EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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07-11-2011, 09:25 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stemcell

When i compare June 2011 demand data to August demand data i see that EB2C came down from 9250 to 4125 and EB2I came down from 20,350 to 6525.
It looks like DOS/USCIS is making sure India and China are on the same page.
Is there a rule to keep retrogressed countries at around the same priority date?

Stemcell,

The spare visas are being allocated under Section 202(a)(5) to both China and India.

The visas have to be allocated on a strictly PD basis, so the Cut Off Date has to be the same for both Countries.

CO explained in the May VB why China and India had different Cut Off Dates despite Section 202(a)(5). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5424.html (see Section D)

In May it was in operation for India alone, but China had not used their 7% allocation and could have a later PD.

From June, both Countries have been using visas under Section 202(a)(5) and therefore must share the same Cut Off Date.

CO mentioned in the June VB http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5452.html (section D) that "The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference."
07-11-2011, 09:26 AM
28thJune2007

Latest demand data says "Demand Data Used in the Determination of the August 2011 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates"
Does this mean they have already made the decision for Aug VB ? May be we can see the bulletin today.
07-11-2011, 09:30 AM
Stemcell

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Stemcell,

The spare visas are being allocated under Section 202(a)(5) to both China and India.

The visas have to be allocated on a strictly PD basis, so the Cut Off Date has to be the same for both Countries.

CO explained in the May VB why China and India had different Cut Off Dates despite Section 202(a)(5). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5424.html (see Section D)

In May it was in operation for India alone, but China had not used their 7% allocation and could have a later PD.

From June, both Countries have been using visas under Section 202(a)(5) and therefore must share the same Cut Off Date.

CO mentioned in the June VB http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5452.html (section D) that "The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference."

Thank you Spec
Again its very complicated for me...i am fine as long as the numbers of India are going down :)
07-11-2011, 09:35 AM
Stemcell

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Yes there is a rule when Spillover is issued to retrogessed countries , Visas should be alloted in PD ascending order wise . Spillover Visas are not split equally. For example when 10,000 nos to be shared between I and C , Visas cannot be issued like 5000+5000. Instead they combine both I and C demand together and start alloting Visas according to earlier PD wise. During this allocation , when 10000 visas finished up , the very first I and C applicant who was not alloted Visa will have the same PD.

Thank you Kanmani.
Always learning something new.
07-11-2011, 09:55 AM
TeddyKoochu

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. The demand data confirms that USCIS will be able to or has been able to attach cap numbers to all cases current in July.
By a conservative calculation only 8K SOFAD is left while demand data indicates 10.5 preadjudicated cases are left. Now for the upcoming bulletin I believe that they should go full blast and allocate the 6-8K numbers bringing the dates to the range 01-JUN-2007 (6K) to 01-JUL-2007.

Now coming to new intake though this is completely in the hypothetical domain, the NVC fee receipts should be the guideline. By those standards it should be end of Q1 20008 which is 03/31/2008, I would say anyone with a PD in 2007 is virtually sure of being part of the next intake. I believe that this intake must happen soon but when is entirely hypothetical. Most people believe that it will be either in Aug - Sep 2011 if not it will get delayed to May 2012. Lets wait and watch.
All the best to everyone. If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007 for Aug 2011.
07-11-2011, 09:59 AM
MeraNoAayega

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Data as fo Aug 10,2011....

WOW that is impressive.... Looks like USCIS approve and send out lots of GC's in the last 2 months...
07-11-2011, 10:00 AM
sunny4gc

Is there a chance that my PD 12/07 will be current by AUG bulletin?
07-11-2011, 10:01 AM
leo4ever

Demand data is known i-485 cases

Hi,

Demand data will have data of those who already filed I-485. So far for EB2 dates have reached until Jul 2007 (Mamimum; when current). There are so many people who applied for I-140 but haven't filed for 485 yet as their dates are not current. Once the know demand data (10K+) we have now is used they might move dates for 6 months to an year so that they can get move i-485 and thus they showup on demand data file again and USCIS can work on it.

To check how many people are waiting after Jul 2007, use PERM data

-Leo

Quote:

Originally Posted by RMS_V13

I am familiar but not so much with the whole demand data/Visa bullettin etc. I tried to go back as much as I could to catch up but have some questions..

I also have the same question. What does this number 10000 odd mean? How do they know how many ppl waitin in line after 2007 ?
07-11-2011, 10:18 AM
neospeed

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

A few quick observations:
1. The demand data doesnt include cases upto Mar 8 2007, implies the cases were applied visa numbers as soon as they became current. So expect the same for whoever next becomes current.
2. The demand for EB2 is ~10K ... so its very much possible that the dates could move much ahead of that in Sep.
3. Also based on demand for EB2 our predictions are on track and it seems we all are doing kumbaya as far as Jun 2007 is concerned for Aug 2007.
4. Kudos to Spec for pointing out the EB3 reduction. In reality the conversion is more .... but i think its just not reflected in the data.
5. No news from source yet. Lets wait a few more hours.

Agree here. Could be upto first week of Jul 2007. But that's a minor difference.

Thanks Q for your analysis. Do they usually release VB same day as demand data? how was the historical pattern?
07-11-2011, 10:20 AM
soggadu

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....
07-11-2011, 10:22 AM
qesehmk

I haven't kept track. But my memory says usually next day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by neospeed

Thanks Q for your analysis. Do they usually release VB same day as demand data? how was the historical pattern?
07-11-2011, 10:23 AM
qesehmk

Amen! Tathaastu!

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....
07-11-2011, 10:24 AM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

AMEN.

God bless!
07-11-2011, 10:25 AM
RMS_V13

Hello:

Sorry to digress..What if my PD is current and I am in India and cannot travel immediately? Can I apply for processing from the US embassy in India? What are my options?

Know this is not a legal advice :)

Update : Me is not the principal applicant
07-11-2011, 10:25 AM
imdeng

Following is the reduction in EB3I demand from the last demand data two months back. The important figure is the last column - incremental reduction.

Year--July-10'2011--May-09'2011--Reduction--Incremental Reduction
2002--20--25--5--0
2003--6400--6900--500--495
2004--18325--19000--675--175
2005--32150--33050--900--225
2006--41125--42125--1000--100
2007--52125--53250--1125--125

If we consider any reduction in years 2004-2007 as a result of EB3->2 upgrades, then we get a total of (175+225+100+125) = 625 porting cases in two months. Now, it is possible that some of the 2003 reduction is porting as well - but that number is unlikely to be large.

This indicates that porting continues to be within reasonable limits.
07-11-2011, 10:26 AM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Amen! Tathaastu!

Thank you sir ji.... my PD is OCT 22 2007... have been waiting... i know my wait is not much in comparison...
07-11-2011, 10:29 AM
mpurna77

Very impressive analysis and calculations guys, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate and analytical. your predictions are very accurate with some basis.

I think you should be in Economic Reform Team to protect this country and world from this economic conditions.:-)

Great Job guys..Thank you.
07-11-2011, 10:29 AM
qesehmk

Very good. Thanks imdeng.

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

Following is the reduction in EB3I demand from the last demand data two months back. The important figure is the last column - incremental reduction.

Year--July-10'2011--May-09'2011--Reduction--Incremental Reduction
2002--20--25--5--0
2003--6400--6900--500--495
2004--18325--19000--675--125
2005--32150--33050--900--225
2006--41125--42125--1000--100
2007--52125--53250--1125--125

If we consider any reduction in years 2004-2007 as a result of EB3->2 upgrades, then we get a total of (125+225+100+125) = 575 porting cases in two months. Now, it is possible that some of the 2003 reduction is porting as well - but that number is unlikely to be large.

This indicates that porting continues to be within reasonable limits.

You need to come back if you want to file AOS. That's what my wife had to do when we filed ours in 2007.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Hello:

Sorry to digress..What if my PD is current and I am in India and cannot travel immediately? Can I apply for processing from the US embassy in India? What are my options?

Know this is not a legal advice :)

Update : Me is not the principal applicant
07-11-2011, 10:31 AM
belmontboy

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Thank you sir ji.... my PD is OCT 22 2007... have been waiting... i know my wait is not much in comparison...

My PD is 8 days later than your's :)
07-11-2011, 10:31 AM
goforgreen

Thanks Q,Teddy,Spec and Veni

Thanks Q, Teddy and Spec on your thoughts. With 12/2007 priority date I'll be eagerly waiting for the bulletin and your analysis ( or guidance?? like what companies give for the next quarter and year). Thanks a lot for your time and efforts in making predictions and calculations based on numbers and not shots in the dark or wishful thinking.

Q and Teddy -> I'm following your predictions from Immigration Voice site. Thanks a lot for your time, efforts and passion towards this. Also thanks a lot to Spectator and Veni for joining in Q and Teddy's efforts and making this site a very positive one where everyone respects one another. I used to visit other sites for info and news but now I've stopped visiting those alltogether. This is because here I dont have to go through pages of fights, bad behaviour, irrelevent posts to get to useful information that gives some hope.

Hats off to you guys, VDLRao was predictions 1.0 who started predictions with what ever data was available. You guys are Predictions 2.0 with numbers based intelligent predictions and calculations :)
07-11-2011, 10:35 AM
qblogfan

Two thumbs up to Predictions 2.0!

Quote:

Originally Posted by goforgreen

Thanks Q, Teddy and Spec on your thoughts. With 12/2007 priority date I'll be eagerly waiting for the bulletin and your analysis ( or guidance?? like what companies give for the next quarter and year). Thanks a lot for your time and efforts in making predictions and calculations based on numbers and not shots in the dark or wishful thinking.

Q and Teddy -> I'm following your predictions from Immigration Voice site. Thanks a lot for your time, efforts and passion towards this. Also thanks a lot to Spectator and Veni for joining in Q and Teddy's efforts and making this site a very positive one where everyone respects one another. I used to visit other sites for info and news but now I've stopped visiting those alltogether. This is because here I dont have to go through pages of fights, bad behaviour, irrelevent posts to get to useful information that gives some hope.

Hats off to you guys, VDLRao was predictions 1.0 who started predictions with what ever data was available. You guys are Predictions 2.0 with numbers based intelligent predictions and calculations :)
07-11-2011, 10:36 AM
ragx08

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

AMEN!!!

Stay cool man! You should get there pretty soon!
07-11-2011, 10:37 AM
neospeed

Hmm, trackitt down (:, looks like everyone bombarding it with requests.
07-11-2011, 10:38 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

soggadu,

In the great scheme of things 2.5k is nothing (if that were the figure).

Often there is a slow down in approvals in Q4 for EB1 and EB2-ROW, possibly EB5, so available SOFAD can rise.

As I've said before, the numbers appear close enough that DOS can now probably do what they want to do, regardless of the exact numbers left.

I hope so anyway!
07-11-2011, 10:39 AM
mpurna77

Its not down...its crawling with requests:-)
07-11-2011, 10:50 AM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

soggadu,

In the great scheme of things 2.5k is nothing (if that were the figure).

Often there is a slow down in approvals in Q4 for EB1 and EB2-ROW, possibly EB5, so available SOFAD can rise.

As I've said before, the numbers appear close enough that DOS can now probably do what they want to do, regardless of the exact numbers left.

I hope so anyway!

I agree...
07-11-2011, 10:50 AM
kolugc

Q,S,V,TD....

Been following this forum for a month or so now... Every day I am learning new things... Excellent work guys...

From what ever I understood from this forum, this is what I have figured...

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even June 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

or

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even Apr 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: Apr 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)
May 2012: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

Is this a good assumption? I mean realistic, All this is based on what I read here as well as thinking that NVC is a good indication to predict as T mentioned above.
07-11-2011, 10:55 AM
pch053

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Spec,
I guess these pending numbers are probably from March'07 - Aug'07; they are saying that there are no pending numbers from 2006. So, I think they are considering almost all pending I485 up to March'07 have been approved, right? If our assumption of remaining spillovers is more towards 9,600 then PDs up to somewhere July'07 should get approval by the end of this year with a slim possibility of all remaining I485s might get approval. So the calculations are right on target so far.

P.S.: I think Q already answered the above question. Sorry, I missed Q's answer before posting!
07-11-2011, 10:55 AM
qesehmk

A bit different ...

Aug 2011 - Jun 2007
Sep 2011 - Late 2007 upto Late 2008
Oct 2011 - Late 2007 upto Late 2008
Nov 2011 - Late 2007 upto Late 2008 & bounce back to Mid 2007
Dec 2011 - Mid 2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolugc

Q,S,V,TD....

Been following this forum for a month or so now... Every day I am learning new things... Excellent work guys...

From what ever I understood from this forum, this is what I have figured...

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even June 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

or

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even Apr 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: Apr 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)
May 2012: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

Is this a good assumption? I mean realistic, All this is based on what I read here as well as thinking that NVC is a good indication to predict as T mentioned above.
07-11-2011, 11:04 AM
iamdeb

Gurus,

Pardon my understanding, but I thought PD has to be current once July 2007 is reached for EB2 as there is no data ahead of that. So once they consume the 10K numbers for completing 2007 shouldn't the EB2 PD become current briefly till they get in the fresh numbers?
07-11-2011, 11:11 AM
zenmaster

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

Gurus,

Pardon my understanding, but I thought PD has to be current once July 2007 is reached for EB2 as there is no data ahead of that. So once they consume the 10K numbers for completing 2007 shouldn't the EB2 PD become current briefly till they get in the fresh numbers?

Not really. Check this Link - Para2.

VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into
monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported
to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The
determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables,
including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of
Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is
done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order
of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.
07-11-2011, 11:16 AM
kd2008

Q, Spec, V, T Please check out this:

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/mark_07142011.html

Notice a "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act" It does not even have a number. I wonder how it showed up on the mark-up agenda.

Markups are a big deal. That means they are ready to take a vote on the committee and send it from the committee to the house floor for vote.

Of course, Senate Democrats will never vote on any thing that does not include CIR. So its going to be dead on arrival in Senate.

Its really interesting how the legislative process works in the U.S.
07-11-2011, 11:20 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

Gurus,

Pardon my understanding, but I thought PD has to be current once July 2007 is reached for EB2 as there is no data ahead of that. So once they consume the 10K numbers for completing 2007 shouldn't the EB2 PD become current briefly till they get in the fresh numbers?

Deb,

There is already demand into 2008, as the Demand Data already shows and probably more to come, as the recent cases that received fee requests submit Packet 3 and become documentarily qualified.

If DOS estimate available visas as less than the AOS cases to July/August 2007 + documentarily qualified CP cases to sometime in 2008, then there is no need to make the Category Current, since there would be at least one case that couldn't be approved with a PD in 2008. That would become the Cut Off Date.

I actually think ensuring there was some Demand in 2008 was something of a master stroke by DOS and pretty much ensures EB2 does not have to be made Current.

Certainly, the August Demand Data figures set that scenario up quite nicely, since it appears that at best, the available visas might just be enough to clear the current backlog plus a few.

I could be wrong, but it is a viable scenario.
07-11-2011, 11:20 AM
iamdeb

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravi.shah

Not really. Check this Link - Para2.

VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into
monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported
to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The
determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables,
including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of
Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is
done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order
of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.

As Spec pointed earlier to me
totals of documentarily qualified applicants (EB2) which have been reported
to VO is 125 plus the ones who got the NVC receipt recently(which I believe wont be much). the estimates of future number use and return rates is an unknown quantity so I guess there isn't any parameter to advance the date.
experts please share your views.

Thanks,

Deb
07-11-2011, 11:29 AM
gc_usa

Do you have how many visas still left in EB2India/china ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Deb,

There is already demand into 2008, as the Demand Data already shows and probably more to come, as the recent cases that received fee requests submit Packet 3 and become documentarily qualified.

If DOS estimate available visas as less than the AOS cases to July/August 2007 + documentarily qualified CP cases to sometime in 2008, then there is no need to make the Category Current, since there would be at least one case that couldn't be approved with a PD in 2008. That would become the Cut Off Date.

I actually think ensuring there was some Demand in 2008 was something of a master stroke by DOS and pretty much ensures EB2 does not have to be made Current.

Certainly, the August Demand Data figures set that scenario up quite nicely, since it appears that at best, the available visas might just be enough to clear the current backlog plus a few.

I could be wrong, but it is a viable scenario.

If we know how many left than we can say if it will be current this month or next ? Do you guys have any numbers ?
07-11-2011, 11:44 AM
qesehmk

Spec

On a second thought on Deb's point .... when they reach Sep 2011 or Oct 2011, if you look at EB2 as a category, if the date is still Aug 2007, the max numbers they will have in USCIS pipeline (not DOS pipeline) will be ROW (10K or less) and EB2IC (6K or less).

Which means DoS numbers will be even less... which would demand making teh entire category current because 16K is less than 40K annual quota. The only exception is if they look at 16K and compare to quarterly quota 10K.

If its the former then category should become current in Oct 2007. If USCISwants more gradual movement then they need to move it much farther in Sep then in Oct and in Nov and then stagnate. I am wondering even a swift forward and backward movement will continue to starve DOS pipeline since 485 takes some time to process.

Just a few thoughts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Deb,

There is already demand into 2008, as the Demand Data already shows and probably more to come, as the recent cases that received fee requests submit Packet 3 and become documentarily qualified.

If DOS estimate available visas as less than the AOS cases to July/August 2007 + documentarily qualified CP cases to sometime in 2008, then there is no need to make the Category Current, since there would be at least one case that couldn't be approved with a PD in 2008. That would become the Cut Off Date.

I actually think ensuring there was some Demand in 2008 was something of a master stroke by DOS and pretty much ensures EB2 does not have to be made Current.

Certainly, the August Demand Data figures set that scenario up quite nicely, since it appears that at best, the available visas might just be enough to clear the current backlog plus a few.

I could be wrong, but it is a viable scenario.
07-11-2011, 11:45 AM
orangeca

Don't know whether it is already posted: Fresh Demand Data

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
07-11-2011, 11:52 AM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by orangeca

Don't know whether it is already posted: Fresh Demand Data

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

It is already being discussed in last few pages. But nevertheless thanks for posting.

I know if it was some other website forums, people would pounce upon you for this, I have been there :)
07-11-2011, 11:53 AM
pch053

This is probably a very basic question: for cumulative demand for EB2-ROW, it says 125 prior to Jan'11. But in the June data, we have seen a significant # of EB2-ROW pending cases from 2010 and 2011 (~10K - 11K). Does this mean, all (or most) of those EB2-ROW pending cases have been assigned a visa number, just like we are saying that all (or most) or EB2-I/C cases up to 7th March'07 have been allocated a visa number.

Thanks!
07-11-2011, 12:00 PM
qblogfan

Those ROW EB2 are not ready for approval, so they are not counted as demand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pch053

This is probably a very basic question: for cumulative demand for EB2-ROW, it says 125 prior to Jan'11. But in the June data, we have seen a significant # of EB2-ROW pending cases from 2010 and 2011 (~10K - 11K). Does this mean, all (or most) of those EB2-ROW pending cases have been assigned a visa number, just like we are saying that all (or most) or EB2-I/C cases up to 7th March'07 have been allocated a visa number.

Thanks!

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