EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Teddy thank you.

You and Spec are correct . I myself had little hesitation to update the trackitt profile some years back. I later realised upon I-140 approval , this updation would help others in the long run . So fellow trackitters please update your profile, if you really believe in give and take policy. It really works.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Kanmani the approach is fine. Unfortunately the way Trackitt works is that people will put in their details at various stages a) Right after the VB b) As soon as they file c) Waiting for EAD / AP d) Waiting for GC e) on the day of approval. So it takes some time before all the entries come in so Trackitt is more reliable for approvals compare simply because the numbers are in by that time. Now Trackitt ratios keep changing as well with time this year looks like EB1C folks are tracking in really large numbers so every country + category can have a different ratio. Well since you are comparing Nov & Dec filers these things should be smoothened out. In all my Trackitt calculations I adjust the lower or higher numbers using some kind of factoring but in this situation it’s really hard so your approach of direct compare is fine. Let’s keep monitoring. For forward movement to continue in the right earnest we should start to see more actual approvals for Oct filers now since 3+ months have elapsed for the early filed cases, we have not seen real traction on this front. Also I hope they will publish the demand data this time and ideally it should give us some guidance.

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Originally Posted by pdfeb09

I don't think so ... AFAIK .. from the discussions on this forums, 2 years worth of inventory is counted as "How many visas can CO allocate in 2 yrs to a particular category (EB2 ) considering the SOFAD". This number is then translated to how many people can get in and that decides the cut off date. So 2 years worth of Visas may not translate into 2 years worth of movement.

Also, you are counting 2yrs from the last VB cut off .. that is not how it works.. it is counted using the Demand Data which shows where the oldest of the priority date lies that has filed the I485 but has not received the green card yet. We currently do not have the latest Demand Data and that is part of the confusion.

I think, according to all Gurus the 2 yrs buffer has already been taken in .. any movement now is solely at CO's discretion until the demand/inventory is worked through to a sufficiently low level... hope that helps.

Gurus, let me know if I have misunderstood the process.

Thanks.

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2 Years inventory with SOFAD means possible 50k. 50k inventory not reached yet.per Spec's earlier posts by 15-Jun-2009 it reaches 50k.

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

2 Years inventory with SOFAD means possible 50k. 50k inventory not reached yet.per Spec's earlier posts by 15-Jun-2009 it reaches 50k.

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You are probably right.. I am not aware of the actual current numbers. I was just trying to explain the process as I understood it.

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Originally Posted by pdfeb09

You are probably right.. I am not aware of the actual current numbers. I was just trying to explain the process as I understood it.

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Also to be noted that 50K is assumption based on previous years numbers. The actual number could be much different.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I think this brings up an important point.

Historically, for Primary cases to Actual Approvals, the % for EB2-I has been :

FY2009 - 7.63%
FY2010 - 6.72%
FY2011 - 5.38% (educated guess)

At least for FY2009 and FY2010 the backlog was fairly steady and well established.

Within FY2011 the % for individual months appeared to vary wildly (from 2% to over 10%). Towards the end of FY2011 it was about 4.5%.

What we have no idea of is the new % of Trackitt people adding their cases and the constancy between months.

For that reason I have reported Trackitt numbers and not tried to assign real numbers to them.

If I used my estimate for FY2011 with the new applications, I would get :

October VB - 100 cases = 1,860
November VB - 240 cases = 4,464

Only October looks to be complete as of yet and later months seem too incomplete to speculate, as new applications are being added every day.

For an OR=0.8 I would expect figures of 1,627 & 4,979 respectively.

The problem is the Trackitt % now (post backlog) may be quite different to the historical past. A new flood of enthusiasm may have led to a greater % of cases being added (in which case the actual figures would be lower), or Trackitt may be less relevant now and the % has declined. As previously mentioned, the % may vary greatly between individual months.

The overall average can only be determined a year from now, when DOS publish the FY2012 figures.

The upcoming USCIS Inventory may help somewhat to calibrate, but, in truth, it won't contain enough data and comes a bit early.

My 2c anyway.

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Spec/Teddy,

Thanks for detailed replies to Kanmani's original post..
For argument sake even if we think that there another 50% increase in trackitt % and overall filings the number Nov VB hovers around 7K. (much less than 10K we discussed here)?

Demand data is out

http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html



http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Demand is still very low in DD.

I feel big movement's chances are not at all harmed by this.

It has no row for demand prior to January 1, 2007, so 2006 is pretty much clear.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

You guys are lightning fast wow..

We still don't have enough pre-adjucated applications for EB2IC which was expected. Next month's DD should give us a better picture.

One point, if the 485s which get adjudicated for EB2IC, keep getting satisfied by QSP, they will never appear in DD.

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Originally Posted by devi_pd

You guys are lightning fast wow..

We still don't have enough pre-adjucated applications for EB2IC which was expected. Next month's DD should give us a better picture.

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I still think that the numbers are ridiculous.

Guys, I think chances of VB getting released today are pretty high and almost 100% on Monday.

My money is on today, around 12 to 1 afternoon PST.

The low demand means that USCIS has not Pre-adjucated applications from August 2007 and beyond right ? If not the low numbers are not justified to me unless somebody clarifies.

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Originally Posted by asankaran

But still it's a shocker!!

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sure man, I mean, its good thing that DD keeps low, it means we are keeping on getting satisfied by QSP and/or they don't have enough ripe intake.

numbers are too good to be true. EB2 total demand 258, EB3 Total demand upto 2003 15,685.
Time to make EB2 current. right ? Maybe CO is trying to save EB3 ROW from the after effects of HR 3012.

Could someone please explain what this dancing is all about? Demand data released in Nov 2011 for Dec. 2011 bulletin also had low demand and back then the dates moved 4.5 months. So why is everybody excited now?

The current demand data is a snapshot as of Jan 5, 2012. So essentially, there is a chance that they are approving 100 cases a day for EB2-I. So if CO extrapolates this with the expected pipeline then there is little chance of a large movement.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Could someone please explain what this dancing is all about? Demand data released in Nov 2011 for Dec. 2011 bulletin also had low demand and back then the dates moved 4.5 months. So why is everybody excited now?

The current demand data is a snapshot as of Jan 5, 2012. So essentially, there is a chance that they are approving 100 cases a day for EB2-I. So if CO extrapolates this with the expected pipeline then there is little chance of a large movement.

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kd, as I said:

"I feel big movement's chances are not at all harmed by this."

The demand data shows very low EB2 I/C documentarily qualified cases and it has been created yesterday which is just the third working day of the month. This increases positive sentiment & the likelihood of further movement in the bulletin. Good luck to everyone. On another note some cases will never figure in either the inventory or demand data as they are getting approved.

ThatIsAll,

No problem if it is in Marathi. You need to get an exact translation done and then get this translation certified.


Thanks,

Chances of VB being released today did increase significantly with DD release.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Guys, I think chances of VB getting released today are pretty high and almost 100% on Monday.

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One question (silly one), what are the dates on the left column of each table in demand data, can't be priority dates.
EB2-I shows 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and 7 cases between 2010 and 2012. Is this the I 485 filing date, but that would mean everyone except for the 7 cases who filed in last two years has been assigned a visa number.
Sorry just getting confused, its Friday :)

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

One point, if the 485s which get adjudicated for EB2IC, keep getting satisfied by QSP, they will never appear in DD.

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What's happening....?
Can some-one press the RED button :)
It's mind boggling!!
Gali gali mein shore hai CO hamara neta hai :))

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec/Teddy,

Thanks for detailed replies to Kanmani's original post..
For argument sake even if we think that there another 50% increase in trackitt % and overall filings the number Nov VB hovers around 7K. (much less than 10K we discussed here)?

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Sun the overall consensus is that Oct filers will be 2K.
Nov filing represents movement from 15th Jul to 01 Nov which is 3.5 months.
I would assume most people post 15th Jul have a very high likelihood of being PWMB.
Let’s stick to our perm approximation of 2200 PM.
With OR of 1 it means 2200 * 3.5 * 1 = 7700
With OR of 0.8 it means 2200 * 3.5 * .8 = 6160.
With a OR of 1 Oct + Nov will get closer to 10K while with OR of 0.8 it will get closer to only 8K.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Where is the demand from the November filers? None of them have received GCs yet, and it is just surprising that in the last 2 months, they could not even convert a couple of thousand cases into demand? Maybe I am misinterpreting something.

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Yes, this is surprising indeed and those that get converted into demand, get approved immediately and won't show up in the demand data.

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

One question (silly one), what are the dates on the left column of each table in demand data, can't be priority dates.
EB2-I shows 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and 7 cases between 2010 and 2012. Is this the I 485 filing date, but that would mean everyone except for the 7 cases who filed in last two years has been assigned a visa number.
Sorry just getting confused, its Friday :)

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AFAIK, it does refer to the Priority Dates .... .. USCIS has in the past acknowledged and fixed such glitches .... Anything that shows the dates that were never current needs to be ignored at this time... so the 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and the 7 cases between 2010 and 2012 need to be ignored..

Thanks. So its them not me.

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Originally Posted by pdfeb09

AFAIK, it does refer to the Priority Dates .... .. USCIS has in the past acknowledged and fixed such glitches .... Anything that shows the dates that were never current needs to be ignored at this time... so the 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and the 7 cases between 2010 and 2012 need to be ignored..

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Why are some members saying demand data is not correct?

I think they have demand only from CP case at this point, for after-Oct filers, EAD/AP doesn't mean the case is preadjudicated and ready to be approved

Huge movement similar to last bulletin is most likely

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I haven't read anywhere that anyone from Nov filers received GCs yet. Do we know of such cases? On the other hand, the USCIS is just taking its own sweet time, but it seems hard to believe. 2 months is a long time, and I was expecting to see a number in 4 digits at least.

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This data has only pre-adjudicated and ready to approve applications only so mostly November filers( infact many october filers) might not be ready to approve yet, if that is what you are thinking about. And also from discussion in various forums, there is little possiblity that data provided by them is not correct.

So this is the DD for Feb VB. I have a copy of the DD for Nov VB. I know for sure that there was no DD for Jan VB. Does anyone remember whether DD was issued for Dec VB? If yes, then does anyone has a copy?

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Originally Posted by imdeng

So this is the DD for Feb VB. I have a copy of the DD for Nov VB. I know for sure that there was no DD for Jan VB. Does anyone remember whether DD was issued for Dec VB? If yes, then does anyone has a copy?

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Veni maintains all records of DD in:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-Cut-Off-Dates

EB3I seems to be losing people from the queue rapidly (comparatively speaking, compared to 2.8K/year pace). We would expect the DD to come down by about 250 per month. Now, lets compare the DD for Nov 2011 and Feb 2012 (3 months duration)
Year-----Difference
2003-----700
2004-----900
2005-----1200
2006-----1375
2007-----1600
2011----1700

DD going down by 1700 in 3 months is quite significant. Effect of porting and demand destruction perhaps. Whatever may be the reason, it is good to see that happening. Whatever makes a dent in the 50K+ EB3I inventory is good news from a long term perspective.

When will this start affecting EB2IC in the future?

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Originally Posted by imdeng

EB3 seems to be losing people from the queue rapidly (comparatively speaking, compared to 2.8K/year pace). We would expect the DD to come down by about 250 per month. Now, lets compare the DD for Nov 2011 and Feb 2012 (3 months duration)
Year-----Difference
2003-----700
2004-----900
2005-----1200
2006-----1375
2007-----1600
2011-----1700

DD going down by 1700 in 3 months is quite significant. Effect of porting and demand destruction perhaps. Whatever may be the reason, it is good to see that happening. Whatever makes a dent in the 50K+ EB3 inventory is good news from a long term perspective.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Where is the demand from the November filers? None of them have received GCs yet, and it is just surprising that in the last 2 months, they could not even convert a couple of thousand cases into demand? Maybe I am misinterpreting something.

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Demand is only seen by DOS from USCIS when they request a visa number in the process of approving the I-485.

If the PD is Current it is used immediately and Demand does not go up. Since the latest possible dates for EB2-IC are still Current, no new case approvals will impact the Demand Data figures.

A reduction in pre-adjudicated cases will lower the Demand data figure.

A Consular Processing case where the visa has been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place will increase the Demand figure.

For new cases, it is going to take 4-6 months for USCIS to get to the stage of being able to approve them. Even for October filers that means the end of January at the earliest, except for a few outliers. Hoping for 4 month adjudication may well be optimistic.

With all that taken into account, the latest DD figures look exactly as I would expect.

They will only start to rise significantly after dates retrogress and USCIS ask for a visa which is not immediately available, or if visa numbers under QSP run out.

There is no effect on EB2I except as some kind of indication of the volume of porting. If we assume that all the demand reduction except for 2002 PD is for porting, then that gives us an estimate of porting as 1000 (1700 - 700) for the three months. Extrapolated: 4000 porting for the full year. The actual number will be lower since a good number of post-2002PD demand reduction can be due to factors like parallel perms.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

When will this start affecting EB2IC in the future?

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Guys I am glad to see the movement at the same time I do feel surprised and confused on why would the dates move so fast.Is it going to be the fact that the Chinese nationals backlog is slimmer than Indian and so we are being showered by blessings ?
Also what is the whole funda of Receive Date ? Why is RD so important did it overrides the Priority date ?

Are we all going to be in limbo (sitting and waiting for EAD like 2007 fiasco) ,Does this also mean its a fiasco in parts :)
Any knowledge on the last PD that got approved the most recent one ?

Demand is low in the demand data as expected and predicted by Gurus here. I think demand data for next month and the month after will give us a clear picture. Also I-485 inventory once released will make it even clearer. In my opinion, this month's VB movement will be at CO's discretion and if the demand destruction is not huge than retrogression is imminent from next VB. If the demand destruction is moderate than the dates may stall for the rest of the FY2012 starting from next few months. Only if the demand destruction is of mammoth size, than the dates will continue to move forward. I hope the third scenario is true. :)

Hello,
Can any one please direct me about walk-in centers for finger printing in NJ?
I know there is a center in Newark. But not sure if it is walk-in or it just allows scheduled appointments.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by sp2008

Hello,
Can any one please direct me about walk-in centers for finger printing in NJ?
I know there is a center in Newark. But not sure if it is walk-in or it just allows scheduled appointments.

Thanks

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Enter your ZipCode and will give you your nearest ASC
https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...ffice_type=ASC

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Originally Posted by Desperate8

Guys I am glad to see the movement at the same time I do feel surprised and confused on why would the dates move so fast.Is it going to be the fact that the Chinese nationals backlog is slimmer than Indian and so we are being showered by blessings ?
Also what is the whole funda of Receive Date ? Why is RD so important did it overrides the Priority date ?

Are we all going to be in limbo (sitting and waiting for EAD like 2007 fiasco) ,Does this also mean its a fiasco in parts :)
Any knowledge on the last PD that got approved the most recent one ?

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Desperate8,
USCIS will process applications based on RD.

Once the application(s) are documentarily qualified (processing complete) and the Cut-off dates are not retrogressed for that PD, then USCIS will request for Immigrant VISA from DOS.

Please refer to Spec's Post#3611 for your other question.

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Originally Posted by username

Enter your ZipCode and will give you your nearest ASC
https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...ffice_type=ASC

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Thank you for quick response. I saw that link. The info does not say if it is a walk-in or not. (none on the website say so). So I am waiting for ppl who might have recently did biometrics in NJ area via walk-in process.

You can walk in to any ASC. Once you walk in it depends on the mood of the ASC manager, if he/she is in a good mood you will get in, if not you may have to come back after you reschedule your appointment.

Most experiences I have seen have been positive over the holiday season.

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Originally Posted by sp2008

Thank you for quick response. I saw that link. The info does not say if it is a walk-in or not. (none on the website say so). So I am waiting for ppl who might have recently did biometrics in NJ area via walk-in process.

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