EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Teddy,

Agree about August, but I believe DOS must move the dates beyond August 2007 in the September 2011 VB.

Otherwise, once we are in FY2012, the initial limits apply and DOS will be constrained by only moving as far as the 253rd applicant to whom a visa is available in a month, or 758th if you consider the quarter as a whole.

Existing PWMB and Porting cases from FY2011 movement that are adjudicated in FY2012 can use up that number.

It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

As has been pointed out, moving the dates in September 2011 gives the maximum possible time to preadjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in FY2012.

That, in part, is why I don't think they want complete transparency about the actual demand left to fulfil.

Another viewpoint at least.

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Spec,
I am back...

FY 2011 USCIS used all 2.8k(7%) allocation in the first two quarters itself(averaging 500 month) for EB2I.
If EB1 demand continue similar to this year then USCIS may issue 500 per month to EB2I again in FY2012!

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec thanks for posting this, this is good information I believe you posted it earlier as well. So in reality it’s legally untenable to move the dates to have say a year’s worth on intake in early / mid FY 2012. Let’s hope then it happens in September because otherwise if the fresh intake is delayed to Q3 / Q4 2012 there will be insufficient time to adjudicate the newly filed EB2 cases. Let’s wait and watch really looks like the coming 2 VB's will be really interesting.

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Teddy,

We are talking about DOS, so anything is possible, but it strikes me that they might want to avoid that scenario.

They can get around that by announcing extra visas being available from EB1/2/5, but realistically it is difficult for them to do that any earlier than the May VB.

To me (and as you point out) that doesn't leave enough time to guarantee adjudication within the FY.

It may be that staying within the law is not something that DOS are concerned about, in which case they can do what they like, but it would open them up to cases brought by EB3, who might otherwise possibly get some spillover at the end of FY2012.

In addition, again theoretically, if they followed the law, they might run out of demand within EB2 and face the possibility of making it Current at the end of FY2012.

Conversely, EB3 could never prove that there was no basis for moving the dates beyond August 2007 in September 2011. That is a judgement call (consular return rate etc etc.)

It's as much a philosophical discussion point as one based on tangible facts.

The wait is killing me!

Spec.. same here wait is really horrible :-) Hope we get the bulletin soon. But one thing is amazing how you guys are dedicated to this blog answering every question that's just fantastic.

From our "sources" do we have any info on date movement, source was dead-on with the VB not coming out today. just curious

Teddy I am beginning to come to terms with Specs theory about EB3 spillover going to ROW before IC. Teddy your point about SOFAD spillover to EB3 is also well taken. The trackitt trend that I calculated under FACTS and DATA section gave me those numbers. The best case scsenario is still 39K SOFAD which can easily put us over Aug 2007. But that trend has certainly narrowed in last 1-2 months.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

@spec - Looks like the way EB3 ROW is moving this year M & P may even exceed last year. I completely agree with you on the spillover logic. The version that you have in facts and data was even quoted by Sangiano recently. Unfortunately EB3-I is in a terrible situation they however did not lose anything though in the change of interpreation it w going to EB3-ROW earlier now EB2 I/C.

@q - I personaly believe that the version of fall down that spec has incase of a default the numbers will go to EB3 ROW is the correct one, maybe you would like to review thefirst post in light of that. Whether this situation of fall down will happen is another question the probability of that happening is less as we all are in agreement that true SOFAD left is ~ 8K and USCIS has a stockpile of EB2 ROW and EB1 Apps the totals are unprecedented atleast in the alst couple of years. I see that you have a probability of 30% for this scenario IMHO probably its only 10%. Another point to note is EB2 ROW aprovals are also coming quite regularly on Trackitt besides EB2 I.

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Spec ... bow to you. I loved this thing that you have brought forth. The rule makes perfect sense ...if an area is oversubscribed then for an individual country to be separately identified the country has to be overly retrogressed compared to others. The not so funny thing is that they do not apply 7% rule for such countries. So that explains why S Korea gets 6-7K in EB2 and Mexico doesn't get as much in EB3.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

The THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf mentions this (at the very end).



Therefore, EB3-M cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB3-ROW, however few remaining cases they might (or might not) have.

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I think both are great guys (or girls!). But most likely they are different. The reason being I had never seen the kind of clarity of thought and depth of analysis that Spec brought to this forum. I don't know where he was hiding so long. May be I haven't read enough of Sangiano's writings. Sangiano by the way is very appreciate of teh work of this forum and is very kind in referring people to our site.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

Do we still believe in here that Sangiano and Spectator are different? I am surprised. I believe they are same and share same level of knowledge and have similar writing style. I may be wrong but that is what I assumed through out this never ending immigration journey on this wonderful website. i beleive that is why we (atleast me) do not know his PD.:). At end of the day it's all good, he is doing wonderful job and I admire his knowledge and passion.

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imdeng kudos to you for saying that. That is the truth... we are not the center of universe and us getting a GC is nobody's concern. The sooner one realizes it .... the less frustrated s/he will feel.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Although we would like to think that we are the center of USCIS's world - we are actually a very small part of their caseload. There are more than 1 million green cards issued every year - EB accounts for only 140K of it. FB is much more important to USCIS from a workload point of view than is EB. Add to it the many millions of AOS requests, H1B Extensions, AP/EAD etc - and EB GC is a very small part of what USCIS does.

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Spec you really believe that? Who is going to punish them if they do so? At the most they will get a slap on the wrist.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

yup. crashed.

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trackitt is up again; so far, we see around 25 approvals for the month of July (plus a few who reported it in the threads but didn't create or update their profile).

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Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
I am back...

FY 2011 USCIS used all 2.8k(7%) allocation in the first two quarters itself(averaging 500 month) for EB2I.
If EB1 demand continue similar to this year then USCIS may issue 500 per month to EB2I again in FY2012!

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Veni,

An interesting insight.

The above is true (and they appear to have issued even more in FY2009) - DOS might claim that they did not violate the overall 27% limit for all Categories / Countries. But even 400 - 500 a month doesn't seem sufficient to make much headway with the EB2-IC Cut Off Dates IMO particularly as PWMB adjudications start to ramp up. The net extra numbers would still be relatively small.

Maybe it would be just enough to use up the CP cases to May/June 2008.

It might work, but it would be quite a risky move and still presents a timing problem to adjudicate the resulting AOS cases in time.

I'll have to think about it a bit more.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec you really believe that? Who is going to punish them if they do so? At the most they will get a slap on the wrist.

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Q,

DOS managed to get away with that in 2007.

Congress is not very appreciative of Departments that break the laws they set and a few representatives would probably like nothing better than to knock State around a bit.

It could also be a crushing blow to the perception of legal immigration.

I wouldn't dismiss it so lightly.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Teddy,

We are talking about DOS, so anything is possible, but it strikes me that they might want to avoid that scenario.

They can get around that by announcing extra visas being available from EB1/2/5, but realistically it is difficult for them to do that any earlier than the May VB.

To me (and as you point out) that doesn't leave enough time to guarantee adjudication within the FY.

It may be that staying within the law is not something that DOS are concerned about, in which case they can do what they like, but it would open them up to cases brought by EB3, who might otherwise possibly get some spillover at the end of FY2012.

In addition, again theoretically, if they followed the law, they might run out of demand within EB2 and face the possibility of making it Current at the end of FY2012.

Conversely, EB3 could never prove that there was no basis for moving the dates beyond August 2007 in September 2011. That is a judgement call (consular return rate etc etc.)

It's as much a philosophical discussion point as one based on tangible facts.

The wait is killing me!

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Spec you are right the discussion is more philosophical than numerical. I would also agree with Veni that EB2-I cap was fully burnt out much earlier. Now since there are no approval statistics published monthly but just an annual report so all that can be audited is whether the allocations were followed in he letter and spirit. Now in 2011 it probably will be ok. In 2012 if extra intake is not taken in 2011 there will surely be a conflict between the law and the letter and spirit because the adjudication process is slow, EB3 ROW will get the spillover for sure if EB2 intake is not done in a timely manner. It’s a matter of wait and watch now, the wait getting long for everyone of us.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

An interesting insight.

The above is true (and they appear to have issued even more in FY2009) - DOS might claim that they did not violate the overall 27% limit for all Categories / Countries. But even 400 - 500 a month doesn't seem sufficient to make much headway with the EB2-IC Cut Off Dates IMO particularly as PWMB adjudications start to ramp up. The net extra numbers would still be relatively small.

Maybe it would be just enough to use up the CP cases to May/June 2008.

It might work, but it would be quite a risky move and still presents a timing problem to adjudicate the resulting AOS cases in time.

I'll have to think about it a bit more.

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Spec,
I think as long as monthly EB1 and EB2ROW usage is low, USCIS can try to use EB2I 7% annual allocation in the first two quarters!

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Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
I think as long as monthly EB1 and EB2ROW usage is low, USCIS can try to use EB2I 7% annual allocation in the first two quarters!

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Veni,

I don't have much of a problem with that.

The problem is more about how they would balance actual demand left, the timing of PWMB/Porting Demand, the movement of the Cut off Dates, CP demand in the future, not actually running out of demand in doing that and getting applications in early enough that they can be adjudicated in time. It becomes very convoluted and complicated.

Occam's Razor says it is a hell of a lot easier to do in FY2011 and save that pain.

Who knows!

Hi all, approval email with PD Jan 23, 2007. Thanks for all the help. Hope this data point helps that they are covering all month cases in the first week itself.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I don't have much of a problem with that.

The problem is more about how they would balance actual demand left, the timing of PWMB/Porting Demand, the movement of the Cut off Dates, CP demand in the future, not actually running out of demand in doing that and getting applications in early enough that they can be adjudicated in time. It becomes very convoluted and complicated.

Occam's Razor says it is a hell of a lot easier to do in FY2011 and save that pain.

Who knows!

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You gurus are now reaching the stage of enlightenment, tending towards Buddha.

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Originally Posted by gchopeful123

Hi imechanix,

All the best to you. I am sure that you will be current in this bulletin. BTW, can you pl tell me how much the doctor charged for the entire process?

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300$ per person + Chest X ray charges (they took my insurance card)

Hello everyone, my application was approved on the first day of July. My priority date is 1/28/07. Best wishes to everyone waiting.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I don't have much of a problem with that.

The problem is more about how they would balance actual demand left, the timing of PWMB/Porting Demand, the movement of the Cut off Dates, CP demand in the future, not actually running out of demand in doing that and getting applications in early enough that they can be adjudicated in time. It becomes very convoluted and complicated.

Occam's Razor says it is a hell of a lot easier to do in FY2011 and save that pain.

Who knows!

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Spec,
I am with you.

Looks like trackitt updates picked up steam!

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Originally Posted by PD1006

Received approval notice alert via e-mail today
Approval date seems to be July 5 - note says they mailed us a notice of approval
EB2I - PD 17 Oct 2006
Filed at TSC

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Received the cards as well

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Originally Posted by PD1006

Received the cards as well

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PD1006,
Congratulations.

Got green cards in the mail this evening.

Contacted the senator on 28th June, she confirmed that the card was approved on 1st July.

I strongly suggest that people who are current contact the senator this really help.

Amit

I was greened on 7/7. I called customer service and talked to a second level rep who confirmed that both my and my wife's cards were approved. EB2-I, Dec 2006 PD. Filed in Aug 2007. This is the best immigration related blog out there. Thanks for all you contribution.

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Originally Posted by Zoroark

Prediction
August Bulletin - May 8, 2007

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What is the general consensus now on the Aug bulletin? Does the majority expect that it will be around May'07 - June'07 time frame? I think another 8K spillover will push the dates to end of June'07 and additional 3K will cover remaining pending applications up to Aug'07. As we have seen in the past, our estimates can go wrong and there can be surprises but still prediction is always a fun game. We will come to know next week for sure!

Folks - I think we should explore archiving all the discussion and starting a new thread. We anyway have the summary on the first page - so no information will be lost - and it will become easier to navigate for the newbies.

Take a look at this. This dude was pretty close in his predictions - cud be an alias for some of the experts here, who knows :)

http://www.immigration-information.c...ditions-12708/

Thanks for your wishes. Enclosed is the summary of my case. EB2-I PD Dec 14, 2006 filed in TSC in Aug 2007. Case was transferred to NBS and was called for interview in Sept 2009. Immigration officer asked few questions, verified few documents and told me that she would have approved my case if my priority date was current. None the less she requested a visa number. Case stayed in NBS for over a year and then it was transferred back to TSC in Mar 2011. I finally received the email on 7/7/2011 about the approvals. I was a regular reader of this forum. Q, Teddy, V and others were very knowledgeable and diligently answered all the question. This forum was spot on with its predictions. Hats off to you all. Thank you Q for starting this forum.

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Originally Posted by nuvikas

Thanks for your wishes. Enclosed is the summary of my case. EB2-I PD Dec 14, 2006 filed in TSC in Aug 2007. Case was transferred to NBS and was called for interview in Sept 2009. Immigration officer asked few questions, verified few documents and told me that she would have approved my case if my priority date was current. None the less she requested a visa number. Case stayed in NBS for over a year and then it was transferred back to TSC in Mar 2011. I finally received the email on 7/7/2011 about the approvals. I was a regular reader of this forum. Q, Teddy, V and others were very knowledgeable and diligently answered all the question. This forum was spot on with its predictions. Hats off to you all. Thank you Q for starting this forum.

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Thanks for the info, mine also similar case. Did you rise any SR once current?.

Thank you nuvikas for the info.

Trackitt is showing approvals for today i.e. Saturday. Good that USCIS is working on weekends

I saw many China EB2 got approved today with PD as late as March 2007.

It looks like that many EB2 are approved already. After PD March 7, 2007 there should be only 10k demand left.

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Originally Posted by angryclubs

Trackitt is showing approvals for today i.e. Saturday. Good that USCIS is working on weekends

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I saw many China EB2 got approved today with PD as late as March 2007.

It looks like that many EB2 are approved already. After PD March 7, 2007 there should be only 10k demand left.

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qblogfan, are you saying they are claiming that they approval date is today, or they just see the card today in their mailbox. on trackitt, for India, I do see around 8-9 approvals posted by people, which they claim approval date is 7/9 i.e. today saturday.

if indeed, people are getting approval date notifications of today, it means USCIS is working on the weekend. Now, what can we interpret from that.

A thought from me.

The workload is quite high, lots of eligible demand, but also lots of available visas, and they do want to assign as much current people they can, because they know next month, more will be current, and more visas are going to be available. That is why the extra push and effort.

Now, if such was above, then why not just release the visa bulletin on friday, why wait for the inevitable. Maybe there is a good faith rule adhered by them, that they will work n number of work days, and realize a certain pattern of assignment and demand, before they officially release, what is in fact already decided.

Again, this is just my thoughts on the positive side. Of course, the truth is not known to me.

qblogfan, 10k is not much left. I am really hopeful that folks in USCIS, DOS, have realized that adjudication takes time, and they will need to take fresh intake, if they want to give the appropriate spillover to EB2 I/C next year. If they have not realized this, or taken this into account in their policy matters, I am really afraid that next year's spillover, which may not be as high as this year, might go to EB3 ROW and EB2 I/C just get EADs.

From 8th March to mid-Aug'07, there are nearly 11K (few hundred less) EB2-I/C applications that are pending. As seen in the predictions, we might not have another 11K spillover available. The consensus is more towards 8K but no one can exactly say the actual number. We also need to keep in mind that there was a significant number of pending EB2-ROW and EB1 applications from the June data (around 10K EB1 and 9K EB2-ROW). Out of these, a decent percentage of applications is from 2010. So, I will expect those getting approved unless there is any complication with the specific case. The PDs that will be cleared for EB2-I/C will be anywhere between June'07 - Aug'07 (which has been mentioned in earlier posts also).

With all this being said, I do think USCIS needs to advance the dates to 2008 to take in new applications and create a buffer pool. This depends entirely on their policy rather than visa availability; so all we can do is wait for few more days for the Aug bulletin. As Q mentioned in his earlier posts, even if the dates move to 2008 (probably in Sep bulletin, if that happens), it doesn't imply that all pending PDs up to Aug'07 will be cleared as the sole purpose of advancing the dates will be to create the buffer of applications.

nishant2200, I saw several Chinese EB2 got emails today. It looks like they are working on Saturday.

At the same time, a bunch Chinese EB2 got GC in mail without email notification. Around 30 Chinese EB2 reported green today and yesterday.

The PDs range from Oct.2006 to March 2007. The latest one I saw is March 5, 2007.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

qblogfan, are you saying they are claiming that they approval date is today, or they just see the card today in their mailbox. on trackitt, for India, I do see around 8-9 approvals posted by people, which they claim approval date is 7/9 i.e. today saturday.

if indeed, people are getting approval date notifications of today, it means USCIS is working on the weekend. Now, what can we interpret from that.

A thought from me.

The workload is quite high, lots of eligible demand, but also lots of available visas, and they do want to assign as much current people they can, because they know next month, more will be current, and more visas are going to be available. That is why the extra push and effort.

Now, if such was above, then why not just release the visa bulletin on friday, why wait for the inevitable. Maybe there is a good faith rule adhered by them, that they will work n number of work days, and realize a certain pattern of assignment and demand, before they officially release, what is in fact already decided.

Again, this is just my thoughts on the positive side. Of course, the truth is not known to me.

qblogfan, 10k is not much left. I am really hopeful that folks in USCIS, DOS, have realized that adjudication takes time, and they will need to take fresh intake, if they want to give the appropriate spillover to EB2 I/C next year. If they have not realized this, or taken this into account in their policy matters, I am really afraid that next year's spillover, which may not be as high as this year, might go to EB3 ROW and EB2 I/C just get EADs.

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Got the CPO (Card Production Ordered) email yesterday.
Priority Date: 12/27/2006
Country: India
Service Centre: TSC

Thanks to all the gurus who gave us peace of mind, especially Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni001.....I have been following Q and Teddy from immigrationvoice......and I want to thank them for their contribution......all the best to rest of the folks....hope you guys get greened pretty soon.

So far, I see 57 approvals in trackitt for the month of July with 41 of them from TSC and 16 from NSC. Is the distribution of applicants even between these two centers? The # of approvals seem to be biased in favor of TSC over NSC but this might just be a random coincidence.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

nishant2200, I saw several Chinese EB2 got emails today. It looks like they are working on Saturday.

At the same time, a bunch Chinese EB2 got GC in mail without email notification. Around 30 Chinese EB2 reported green today and yesterday.

The PDs range from Oct.2006 to March 2007. The latest one I saw is March 5, 2007.

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Guys, have we seen this earlier, them working on a weekend. Anything we should be happy/concerned about, any thoughts about why they are working on a saturday, if they are.

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Originally Posted by pch053

So far, I see 57 approvals in trackitt for the month of July with 41 of them from TSC and 16 from NSC. Is the distribution of applicants even between these two centers? The # of approvals seem to be biased in favor of TSC over NSC but this might just be a random coincidence.

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pch053,
Both TSC & NSC show almost same number of pre-adjudicated cases. NCS got more 485 receipts and completions in the last two quarters.

Previously, there was a good discussion about the numbers of Trackitt applications for recent movements in the VB.

It noted that these appeared to be lower than the overall numbers for movement in FY2010 and the number of "real world" approvals per Trackitt approval would therefore be higher.

I have added a second running total column to the EB2-I figures at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010

From June onwards it attempts to take account of the number of applications in Trackitt vs the movement in the VB.

Also, as I had noted in the text, CO's comments in the May VB could be interpreted as EB2-I reaching the 7% limit either in March or April. The existing figure uses the more conservative approach, whereas the new column is more aggressive in the interpretation.

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Cum. No. 2 tries to take into account that months that have become Current in FY2011 may have different Trackitt % to the overall FY2010 figure. From June onwards, these become potentially significant. It also assumes that the 7% limit was reached in March 2011. Please recognize that trying to convert Trackitt approvals to total "real world" approvals is an imprecise science.

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Because it assumes that all pending Trackitt cases will be approved (which probably isn't true), it might still understate the real numbers. Be aware of that and accept that it is the best I can do currently. Remember that all the figures are just "best attempts" and subject to quite wide error margins. Please view them with that in mind.

Trackitt trends updated. The trend has deteriorated. The worst case scenario is still May 2007 for EB2I. The best case being Aug 2007. But now I do not think there will be anything given to EB3. Check it out.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Trackitt trends updated. The trend has deteriorated. The worst case scenario is still May 2007 for EB2I. The best case being Aug 2007. But now I do not think there will be anything given to EB3. Check it out.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716

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Q, I'm a little confused, worst case May 2007 for EB2I.... is this for Aug VB or this fiscal year. Thank you.

Both.

Additional movement (if any) in Sep/Oct will be towards intaking additional applications rather than backlog clearance if FY 2011.

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Q, I'm a little confused, worst case May 2007 for EB2I.... is this for Aug VB or this fiscal year. Thank you.

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Yesterday and Friday totally 31 Chinese EB2 got approved.

14 from NSC and 17 from TSC. It looks like both of these two centers are working hard.

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Originally Posted by veni001

pch053,
Both TSC & NSC show almost same number of pre-adjudicated cases. NCS got more 485 receipts and completions in the last two quarters.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Both.

Additional movement (if any) in Sep/Oct will be towards intaking additional applications rather than backlog clearance if FY 2011.

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Q,
This is more for my understanding of USCIS behavior in relation to advancing dates. Lets say we have X spillovers remaining where X can be anything up to 11K with 8K being the average consensus as of now. So, will USCIS advance the dates to advance so that the entire quota of X can be approved in the Aug bulletin itself? Or, will they advance the dates to consume a portion of X (say 80%) in the Aug bulletin and leave the remaining (20%) for the Sep bulletin. I am thinking of this possibility as there are significant number of pending EB1 and EB2-ROW applications even from 2010 and USCIS might exercise some caution while moving the dates.

If we go by last year's movement, the dates advanced by similar amounts in July and Aug bulletin (~5 months) and advanced a bit (albeit much less, ~2 months) for the Sep bulletin. We know this year's situation is different as there is the possibility of dates moving forward for taking in new applications; so, it might not directly correlate to 2010.