EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Essenel - I looked on "" but couldn't see this post. What was the context / question?

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Page 315, post #4713 on the predictions thread.

Thanks much

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Essenel - I looked on "" but couldn't see this post. What was the context / question?

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see this: http://****************.org/forum/fo...ns-ii-315.html

ya - it was kinda bizarre...no idea what they were referring to. anyway, we will wait and see...

Does ** have a say in the VB? How can they "propose" what to do? I thought VB was entirely at the discretion of CO. I didn't even know there would be discussions around it. This is very strange.

'Propose' seems the wrong word. Read 'Predict'.

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Originally Posted by devi_pd

Does ** have a say in the VB? How can they "propose" what to do? I thought VB was entirely at the discretion of CO. I didn't even know there would be discussions around it. This is very strange.

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Gurus,

I'm not sure if this is the right thread! My priority date is Feb 2009 and hopefully I'll be eligible to file 485 this month.

Unfortunately, I've been arrested on Domestic violence(simple assault) in 2004 and so I've to answer 'yes' in the 485 document. So, I was wondering if someone can help me with the below:

- What are the supporting documents that I would need to send along with the 485 application? I have the court dismissal order and expungement order..
- I understand that my case will be transfered to the local office and I'll be called for an interview. Will the interview happen after the FP? Will I get the EAD first or will I called for the local office interview first?
- I know it's going to hectic, do you know how long does it usually takes to call for the interview?
- Has anyone got their GC with domestic violence arrest?

If anyone knows, can you please advise? Appreciate your help!

That's correct. There might be some insider information and they try to put a spin around it.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

'Propose' seems the wrong word. Read 'Predict'.

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Originally Posted by asankaran

That's correct. There might be some insider information and they try to put a spin around it.

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[T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know. ” —Former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld

But as per natures law Truth prevails finally. Whoever helped to manipulate and influence the system not by allowed means have to answer finally for the sufferings of others. so UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS for knowns;)!

Wtf :)

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Originally Posted by immitime

[t]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know. ” —former united states secretary of defense donald rumsfeld

but as per natures law truth prevails finally. Whoever helped to manipulate and influence the system not by allowed means have to answer finally for the sufferings of others. So unknown unknowns for knowns;)!

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I posted this in the relevant thread. Lets keep ** and Pappu (TOWCD) discussion in that thread. Thanks.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...7634#post17634

PS> On second thoughts - since he is talking about PD in the coming VB - I guess the main thread works too.

My opinion, its all BS from him. He does not have any "new data of filings and approvals", he did not have any "discussions" and he surely does not "propose" anything.

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Originally Posted by essenel

pappu's post on **: "Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly."

I wonder what he means by that....

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Originally Posted by 28thJune2007

Guys

Any one with PD in June/July 2007 getting GC ? My case was filed at Texas center. I already got EAD/AP and was curious to know for how long I need to wait before I get my GC.

Thanks in advance for your answers

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My PD is June 25, 2007, still waiting for GC and my case was filed at VSC bur transfered to TSC in 2010.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

sportsfan

insider news or wild guess?

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based on NVC receipts.

Hi , Im new to this forum. Where do i find Demand Data for EB2?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
this page shows jan11 , india demand data is 150.. what does this means?

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Hi everyone,

Happy new year to all.

Good luck to the first half of 2009 people - I don't want to be premature, but I think it is a given that the dates are going forward at least until June 2009 given the NVC receipt news.

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Sportsfan33, whats your guestimate on March 15,2010 PD?. I know it is too early to ask. I feel current EB2 rollercoaster may stop at Jun 2009( This is approx and there will be definetely retro to somewhere between mar to jun 2008. per Spec, PD 15-Jun-2009 makes 50k inventory,if USCICS trend is to make demand to 0 and start building agin to 50k then it may take 2 years to move further( 25k per year including SOFAD + 2800 per annum). Do you think PD moves further during 2013 seaon Oct 2012 to Mar 2013? I think we may need Mar 2012 Demand Data for further analysis.

You need to consult an attorney. Domestic violence crime makes you an inadmissible alien potentially.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/us...7----000-.html

It mentions:
(E) Crimes of domestic violence, stalking, or violation of protection order, crimes against children and
(i) Domestic violence, stalking, and child abuse Any alien who at any time after admission is convicted of a crime of domestic violence, a crime of stalking, or a crime of child abuse, child neglect, or child abandonment is deportable. For purposes of this clause, the term “crime of domestic violence” means any crime of violence (as defined in section 16 of title 18) against a person committed by a current or former spouse of the person, by an individual with whom the person shares a child in common, by an individual who is cohabiting with or has cohabited with the person as a spouse, by an individual similarly situated to a spouse of the person under the domestic or family violence laws of the jurisdiction where the offense occurs, or by any other individual against a person who is protected from that individual’s acts under the domestic or family violence laws of the United States or any State, Indian tribal government, or unit of local government.


You can read more on:
http://www.justanswer.com/immigratio...12-01-03%7C833

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Originally Posted by reachme_s

Gurus,

I'm not sure if this is the right thread! My priority date is Feb 2009 and hopefully I'll be eligible to file 485 this month.

Unfortunately, I've been arrested on Domestic violence(simple assault) in 2004 and so I've to answer 'yes' in the 485 document. So, I was wondering if someone can help me with the below:

- What are the supporting documents that I would need to send along with the 485 application? I have the court dismissal order and expungement order..
- I understand that my case will be transfered to the local office and I'll be called for an interview. Will the interview happen after the FP? Will I get the EAD first or will I called for the local office interview first?
- I know it's going to hectic, do you know how long does it usually takes to call for the interview?
- Has anyone got their GC with domestic violence arrest?

If anyone knows, can you please advise? Appreciate your help!

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Originally Posted by sathya4x4

Hi , Im new to this forum. Where do i find Demand Data for EB2?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
this page shows jan11 , india demand data is 150.. what does this means?

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That document is 2 months old. Usually, they issue demand data before visa bulletin gets released. But last month, visa bulletin was released without the demand data. The numbers in the chart you linked to indicate the number of applicants that are pre-adjudicated and waiting for a Visa number to be available. Now, you may ask what pre-adjudicated means? It means that their applications have been processed, FBI name-check has been completed and they are found eligible for a GC. Once a visa number is available, the applicants that are pre-adjudicated will be issued GC (probably in the order of the priority dates). Once an application is submitted, under normal scenarios, it usually takes about 90 dates for the application to be pre-adjudicated and show up under "Demand".

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I am real sorry buddy, but I am no where close to an expert in answering your question. However I will just recapture some progression in how came to this point to put things in perspective:

- At the beginning of the FY (or some time before that), Gurus had feared that November 2007 was the outlier for the GC and the dates were projected to be around March 2008 for FY 2012.
- With rapid movement through November and green card issuance, the GC outlier was pushed to Jan 2008 and dates were predicted to be around June 2008.
- Then came the Jan VB bomb that threw everyone off track. Gurus here have some interesting 2D tables that show the estimate GC outlier for a given DD and spillover level. CM on his blog did some similar analysis. At this point, Gurus think the GC issuance date is around March 2008.

No one predicted dates would cross 2009. Similarly, no one can predict if they cross 2010. Can it happen? Sure, it can. If I were you, I would keep my documents ready, but not spend too much time looking for VBs "just yet".

So from November 2007 to March 2008 is a *hugh* relief. It's not just 4 months, it's an estimated disappearing act of a projected demand of 10000 (assuming 2500 per month was peak demand as was estimated before). Everyone should be happy no matter what their PD is. Also, the numbers we are all citing are very rough guesses without the demand data.

So hold on and relax. The worst case, you should be current some time in 2013, which is no small feat. Look, in 2009, everyone was projecting a 6 to 7 year (or some pessimists were going as far as 9 years) wait time for EB2-IC past July 2007. That has all changed. Enjoy the bright days...yours will come soon.

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Thanks for the analysis, sometime in 2013 is Ok for me, hoping for the same.though 2008 got huge perm numbers like 2010, it wiped in matter of 30 days<Dec'11 and Jan'12 Bulletins>. 2009 being light year, anything can happen.

It has not been wiped - it has just been called to stand in the queue. When their turn actually comes at the counter is still anybody's guess. In any case 2013 is probably a good estimate for you to at least get an EAD.

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

Thanks for the analysis, sometime in 2013 is Ok for me, hoping for the same.though 2008 got huge perm numbers like 2010, it wiped in matter of 30 days<Dec'11 and Jan'12 Bulletins>. 2009 being light year, anything can happen.

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Friend’s looks like the upcoming VB could go either way; it is going to be based entirely on the agencies discretion.
Positives -
- Someone with a March 2008 PD got an actual appointment from the Mumbai consulate. Spec posted this news.
- NVC notices being received by mid to late 2009 PD’s. Suninphx posted this news.
- General news and rumors that dates will advance in Feb & Mar bulletins.
- HR 3012 passage likelihood or 2 year inventory theory.

2009 is the leanest of all years so anything is possible.
Negatives –
- Actual SOFAD maybe lower this year and may really range between 20 and 25K. Out of that a minimum of 10K has been used.
- Approvals for Oct filers have dried down, there were a couple of approvals for NSC filers. TSC no one seems to have been approved a few people reported misleading statuses.
- EB1, EB2 ROW and EB3 and older EB2 I/C approvals are coming by steadily these cases have sufficient numbers or may have had a cap number allocated earlier. This may be indicative of the fact that EB2 I/C have had a run further than the Nett generated SOFAD so far.
- Already 40K numbers are in this includes 30K intake and 10K usage at minimum.
Let’s wait for the VB, all the best to everyone, I sincerely hope that the dream run continues and more and more people get to file EAD / AP.

Agree with your sentiment. Fee notices I think have only gone till mid-2009 not late-2009. I think the June-09 is the latest we have.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

- NVC notices being received by mid to late 2009 PD’s. Suninphx posted this news.
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Let’s wait for the VB, all the best to everyone, I sincerely hope that the dream run continues and more and more people get to file EAD / AP.

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Everyone should make the best efforts to file as soon as their dates become current. Some people do have genuine reasons like they changed employers and have to file again, some not married or in other cases spouse stuck in home country for stamping. Unlike in 2007 everyone's labor is approved so there is really nothing to wait for, the entire class of PWMB's including me are those who missed Jul 2007 because our labor went to Atlanta that was taking 3 months. Also if you are close I would say don't change jobs for some time and don't travel, this will be a boat not to miss. Since the intake is going to be so large the next boat may not come next year, the PWMB’s have waited more than 4 years and no one would like to become the next generation PWMB. Hope once again that more and more people become current.

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Originally Posted by RRRRRR

I believe you will get a new Alien number which will be different from the one mentioned on your old EAD. It is good to provide the old information in the forms. I guess you are ok.

On I140 amendment, do you know if your amendment was filed with the original labor (as this is the per-requisite)because my understanding is original labor is submitted only once and that happens once the first I140 is filed.

I guess the other option is once you filed the amended I140 and you receive the receipt number then you can switch to premium...Any ideas which scenario was followed for you.

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RRRRR,
MY Amended 140 was upgraded to PP after 2 months of intital receipt. I looked at I-140 form before the filing and original labor and 140 receipt numbers were mentioned in the file.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Agree with your sentiment. Fee notices I think have only gone till mid-2009 not late-2009. I think the June-09 is the latest we have.

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What is the PD in june 2009 that received the NVC notice? I thought 19 May 2009 was the latest?

Teddy, Spec, correct me if I am wrong...

Typically/historically 5 to 7% of the EB2I post their cases on trackitt.

So based on 15 mar 2008 to 1 Jan 2009 movement of ~ 20,000 and Using OR of 1, we may see about 1000 to 1400 cases being posted on trackitt.

I checked the EB2I I-485 inventory as of Jan 2011 between PDs Jan 2007 to June 2007 and looked up the number of trackitt cases with those PDs to come at 5 to 7% number.

I guess this may be a weak indicator but at least some sort of indicator until we get to see the Jan 2012 I-485 inventory in coming weeks.

Kd, Yes you are correct , I arrived with 6 %.
asper Spec's data collected from trackitt
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases ( extrapolated Total 3966)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases (Total 3183)

But we cant get china numbers via this route. Lets wait for big T and S

Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Agree with your sentiment. Fee notices I think have only gone till mid-2009 not late-2009. I think the June-09 is the latest we have.

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You are right- the case which I posted was May 2009.

But have not seen any co-relation between NVC date and movement being done only to that date. Last year latest NVC we heard was Jun/jul 2008 and we have already crossed that.

2 year inventory could take pd upto march 2010 correct?

this scares S*** out of me :)

==================================

2 year inventory could take pd upto march 2010 correct?

Guys
Pardon my ignorance... but what is NVC date? My PD is Nov 10, 2009 and EB2/I. I have moved from where I was when I had applied for Labor/I-140. Will this cause any issues or will the notice/letter go to my employer/attorney?

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Teddy, Spec, correct me if I am wrong...

Typically/historically 5 to 7% of the EB2I post their cases on trackitt.

So based on 15 mar 2008 to 1 Jan 2009 movement of ~ 20,000 and Using OR of 1, we may see about 1000 to 1400 cases being posted on trackitt.

I checked the EB2I I-485 inventory as of Jan 2011 between PDs Jan 2007 to June 2007 and looked up the number of trackitt cases with those PDs to come at 5 to 7% number.

I guess this may be a weak indicator but at least some sort of indicator until we get to see the Jan 2012 I-485 inventory in coming weeks.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Kd, Yes you are correct , I arrived with 6 %.
asper Spec's data collected from trackitt
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases ( extrapolated Total 3966)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases (Total 3183)

But we cant get china numbers via this route. Lets wait for big T and S

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I think this brings up an important point.

Historically, for Primary cases to Actual Approvals, the % for EB2-I has been :

FY2009 - 7.63%
FY2010 - 6.72%
FY2011 - 5.38% (educated guess)

At least for FY2009 and FY2010 the backlog was fairly steady and well established.

Within FY2011 the % for individual months appeared to vary wildly (from 2% to over 10%). Towards the end of FY2011 it was about 4.5%.

What we have no idea of is the new % of Trackitt people adding their cases and the constancy between months.

For that reason I have reported Trackitt numbers and not tried to assign real numbers to them.

If I used my estimate for FY2011 with the new applications, I would get :

October VB - 100 cases = 1,860
November VB - 240 cases = 4,464

Only October looks to be complete as of yet and later months seem too incomplete to speculate, as new applications are being added every day.

For an OR=0.8 I would expect figures of 1,627 & 4,979 respectively.

The problem is the Trackitt % now (post backlog) may be quite different to the historical past. A new flood of enthusiasm may have led to a greater % of cases being added (in which case the actual figures would be lower), or Trackitt may be less relevant now and the % has declined. As previously mentioned, the % may vary greatly between individual months.

The overall average can only be determined a year from now, when DOS publish the FY2012 figures.

The upcoming USCIS Inventory may help somewhat to calibrate, but, in truth, it won't contain enough data and comes a bit early.

My 2c anyway.

reachme, karma can kick our ass in unexpected ways. i feel sorry for your situation.

i think all is not lost for you. being arrested is not same as being convicted of felony. I am not a lawyer but i think it all depends on what charges were pressed against you and if there was a court sentence etc.

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Originally Posted by reachme_s

Gurus,

I'm not sure if this is the right thread! My priority date is Feb 2009 and hopefully I'll be eligible to file 485 this month.

Unfortunately, I've been arrested on Domestic violence(simple assault) in 2004 and so I've to answer 'yes' in the 485 document. So, I was wondering if someone can help me with the below:

- What are the supporting documents that I would need to send along with the 485 application? I have the court dismissal order and expungement order..
- I understand that my case will be transfered to the local office and I'll be called for an interview. Will the interview happen after the FP? Will I get the EAD first or will I called for the local office interview first?
- I know it's going to hectic, do you know how long does it usually takes to call for the interview?
- Has anyone got their GC with domestic violence arrest?

If anyone knows, can you please advise? Appreciate your help!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

It has not been wiped - it has just been called to stand in the queue. When their turn actually comes at the counter is still anybody's guess. In any case 2013 is probably a good estimate for you to at least get an EAD.

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Thanks imdeng,I am just looking for Ap and eads not sure of others priorities. I can atleast visit my parents whenever I wish. Hope I will get my ap ead by 2013.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

reachme, karma can kick our ass in unexpected ways. i feel sorry for your situation.

i think all is not lost for you. being arrested is not same as being convicted of felony. I am not a lawyer but i think it all depends on what charges were pressed against you and if there was a court sentence etc.

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Thanks Nishant and Q for the info.
In the police report, it says Simple assault. I was arrested that night and finger printed and next day morning I was released. After that the case was dismissed and then I got it expunged.

Hello,

On the onset thank you very much.
I have benefited immensly from this forum.

I need some help with the question which I am sure you are guys are capable.
I am sorry for posting this question here as I am not sure where to post it, please redirect my post as appropriate.

I have a question:

My 485 will be pending for more than 180 days soon and I want to change jobs using AC21.

I want to change my job from "Quality Engineer" to "Desgin Engineer" within the same company. The jobs are different but both of them are in Engineering related to same products.


Can I do it without hampering my GC process?


Regards

sportsfan

There is a clarification on the dec 09 movement, it looks like it was a proposal and Dos would act asper their own discretion.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

sportsfan

There is a clarification on the dec 09 movement, it looks like it was a proposal and Dos would act asper their own discretion.

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Kanmani, Which Proposal are you referring to ? Enlighten me, please :)

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Kd, Yes you are correct , I arrived with 6 %.
asper Spec's data collected from trackitt
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases ( extrapolated Total 3966)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases (Total 3183)

But we cant get china numbers via this route. Lets wait for big T and S

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Kanmani the approach is fine. Unfortunately the way Trackitt works is that people will put in their details at various stages a) Right after the VB b) As soon as they file c) Waiting for EAD / AP d) Waiting for GC e) on the day of approval. So it takes some time before all the entries come in so Trackitt is more reliable for approvals compare simply because the numbers are in by that time. Now Trackitt ratios keep changing as well with time this year looks like EB1C folks are tracking in really large numbers so every country + category can have a different ratio. Well since you are comparing Nov & Dec filers these things should be smoothened out. In all my Trackitt calculations I adjust the lower or higher numbers using some kind of factoring but in this situation it’s really hard so your approach of direct compare is fine. Let’s keep monitoring. For forward movement to continue in the right earnest we should start to see more actual approvals for Oct filers now since 3+ months have elapsed for the early filed cases, we have not seen real traction on this front. Also I hope they will publish the demand data this time and ideally it should give us some guidance.

Considering that Mumbai Consulate update did not happen and the Demand Data is not out yet - and that this was a short week, I guess the chances of VB coming out today is kind of low.

Also - this means that unlike last couple months, we are not looking at a pre-determined VB. It is still evolving - and that I think is not the best news for PD movement. Anyways - wait and see.

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Originally Posted by waiting

2 year inventory could take pd upto march 2010 correct?

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I don't think so ... AFAIK .. from the discussions on this forums, 2 years worth of inventory is counted as "How many visas can CO allocate in 2 yrs to a particular category (EB2 ) considering the SOFAD". This number is then translated to how many people can get in and that decides the cut off date. So 2 years worth of Visas may not translate into 2 years worth of movement.

Also, you are counting 2yrs from the last VB cut off .. that is not how it works.. it is counted using the Demand Data which shows where the oldest of the priority dates, that has filed the I485 but has not received the green card yet, lie. We currently do not have the latest Demand Data and that is part of the confusion.

I think, according to all Gurus the 2 yrs buffer has already been taken in .. any movement now is solely at CO's discretion until the demand/inventory is worked through to a sufficiently low level... hope that helps.

Gurus, let me know if I have misunderstood the process.

Thanks.