EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by go4green

Hi, Q, Spectator and other Gurus.

I would like to thank you for all the efforts you guys put to run this thread.

As per the predictions from the 1st page the total number of visas avaible to EB2I are 20k.
[9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 3K (ROW overage) = 20K visas]

But before Jan 2008 there are 8k pending in the I-485 inventory and lets say 4-5 Porting and 6K from original quota comes to (8+5+6). So it looks like only about 1K are remaining. There are 1147 cases pending inthe I-485 inventory for Jan 2008.
So will there be any furthur movement in Sep bulletin? Or is it too optimistic to expect any movement for this FY.
Also i t may depend on the porting numbers for sure.

My humble request to Q/Spec/Teddy/any Grurus... is if they can post their valuable response with the actual numbers, if available, used so far till Aug 2013, it would very helpful for people who have PD Jan/Feb 2008. (my PD is jan2nd)
Awaiting for a reply.

Thank you.

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go4green,

If we consider that EB2-I has been using at least the minimum numbers available to date this year, then by the end of August, EB2-I would have already used about 3k of the initial 3.2k available.

Using your high figure of 5k for porting cases to come into the Demand, then EB2-I could potentially have used a total of 3 (used already) + 8 (known demand to Jan 2008) + 5 (porting to come into demand) = 16k by the end of August.

In reality, not all cases will actually have been approved in August. If 2k remain unapproved (as an example), then actual approvals at the end of August would be 16 - 2 = 14k.

The 20k you mention appears to be for EB2-IC, so you would have to deduct up to 4k for use by EB2-C to arrive at a figure available for EB2-I alone. That would leave the total visas for EB2-I at 16-17k, leaving 2-3k possible in September based on your figures and my example figure of 2k unapproved.

Hi, Q and Spec
Thank you very much for your responses.

Q's Predictions mentioned that there will be 6k from the Quota ( out of 20k total EB2I spill over). But it looks like its 3.2K is the actuall quota. will this reduce the initial 20k to 17k?

Also will there be more yield from EB1 than the 5k initially expected for EB1 ? as per the invenrory which says 11,500k for EB1 WW
Sorry if i am doing some wrong math here and I am not trying to prove anyone wrong. We know its all predictions.

Q or Spectator, Please throw some light on those numbers.

I once again thank for your contributions for this forum which is an immense psychological relief for people in the same boat.

Thank you.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

go4green,

If we consider that EB2-I has been using at least the minimum numbers available to date this year, then by the end of August, EB2-I would have already used about 3k of the initial 3.2k available.

Using your high figure of 5k for porting cases to come into the Demand, then EB2-I could potentially have used a total of 3 (used already) + 8 (known demand to Jan 2008) + 5 (porting to come into demand) = 16k by the end of August.

In reality, not all cases will actually have been approved in August. If 2k remain unapproved (as an example), then actual approvals at the end of August would be 16 - 2 = 14k.

The 20k you mention appears to be for EB2-IC, so you would have to deduct up to 4k for use by EB2-C to arrive at a figure available for EB2-I alone. That would leave the total visas for EB2-I at 16-17k, leaving 2-3k possible in September based on your figures and my example figure of 2k unapproved.

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my friend - you are locked and loaded. UCSIS is telling that yours is a done deal and just waiting for visa. So 4-5 weeks from now you will be green. Send us some haldiram then!!!
1 - Yes preadjudicated.
2 - No need. They already did it for you.

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Originally Posted by isthereawayout

Gurus, please help. Mine is a EB3 to EB2 India porting case with a PD of 01/2005. When I emailed NSC to enquire if my case is preadjudicated or not, I got the following reply

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USCIS records indicate your applications are pending the availability of an employment based Visa. You are 2nd preference from India with a priority date of January 06, 2005. Currently there are Visas available for applicants with a priority date earlier than that of September 01, 2004 at this time. Your applications will be processed when a Visa based on your classification and preference becomes available.
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1. Can I assume my case is preadjudicated?
2. Do I need to send an interfiling letter?

Thanks

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G4G - 6K is between India and China. 20K is SOFAD that goes towards EB2IC backlog. Hope it explains. As per any micro predictions - I am sorry but it's difficult for me since I haven't tracked to that level of detail. But perhaps Spec or others can answer.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by go4green

Hi, Q and Spec
Thank you very much for your responses.

Q's Predictions mentioned that there will be 6k from the Quota ( out of 20k total EB2I spill over). But it looks like its 3.2K is the actuall quota. will this reduce the initial 20k to 17k?

Also will there be more yield from EB1 than the 5k initially expected for EB1 ? as per the invenrory which says 11,500k for EB1 WW
Sorry if i am doing some wrong math here and I am not trying to prove anyone wrong. We know its all predictions.

Q or Spectator, Please throw some light on those numbers.

I once again thank for your contributions for this forum which is an immense psychological relief for people in the same boat.

Thank you.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

G4G - 6K is between India and China. 20K is SOFAD that goes towards EB2IC backlog. Hope it explains. As per any micro predictions - I am sorry but it's difficult for me since I haven't tracked to that level of detail. But perhaps Spec or others can answer.

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How many EB2-I will be there from Jan to Aug 2008?

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Originally Posted by eb2visa

How many EB2-I will be there from Jan to Aug 2008?

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Looking at the demand data for July, it would be approx 8 x 1500 = 12000 not including porting.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

There are a total of 15-16K pending in 2008. Since the density is slightly lower in the earlier half (as many of them were approved), I would say about 8-10K.

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I asked the density question way back and turns out that its still fairly flat across the months. Q or Spec or someone had actually posted some data supporting that. So you could say 9-12K as the range - not including porting

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Originally Posted by axialtilt

Hi indiani, please post the more info from the presentation when you have it ready. The first prediction of Jan 1, 2008 did come true. I wonder what other info was given in the conference about possible further movement.

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@indiani, any update on the content of the recording?

Hi, Q.

Can we say EB2I will get ~17k visas because EB2C is at Aug 2008 and EB2I will get all the SOFAD.

Can any one share the information on how much EB1 and EB4 will yield taking into account the recent I-485 inventory. Will EB4 yield anything at all?
Just want to analyse and see if there will be any furthur movement in Sep.

I would be very thankful if Veni or Tedd or others' provide any numbers which are highly apreciated.

Thank you.

Yes. That's fair.

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Originally Posted by go4green

Hi, Q.

Can we say EB2I will get ~17k visas because EB2C is at Aug 2008 and EB2I will get all the SOFAD.

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Originally Posted by axialtilt

@indiani, any update on the content of the recording?

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listening to it now, if anything worthwhile i will post the info

here is some I thought worthwhile to post:
EB2-I for this year no other news other than jan 2008 for next bulletin.( in the future EB2I will not receive anywhere close to 20K like in the past )
EB5 this yr 9K ( next yr expected to be 10K and might retrogess)
EB2-I pattern of movement in 2014 similar to this year.
no signficant FB SO in 2014 ( this year considered lucky for india according to presenters :D)
lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

I skipped most of it as it boring so will try to listen to entirety soon and will post anything important,
the whole thing is for dummies ( useful for someone who doesn't understand the process )

sorry that I didnt find anything to predict for sept 2013 from the recording but next yr in the absense of cir and also without FB SO and increased EB5, things arent rosy
with CIR ( if final version includes recapture ) everyone will be C.

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Originally Posted by indiani

lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

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Exactly what I feared indiani. Thank you for posting.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.

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Kanmani-

What's latest chatter there about the first part of the prediction from Chinese forums(EB2I catching up with EB2C)? Later part of prediction seem almost certain now.

charlie was in mexico, the presenters were really dummies as they hardly ever crunched numbers and they were delivering news from charlie who was on vacation in mexico.

when they clearly mentioned jan 2008, I dont know why only Oh cared to mention and not murthy. ( Oh should get credit for it )
I am afraid of copyright violations so cant post the entire content online

indiani,

Thank you very much for sharing. It is much appreciated.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by indiani

here is some I thought worthwhile to post:
EB2-I for this year no other news other than jan 2008 for next bulletin.( in the future EB2I will not receive anywhere close to 20K like in the past )
EB5 this yr 9K ( next yr expected to be 10K and might retrogess)
EB2-I pattern of movement in 2014 similar to this year.
no signficant FB SO in 2014 ( this year considered lucky for india according to presenters :D)
lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

I skipped most of it as it boring so will try to listen to entirety soon and will post anything important,
the whole thing is for dummies ( useful for someone who doesn't understand the process )

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Looks no further movement for EB2I in Sep bulletin. God knows when will the dates move forward.

Thanks Indiani, it was indeed nice of you to share the essence. The bullet points you summarized, confirms Spec/Q's thought process shared in the forum. I understand there was some mention of how porting cases are double counted( both in EB3 and EB2). Is there any new learning of how porting cases are handled when PD is not current. Also any mention of why EB3I cases are dropping where PD is not current.?

Even though less spill over will be available for India going forward, the good news is India will solely consume all the spill over for next 2-3 years. In the past, India had to share it with China. So, is it fair to say that the net effect will be India getting same amount of spill over as previous years?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Yes. That's fair.

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Q,

I remember few yr's back you had some source in Visa office..Is it possible to get some info for Sep. bulletin please?

Would appreciate your reply.

Thanks

i think what everyone feared to be most conservative might have been taking place ( only speculation ) :

heavy EB5 demand
heavy EB2WW usage

IMHO I dont think there will be like 6 months movement but rather 2-4 months at the best ( this is only one man's opinion and I dont want people to get nervous about it ) .

jan 2008 in aug bulletin was mentioned for the question: how far EB2I will move for 2013?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by indiani

here is some I thought worthwhile to post:
EB2-I for this year no other news other than jan 2008 for next bulletin.( in the future EB2I will not receive anywhere close to 20K like in the past )
EB5 this yr 9K ( next yr expected to be 10K and might retrogess)
EB2-I pattern of movement in 2014 similar to this year.
no signficant FB SO in 2014 ( this year considered lucky for india according to presenters :D)
lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

I skipped most of it as it boring so will try to listen to entirety soon and will post anything important,
the whole thing is for dummies ( useful for someone who doesn't understand the process )

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Thanks for sharing! This memo probably has something to do with the EB-5 retrogression forecast - USCIS Policy Memorandum May 2013

From the looks of it I think Q's and Spec's calculations are spot on and also Matt's calculations in other forum where he updated his calculation sheet we might expect movement to be anywhere from Apr 2008- July 2008.

I am hoping it is July so that lot of folks can get GC's and folks like me with Apr 4th date would be able to atleast file I-485 as I missed boat last time..I think I am more of hit/miss scenario from all your discussions.

guru's do you think this is fair assessment well with USCIS anything can happen but atleast with what is available and what Indiani has posted is this a decent assumption..

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Thanks Indiani, it was indeed nice of you to share the essence. The bullet points you summarized, confirms Spec/Q's thought process shared in the forum. I understand there was some mention of how porting cases are double counted( both in EB3 and EB2). Is there any new learning of how porting cases are handled when PD is not current. Also any mention of why EB3I cases are dropping where PD is not current.?

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you are correct that EB2 and 2 are double counted until the case is approved ( the they will drop out of EB3), (its mentioned in PDF files that comes with audio.)
"IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs." ( from AILA prsentation )
I hope you can interpret the above and get answer to you question