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I'm curious to know this as well. If I have to guess, it's SOFAD.
On a side note: let's not discuss pros/cons of any other site on this thread. There's a complete thread for that purpose. This has nothing to do with my view of that org :) Just as a courtesy to IMDeng who painfully cleaned up this thread not long ago
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Originally Posted by redsox2009
it is an open forum.. if you have to say something make sure you can atleast give it a direction...high or low.... just saying its not what it is in reality will not help people doing all the hardwork of calculating. Anyways lets wait and watch wat he has to say.
Sun I don’t mean that quite literally though but here is how it would be. IMHO 75-25 is a very realistic. It is also backed by the data tonyromo posted for Jun 2008. This number will keep going higher but 100% is a bit extreme.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I think there is a general consensus that family factor is 2.125 instead of 2.05.
I like to use .8 as the destruction factor though many believe that it should be lower i.e. more destruction.
So essentially in theory what you are asking is 2.125 * .8 = 1.7. This is almost extreme :)
Iam still saying that based on the factor of 1, 28.5K is the figure they have and in the next bulletin there will be 2-4 months of movement. Probably both of us are in agreement that factor of 1 is realistic and the best way to go forward.
On another note let’s not worry on postings elsewhere the ones here are the best, we keep hearing things and nothing ever comes out. Talking after the fact is also meaningless because everyone knows by then.
Guys ..someone with PD JUly 7 2008 got NVC fee receipt notice today
Teddy thank you.
Do you believe the ratio of eb2:eb3 over of the course of years has changed upto 90:10 or 85:15 ?
Trackitt data shows significant eb3 I active profiles and numbers of eb2 vs eb3 has not changed greatly . Wht do u think?
cool. It at least guarantees that dates will move that far come october.
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Originally Posted by wantgcnow
wow ...are u serious ?Quote:
Originally Posted by wantgcnow
Yes someone named FedupwithGC in ** posted it just nowQuote:
Originally Posted by vchirakala
It indicates in another 6 months he will be current
Posted by FedUpwithGC (23) 3 minutes ago
I got my NVC fee receipt today as I opted for CP in my I140. So hoping that the PD will get close to July 2008 in next few bulletins.
Kanmani I think even in the worst case scenario it will be 80-20 anything beyond that is extreme.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Now assuming that overall factor is 1 let us try to figure out what demand destruction is baked in.
1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62. So basically 38% demand destruction is already baked in this calculation. CP is always extra I believe this demand destruction percentage is fairly balanced you do not expect it to be more than 38%, conservative demand destruction would be 20%.
I agree - lets stay with multiple of 1 and the corresponding implied demand destruction. 38% is surely way too much already - can't be any higher.
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
What is interesting is not that we have confirmed report of a NVC Fee Receipt for July-2008 - what is interesting is that it happened today. This shows that DoS is moving towards expanding the horizon of cases they consider in this FY beyond June-2008, which was the last confirmed fee receipt date. If they had an indication that they will get enough demand until June-2008 then they would have held off extending the horizon until the FY was through.
Our realistic end point for the current move forward should at least be extended until Aug 1 2008 from the previous accepted stop point of July 1 2008.
This may not mean dates will move here right now itself, isn't it said that NVC fee bills sent 6-9 months in advance of anticipated date being current. Of course anything is possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by vchirakala
Yes. Last year when people were talking about November 2007 folks receiving NVC notice, I did not think it was true :) Usually this fee is good for 12 months, so they don't usually send false notices, unless they think/estimate dates would move that far in next 12 months.
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Originally Posted by vchirakala
I agree.
I personally think that they are very sure that an immigration bill will pass before then or have a better handle on the numbers now.
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Originally Posted by imdeng
Thanks Venkat. We now have independent confirmation of July-2008 Fee Receipt. It is a positive sign. We are past the middle of Nov - perhaps they have a sense of how many applications they received since the start of Nov and are underwhelmed by the number - wishful thinking??
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Originally Posted by venkat
Thanks for information!
Quote:
Originally Posted by venkat
My PD is July 7th 2008 and I received my NVC fee receipt today.
Thanks for letting us know. We have been following your posts elsewhere. Ron also confirmed the same today. Hope you get current soon.
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Originally Posted by fedupwithgc
regarding NVC Fee
Hi Gurus,
Does this mean we shall expect the dates to move to say Aug 1 , 2008 in this FY 2012 (or) in FY 2013?
Also does this mean the number of applications they received so far is less than they expected?
My personal opinion is that the NVC news is positive and we should extend our expectations for this FY from 1-July-08 to 1-Aug-08. It would make sense if it is because USCIS received less than expected number of applications in first half of Nov - but I doubt there is that efficient communication going on between DoS and USCIS.
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Originally Posted by Feb262009
IMHO, it's too early to call. I don't know if we have data to even explain the movement until July 1st 2008? It makes logical sense though :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feb262009
Guys,
My priority date is may08 and I haven't received any receipt
Can you please explain what is NVC receipt and who gets it (lawyer, company or applicant) and when.
What if a receipt is lost?