I am not even expecting greencard but just want to be able to file 485. Is this too much to ask !!
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Folks- I am a silent spectator of this forum for the past 2.5 years and this is my first post. I would be current in September. My PD is 04/09/09. Thanks to all the gurus for the accurate predictions. Now I am bracing myself for the roller coaster ride in September. Thanks again team...u guys are doing a awesome job.
I concur, thank you guys for doing such an accurate and noble job of helping us all! Being an uber optimist (Saggi trait) that I am, I would not lose hope about the dates not moving further. You never know after all it is DOS and our fav USCIS that we are talking about here :)!
Assuming an 18K pending demand/invenotry at the begining of FY2015 - Even if we get 8K approved for EB2I in FY2015, I would think/hope DOS would want to build inventory at the end of FY2015. I know it is wishful thinking (MY PD is Dec 2010).
On other note - I have not seen Demand data published in many months. Does any body know if that is gone?
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Welcome to the forum Anuprab. I understand your frustration. Nobody knows CO's mind - but based purely on numbers, CO has enough inventory to finish FY2015. So as such, there is no critical need to do inventory generation until early FY2016. However, this does not mean that it can not happen. CO might be more comfortable keeping more than 1 year demand in inventory - and in that case he might do inventory generation. When and how much - we can only guess.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anuprab
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I knew all along that it was a little difficult to reach that date, without over allocation. Though personally, I would have been more cheerful with you and few others getting current.
Even after the Sep bulletin, I am still confused about why those RFEs ? let time prove what is in store between now and the coming months, as no normal calculations, will not support such a movement in October or November. Technically, USCIS will have one year from RFE reply date to approve the cases.
I am hoping for majority of the cases getting cleared, at least that way there is a shorter queue for next FY. Trackitt being down most of time, reduces our visibility to approvals.
Congratulations gcseeker - wish you all the best. Hope this Sept as good as green for you and your family.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker2009
I don't think so. There will be one more forward movement in October VB and then final retrogession in November VB and that's it for this CY.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
If you see my previous posts back in june: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6953#post46953
I was assuming a conservative figure of 22k visa allocation for EB2-I in FY14. Looking at the current processing trends and considering the FY15 quota to be issued in Oct'14(as CO did last year) I still believe there is much scope for more forward movement in next VB.
Thanks imdeng. We are all paying the price for being legal, aren't we? but I am glad its this way atleast we have peace of mind. I hope if the CO generates inventory beginning FY 2016 it would mean around next summer or around Oct 2015 right? He has to for the fiscal year 2016...just hoping to be current...that's all!
Gurus - A silent reader in this forum, my PD is Feb-5th 2008 and I applied last year in Sep-2013. Recently in July my case went in to a Security check process. I raised an SR and got the response - "however, your case has not cleared all required security checks at this time". Having waited soo long for the GC (Entered US in 2000), this response is really a de-motivating. What are my options at this point? Should I contact the Congressman and ask for help? or raise another SR. Please advice.
Wheeler
So now we know - 01MAY09. My gut feeling says that seems about right for the number of visas that might be available.
My feeling is that is going to mean 3-4k cases falling into FY2015 based on the number of visas I expect to be available to EB2-I in FY2014. Most of those can be approved in early FY2015, if CO decides to use the initial FY2015 EB2-I allocation at the beginning of the year. I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.
How the rest of the FY progresses will, IMO, be dependent on whether there are spare FB visas or not. We should know that around mid/late January 2015 (when the DOS Visa Statistics are published), as well as exactly how many visas each Category and Country used.
Congratulations to everybody who became current.
Between 01MAY09 and 01NOV09, there are 6258 cases as per the latest inventory. Last year we had ~600 trackitt approvals for EB2I in Oct/Nov - which is ~7800 considering a trackitt multiple of 13. So we are playing in the same ballpark.
Of course, the above does not include any inventory carryover from FY2014 and new porting demand that will continue to hit as long as dates are not retrogressed.
Wheeler - sorry to hear your story. Try the Senator (not a rep congressman) first. If that doesn't go anywhere you need a lawyer to help. I am sure there is a legal way to hold DoS / USCIS accountable.Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeler234
Thanks for the response Q, I will contact the senator soon.
:(
The dagger into our collective hearts!
PS> *jk* of course. Rational mind knows you are right, but the wishful/hopeful mind can not help but argue for a better outcome.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Well they haven't finished the July cases :) -- speaking purely about my own case!Quote:
Originally Posted by rka_72
You are welcome wheeler.Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeler234
Let me clarify why I said senator as opposed to rep.
In American democracy Senate has the role of oversight and hence a senator has better connections with various government departments and agencies.
House of reps is focused more on allocating money. So I am not sure how a rep can influence a case where FBI check is stuck. Of course individuals might differ. But my first instinct would be to trust a senator to help in such matter or at least get a real picture of why something may be stuck and what can be done about it.
Imdeng- sorry for my ignorance.... you said that EB2I has low density in late 2008 but when I look at the inventory sheet it is showing more than 1600 for December 2008. Am I missing something?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng