EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by vizcard

tomorrow or Monday latest.

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Tomorrow for sure

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Calm before the storm.... fingers crossed for 01NOV2009 :-)

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the big question is whether it will be a category 1 or bigger storm or just a tropical storm

Do you think if the dates move forward they will send out RFE to more applicants or have they covered more than what they can take?

Big time..everything is just a guess..no standard rule.

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Originally Posted by geterdone

the big question is whether it will be a category 1 or bigger storm or just a tropical storm

Do you think if the dates move forward they will send out RFE to more applicants or have they covered more than what they can take?

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I don't think they have any need to send RFEs beyond 01NOV2009 - they have enough cases up to then to clear this year and leave enough behind that visas are not wasted.

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Originally Posted by geterdone

the big question is whether it will be a category 1 or bigger storm or just a tropical storm

Do you think if the dates move forward they will send out RFE to more applicants or have they covered more than what they can take?

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NSC has now started approving 2009. TSC is still stuck at Aug 2008 only. The way NSC is going, visas are going to run out....for TSC guys....any knows if TSC guys are back from vacation or not :(

who said they are in vacation..looks like they are in sleep

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Originally Posted by rka_72

NSC has now started approving 2009. TSC is still stuck at Aug 2008 only. The way NSC is going, visas are going to run out....for TSC guys....any knows if TSC guys are back from vacation or not :(

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User knoxtn on trackit says he got approved from TSC.He is first time filer and did FP on August 1st.It is concurrent filing(I140/485 together).Below is the link

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-track/page/36

A trackitt user with last date of the Aug bulletin got greened today..1/21/2009...what a lucky chap....that too from TSC...bhagwan jaane TSC ka logic kya hai....happy for the one who got greened but disgusted with TSC's approach

Maybe LIFO... definitely not FIFO

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Originally Posted by rka_72

A trackitt user with last date of the Aug bulletin got greened today..1/21/2009...what a lucky chap....that too from TSC...bhagwan jaane TSC ka logic kya hai....happy for the one who got greened but disgusted with TSC's approach

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Sorry for the not so relevant post. please feel free to delete if need be, but seeing the word logic, i couldn't resist myself. Reminded me of the hostel days back in India.

Viz,

Are we seeing approvals for folks whose status changed to IR after RFERR? Just curious to see if there is any obvious pattern visible from the recent 2014 EB2-I approvals since July 1st?

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Originally Posted by SONU77

Viz,

Are we seeing approvals for folks whose status changed to IR after RFERR? Just curious to see if there is any obvious pattern visible from the recent 2014 EB2-I approvals since July 1st?

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No idea. I certainly hope that's not the case as mine has stayed at RFERR.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

No idea. I certainly hope that's not the case as mine has stayed at RFERR.

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Mine has been stuck in RFERR but you've been current for more than a month. Hope you get an approval soon, a lot of approvals have been in July/Aug. Have you contacted your Senator or are you waiting a bit longer to see what happens. It would suck for 2008 filers like us to not get it in this cycle, but we have another 60-90 days

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Originally Posted by triplet

Mine has been stuck in RFERR but you've been current for more than a month. Hope you get an approval soon, a lot of approvals have been in July/Aug. Have you contacted your Senator or are you waiting a bit longer to see what happens. It would suck for 2008 filers like us to not get it in this cycle, but we have another 60-90 days

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I haven't contacted my Senator yet. My 60 calendar days ends Aug 12 and 60 business days end Aug 15. So I'll probably wait till the end of this week to raise hell. This week is brutal at work anyway so hopefully it'll take my mind off this.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Your case is really starting to worry me (not for your sake, but mine).

I am sure you will get the GC in a few days, but I am wondering what the fate of applications like mine will be.

I am hoping the approvals pick up fast. If they don't, we really don't have as much spillover as anticipated. I guess the September bulletin will clarify this. I am really hoping for a big movement.

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USCIS is on track to create PWMB version 2.0. The RFEs were issued randomly, the RFE review looks random and the approval has never been this random.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I am hoping the approvals pick up fast. If they don't, we really don't have as much spillover as anticipated. I guess the September bulletin will clarify this. I am really hoping for a big movement.

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Sorry if this is a newbie Q but how does movement in Sept bulletin indicate spillover #s?

And say there is not much further PD movement in Sept VB (I hope not for others sake), but how does that affect approval chances for those who are already current (up to at least PD Jan 22, 09)?

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

If the date stays put, that means they are tight on numbers. They can internally retrogress any time in September (this happened around mid September last year). They will issue GCs to folks in October but it remains to be seen the extent to which they will burn the numbers so early in the FY.

if the date moves OTOH, it means they have plentiful numbers, so folks like me who will only get a chance to send an RFE response by next week will have a very good chance to get greened.

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Thanks - makes sense.
I hope likewise, as I am 2 months behind you in terms of PD, but with an earlier RFER date.

It might turn out this arbitrary policy change regarding termination of medicals screwed us all by jacking up TSCs workload and hampering their (minimal) efficiency!

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

In my case, I believe sending AC21 papers last year was a bad idea. If I ever get some more info on why I didn't receive the mass RFE in May/June itself, I will post it here. However from trackitt, I could figure out a decent set of people who were without RFEs and this was one of the reasons.

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Sportsfan, believe it or not, it is all random. As per the personal data collection from friends and friends' friends', sending AC21 papers has no role in the chaos happening right now.

Did you analyze the RFE pattern with RD? Are you a Jan 2012 filer? My memory says, you or your family were in India that time(?)

I think cases might have been handed over to new/partially trained/half baked officers. As some one suggested DACA cases are in the fore front right now and looks like there is a meeting scheduled to discuss about those DACA cases with the new USCIS Director.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I agree there should be some semblance though. Vizcard has a straight EB2I case and has responded to the mass RFE back in June. He should have been greened by now. I am seriously wondering why the TSC is holding his case until now.

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There are a couple of others on Trackitt like Viz, current since July 1 and RFER near or past 60 days. Incidentally, someone with PD Jan 7, 2009, RD 3/10/12 and RFE sent date 7/10/14 (user name 'susarch') got approved at TSC!

And then when one compares TSC vs NSC, it gets all the more annoying.

I think for a process that even in its normal course takes a numbing 6 years + for approval, USCIS should be compelled to adopt a more transparent and accountable process so that just because TSC has workflow issues, its customers cannot be forced to wait an extra year or two!

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Originally Posted by helpful_leo

There are a couple of others on Trackitt like Viz, current since July 1 and RFER near or past 60 days. Incidentally, someone with PD Jan 7, 2009, RD 3/10/12 and RFE sent date 7/10/14 (user name 'susarch') got approved at TSC!

And then when one compares TSC vs NSC, it gets all the more annoying.

I think for a process that even in its normal course takes a numbing 6 years + for approval, USCIS should be compelled to adopt a more transparent and accountable process so that just because TSC has workflow issues, its customers cannot be forced to wait an extra year or two!

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Unfortunately, they are two reasons for this:

1. TSC has less staff vs NSC
2. Majority of the DACA cases fall under TSC jurisdiction because they are border states.
When they changed the law for DACA they(congress/president) obviously did not think of providing more resources to process DACA applications.

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Originally Posted by cursedguy

Unfortunately, they are two reasons for this:

1. TSC has less staff vs NSC
2. Majority of the DACA cases fall under TSC jurisdiction because they are border states.
When they changed the law for DACA they(congress/president) obviously did not think of providing more resources to process DACA applications.

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...... and Obama is thinking of giving EADs to illegals. Guess where most of them are :)

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Originally Posted by cursedguy

2. Majority of the DACA cases fall under TSC jurisdiction because they are border states.
When they changed the law for DACA they(congress/president) obviously did not think of providing more resources to process DACA applications.

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Not sure that is true.

I had a quick look at the number of DACA cases accepted by State and the Filing Lockbox address for that State.

For those that have more than 10k cases (about 80% of all cases) the numbers are:

Chicago -- 245,744
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 190,658

That doesn't suggest Texas are overburdened compared to Nebraska.

Edit:- Updated with figures for all States.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Not sure that is true.

I had a quick look at the number of DACA cases accepted by State and the Filing Lockbox address for that State.

For those that have more than 10k cases (about 80% of all cases) the numbers are:

Chicago -- 179,768
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 132,318

That doesn't suggest Texas are overburdened compared to Nebraska.

Fair Disclosure :- Phoenix only deals with Arizona and California so their complete total is shown above. The Chicago and Dallas numbers will be larger than shown (sharing another 124k between them) for all States, but I don't have the will do all 50 States. Ultimately, no lockbox is likely to have significantly more than any other.

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I may be wrong but border states have more requests..

http://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/imm...e-legalization

California 162,007 29%
Texas 88,106 16%
Illinois 30,982 6%
New York 28,414 5%
Florida 22,021 4%
Arizona 19,990 4%
North Carolina 19,883 4%
Georgia 17,356 3%
New Jersey 15,681 3%
Colorado 12,132 2%


Of the 553,197 applications approved to date, 427,653, or 77 percent, are originally from Mexico, with several other Latin American countries making up the remaining top 10 countries of origin of DACA approvals. California is home to the most DACA recipients, with 29 percent of the 553,197 approved. Texas, Illinois, New York and Florida follow with a combined 31 percent.

So I think TSC = 88106 + 22021 +19883+17356 (Texax, FL, NC, GA) = 147366
where NSC = 30982 + 12132 (IL, CO) = 43114

It seems TSC is processing more than 3 times compared to NSC but the Top processing center is California.

Let me know if something is wrong.. :)

EDIT: I see the difference now between our calculations, I think the lockbox service just sorts your application and forwards the application to the correct service center (they dont process it). I'm assuming they have to be processed at CSC, TSC, NSC or VSC right ?

Of course the border states have more requests, but that does not mean TSC handle the cases.

You need to look at the filing address to see where the cases are likely to be processed. Just because they are border states does not mean they are processed at TSC.

I have updated my previous post with the totals for each lockbox for all states and territories. I'll reproduce it here:

Chicago -- 245,744
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 190,658

Phoenix lockbox generally goes to NSC
Dallas lockbox generally goes to TSC
Chicago lockbox generally goes to Chicago (or wherever the FB cases are processed (not NSC or TSC)).

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Of course the border states have more requests, but that does not mean TSC handle the cases.

You need to look at the filing address to see where the cases are likely to be processed. Just because they are border states does not mean they are processed at TSC.

I have updated my previous post with the totals for each lockbox for all states and territories. I'll reproduce it here:

Chicago -- 245,744
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 190,658

Phoenix lockbox generally goes to NSC
Dallas lockbox generally goes to TSC
Chicago lockbox generally goes to Chicago (or wherever the FB cases are processed (not NSC or TSC)).

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DACA
Requests Filed
with USCIS :
USCIS will process all DACA requests, regardless of whether the individual
is in removal proceedings (unless the individual is in immigration detention
under the custody of ICE) or subject to a final order of removal. Depending
on when the order was issued, this could be an order of deportation, exclusion
or removal. A complete DACA package consists of concurrently filed Forms
I-821D, Consideration of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals and I-765,
Application for Employment Authorization, with the worksheet, Form I-
765WS. Forms I-821D and I-765 must be filed concurrently. DACA requests
will be adjudicated by all four Service Centers.

Somebody already used FOIA to find out how they process the applications. Page 18 - it says the applications are processes at all Four service centers but doesnt say what logic they use to send the applications to those service centers - So I rest my case :), I assumed it is by jurisdiction of the service centers.

http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-cont...se-Package.pdf

cursedguy,

I think I have already shown you the logic USCIS use to process requests.

Rather than overburden a single SC which happens to be geographically closer to the majority of requests, USCIS has designated where to file the request by State. This ensures a fairly even distribution of processing across the SCs based on their processing capacity.

If it doesn't, USCIS can reroute some cases to other SC for load balancing.

DACA is not a consideration for the slow pace of EB approvals at TSC.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

cursedguy,

I think I have already shown you the logic USCIS use to process requests.

Rather than overburden a single SC which happens to be geographically closer to the majority of requests, USCIS has designated where to file the request by State. This ensures a fairly even distribution of processing across the SCs.

If it doesn't, USCIS can reroute some cases to other SC for load balancing.

DACA is not a consideration for the slow pace of EB approvals at TSC.

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Spec, I agree with your analysis. The Texas Service Center is not overburdened when compared to others as of now based on the current available data. May I hint at upcoming Executive orders by the President. Last time USCIS marshaled and rejigged the workflow and adjudicators for DACA relief in record 6 weeks. I believe the same will be true for the upcoming relief whatever it may be. TSC is showing peculiar behavior for sure and it may be indicative of what the focus of change might be. This is pure conjecture - and not backed by any solid evidence on my part.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Spec, I agree with your analysis. The Texas Service Center is not overburdened when compared to others as of now based on the current available data. May I hint at upcoming Executive orders by the President. Last time USCIS marshaled and rejigged the workflow and adjudicators for DACA relief in record 6 weeks. I believe the same will be true for the upcoming relief whatever it may be. TSC is showing peculiar behavior for sure and it may be indicative of what the focus of change might be. This is pure conjecture - and not backed by any solid evidence on my part.

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kd,

I don't disagree that if EO expands the concept, then the situation might change.

Even then, I would say the timing of any such announcement is unlikely to affect FY2014 processing.

Like others, I am quite worried about the lack of approvals from TSC.

I was looking back at last year's figures. In the last 7 days in September 2013 before visas ran out, 263 (80%) of the 332 approvals on Trackitt for EB2-I were from TSC. That was more than a third of total TSC EB2-I approvals for August/September in a period of just 7 days (the last ones at that).

It's a bit sad to see the same pattern potentially repeating this year.

PS In the period Oct 1-8 2013, TSC Trackitt approvals were 98 compared to NSC's 28. The disparity suggests TSC approvals were less than they should have been in FY2014, had they been up to speed in the same way as NSC was.

Is there any way someone (like AILA) check why the Visa bulletin is not yet released? I wonder.

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Originally Posted by Feb262009

Is there any way someone (like AILA) check why the Visa bulletin is not yet released? I wonder.

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last year it was released on the 12th of August. So may be it will be out tomorrow.

FY-2013's September bulletin was released on August 12th of '13. They are well within their time window.

Thank you for your replies. I thought 10th is the cut-off. Looks like it is not.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Add to those puzzles the TSC pattern of approvals, things start getting murkier. There is a game being played that we do not quite understand and we can only hope will be brought to some successful closure.

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Haven't seen a more opportune place to employ Hanlon's Razor :)

Never attribute to malice (or strategy) that which is adequately explained by stupidity (or incompetence)!

Vizcard and I are both July filers at about 50 wish days from RFERR. No flipping updates.
Waiting for Sept VB to decide if I have to start being aggressive in following up.

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Vizcard and I are both July filers at about 50 wish days from RFERR. No flipping updates.
Waiting for Sept VB to decide if I have to start being aggressive in following up.

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Hi - Our PD is June 25th 2008 filed at TSC. I am worried that our GC's might not come thru this year with the way things are going. What can I do to followup? I read here about calling the senator or getting infopass..Can somebody provide information about ways to followup and process for it. Thanks so much.

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Originally Posted by Rachel

Hi - Our PD is June 25th 2008 filed at TSC. I am worried that our GC's might not come thru this year with the way things are going. What can I do to followup? I read here about calling the senator or getting infopass..Can somebody provide information about ways to followup and process for it. Thanks so much.

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Just scroll thru the last 2 pages in this thread.

I'm hoping the bulletin get releases and then I'll make my move accordingly. If the dates advance, then I'll wait for 69 days from RFERR. If not raise SR. At this point I'm mentally prepared that I won't get this year and honestly it makes me envious of the NSC approvals.

before that, the talk to L2.

Shame on USCIS if they can't give GC to each and every individual whose PD is till Jan 2009 and has replied to any RFE in time.

what happened to September visa bulletion? Are they delaying it to accurately forecast and come up with a proper date?

My worry is more they move it is lesser the chance for people who are stuck in TSC delay queue as NSC would start approving left and right come September 1st.

Hope TSC wakes up soon....:mad:

Guys,

September visa bulletin is out. EB2 India cut off date is at 1st May 09.

September bulletin is out. EB2I is 01May2009.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2014.html


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

INDIA Employment-based Second Preference: The use of potentially "otherwise unused" Employment numbers prescribed by Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) has allowed the India Employment Second preference cut-off date to advance very rapidly in recent months. Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

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Originally Posted by dorais

September bulletin is out. EB2I is 01May2009.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2014.html


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

INDIA Employment-based Second Preference: The use of potentially "otherwise unused" Employment numbers prescribed by Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) has allowed the India Employment Second preference cut-off date to advance very rapidly in recent months. Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

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Experts,

Is this 3 month plus PD movement considered good, and what does it indicate about visa number availability?

Also, do the above notes indicate EB2I will remain current at least up to Jan 09 PD till end of October (i.e. another 2.5 months)?