I know a lot of people who have 2009 PD and have not received any RFE. Is that normal? What should they do, if anything?
Printable View
I know a lot of people who have 2009 PD and have not received any RFE. Is that normal? What should they do, if anything?
I know a few people in TSC who did not get RFE's. I am one of them. On the other hand I know a few people in NSC who "all" got their RFE's (even with Mar 2010 PD). I think the NSC issued RFEs for everyone for whatever reason it may be. If anyone has alternative theories, it would be interesting to hear.Quote:
Originally Posted by Desi Dude
Wow. My RD at TSC for I765 renewal was 10AUG18. I am still waiting (approx 60 days). It looks like the decision is upto the officer handling your case.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Coming back to the predictions, what is the potential movement forward? With USCIS accepting FD after 2 years, we have to see if they do it again for November. Will DHS move forward the FD again?
How is FAD going to move?
hi everyone - hope someone can help: I am current in October (PD 3/25/09; RD 9/15/14). How long should I wait before submitting a service request for outside processing times? What do folks generally do when PD is current but there are no updates from USCIS? I read about contacting senator etc - when is this usually done? I understand that the last mile is the hardest :)
EB3I Filing Date should jump into 2010. No movement for EB2I. FAD, may not move much as usual that date jumps towards the middle and end of the FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
That might be interesting if the filing dates for Eb3 are pushed till May 2010. Also USCIS has to respect it. I don't see much EB3 2008 GC's coming through yet, so FAD movement may not in cards here. EB2 similar movement like this months bulletin, as we can see the demand shown by the latest pd.Quote:
Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
No movement in any category!Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Nov bulletin is outQuote:
Originally Posted by EB2/eb3
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2018.html
All it means is the immediate need for November can be handled by the demand from the current list. From EB2 perspective the numbers are already on the inventory, so no surprises there. For EB3 lack of data is unnerving, but I still hope for some good movement from 2nd quarter.
A few thoughts; There is not going to be movement every month, especially for EB2 but for once every quarter and even then all movement is going to be range bound i.e., there is specific trend over long term but short term forward movement is all art no science. However, 11 out 12 months the dates would be within certain trendlines i.e., EB2 100 days per year and EB3 250-days per year. Even if there is monthly movement it will be at below pace.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Go Forward Clip per Month: 1 week for EB2 Filing, 2 weeks for EB2 Final while keeping a 30-day lag then when lag is complete filing jumps by 4-6 weeks, final keeps moving 2 weeks at a time.
EB3 pace looks a bit better but its wild wild west territory swings due to unreliable demand view, especially with Filing: EB3 Filing will be at a clip of 6 weeks per month with jump only once every 3-months and a lag of 8 weeks with Final.
1. EB3 Filing: Its likely that the next few months will continue to remain at the current filing date of Oct 09 to accumulate demand though there is trend of forward movement over a longer period in a stair step manner.
2. EB3 Final: Final date movement has will move ahead at a 2 week per month, so once every 3-months, we are looking at 6-week jumps.
3. EB2 - Filing: Don't bother
4. EB2 - Final : 2-weeks per month
So Oct 2019
EB2 FA/AF will be in Oct 15 2009/Nov15 2009 with a 6-week jumps projected around Jan, Apr & June 2019
EB3 looks hyperbolic right now but contingent on rev. porting EB3 FA/AF will be Oct 30 2009/Jan 22 2010 with big jump in June 2019.
Attachment 1395
Hello Everybody!
I've been a regular reader of this blog for the past few months and I really appreciate the wealth of information that is shared.
After the visa bulletin that was released for Nov 2018 and checking the inventory which is around 30K overall based out of July 2018 inventory report, I was assuming that CO would have to move the dates for this visa bulletin. But alas! the dates stay the same! What could be the reason behind the dates not getting moved.
Very realistic prediction, thank youQuote:
Originally Posted by bloddy1
1. EB2-I likely received ~3000 GC last year (Oct 2017 - Sept 2018). So it is fair for CO to continue with that assumption. He does not need to move dates as there are a few years' worth of inventory for him. So it will only advance couple of months a year for the next couple of years.Quote:
After the visa bulletin that was released for Nov 2018 and checking the inventory which is around 30K overall based out of July 2018 inventory report, I was assuming that CO would have to move the dates for this visa bulletin. But alas! the dates stay the same! What could be the reason behind the dates not getting moved.
2. EB3-I likely received ~6500 GC last year. Inventory till Aug 2007 has been exhausted. Current filing date is Oct 2009. CO likely thinks that there are 6500 people in EB3-I (and he also likely thinks that some people in EB2-I will downgrade) between Sept 2007 and Oct 2009. He will likely give it a couple of months before moving things.
Looking at the available Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory charts for the last few years:
MM/Year Grand Totals
01/2015 117,466
04/2015 124,521
07/2015 120,902
10/2015 120,127
01/2016 124,092
04/2016 117,731
10/2016 120,573
01/2017 130,900
04/2017 128,873
08/2017 144,223
10/2017 133,502
01/2018 103,675
04/2018 48,190
07/2018 29,471
If 140,000 are the available numbers given for employment based. Is the current inventory 29,471 as of July ?
Shouldn't the CO build the inventory for next year ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
I was comparing August 17 Demand data and July 18 Demand data.
EB3 I total numbers reduced from 8877 - 473 (Last quarter movement in 2017 and Last quarter movement in 2018 will be a factor with the actuals) ball park 8400
EB2 I total numbers reduced from 19104 - 15826 ball park 3300.
Total visas for 2018 for EB2/3 I might be around 11700. Visa statistics release later this year will get us to the actual variance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
So - with my priority date 21 August, 2009, EB2 - India, am I looking at 2021 to be just current with just 2 months movement in a year?
I will prepare myself psychologically rather than look forward to in 2019. Thanks
Looks like perfect receipe for chocking downgrades and using extra EB3 numbers for EB1 at the end of FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
I would agree with you, but I expect EB3I filing date to jump into 2010 sometime soon. It should be before April VB though, because it takes a minimum of 6 months to approve those applications.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Quote:
Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
Do you think EB3 I filing date would jump to October 2010 in FY 2020?
I don't think filing date would move even in December. Once the first quarter is done, even if the filing dates jump to 2010, we are dependent on the condition that USCIS respecting it. Never since the filing date concept was introduced, USCIS accepted FD after 1st quarter. EB3 I 2008 dates getting GC is still showing a handful of people only.Quote:
Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
That's a long way out at this point. The projections say EB3 I FAD can pass EB2 I by around 2nd quarter of FY 2019. At that point of time, CO will assess the demand for ROW in both EB 2 and 3, and if he sees the band width to do a big forward movement for EB3. Once that happens, you will start seeing people with both EB2 and 3 petitions utilizing their older petition to get the AOS which can reduce future movements.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
So to answer your question EB3I reaching October 2010 in FY 2020, very high probability.
My short answer would be - yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
USCIS just confirmed they will be using the filing date for Nov 2018.
So this gives one more month for individuals who are trying to get their paperwork together.
No way that would happen. People see big jumps as they happened for EB3 and draw wrong conclusions. If you look carefully big jumps happened in EB3 along with a crawl in EB2 - because of porting from EB3 to EB2.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
Now one should expect the reverse - downporting would make EB3 crawl. This would happen as soon as EB3 FAD start nearing EB2 FAD.
In my view EB3 filing dates would be remain at end 2009 / early 2010 for a very long time to come. I can prove this with numbers but that's for another time.
hello all, Looking at the eb2 pending inventory for India from Jan 2010 to April 2010. 1700 jumped to 4700 between April 2018 inventory and October 2018 inventory ? how is this possible ?
Look at the Inventory only 473 pending as of July 2018. Also, EB2 I whoever has EAD won't jump in so minus out 90% of EB2 off your numbers till April 2010 PD.Quote:
Originally Posted by excalibur123
EB3 I might move aggressively but eventually slow down by hitting early to mid 2011
This 473 does not include the petitions at FO. The future demand data's are only useful to gauge how the EB2 numbers are going down as long as they are not including FO data in there. I have an early 2011 PD in EB3 and I realistically expect to be current by mid FY 2020.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
Looks like what happened with China PD's in 2011-2012 is going to happen .EB2 will now start reverse porting and clog EB3. Eb2 & 3 India should move together at snails pace before the next recession. This is prevent the porters jumping to the faster ship. Hopefully they will clog the EB1 abuse by body shoppers to allow some overflow to EB2Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
I wish they change the SO rule to apply to most backlogged country’s most backlogged category, this will stop all portings and EB1 abuse as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dondraper
I think you should rather be asking why it went down to 1.7k for several reports, since that was non-nonsensical.Quote:
Originally Posted by GCEB420
Here's the history of EB2-I 2010 since October 2014:
Oct-14 --- 4,811
Jan-15 --- 4,801
Apr-15 --- 4,779
Jul-15 --- 4,769
Oct-15 --- 4,768
Jan-16 --- 4,761
Apr-16 --- 4,728
Oct-16 --- 4,787
Jan-17 --- 4,748
Apr-17 --- 1,770
Aug-17 --- 4,725
Oct-17 --- 1,763
Jan-18 --- 1,754
Apr-18 --- 1,754
Jul-18 --- 4,677
Looks like nobody answered my question
with my priority date in August, 2009, EB2 - India, am I looking at 2021 to be just current with just 2 months movement in a year?
I will prepare myself psychologically rather than look forward to in 2019.
Is it possible to be current by 2019 at all.Thanks
The demand inventory in EB2-I between March 2009 to August 2009 is ~5800. EB2I should get a minimum of 2800 green cards a year. You do the math. You are looking at approx 2020 September.Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
Thank you Spec! Also the total pending inventory is at 29000 in July’s inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
It was maintained at 100k in every pending inventory list except the last two.
Do you think they will move the dates to catch up with the inventory ?
I see only approx 54000 EB3 I-140’s filed till 2018. The inventory for EB3 is at 2000.
Should we expect a huge move ?
Hi All,
My company had filed my 495 as an Individual Contributor back in 2009 and I got my EAD in 2012 . If I change my role to an engineering Manager at my current or future employer will that have any issues with the GC. My lawyer tells me that there are absolutely no issues as long I don't move to finance or sales . He said that moving from an IC to an engineering manager with an EAD is permitted. Has anyone done that ?
I really appreciate you answering my questionQuote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
I guess I have to go into hibernation for the next couple of years as it’s no point in keeping a hope on the visa bulletin in 2019.
Hi All,
My company had filed my 495 as an Individual Contributor back in 2009 and I got my EAD in 2012 . If I change my role to an engineering Manager at my current or future employer will that have any issues with the GC. My lawyer tells me that there are absolutely no issues as long I don't move to finance or sales . He said that moving from an IC to an engineering manager with an EAD is permitted. Has anyone done that ?
You can take some credit for potential spillover next year and perhaps a slowdown in economy and immigration crackdown. Some might say there might be reverse porting but realistically it will prevent porting and the inventory from bloating further. I believe the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
Iatiam
When you say the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year for 2009 what exactly do you mean? Can you please explain in simple words. ThanksQuote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
I think, he is expecting both EB2 and 3 I to hit January 2010 by the end of FY 19. A tall order in my opinion. Eb2 already has close to 10 K numbers already with AOS. Lot of EB3 people from 2007 still waiting for GC, not discounting the fact a handful of 2008 early filers getting their GC. If the forward movement does not happen in the January bulletin, we can categorically say we will be in mid 2009's for both category to be around mid 2009 instead of end 2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by canada