EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

http://www.neopostinc.com/Products/F...e/DS-1200.aspx

neopost ds - 1200 is a machine tool to do high volume paper mailing in envelopes, it seems. So it looks like alongwith doing the paper envelope mail, the machine is also configured to send the mailing payload as a pdf attachment to a defined email address.

secondly a google search for LIVAOS leads to:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ivaos-from-nvc




Also translating this Chinese page:
http://visa01.5d6d.com/archiver/tid-13099.html
gives various references of LIVAOS

Hence adding all this up, it looks like genuine post. Chances of dates reaching this point at least now look quite good. Although it must be said that NVC notices sent out around 6 months before expectation of being current. To counter this, even before last VB, such notices got sent out and the next VB immidiately justified them.

Things are looking up.

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Thanks for all those links Nishant.

I checked profile of the user and it looked fine. I was not very sure about the content of the email.
Agree with '6 month' caveat ...I am just happy that some one in 2009 got NVC fee notice :)

Awesome detailed lookup :)
Thanks.
I am keeping my fingers crossed.... (PD:May2009) ;)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

http://www.neopostinc.com/Products/F...e/DS-1200.aspx

neopost ds - 1200 is a machine tool to do high volume paper mailing in envelopes, it seems. So it looks like alongwith doing the paper envelope mail, the machine is also configured to send the mailing payload as a pdf attachment to a defined email address.

secondly a google search for LIVAOS leads to:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ivaos-from-nvc

Also translating this Chinese page:
http://visa01.5d6d.com/archiver/tid-13099.html
gives various references of LIVAOS

Hence adding all this up, it looks like genuine post. Chances of dates reaching this point at least now look quite good. Although it must be said that NVC notices sent out around 6 months before expectation of being current. To counter this, even before last VB, such notices got sent out and the next VB immidiately justified them.

Things are looking up.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing. I agree that the Trackitt % may change and it therefore makes the data less reliable. In fact it is very difficult at present to know what conversion factor to use.

Here's a different perspective.

I looked at the data with USCIS Received dates from October 2011 onwards and by the PD range made current in each VB. I have looked at Primary applicants only, because Trackitt is not reliable for Dependent numbers.
December 24, 2011

October VB - 92 cases
November VB - 225 cases
December VB - 151 cases

I also looked at when the cases were added to the Tracker by the user for the October VB movement.

The average date is 19 days after the USCIS Receipt Date, the median is 14 days after the USCIS Receipt Date and the Max to date is 72 days after USCIS Receipt Date.

Within the range that conversion factors were bouncing around last year, the number of Trackitt applications for October and November VB movements are reasonably consistent with those expected for an OR of 0.8. It is not possible to be very precise about this yet.

The December figures are low, but since the time to add a case to Trackitt after USCIS Receipt may be 14-19 days, they may well only represent a fraction of the Trackitt cases we will eventually see for movement in the December VB.

I hope this helps in thinking about the subject.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec,

Here are follow up numbers as on today:


Jan - July 2007 --- 789

Aug07- Mar 08 ----445

I know these are still early days but numbers are still significantly low. I will post the numbers again after two weeks and then take your help to figure out how to interpret those(if you think data to be good enough to be discussed at that point)

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suninphx,

Here is an update from my side as of today (Jan 3, 2012) for cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 100 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 --- 15 cases

Cases for October VB have virtually dried up, but cases for all other VBs continue to be added daily. I have removed many duplicates in the data, so these are the net figures.

I will update when you next post progress.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

Here is an update from my side as of today (Jan 3, 2012) for cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 100 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 --- 15 cases

Cases for October VB have virtually dried up, but cases for all other VBs continue to be added daily. I have removed many duplicates in the data, so these are the net figures.

I will update when you next post progress.

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Thanks Spec! I will post updated numbers in about 2 weeks.

This is some interesting news ... do you guys think that this news might affect future movement

http://www.thedaily.com/page/2012/01...est=latestnews

Dear friends,

Want to share a good news. I had submitted my AOS package to TSC on 6th December (PD-Sept '07) and today i got an email informing me that they have approved my EAD and AP applications. Curiously, my finger printing is not done yet. It is scheduled for later this week. I am not sure what inference can be drawn from this but i am sure it definitely is a positive sign for several of us and our family members who have been waiting for EAD.

thanks.

With regards to suninphx's post about the Nvc fee notice from trackitt, can some one please explain what this fee notice is about? Would people who opt for I-140 -> I-485 route see this? Or is it only for people who opt for CP? Sorry for the newbie question. I only have a superficial understanding of the process so far.

ramchand,
When I140 is filed then attorney has an option to specify whether this immigrant for whom 140 is being filed will file 485 to adjust his status or will opt CP route in future.
For an I140 which has CP elected, on approval it goes to NVC and remains there. Then when NVC gets an idea on future date movements then it sends a notice to the person to submit fees and docs for further processing, in anticipation of working on his/her case.

What I have heard from experts around here is that there is usually a lag of 6 months from fee receipt notice to PD touching that date.

Hope it helps.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by longgcque

What I have heard from experts around here is that there is usually a lag of 6 months from fee receipt notice to PD touching that date.

Hope it helps.

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I may be incorrect here, but I do believe that seeing the NVC fee receipts does not necessary mean that the dates will only move 6 months later. In recent times,we have seen fee receipt requests within weeks of VB movement.

Other Gurus on this forum - please correct me if I am incorrect.

mechanical13, I agree with you, there is no documented rule to justify 6 months criteria. All I quoted was what i have heard and it roughly applies looking at past tends(la_ch_2002 reported in 8/2011 about NVC receipt and dates moved in approx 4 months, my dates are close to his PD
).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

I may be incorrect here, but I do believe that seeing the NVC fee receipts does not necessary mean that the dates will only move 6 months later. In recent times,we have seen fee receipt requests within weeks of VB movement.

Other Gurus on this forum - please correct me if I am incorrect.

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Ramchand,

People who opt for CP will only receive this NVC fee notices. Based on my observations in earlier posts, if you pay the fees, it will be valid for 1 year and this is just an indicator that dates can move forward in coming bulletins.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ramchand

With regards to suninphx's post about the Nvc fee notice from trackitt, can some one please explain what this fee notice is about? Would people who opt for I-140 -> I-485 route see this? Or is it only for people who opt for CP? Sorry for the newbie question. I only have a superficial understanding of the process so far.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by dreamer

Ramchand,

People who opt for CP will only receive this NVC fee notices. Based on my observations in earlier posts, if you pay the fees, it will be valid for 1 year and this is just an indicator that dates can move forward in coming bulletins.

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You have one year to pay fees or request to move file to AOS. Fees once paid and accepted are valid forever.

140 & 485 approvals


http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eb2visa

140 & 485 approvals


http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada

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Old news. This is just a re-statement of the figures contained in All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2011) published on November 29, 2011.

My PD is Jan 5 2009, and i received the NVC fee notice on 30th December 2011. So it seems 6 month rule does not necessarily apply. But it is a good sign that dates will move in next bulletin for sure.

Somebody mentioned earlier in this or other thread that one has to reply to NVC fee notice within 30 days, I guess this is incorrect. You have upto 1 year to either pay the fee or inform NVC about AOS (if one wants to change CP to AOS). Gurus please correct if i am wrong.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

I may be incorrect here, but I do believe that seeing the NVC fee receipts does not necessary mean that the dates will only move 6 months later. In recent times,we have seen fee receipt requests within weeks of VB movement.

Other Gurus on this forum - please correct me if I am incorrect.

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We now have several confirmed reports of people with 2009 PD receiving fee notices AFTER the last VB was issued. Since CO controls both the VB and the NVC, both departments can be assumed to follow a consistent policy directive - so it does seem clear that the direction for Feb VB is forward. The magnitude of the movement is the remaining question.

None of the fee notices are deep in 2009 though - so as such we don't have support for a large movement in Feb VB from fee notices point of view.

Every time I see visa bulletin, I try to interpret the standard paragraphs but not quite sure what they represent. Especially the paragraph listed below.
-----------------------
2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320
-----------------------

Questions:
Does this mean that (hypothetically speaking) the total number of possible EB (1 to 5) + FB Green cards for any country in a year are 7% of (226K + 140K) = 25.62K?
Which means, no matter what the available SOFAD for a single country the maximum limit is set at 25.62K?
Also a spike in FB numbers could possibly suppress EB2 spillover even if there is available SOFAD?



Disclaimer: please ignore my lack of expertise in this subject:) but an overview of how the numbers work might help.

Hi imdeng, from your recollection, what was the farthest date from 2009 PDs that got the fee notice? I am trying to estimate just how good my chances are with wife's PD of 1st april, 2009.

My understanding is as follows: 7% limit does applies to EB+FB visa issue - but spillovers are not counted in this limit. That is why EB3IC can not get more than 2.8K (the EB3 portion of the 7% limit: 40K*0.07) but EB2IC can get more since the category is current and spillover from EB2ROW/EB1 adds to the base 2.8K allocation. Further, a country can exceed 7% in one category as long as it is within 7% when taken as a whole (e.g. South Korea gets way more than 2.8K EB3 every year because of this loophole since their FB consumption is low)

Hope this answers your question.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cool_mj007

Questions:
Does this mean that (hypothetically speaking) the total number of possible EB (1 to 5) + FB Green cards for any country in a year are 7% of (226K + 140K) = 25.62K?
Which means, no matter what the available SOFAD for a single country the maximum limit is set at 25.62K?
Also a spike in FB numbers could possibly suppress EB2 spillover even if there is available SOFAD?

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19 May 2009 has been the latest report on trackitt that seems genuine. It is from a an occassional poster who registered on trackitt in 2009 and has a history of sincere posts there.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ramchand

Hi imdeng, from your recollection, what was the farthest date from 2009 PDs that got the fee notice? I am trying to estimate just how good my chances are with wife's PD of 1st april, 2009.

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Thanks imdeng, this certainly helps.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

My understanding is as follows: 7% limit does applies to EB+FB visa issue - but spillovers are not counted in this limit. That is why EB3IC can not get more than 2.8K (the EB3 portion of the 7% limit: 40K*0.07) but EB2IC can get more since the category is current and spillover from EB2ROW/EB1 adds to the base 2.8K allocation. Further, a country can exceed 7% in one category as long as it is within 7% when taken as a whole (e.g. South Korea gets way more than 2.8K EB3 every year because of this loophole since their FB consumption is low)

Hope this answers your question.

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Last year also latest NVC notice date was Jun_jul 2008 but still dates moved past that. So lets not loose the hope, yet. :)

FYI : Texas Service Center
Application Received : Dec' 15th
Receipts Received : Dec' 23rd
FP Received : Jan' 04th
FP Date : Jan' 25th

I thought this was a potentially interesting post on Ron Gotcher's forum

Quote:

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EB2 India CP interview scheduled at Mumbai Consulate

Good news, my CP interview is scheduled at Mumbai Consulate on Feb 07, 2012

a. PD date is Mar 05, 2007 EB2 India
b. Current as of Dec 01, 2011
c. Received letter from NVC on Dec 12, 2011 saying that Mumbai Consulate is processing the case though I applied for Chennai Consulate (Starting from Jan 1st 2012 either Mumbai or Delhi will process the immigration cases it seems)
d. Received email from NVC on Jan 03, 2012 stating that Mumbai consulate scheduled interview on Feb 07, 2012
e. Submitted origianl DOB certificate to NVC still they asked me to bring original DOBC to interview (Sent email to Mumbai Consulate and waiting for their response)
f. Planning to take appointment with Apollo Hospital Chennai for medicals on 1st week of Feb (Medicals can be done at any of consulate approved hospitals)

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It says the PD is March 05, 2007 EB2 India, but it must actually be March 05, 2008 EB2 India, if it only became Current in December 2011.

So, an applicant with a PD in March 2008, that is Consular Processed, may walk out of the Consulate on February 07, 2012, knowing their case is approved.

In contrast, an AOS applicant with the same PD probably won't know until April-May 2012, by which time there is always the possibility of retrogression.

It does show the advantages CP can have, if it's a possibility.

Congratulations Sandeep2011. This is really fast.
Did you notice any LUDs on our case before you got email confirmation?

I'm also eagerly waiting for my EAD approval, still show Initial Review.

Thanks & Enjoy!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sandeep2011

Dear friends,

Want to share a good news. I had submitted my AOS package to TSC on 6th December (PD-Sept '07) and today i got an email informing me that they have approved my EAD and AP applications. Curiously, my finger printing is not done yet. It is scheduled for later this week. I am not sure what inference can be drawn from this but i am sure it definitely is a positive sign for several of us and our family members who have been waiting for EAD.

thanks.

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Can we infer that Mar 15 2008 will be current for the next 2 visa bulletins?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I thought this was a potentially interesting post on Ron Gotcher's forum



It says the PD is March 05, 2007 EB2 India, but it must actually be March 05, 2008 EB2 India, if it only became Current in December 2011.

So, an applicant with a PD in March 2008, that is Consular Processed, may walk out of the Consulate on February 07, 2012, knowing their case is approved.

In contrast, an AOS applicant with the same PD probably won't know until April-May 2012, by which time there is always the possibility of retrogression.

It does show the advantages CP can have, if it's a possibility.

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Yes, agreed. Ron Gotcher has pointed this benefit out earlier on his forum himself also.

One thing I don't understand is how this is possible to do CP. I mean I am working here, I have a life here, I am settled here, how can I go to India for CP, pretty sure it's not a one day thing. You have to get your documents, police clearance certificates, medicals in indian hospitals and so on. I have always been curious as to how a CP is practical for EB based petition. It may make sense in say EB4 or EB5 or EB3 nurses etc. Just a general thought to fellow forum members.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I thought this was a potentially interesting post on Ron Gotcher's forum



It says the PD is March 05, 2007 EB2 India, but it must actually be March 05, 2008 EB2 India, if it only became Current in December 2011.

So, an applicant with a PD in March 2008, that is Consular Processed, may walk out of the Consulate on February 07, 2012, knowing their case is approved.

In contrast, an AOS applicant with the same PD probably won't know until April-May 2012, by which time there is always the possibility of retrogression.

It does show the advantages CP can have, if it's a possibility.

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Hi everybody!

My case status is still showing "not found". I checked all the case number ranges and noticed that, for cases >= SRC1290067724 (TSC) , the status is up to date. However, from case SRC1290067725 and above, the online database has not been updated. For NSC, the LIN numbers are getting updated and cases show up after a week.

Anyone else with a case > SRC1290067724 able to view their case online?

Cheers

-Rocky

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rockybaba

Hi everybody!

My case status is still showing "not found". I checked all the case number ranges and noticed that, for cases >= SRC1290067724 (TSC) , the status is up to date. However, from case SRC1290067725 and above, the online database has not been updated. For NSC, the LIN numbers are getting updated and cases show up after a week.

Anyone else with a case > SRC1290067724 able to view their case online?

Cheers

-Rocky

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The last five digits of my case number is 68XXX and receipt date is 12/08 and it is still not found. I was thinking of calling the 800 number, but did not bother to do that since I have received my FP notice last week and decided to wait for another couple of weeks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mygctracker

Congratulations Sandeep2011. This is really fast.
Did you notice any LUDs on our case before you got email confirmation?

I'm also eagerly waiting for my EAD approval, still show Initial Review.

Thanks & Enjoy!

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Thanks. I received the email on same day when LUDs were updated.

Is it OK if you go before FP Date ? Do i need to inform to USCIS?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mygctracker

Congratulations Sandeep2011. This is really fast.
Did you notice any LUDs on our case before you got email confirmation?

I'm also eagerly waiting for my EAD approval, still show Initial Review.

Thanks & Enjoy!

---

Hi Guys, I have question on I-765 EAD Application. I applied for EAD earlier when I was in F1 and got for one year. Now my attorney sent me the drafts for I-765 application along with I-485 and AP. on my EAD application instead of mentioning as new EAD , he mentioned in the application as Renewal and attached my old F1 EAD. I just want to know if anyone has filed as a new EAD application even though they had EAD before during F1. Please let me know.

And also my I-485 amendment was approved last week through premium processing, earlier somebody mentioned that premium processing is not possible for I-140 amendments but that is not true. Mine and some of my friends I-140 Amendment was approved through PP.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by EB2Jun08

Hi Guys, I have question on I-765 EAD Application. I applied for EAD earlier when I was in F1 and got for one year. Now my attorney sent me the drafts for I-765 application along with I-485 and AP. on my EAD application instead of mentioning as new EAD , he mentioned in the application as Renewal and attached my old F1 EAD. I just want to know if anyone has filed as a new EAD application even though they had EAD before during F1. Please let me know.

And also my I-485 amendment was approved last week through premium processing, earlier somebody mentioned that premium processing is not possible for I-140 amendments but that is not true. Mine and some of my friends I-140 Amendment was approved through PP.

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I believe you will get a new Alien number which will be different from the one mentioned on your old EAD. It is good to provide the old information in the forms. I guess you are ok.

On I140 amendment, do you know if your amendment was filed with the original labor (as this is the per-requisite)because my understanding is original labor is submitted only once and that happens once the first I140 is filed.

I guess the other option is once you filed the amended I140 and you receive the receipt number then you can switch to premium...Any ideas which scenario was followed for you.

USCIS indicated that they anticipate increased income this FY is an important point to consider.

Are there any Fee hikes in the works? If not, how are they planning to increase income? VISA fees don't go to the USCIS, they go the DoS, so it can't be that they are considering increase in B1/B2/ F1 applications.

My thoughts are that this may be an indication that they are going to increase fees, they anticipate the number of H1s/L1 to increase substantially (not going to happen for H1, and L1 is under a lot of scrutiny these days), or they anticipate moving the priority dates for the most retrogressed countries.

Any thoughts on this line of reasoning? Am I missing something?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Now there are ways to increase revenue without simply raising fees or application intake.

Automation: Issuing FP notices, lockboxes scanning packet and streamlining intake, moving to e filing for forms instead of all manual, and so on

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You are correct that the USCIS comes under the DHS, and there may be multiple ways of increasing revenue.

I however do not believe that automation will increase revenue. Revenue is money coming IN the door, and automation will reduce money going OUT the door.

If I am not mistaken, the USCIS memo to congress indicated that they anticipate revenue to increase. USCIS is of course not a for-profit enterprise, so it can't be that they were indicating that they anticipate revenue to be the same, but they anticipate income to increase via automation.

Is my understanding mistaken?

I am not economics major, definitions aside, I was just an example that came to mind.

I do not believe that for USCIS to make money, they would ask DOS to move dates incorrectly, just my opinion.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

You are correct that the USCIS comes under the DHS, and there may be multiple ways of increasing revenue.

I however do not believe that automation will increase revenue. Revenue is money coming IN the door, and automation will reduce money going OUT the door.

If I am not mistaken, the USCIS memo to congress indicated that they anticipate revenue to increase. USCIS is of course not a for-profit enterprise, so it can't be that they were indicating that they anticipate revenue to be the same, but they anticipate income to increase via automation.

Is my understanding mistaken?

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I am sure many of us have started the VB Stalking already. For the uninitiated, two of the more popular options are:

1. Mumbai Consulate's PD Page: http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
This gets updated on Thu night usually, well before the Fri morning release of VB in US. It has been on the dot last couple VBs - however, it once copy pasted wrong info too. Anyways - my money is on this coming first. People working late tonight - make sure your F5 key works :-)

2. VB's PDF Page: http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Feb2012.pdf
DoS follows a consistent naming convention for their PDF web files - so if some intern manages ti upload the PDF before time then the link above would be live before official issue of VB. It has happened before - could happen again.

3. Well, nothing beats the real deal - the actual VB: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

Do remember that since it is a short week, the VB might not come this Fri. However, I don't think DoS is taking into account the Jan first week data and like past couple times, the VB is already decided - so it might very well happen on Fri.

Guys

Any one with PD in June/July 2007 getting GC ? My case was filed at Texas center. I already got EAD/AP and was curious to know for how long I need to wait before I get my GC.

Thanks in advance for your answers

pappu's post on **: "Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly."

I wonder what he means by that....

Essenel - I looked on "" but couldn't see this post. What was the context / question?