This is a very good news for 2009-ers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nsingh
Printable View
This is a very good news for 2009-ers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nsingh
Don't know how much credence to give to this report. There is no source. The claim is that more than 500 EB2C applicants have *downgraded* to EB3C. Click Here
EB3C PD > EB2C PD for at least near future - so it does make sense from a pure PD point of view.
Update> I misread. There is a source. Apparently it was from the May meeting of lawyers with CO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nsingh
Must be an error on someone's part since 2009 PDs are not current. Either he entered 2009 instead of 2008 or USCIS goofed up. Either way, good for him/her.Quote:
Originally Posted by qbloguser
Doesn't impact EB2I in the short term but it will help EB2C get closer to being "C"Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
That's my feeling too. Trackitt has enough wrong/incomplete information floating around. Getting GC while not being current is kinda not even borderline - unless we have other reports of something similar happening - I would chalk it up to just unconfirmed rumor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
USCIS is dealing with 600K+ DACA renewals these days. DACAs will start expiring starting in Sept and renewals can be applied in a 120 day window before expiration. Wonder if that is what is slowing EB approvals, especially TSC. DACA renewals include an EAD - so they have to meet a 90 day timeline for it too.
BTW: $465 fee per renewal X 600K renewals = $279 Million revenue for USCIS. Guess they can afford to hire more staff and speed up processing, if they want/need to.
krishn,
If you ignore the increase in 2012 and add an amount for CP cases, then the reduction would be a little over 4k for the period. That's a pretty good agreement to the figures I have calculated for the period.
By my reckoning, EB3-ROW has already reached somewhere in the expected maximum range for FY2014. Any further visas would now depend on EB3-P not being able to reach their overall 7% figure.
It seems more likely that the dates will not move again until October, when the FY2015 allocation becomes available.
I don't believe EB3-ROW had 9k available for Q4, due to very heavy approvals in Q1 & Q2 in particular.
Trackitt Approvals
Q1 - 94
Q2 - 136
Q3 - 45
Q4 - 1 (to date)
$279M from renewals?! Damn...No wonder they say immigrants contribute to the economy!Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Here is another back of the envelope calculation. Mandatory grain of salt required - lots of assumptions and rough calculations.
1. PERM for ROW/M/P/C (henceforth EEI: Everybody Except India) is averaging ~23K per year in last few years. Rough figure - don't fight it - just accept it - we can do sensitivity to this later.
2. 23K PERM means a demand of 23 * 2.2 Visas per PERM * 1.2 Factor for NIW = ~61K
3. EB-2/3 has allocation of 80K - so we get total allocation of 19K to EB-2/3-I. This is only horizontal spillover in a steady state when EB-2/3-EEI is Current. Right now much of this spillover will not happen since EB-3EEI is far from being Current.
3. Assume 70% to EB2, 30% to EB3. EB2EEI demand ~43K, EB3EEI demand ~18K
4. So in a steady state scenario (when both EB2EEI and EB3EEI are Current), EB2I will get no horizontal spillover - just 3K normal allocation. EB2EEI will get backlogged by 6K (40 - 3 - 43) per year, EB3I will get 19K (40 - 3 - 18) horizontal spillover for total 22K allocation.
Hmm... so in couple of years when we actually reach the steady state above, assuming no FB spillover and no vertical spillover from EB-1/4/5, EB2I is going to get shafted big time while EB3I backlog will clear rapidly. It is also possible that EB3 will become current all around and provide vertical spillover (to EB1 and then hopefully going down to EB2).
Have I made any mistakes above? The conclusion portends a way too horrible future for EB2I! Of course when the above starts happening, EB applicants will start applying into EB-3 rather than EB-2, so the 70:30 ratio will change.
Even if we do a neutral case of 50:50, We will have EB-2/3-EEI demand as 30.5K each, giving EB-2/3-I total allocation of 9.5K each for a total of 19K. Considering EB-I PERM numbers are now in 30K+ range - we can get a sense of the whacking that lies ahead.
Guru's,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
There are 222 EB2I approvals as per Trackitt approvals sheet meaning in real 2886 (approx). Does this mean, till now USCIS got FY 2014-15 quota visa numbers and not SO visa numbers yet from CO. May be CO is waiting to see what are the real numbers from other categories, how many available and then allot visa numbers step by step or move COD if needed as per SO and provide visa numbers accordingly?
Just a thought. What do you think?
Note: We have not seen many approvals this week.
Regards!
General opinion is that the regular quota was already blown away in Oct/Nov. We are definitely consuming spillover at this point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aurora
Hi,
I needed to know what should be filled under the I94 number section on the I485. My last entry into US was in 2011 and that I94 expired in 2011 itself. Since then I have had new H1 approval (in 2012) and the I797 receipt has a new I94. Should I be using the I94 number on the latest I797 approval OR should I be using the I94 number that was stamped in my passport in 2011 during my last entry.
Please move this to appropriate topic after I get a few replies.
JaganQuote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Your I94 on new H1 should match the old I94 number from the travel. Only the expiration date keeps changing with I94
My bad, I meant they would have got FY 2015 numbers (in advance). Instead of using them in Oct/Nov, CO might have used now. Might get clear picture of SO in coming months then allocate accordingly. End of the day we all expect not to waste any visa's :).......Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
The law does not allow that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aurora
FY2015 numbers can only be used from October 1, 2014.
Oct 1 2014 Spec
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Since EB2C is not current, they would not consume any spillovers. Out of 23K PERMs if 5K belongs China, and 70% of them are Eb2, it would turn out to be 9240 visas. So potential spillover is 6440 to India. EB2C is may not become current in next 2-3 years.
Thanks for the reply but they do not match. My i797 renewal was done prior to my short India trip. Hence the two numbers don't match. The subsequent h1 after I changed jobs was based on the i797 approval and hence the new h1 has the amen umber as previous i797 approval.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
There is no provision in law for under use of EB3 visas to be used by other EB Categories (although it hasn't stopped CO from doing so in recent years).
Under the law, visas wasted in EB3 should result in under use of the overall EB allocation and would fall to the FB calculation in the next FY.
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
In general they do match. Getting a new I-94 number do not hurt the process anyway. Use the latest one.
Spec where do you see this fiscal dates movement parked for EB2-I?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for clarifying Spec. I had the thought that EB3 numbers, if available, will fall vertically to EB1 and then to EB2 - just like EB4/5 do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
sairam,Quote:
Originally Posted by sairam09
I wish I could give you a simple answer - I can't.
The change in I-693 policy and the ability of the SC to issue RFE to all affected cases and process responses is in danger of causing a substantial disconnect between the number of cases pending (which is reasonably well known) and the demand they will create for DOS to issue visas within the FY2014 allocation (which is not).
Added to this is the continued apparent high consumption of EB1 (and possibly EB5).
I'll run through the whole spectrum of possibilities as I see them:
If CO chooses to move the COD purely based on the demand he is seeing generated to date, then he would probably have to move the EB2-I dates quite aggressively. There would be little point moving beyond a COD of 01NOV09, since that appears to be the high water mark for RFE issuance to date. All cases with a PD beyond June 14, 2008 must be more than one year old, other than those submitted from July 2014 onwards.
It's quite possible that CO has been in communication with USCIS (or will be) regarding processing timescales and the ability of USCIS to adjudicate sufficient cases. If that is the case, the forward movement could be more modest, assuming he believes the response he receives.
Finally, there is a very remote possibility that CO will both move EB2-I aggressively and also move some other Countries/Categories further than he might otherwise have done. That would present the opportunity for some other Categories/Countries to benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas, if the COD was moved forward. it would turn into a complete crap shoot, so I don't think this is a very likely scenario.
USCIS have yet again shown a complete inability to organize the proverbial "piss up in a brewery". The fault lies there and DOS have little ability to influence them.
Whatever happens, each scenario creates its own problems, either now, or in the future.
Treat my reply as the ramblings of a somewhat frustrated person, rather than an entirely well thought out answer.
Spec - I am really curious what you mean here!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Please reply about the first part of the sentence publicly. And since I am not quite familiar with second part - we can discuss that too over email privately ;)
Thanks for your response..Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
"Treat my reply as the ramblings of a somewhat frustrated person, rather than an entirely well thought out answer." - This is what each individual is facing or under going right now..
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Perhaps it's slang you are not familiar with.
A "piss up" means a group of people going out and drinking a lot (of beer).
Hence, "if someone couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery", they are very bad at organizing things (to put it mildly).
Spec for others who is not familiar with the slang, sounds like some is adulterating the original brewing factory...:)
That would just be a tragic waste of beer!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by sairam09
Well, some beers anyway. There's a few I think taste like that has already happened.
Do you anticipate visa wastage?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Probably not, depending where the COD moves to. I assume you mean EB2-I wastage.
I can't get any sort of handle on the number of RFE that have been sent out to date, which makes an assessment rather difficult.
What's your view?
Thanks Spec. I am not quite familiar with all these things!
But my question was - what is it that USCIS is doing (or not doing) currently that made you say that? Or is this just a general opinion.
I kind of share that opinion - just for the record. But just curious if something new happened.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Forgive my ignorance. I fail to understand this talk about visa wastage.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I feel last year USCIS did assign the visa numbers and later approved the cases in Oct and November. This scenario was put up by Q and I do believe that it happened. If USCIS can assign visa numbers and then give the actual visas in Oct/Nov then the same would happen this year. I do not see a possibility of visa wastage. Lets consider the rate of approvals is lower in Aug as well. The RFEs would surely be processed by Sep and visa numbers will be assigned and people will get approvals in Oct.
Once USCIS runs out with the pre-assigned numbers and the initial quota of the FY22015, they will internally retrogress the dates. Just like they did last year.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Nothing new I think.
I don't think it would have involved rocket science to have systematically issued RFE to those that required them based on PD and expiry date. That does not appear to have happened. Instead, RFE have been issued with seemingly indiscriminate dates. Some people have been approved before the previous I-693 expired, some may not receive them in time, while others are in danger of having to repeat medicals again next year.
Also, the time it is taking for RFE responses to reach the adjudicator to make a final decision on the case seem exceedingly long.
Jagan01,
It's not a view I share.
"Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas"
Spec,
Is it not mandatory rule/law that SO should be used for EB2I first before assigning visas to EB2C(cos PD is > EB2I), EB3I, EB3C or other countries/categories. I didn't get your statement "benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. " how can EB2I be in less demand when there are clear numbers in DD/Inventory just released. Adjudication is same for all categories/countries and IMO I693 issue is valid for all countries/categories right?
Thanks!
Yes, EB2I,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am very much disappointed with the level of approvals, especially from TSC where roughly 55% or more cases traditionally represent. With the level of approvals, they may not even finish the cases that are current in July. From the trackitt data you maintain here, there are roughly 170 EB2I approvals this month. That is roughly 1850-2250 approvals, depending on the conversion ratio. Last fiscal, USCIS would have approved around 14.5 K EB 2 I cases between August and September. Between the movements in July and August, there are roughly 13 k cases + new interfile cases.( May be around 15.5 K cases total). Unless TSC gears up significantly, I do not see them completing many cases. With the chances of further movement in September and if it adds another 6.5k, the total will be around 22k. With 2k or so already greened, around 16k cases needs to be completed between August and September( I took 4k carried forward). I certainly don't see approvals picking up that fast, unless cases are already in the very final stage of visa allocation. The pace required to complete that many cases is certainly achievable but that pace should be much faster than what we noticed last year..
From the inventory, EB2ROW cases are increasing, my hope is,if EB2 I approvals are getting delayed, due to the new medical policy, they have a buffer build in EB2 ROW, and visa wastage can be avoided. That way the risk is spread between this year and early next year..
Note: 6.5 k number is just an assumption, please don't question me..it can be higher or lower..
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I understand. I was myself not a believer of the opinion that visa numbers can be assigned from one FY and then approvals being sent out in Oct of next FY. However, the I485 pending inventory showed evidence enough to convince me to embrace that view.
There was a huge decrease in the pending inventory between Oct and Apr pending inventories. The decrease is not evident from Eb2 numbers but it is seen in EB3I numbers. Many ported and hence EB2I did not see that huge decrease. It was kind of (X(original pending in Eb2I) + Y(Porting from EB3I to EB2i) - Y(Approvals in EB2I) = X)
This decrease in EB3I was almost 3400 and that in Eb2I was 1400. Total approvals in EB2i would have been approximately 4800 in this FY. I am sure that CO did not use SO that early and some of the 4800 did come from previous FY.
Just to keep things in perspective - 10 years back USCIS would literally waste tends of thousands of visas.
I can say with 100% confidence that that's not going to happen again - at least not this year.
But will USCIS waste 500 / 1000/ 1500 visas in a category. Nobody can rule that out.
As per October Approvals - yes indeed I believe that some of the approvals spill into October. But not November. That goes too far.
The reason is simple. DoS can issue a visa as late as 30th Sep. But then USCIS still needs to process the case. Print the card, send an email and whatnot. So post decision activity. So USCIS can still be working on a case in October that technically got visa from prior year quota.
It's really as simple logic as that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Only while there is sufficient demand. Demand is the operative word here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aurora
Last year, there were plenty of EB3-ROW applicants, but USCIS could not process sufficient of them to completion within the time scale. As a result, EB3-I benefited from significant FA within EB3. CO moved the EB3-I COD forward in anticipation of that event. Nobody seemed to mind about that.
If USCIS are unable to process sufficient EB2-I cases to completion (and hence the Demand that DOS "sees"), then the spillover rules allow other Countries/Categories to use the visa numbers (FA first, followed by FD).
The USCIS Inventory is not Demand. That only occurs (for AOS cases) when USCIS actually approve the case and request/use the visa number from DOS.
CO can use estimates of use (as he did in FY2013) when setting the COD for the September VB, so there is nothing illegal in making contingency plans if he feels they are warranted.
If the visa numbers are not used by EB, they will fall to FB next year. Due to the nature of the FB calculation, FB will not receive any extra visas as a result of that. Hence, in the most extreme case, it is preferable for other EB cases to use the visas. For that to happen, the COD has to be sufficiently advanced to make those Countries/Categories cases "current" in the VB. If a case is current in the VB, then it can be approved when adjudicated. That's why a said it would be a total crap shoot and hence a very unsatisfactory solution.
As I tried to make clear, I think the scenario has a very low probability, although it remains an option.
Matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Answer is in your explanation. Last year they processed 14.5K in Aug and Sep. This year they have around 16K (1.5K more) for same period. Why do you think they cannot do it this year when they did last year. True that TSC is slow, who knows NSC would have consumed all visa's released by CO for July.
Regards!