EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Aurora

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MATT2012

Yes, EB2I,
"USCIS would have approved around 14.5 K EB 2 I cases between August and September."

"around 16k cases needs to be completed between August and September( I took 4k carried forward)"

---

Matt,

Answer is in your explanation. Last year they processed 14.5K in Aug and Sep. This year they have around 16K (1.5K more) for same period. Why do you think they cannot do it this year when they did last year. True that TSC is slow, who knows NSC would have consumed all visa's released by CO for July.

Regards!

---

The current pace of approvals will only complete between 6k and 7k. I am also hoping, they are currently running a marathon and starting next week they will run 100m. :) i know I had the answer within my answer. Was just throwing some thoughts, so would atleast learn a little more...

Somehow, I think the Immigration crisis or DACA approvals are slowing down the approvals from TSC. Another user who contacted TSC through senator was told that a TSC staff (some of them ) was at an offsite training facility for the past two weeks until 7/28. It will be a miracle for CO to complete this year without major screw ups.

Just came across this news article about a week ago. Talks about a single case but the bigger point is that there is a significant potential for fraud and abuse in EB5 category which USCIS may be overlooking.

Very interesting read. Please move it to the other forum if not appropriate.

http://fortune.com/2014/07/24/immigr...visa-for-sale/

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Just came across this news article about a week ago. Talks about a single case but the bigger point is that there is a significant potential for fraud and abuse in EB5 category which USCIS may be overlooking.

Very interesting read. Please move it to the other forum if not appropriate.

http://fortune.com/2014/07/24/immigr...visa-for-sale/

---

I think this story is quite unfair to EB5 program which fundamentally is a good program and a very stringent one for that matter.

The fraud was outside the program in the way this company cheated potential investors.

The author did a poor or a malacious job of using the story about victims of a fraud into a story that makes it sound like something is wrong with EB5 program.

p.s. - But the fraud story is just a wow!! Few months back a 'Gentleman' advised me to start bringing people from India to US to give birth to "anchor babies". I totally declined and told him flat that that may be illegal. Whether illegal or not - I am not going to do that.

OFLC have updated the Data with FY2014 Q3 Figures.

PERM, H-2A, H-2B, LCA and Prevailing Wage Data is available.

I will update the PERM section of FACTS & DATA with the official data (it already includes the unofficial DOL LCR data for Q3) as I have time to do so.

UPDATE :- The figures have now been updated.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think this story is quite unfair to EB5 program which fundamentally is a good program and a very stringent one for that matter.

The fraud was outside the program in the way this company cheated potential investors.

The author did a poor or a malacious job of using the story about victims of a fraud into a story that makes it sound like something is wrong with EB5 program.

p.s. - But the fraud story is just a wow!! Few months back a 'Gentleman' advised me to start bringing people from India to US to give birth to "anchor babies". I totally declined and told him flat that that may be illegal. Whether illegal or not - I am not going to do that.

---

Q, I agree. I don't think that investors can be blamed for investing money through EB5 program in to this sham project. But the bigger point is that this program just like any other program can be open to abuse and people can commit fraud as well. May be not investors (applicants) themselves but the people who are luring them into investing their money. I am happy that requirements in EB5 are quite stringent and not everyone can qualify for this program. I just feel that USCIS should be extra careful (and I have no evidence that they are not already) when they see applications from EB5 investors who have invested in these kinds of businesses, to prevent the investors from losing their money and to catch the real culprits milking the system. I have nothing against the EB5 program or the people who become permanent residents through that but this was something interesting that I came across so I decided to post it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Q, I agree. I don't think that investors can be blamed for investing money through EB5 program in to this sham project. But the bigger point is that this program just like any other program can be open to abuse and people can commit fraud as well. May be not investors (applicants) themselves but the people who are luring them into investing their money. I am happy that requirements in EB5 are quite stringent and not everyone can qualify for this program. I just feel that USCIS should be extra careful (and I have no evidence that they are not already) when they see applications from EB5 investors who have invested in these kinds of businesses, to prevent the investors from losing their money and to catch the real culprits milking the system. I have nothing against the EB5 program or the people who become permanent residents through that but this was something interesting that I came across so I decided to post it.

---

Jonty Thanks. Indeed there are people out there who will try to benefit from immigrants in a shady manner. No doubt about that. I truly found that story very amusing.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I have taken an infopass tomorrow. Exactly the same situation as you. Will touch base.

---

sportsfan33, What was the result of the Infopass appointment?

Is it just me or is the next bulletin going to be a cliffhanger?
Dates can be anywhere from March 09 to Nov 09 or even Jan 2010 if demand from EB2I does not show up at CO doorstep.
Coming soon to a LED screen near you Aug 8 or latest Aug 11!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gc_dec_2008

sportsfan33, What was the result of the Infopass appointment?

---

Here's a rookie question: I filed I-485 for the first time in July 2014 on July 2. Does my application show up in the pending inventory that was calculated on July 21? The jump for new pending cases seems to be only 139 or so compared to April inventory for PD before July 2008. So, there are very few new porting applications who have never filed I-485 before?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by civilengineer

Here's a rookie question: I filed I-485 for the first time in July 2014 on July 2. Does my application show up in the pending inventory that was calculated on July 21? The jump for new pending cases seems to be only 139 or so compared to April inventory for PD before July 2008. So, there are very few new porting applications who have never filed I-485 before?

---

civilengineer,

Others may disagree, but I seriously doubt it.

I've noticed the Inventory consistently seems to be several weeks out of date compared to the stated date and actually reflects a much earlier date in reality. The net change from the April Inventory is only +47 cases and the change for dates not current is -87. The change for dates that were current in the July VB is just 134 (+330 - 196).

As well as very few additions, the Inventory does not reflect the number of approvals (seen mainly in 2007 and 2008) that occurred in the the first 21 days of July.

Of course, it is possible the were 1,584 additions and 1,450 approvals (or any other combination) within dates that were current to make up the 134 change observed, but there is no way to tell.

Here is that paragraph. This news if true is really really bad. It dashes the hopes of all the upto Oct 09 PD folks. It may just be a rehash of the Ohm article which we saw earlier.
It seems that there might be some really adverse factors affecting the availability of Visa #s and CO could go with a very conservative approach and keep the dates at Jan 09.


""Consistent with DOS projections, the August Visa Bulletin indicates that the cut-off date for foreign nationals in the EB-2 category from India will move forward, by nearly five months, to January 22, 2009—continuing the rapid advancement that began earlier this month when the cut-off date leapt forward more than three years and nine months to September 1, 2008 from the previous date of November 15, 2004. The aggressive advancement of the India EB-2 cut-off date was due to the availability of unused visa numbers in the EB-1 (Employment-Based, first preference) and EB-2 worldwide categories that have “trickled down” to the EB-2 India quota. Continued forward movement in the EB-2 India category was initially envisioned for the remainder of the fiscal year, with DOS projecting that, by September 2014, the cut-off date could advance to an early summer 2009 date. It is, however, no longer anticipated that EB-2 India will advance further. Moreover, retrogression of the cut-off date in this category within the next several months is a possibility as a result of an expected increase in demand.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Someone posted this on trackitt:""

http://www.lexology.com/library/deta...8-d7bcce9c998b

It's published on July 31st. No forward movement? Is this really going to happen? I don't like it.

---

Hi,

What is the first acknowledgement that we get after filing the I-485. Is there some sort of receipt notice like we get for most of the applications ? Would that receipt have the name of the applicant ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Jagan,

In general they do match. Getting a new I-94 number do not hurt the process anyway. Use the latest one.

---

thanks for the reply kanmani

There is always a receipt notice for all I-485 filings - it is I-797C I think. It has all the relevant information including the applicant name I believe.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jagan01

Hi,

What is the first acknowledgement that we get after filing the I-485. Is there some sort of receipt notice like we get for most of the applications ? Would that receipt have the name of the applicant ?

---

I don't think there is anything to worry as yet. This seems like boilerplate lawyerspeak based on already available information - not any new information.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Someone posted this on trackitt:

http://www.lexology.com/library/deta...8-d7bcce9c998b

It's published on July 31st. No forward movement? Is this really going to happen? I don't like it.

---

imdeng,

Thanks for your response.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imdeng

There is always a receipt notice for all I-485 filings - it is I-797C I think. It has all the relevant information including the applicant name I believe.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jagan01

Hi,

What is the first acknowledgement that we get after filing the I-485. Is there some sort of receipt notice like we get for most of the applications ? Would that receipt have the name of the applicant ?

---

Yes you get a Receipt Notice with your Name, Receipt Number and A Number

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

civilengineer,

Others may disagree, but I seriously doubt it.

I've noticed the Inventory consistently seems to be several weeks out of date compared to the stated date and actually reflects a much earlier date in reality. The net change from the April Inventory is only +47 cases and the change for dates not current is -87. The change for dates that were current in the July VB is just 134 (+330 - 196).

As well as very few additions, the Inventory does not reflect the number of approvals (seen mainly in 2007 and 2008) that occurred in the the first 21 days of July.

Of course, it is possible the were 1,584 additions and 1,450 approvals (or any other combination) within dates that were current to make up the 134 change observed, but there is no way to tell.

---

I love it when the inventory for specific month increases even though that month/category has not been current for a while. I guess some of it is porting (although porting with a PD of 2009 seems suspect I guess it's possible). But I like to think an I-485 was found in some random pile at the SC and they're like... oh... here add one.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Someone posted this on trackitt:

http://www.lexology.com/library/deta...8-d7bcce9c998b

It's published on July 31st. No forward movement? Is this really going to happen? I don't like it.

---

That one might be outdated. Read this one.....

http://imlaw.biz/news

July 16, 2014
Update on Priority Dates and Immigrant Visa Demand

In July 2014, Charlie Oppenheim of the U.S. Department of State’s (DOS) Visa Office (VO) spoke to AILA members regarding his impressions for the Visa Bulletin at this time (note these observations are subject to change based on actual usage or new developments). The VO expects the family-based 2A category to advance in September, possibly as far as late fall 2012. The India EB-2 priority date will retrogress in FY2015 and could occur as early as November. In the meantime, continued advancement is expected for EB-2 India in FY2014. The VO expects retrogression for EB-5 China in FY2015, possibly as early as June 2015 and no later than August 2015.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

What worried me in the original post was this:

"Continued forward movement in the EB-2 India category was initially envisioned for the remainder of the fiscal year, with DOS projecting that, by September 2014, the cut-off date could advance to an early summer 2009 date. It is, however, no longer anticipated that EB-2 India will advance further."

It could simply be a hash of the 2 Fragoman articles, or it could be some ominous insider info available to them.

Now for the other article, all it says is this:

"In the meantime, continued advancement is expected for EB-2 India in FY2014."

- Despite the article coming out on July 16th, it is still basing its prediction on the CO's meeting with AILA, and the Fragoman update came "after that meeting". Fragoman update date is 8th July.
- Continued forward movement happened in August, did it not? Does "continued" mean a movement in September too? I don't know.

Also, TSC has started approving visas finally, so we can expect a bunch of approvals by August 10th. This pattern of approvals from July end coupled with a carefully calculated VB date (22nd January instead of some generic 1st of some random month) makes me think of unthinkable.

There is a parallel to this in 2011. That's when EB2I dates made massive jump, but they "froze" in September before advancing again. The reason was a "sudden" EB1 demand that appeared out of "nowhere" (but we know better, don't we). I am sincerely hoping this won't happen again this year. Things are bad as it is for us 2008 folks (who don't have RFEs). I would be really angry if I was a 2009er and had responded to my RFE in July and the date doesn't move in September.

Let's hope for the best. I really hope they have a lot of numbers to push the date as far as they can.

---

Did you read my new link?

The VO expects the family-based 2A category to advance in September, possibly as far as late fall 2012. The India EB-2 priority date will retrogress in FY2015 and could occur as early as November. "In the meantime, continued advancement is expected for EB-2 India in FY2014".

I needed to know the timelines for getting the following approvals after filing the I485/I765/I131 applications. Your experience regarding the timelines will be helpful.
- EAD ? (I see its 3 months for NSC on the USCIS website)
- Advance Parole ? (I see its 3 months for NSC on the USCIS website)

EAD/AP Combo card has a 90 day max timeline - irrespective of the service center.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jagan01

I needed to know the timelines for getting the following approvals after filing the I485/I765/I131 applications. Your experience regarding the timelines will be helpful.
- EAD ? (I see its 3 months for NSC on the USCIS website)
- Advance Parole ? (I see its 3 months for NSC on the USCIS website)

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imdeng

EAD/AP Combo card has a 90 day max timeline - irrespective of the service center.

---

imdeng,

thanks for the info. Any documentation / links which confirm that the max window is 90 days ?

How soon did you get yours ?

We were in a scary situation in 2013 - our EAD had only about 60 days left and we had missed to file for renewal. We filed - and whether USCIS prioritizes cases that are about to expire or not, our EADs were renewed in about 40 days. One of those cases where USCIS came through brilliantly. At that time I had looked through all sorts of documentation including some shared in this forum and it all indicated a 90 day max timeline.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jagan01

imdeng,

thanks for the info. Any documentation / links which confirm that the max window is 90 days ?

How soon did you get yours ?

---

I think the max window is 120 days. We had a terrible scare last year where we filed 70ish days before and we did not get it until a week or two before it expired. Check the website

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RMS_V13

I think the max window is 120 days. We had a terrible scare last year where we filed 70ish days before and we did not get it until a week or two before it expired. Check the website

---

U can apply no more than 120 days before expiration but it's max 90 days to approve the application.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

U can apply no more than 120 days before expiration but it's max 90 days to approve the application.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imdeng

We were in a scary situation in 2013 - our EAD had only about 60 days left and we had missed to file for renewal. We filed - and whether USCIS prioritizes cases that are about to expire or not, our EADs were renewed in about 40 days. One of those cases where USCIS came through brilliantly. At that time I had looked through all sorts of documentation including some shared in this forum and it all indicated a 90 day max timeline.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RMS_V13

I think the max window is 120 days. We had a terrible scare last year where we filed 70ish days before and we did not get it until a week or two before it expired. Check the website

---

thanks for the response. Appreciate all the help.

As per trackitt, TSC has total of 3 approvals only out of 19....Any solid reason why there is so much gap?
This way NSC is going to consume all the visas and people at TSC will need to wait more may be until next year.

Spec mentioned that last year too TSC started slow but ended up with 60% of approvals. So - give them time. They have gotten faster than last month - I am sure they will catch up.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rka_72

As per trackitt, TSC has total of 3 approvals only out of 19....Any solid reason why there is so much gap?
This way NSC is going to consume all the visas and people at TSC will need to wait more may be until next year.

---

Are the approvals happening based on the PD or on the basis of RD (or RD for RFER) for those who are current? The trend seems to be that, but seen some approvals for Dec'2008 already and at random too.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rka_72

Are the approvals happening based on the PD or on the basis of RD (or RD for RFER) for those who are current? The trend seems to be that, but seen some approvals for Dec'2008 already and at random too.

---

I was looking for that too. Comparing to my particular situation there have been ppl with PDs before mine (8/20) for the most part (I'm talking TSC only) and RFERD seem to be around my date (6/12) +/- 2 weeks OR no RFEs at all.

Calm before the storm.... fingers crossed for 01NOV2009 :-)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imdeng

Calm before the storm.... fingers crossed for 01NOV2009 :-)

---

Mera number kab aayega? :cool:

I know they are not a great indicator.

NSC

I-485 -- Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status -- Employment-based adjustment applications -- 4 Months

TSC

I-485 -- Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status -- Employment-based adjustment applications -- February 25, 2014 (4 Months 5 Days)

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplay.do

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imdeng

Calm before the storm.... fingers crossed for 01NOV2009 :-)

---

imdeng,
Now we know why you removed the Optimistic and Pessimistic dates from your signature ;) - LOL. Good positive thinking - I am with my fingers crossed as well.
Goodluck and hope we all get greened soon.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pundit Arjun

imdeng,
Now we know why you removed the Optimistic and Pessimistic dates from your signature ;) - LOL. Good positive thinking - I am with my fingers crossed as well.
Goodluck and hope we all get greened soon.

---

I'm keeping my fingers crossed too ........and i have an Aug 2008 PD :P

I'm in the final round of interviews with 3 companies - 2 of them would be tricky to explain in an AC21 scenario.

Does the bulletin come out next week?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pundit Arjun

imdeng,
Now we know why you removed the Optimistic and Pessimistic dates from your signature ;) - LOL. Good positive thinking - I am with my fingers crossed as well.
Goodluck and hope we all get greened soon.

---

Tomorrow, Most likely.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by aquatican

Does the bulletin come out next week?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by cursedguy

Tomorrow, Most likely.

---

tomorrow or Monday latest.