EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Capacity, policy and executive push. This administration is determined to undo negative effects of prior administration as well as COVID. That means they will do everything they can do reduce backlogs from last year. How much can be done remains to be seen since they also need to consider, above else, their own employee well being (i mean consulate employees).

So the more favorable conditions arise, fully expect DOS / USCIS to work overdrive to reduce backlog here and abroad. One negative side effect on EB of course is that it will reduce FB->EB spillover. But I do expect significant visas to EB next year as well.

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qesehmk, thank you for your valuable time helping newbies like me in the community, much appreciated for your time. I have a situation where I got a new job offer and thinking to join in few weeks, my PD is Nov 2016 EB2I, as I don?t want to miss the opportunity for filling AOS by downgrading my I-140 if filling dates in EB3I is forwarded to PD Nov 2016( of course USCIS also have to honor filling dates for AOS in such a situation ) because new employer has to start PERM again and I will miss the one time in life opportunity if the filling dates are forwarded until Nov 2016 in EB3I for FY2022. Current employer will not support for AOS in future if I change the job now.

Any thoughts or predictions, do you think are there any chances in FY2022 on filling dates forward momentum to PD Nov 2016 in EB3I as there was 5 months ban on immigration until Feb 2021.

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Originally Posted by Djidondon

qesehmk, thank you for your valuable time helping newbies like me in the community, much appreciated for your time. I have a situation where I got a new job offer and thinking to join in few weeks, my PD is Nov 2016 EB2I, as I don?t want to miss the opportunity for filling AOS by downgrading my I-140 if filling dates in EB3I is forwarded to PD Nov 2016( of course USCIS also have to honor filling dates for AOS in such a situation ) because new employer has to start PERM again and I will miss the one time in life opportunity if the filling dates are forwarded until Nov 2016 in EB3I for FY2022. Current employer will not support for AOS in future if I change the job now.

Any thoughts or predictions, do you think are there any chances in FY2022 on filling dates forward momentum to PD Nov 2016 in EB3I as there was 5 months ban on immigration until Feb 2021.

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I wish you well. I am just one of many who contribute here.

Green card prediction business is difficult because the numbers are few and there are many things that vary.

Your date seems far enough that there could be significant uncertainty involved.

I have stopped calculating long back and built a tool that does it. Use it if you wish. Even if you don't generally speaking I always tell people to follow life and career and ignore GC. All the best!

Thank you for the quick response Q

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Originally Posted by krnashvom8

Long time reader (since 2012 probably) first time posting here.. First, would like to thank Q, Spec, Idliman.. and everyone on this forum. I know there are a lot more folks who have helped and guided ppl like me over the years.. great job by mods and contributors!
My PD is Jun 2010 and finally was able to file for 485 this past Oct and got EAD/AP now. Feels like a major milestone in this really long and arduous GC journey..

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Happy for you my friend.

It is an arduous journey. Luckily it is going to come to an end thanks to COVID spillover as well as potential scrapping of country limits. I wish the biden immigration plan is adopted or Dems should just ram it through the senate just like they did with COVID bill. Enough of GOP blocking immigration for over 2 decades now.

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Originally Posted by Djidondon

qesehmk, thank you for your valuable time helping newbies like me in the community, much appreciated for your time. I have a situation where I got a new job offer and thinking to join in few weeks, my PD is Nov 2016 EB2I, as I don?t want to miss the opportunity for filling AOS by downgrading my I-140 if filling dates in EB3I is forwarded to PD Nov 2016( of course USCIS also have to honor filling dates for AOS in such a situation ) because new employer has to start PERM again and I will miss the one time in life opportunity if the filling dates are forwarded until Nov 2016 in EB3I for FY2022. Current employer will not support for AOS in future if I change the job now.

Any thoughts or predictions, do you think are there any chances in FY2022 on filling dates forward momentum to PD Nov 2016 in EB3I as there was 5 months ban on immigration until Feb 2021.

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Your question is hard to answer simply because USCIS stopped publishing Pending Inventory data. Moreover no one know how many GCs USCIS will approve this year. What's the use of spillover, if people before you do not get GCs? They will always be standing infront of you in the backlog queue.

I understand your concern with the golden opportunity and missing out on submitting AOS application. You are in Nov 2016 (EB2I), almost 2017 in EB2I. Even if you get similar spillover (FB to EB) I don't think your PD will be current next year. Also keep in mind that when the consulates start ramping up workload, they will take away 10 to 20% of the GCs from CP process. If I am in your shoes, I would jump to the new employer, get my PERM done ASAP. I have to warn you that as one of the few remaining dinosaurs from 2012 EAD still roaming around, we have a lot of baggage and mostly get predictions wrong.

Hopefully other users of this forum will be able to provide their input that you can consider to make a decision. Good Luck.

Anyone who got current in March bulletin, has seen any updates to the I-485?

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Originally Posted by usvisas

Anyone who got current in March bulletin, has seen any updates to the I-485?

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no update so far

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Originally Posted by usvisas

Anyone who got current in March bulletin, has seen any updates to the I-485?

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I am in TSC. I had opened a service request. It got closed immediately a)without saying that the file with AO and b) without an expected time frame or 45 or 60 days. It is like a no-reply, reply to close outside processing time referrals. Guess we have to wait for our time in the Sun.

April Visa Bulletin is out.

EB1I - Current
EB2I - May 1st, 2010
EB3I - Sept 1st, 2010

Happy to see the class of 2012 getting cleared.

April 2021 bulletin out
Eb1 I current
Eb2 I May 1 2010
Eb3 I Sep 1 2010

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks and yes. But IMHO "same similar" in your own business is very simple to prove. All you have to do is create a portfolio of products and services that you are offering to your customers. But to me viability will be the key question. USCIS can still say if this company can support you and whether you will become a public charge. And thus a safe way to do this could be to have at least a couple of hundred thousands capital sitting in this company's bank account and withdraw salary from it.

I'd say consult a lawyer - that 500-1000 bucks will be worth it if anybody is seriously considering this.

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I consulted a lawyer and paid $175 for 30 mins call to discuss about the same topic. He said, law doesn't explicitly say one can't start business & run payroll in I-485 EAD unlike H1B. Reason being, when rules were written long time back for I-485, the expectation is that applicants will receive GC in 2-4 months. Final verdict from him is, I-485 EAD applicant have strong case to defend if USCIS raises this as an issue.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

April Visa Bulletin is out.

EB1I - Current
EB2I - May 1st, 2010
EB3I - Sept 1st, 2010

Happy to see the class of 2012 getting cleared.

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This is great news. This will definitely put pressure on USCIS to start approving GCs. Congratulations to all fellow 2012 EAD applicants. You all are FA current.

Added:

1. Ace got his wish of EB1I FA Current in one month. Lets see how this works for EB2I FA dates in future bulletins.
2. This movement is definitely considering FB to EB spillover. Not in the borderline of 7% country cap quota like last bulletin.
3. Definite change of attitude from DOS and they are making bold movements. There is no reason why they should stall movement now. They are indirectly telling USCIS that approving GCs is their problem. DOS job is to keeping moving the dates based on available GCs.
4. If there is any backlogger still remaining who wished for DT to win second term after seeing these movements?

Ver nice another 3 months FEB 2011 EB3 I should be current :cool:

Good to see VB to be released before the middle of the month like it used to before 2017, these are all positive changes from the new administration and hopefully they start publishing the pending inventory soon.

Ace's prediction was on the $.! Kudos to all that got current.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

April Visa Bulletin is out.

EB1I - Current
EB2I - May 1st, 2010
EB3I - Sept 1st, 2010

Happy to see the class of 2012 getting cleared.

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So glad to know that people from 2009 and May 2010 are on the cusp of getting cleared!you guys have waited for ages..almost there:)

Hi, My priority date Eb2, 28th April 2010 , Service Center : TSC is current as of the april 2021 visa bulletin. How has the trend been with RFEs from the TSC. I still do not see a lot of folks getting RFEs for older dates. So relieved and happy to be current 13 years after coming to the US.

Today, my priority date has become current, 9 years after filing I-485. What a great Friday ! Haven?t received any RFEs yet, what happens next? I hope we get a GC before another retrogression.

@TRAVELGOV BEGINS HOSTING MONTHLY YOUTUBE LIVE “CHATS WITH CHARLIE”

@TravelGov will begin hosting "Chats with Charlie" on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov) to discuss information provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin. The first chat is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2021 at 1:00 pm EST to discuss the April Visa Bulletin. Questions can be emailed to VisaBulletin@state.gov ahead of the event with "Chat with Charlie Question" in the subject line.

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Originally Posted by Wizoz2

Hi, My priority date Eb2, 28th April 2010 , Service Center : TSC is current as of the april 2021 visa bulletin. How has the trend been with RFEs from the TSC. I still do not see a lot of folks getting RFEs for older dates. So relieved and happy to be current 13 years after coming to the US.

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Congratulations your priority date is exactly a day after mine:)

Excellent date movement. Really good news. Now only if they get their act together and start issuing green cards in order of PDs (to an extent possible) instead of issuing them randomly. Good luck every one!

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

@TRAVELGOV BEGINS HOSTING MONTHLY YOUTUBE LIVE ?CHATS WITH CHARLIE?

@TravelGov will begin hosting "Chats with Charlie" on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov) to discuss information provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin. The first chat is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2021 at 1:00 pm EST to discuss the April Visa Bulletin. Questions can be emailed to VisaBulletin@state.gov ahead of the event with "Chat with Charlie Question" in the subject line.

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I was about to post this too. Certainly, Charlie appears to have been freed to, a la Dr. Fauci. Time to get those questions about inventory and date movement commensurate with spill-over answered. Gurus, please send the questions to Charlie. I think it's the first time people other than AILA lawyers get to ask questions.

Very good movement in the April VB. Especially now EB1 India is current and EB2I date is exactly the cut off date of 2012 (I mean most of them files in 2012), it is interesting to see how dates move forward. Any movement further is October 2020 filers for whom 485 processing might not be completed yet.
EB2I is catching up with EB3I pretty fast.

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

@TRAVELGOV BEGINS HOSTING MONTHLY YOUTUBE LIVE “CHATS WITH CHARLIE”

@TravelGov will begin hosting "Chats with Charlie" on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov) to discuss information provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin. The first chat is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2021 at 1:00 pm EST to discuss the April Visa Bulletin. Questions can be emailed to VisaBulletin@state.gov ahead of the event with "Chat with Charlie Question" in the subject line.

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Is this for real??? What a welcome change.

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Originally Posted by idliman

I am in TSC. I had opened a service request. It got closed immediately a)without saying that the file with AO and b) without an expected time frame or 45 or 60 days. It is like a no-reply, reply to close outside processing time referrals. Guess we have to wait for our time in the Sun.

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Did you try speaking to a live agent? My dates are current too, and I spoke to a live agent and insisted on speaking to a Level 2 officer. She created a service order for me and said that someone will call me back in the next 14 business days. So, keeping my hopes high!