Wherever they move dates in August ... I believe everybody should get a visa this year itself. The movement in September though doesn't mean everybody who is current gets a visa.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
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Wherever they move dates in August ... I believe everybody should get a visa this year itself. The movement in September though doesn't mean everybody who is current gets a visa.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
New user ..first post.. Love the forum....thank you gurus.
I am curbing my enthu after being almost positive to be C this year, neways.
Wanted to throw this in, could USCIS be working on the weekend due to possibility of govt shutdown later in the month?
Not sure if this is connected or if it is considered essential service.
Pdmar08,Quote:
Originally Posted by Pdmar08
Welcome! Most of them are e-mail updates from the system.
I am myself trying to wreck my brains over why they worked on saturday.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pdmar08
But it's not because if any govt shutdown. The federal budget is already passed for this FY. Also, USCIS is funded by user fees and hence AOS won't be affected.
What would be affected in a shutdown is PERM since DOL does not charge for labor, as well as consulates abroad would not issue visas.
I think we can relax. Also March 2008 is still a possibility this year in sep oct or nov.
Any chances of VB coming out on Monday ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
28thJune2007,Quote:
Originally Posted by 28thJune2007
Nope, most likely it will be Wed/Thu.
Thanks Veni
I hope we get some indications from Q's source though
Just clarifying: I think we have used approx 24K spillovers so far (3K for May, 9K for June and 12K for July). This chart shows the spillover range between 26K - 32K. So, if we go by the pessimistic estimate, then we only have 2K spillover left and the expected spillover (based on last year's trackitt approval trend) is 8K. Am I interpreting the data correctly here?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
For another 8K spillover, the dates can move around 4 months or up to 8th July'07. If we have only 2K spillover left, it will move only a month or so. But, I think I might be missing something here as the worst case scenario still says May'07.
You need to add 5.6K EB2IC quota to that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
So we got around 24k - 5.6k = 18.4k from other categories so far ( eb5/eb1/eb2 row) ?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
But hasn't the 5.6K (at least 2.8K for EB2-I) been consumed till April'07 for EB3->EB2 porting and any prior EB2-I pending applications?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
pch053,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
You are correct 2.8k EB2I allocation was utilized until April 2011 to clear porting + pending cases until 08MAY2006.
Similarly, 2.8k EB2C allocation was utilized until June 2011 to clear porting + pending cases until 01AUG2006.
Which means, we saw an additional ~21k movement+porting numbers(if any, since April 2011) as of July 2011 Bulitten, based on 10-01-2010 inventory.
Total VISA numbers allocated to EB2IC before AUG2011VB ~= 5.6k+21k ~= 27k
pch,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
I look at it slightly differently, like veni using the October Inventory.
To reach 08MAR07 EB2-IC required 23k visas. If we add on 5k for porting/pwmb then EB2-IC needs 28k to reach 08MAR07.
Q's figures of 26-32k Spillover translate to 31.6 - 37.6k SOFAD.
That leaves 3.6 - 9.6k left for August/September.
At the bottom end that is enough to reach May 07 and the top end well into July 07.
My take anyway.
Thanks Veni, Spec and Q for the detailed explanation and it surely clarified my doubts. Another 3.6K - 9.6K makes perfect sense and it translates to May'07 to mid/late July'07 range. This also explains why ~8K is taken as the consensus as the reality is probably somewhere between 3.6 and 9.6K.
The latest Demand Data is out!
Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Spec, this is a testimony to u guys calculations. Spot on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Wov, only 10.5 k to go. Man that's not much, that's my first feeling.
Great. So are we going to get VB today itself ?. Does anything change with our predictions?.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Also have to say, great job USCIS.
I feel that DOS in fact has a demand vs visas release model and for demand u need inventory. Really hopeful they grab a year's worth.
Looks like we'll have just about enough SOFAD to clear EB2 IC thru to July 07 - as Q pointed out, don't think there will be #s left for EB3 spillover. Probably means less pressure for them to make EB2 current?
Did anybody notice that EB-3 Phillipines has a demand of zero! It makes me wonder.....
it says demand till 1 Jan 2008 is about ~10K ...so if they have around 4-8K then lower end could be May/Jun and upper end could be oct/nov.....right?
Regards
Nat
Q , this is my first post on this forum. Did u get any clue from your source yet ? seems like data is out and we may see bulletin today.
Hi,Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
I am new to this forum and this might be a dumb question.
What does the last row for 2011 imply?
January 1, 2011 4,125 6,525 125 10,775
Thanks,
Deb
I guess those are from the countries that are current. Hence year 2011 for themQuote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
Sorry I meant the last row for EB2 in the demand data.
Cumulative Demand Prior To China India All Other Grand Total
1-Jan-11 4,125 6,525 125 10,775
What does it imply?
Maybe CP demand for fee notices replied to in 2008. Not sure if CP is included here.
It may also be porters who have ported and their old PD are still not registered.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
Sum of the other columns?Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
4125 + 6525 + 125 = 10775
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Just another cock up I think. Quite common for the Demand Data.
The missing spaces are blank not zero.
In any case, it is impossible for EB3-P to have received visas beyond 2005 because ROW-P Cut Off Date limits them.
In addition, the overall EB 7% limit would come into play.
Historically, when there are errors, the table is not updated and uploaded. I hope this will be an exception.
PS:- I also noticed that EB3-I numbers later than 2002 have reduced by a net 625 since the last Demand Data report (presumably porting cases in the main?).
It implies that there are 10,775 applicants who are wating for visa number ( Till 2011 Jan) to get their GC, out of them 4125 are from china , 6525 are from Indian and 125 from other countries.Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
You cannot take count of 2011 Jan for India and China as priority dates got retrogressed for these countries. For example, China as 4125 applicants pending till July'2007 ( probably few more) and not Jan 2011.
I understand this is what you are asking.
Yes you got the import of my question.Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
How come for India demand is 6400 till Jan 1 2008 and only 6525 till Jan 2011?
Does it mean that total 6525 people applied from India in EB2 category in span of 3 years from 2008- 2010.
Looking at the demand numbers for EB2-I, till Jan1st 2008 it has a demand of 6400. By Jan 1st 2011 EB2-I has a demand of 6525. Does anyone know how they got 125 applications between Jan 2008 to Jan 2011 as EB2-I PD never went into 2008?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Nope, after July'2007 - priority dates for India have retrogressed. There are lot of applicants from India From July 2007 to till date (another 3k to 5k applicant before July'2007) who got their I140 approved but waiting to file I485 and these numbers are not counted yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
Example: In next bulletin if priority date of India move to June'2008, we can expect atleast 15,000 new Indian applicants.( rought estimates but Gurus here have given right number ealier)
Deb,Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
The figures are cumulative, so the actual numbers beyond 2007 become:
China - 75
India - 125
ROW - 200
These figures have remained fairly constant over the months, so I believe they represent the rolling monthly number of CP cases that become Documentarily Qualified for ROW and have not yet had the interview and Documentarily Qualified CP cases for China and India with a PD later than the current Cut Off date.
Some of them may have reached that state in July 2007 and been waiting ever since because they became documentarily qualified, but the Cut Off dates retrogressed before the interview date could be set.
I'm not convinced they yet include the cases that were recently sent fee notices.
If I am not mistaken, 6400 is the number of people who have yet to be assigned a visa and filed before the dates retrogressed in July 2007. I am guessing that the 125 comes from porting to EB2 from EB3 and spouses who were able to file once dates got current (for people who were not married in 2007).Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
I am familiar but not so much with the whole demand data/Visa bullettin etc. I tried to go back as much as I could to catch up but have some questions..Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
I also have the same question. What does this number 10000 odd mean? How do they know how many ppl waitin in line after 2007 ?
I might be wrong here, but i know few cases where their spouses applied I485 after 2008( their spouses priority dates in < July 2007). I guess these numbers are count of applicants from Jan'2008 to now.Quote:
Originally Posted by harick
When i compare June 2011 demand data to August demand data i see that EB2C came down from 9250 to 4125 and EB2I came down from 20,350 to 6525.
It looks like DOS/USCIS is making sure India and China are on the same page.
Is there a rule to keep retrogressed countries at around the same priority date?
Thanks for the clarification Spec. Now it makes better sense to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I guess there is one, but not sure if its legal binded or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stemcell
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I am glad that we are on track!