Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
So my priority date is EB2-I -August 28, 2009. I should be expecting the date to be current by the end of FY 2019. I missed the opportunity in 2012. So still on H1b
thanks Aceman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
So my priority date is EB2-I -August 28, 2009. I should be expecting the date to be current by the end of FY 2019. I missed the opportunity in 2012. So still on H1b
thanks Aceman
From the limited information provided to us by USCIS/DOS, that sounds about right, good guestimate - lets wait and see.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Are these final action date or filing dates?Quote:
Originally Posted by hope21
I feel Aceman you are being too optimistic. There are so many leftover applications from last year in EB2 and EB3 which will be counted this year. And couple with that about 8000 known EB2 cases beyond current cutoff in 2009. Combine with that EB3s which by my calculation would be around 5K atleast for 2009. With strong chances of downgrading happening EB3 wont get too far ahead of EB2 - if any at all. I would say both Eb2 and Eb3 would reach atmost Aug 2009 for FADs.Quote:
Originally Posted by hope21
I would love to be proven wrong by a month-by-month analysis. The aggregate yearly numbers can be misleading.
It is very interesting on why USCIS would like to honor the filing dates at this point. This shows DOS/USCIS would like to estimate the actual demand of all EB2 and EB3 cases until May 2010.
Remember 8000 known EB2 cases beyond current cutoff in 2009 also contain cases who have approved 140 EB3. Having said that most of the demand might be visible by end of October when USCIS might go back to honoring final action dates.
I heard EB5 will be abolished around end of September. Is this true? if Yes, will there be a spill over to EB2 or EB3?
Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
I don't agree that EB2 2009 Pending inventory contains any EB3s or at least a significant number of it. The dates went past Mar 2009 for EB2 only once in past and the speed they moved with and then retrogressed left little time to file eb2 perm and I140 for any eb3s. I know this because I was there :)
Infact I can imagine a number of EB2s from 2009-10 PDs would be then unmarried ones, who now have additional dependents to file for. (e.g. labor filed in 2009 - age 27; date current in 2012 - age 29-30)
This has been going on since at least FY2012 for both:Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR)
and
Employment Fifth Preference Categories (I5 and R5)
In both cases, they are a subset of the total visas issued under the category.
For EB5, however, almost all of the visas issued are under this sub-category because it requires a $500k, rather than a $1M investment.
Congress has continually reauthorized the programs (often as part of a CR), punting a final decision to others. I expect that to continue.
It's likely that EB5 will eventually be reformed, increasing the $500k currently needed for these sub-groups to $1.3M (just adjusts for inflation since 1990).
I'm not sure that will have much effect.
There's years worth of approvals grandfathered into the old limit and I suspect there are sufficient Chinese who could afford the increased limit.
If it were abolished at the end of FY2018, then maybe there might be a couple of years where there would be SO from EB5 to EB1, who would likely consume it all. After that, there would be enough demand from those willing to invest $1M in the other parts of the EB5 program that are unaffected.
The Certain Religious Workers part of EB4 accounts for about 1k of 10k EB4 approvals each FY. Other retrogressed Countries within EB4 would use any visas freed if the program was abolished.
CO did not mentioned at what rate EB2-I would progress in FY19.Quote:
Originally Posted by newsletter1978
July 485 inventory shows about 1,000 till about March 15th. That's not much and given two more months of SO, that inventory would have been wiped off which is the reason why dates moved in October.Quote:
Originally Posted by excalibur123
Iatiam
There are too many variables here. For one, there are people with multiple PERMS - EB2 & EB3 who have never been current. There are people with multiple petitions in family for spouses. In fact, most of the people I know who have EB3I PDs after 2009 have changed jobs just to upgrade. Whether or not they will upgrade/downgrade is a question time can tell.
Also, people have moved from EB3/EB2 to EB1 as well. Many companies (esp. WITCHes) have used this loophole to their advantage
With due respect to your calculation, when do you think EB3I Mar 2011 will be able to file 485? My spouses H1 expires in Oct,2019 and we are home owners here. Looking at the current H1 rejection trends, we were planning on putting our home for sale next summer but the Oct VB has got us thinking if we should instead put our home for lease instead, if things dont go the right way. Your post also seems very encouraging for people like us. Any educated guesstimate on what to expect for EB3I Mar 2011?Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Justmyself
I have a Feb 2011 PD. My H1 expires in Dec 2019 and I am also an home owner. Selling, leasing a house is all personal depending on personal financial needs and we cannot worry about things not in our control, in my opinion.
So as Spec said in the earlier post we don't have inventory for EB3 I, the following scenario happened for EB2 -I in FY 2012. From Oct-2011 to April -2012, the dates moved from July 2007 through to May 2010. Also as Spec mentioned a Memo gave it the nitro boost at that time..
In 2019, EB3 is not having that nitro boost.
All we can pray for is low EB3-ROW demand for the first few months, and CO will advance the filing date for 3-4 months well into 2011 so that we can file 485. Along with USCIS respecting filing date. :-D Eternal optimist.
I dont expect them to move EB3I past May 2010 in FY19 for sure. Im just looking at the rough estimate for somebody with an early 2011 EB3 date to file for 485. If based on the numbers, there is a possibility of that happening in 2-3 years, it wl help plan what to do with the house. All this while we had assumed it will take minimum 5 yrs but this bulletin has given us some hopes. Im not aware of the expected EB3 numbers in 2010 and your post looked like you had some rough calculations based on the PERM data which is why I put the question here.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Murthy has some interesting tidbits.
https://www.murthy.com/2018/09/21/oc...dia-and-china/
Quote:
Short-Term Predictions for EB3 India
Although there was some speculation of the cutoff date for EB3 India possibly advancing past that of EB2 India, Mr. Oppenheim implies that this probably will not occur. He notes that EB3 India saw relatively rapid advancement in recent months in order to generate demand for next fiscal year. If, as expected, these immigrant visa numbers start getting used, the cutoff date for EB3 India will not be able to advance much.
Quote:
Cutoff Dates in DF Chart to Predict Future Movement
One additional insight provided by Mr. Oppenheim is how he determines what date to list on the DF chart, which typically has more favorable cutoff dates than the FA chart. The dates Mr. Oppenheim sets in the DF chart are where he expects that category’s FA cutoff date to be within the next 8-to-12 months.
Whew!! My PD is May 22, 2009 EB2-I. I really hope filing date for EB-2 moves ahead a little or else I'll have to port back to EB-3. EB2 filing date is stuck on May 22, 2009 since last few months which happens to be my date. I'm sure there other folks in same boat, but this is killing me.
Unfortunately I just ported from EB3 to EB2 last month.
Are traffic tickets need to be reported in new I-485? If so, anyone who filed in 2018 did it?
I don't think anyone expects EB3-I to hit 2012 in FY 19. I don't think it will go back to 2005 either. It's more probable the EB-3 I FAD might end somewhere in 2009 for FY 19. Mostly Oct 1,2009. For EB-2 I, if only annual quota is available, it may not even reach July/August 2009. This is based on July 485 inventory. So the CO's comment was not too off. As a matter of fact if you take FAD, it's the EB-2 that's ahead of EB-3 India now.Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
It remains to be seen how much demand EB3-I generates for 2008/2009. After the spillover rule change(2008?) not many chose to file in EB3-I(There are ratios like 70% EB2 vs 30% EB3). Besides that, the horizontal SO that EB3-I gets in EB3 category will move forward the dates. EB3-I May,2018 final action date was set to Nov 01,2008 and all we got in July EB-3 I inventory,which was released 3 months after May, was only ~500 cases. I think the reason was, post July 2007 and 2008 EB2I dates have been current for more than 5 years where EB3I was stuck somewhere in 2004/2005. So many would have moved jobs/ported who were stuck in EB3-I 2007/2008 PDs. Those may have already obtained GC in EB-2. I think that's the reason we're not seeing too many applications in the July inventory for EB3-I. And, the EB-2 2009 PD people most likely won't downgrade as their dates are pretty close. EB3-I demand is mostly going to be in 2009 rather than 2007/2008 in my opinion.
DudeQuote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
If that is the case then I might need more than 7 pages for I-485. Damn that gas pedal........It is not my fault, it is gas pedal fault. All I did was I stepped on it. :p:p:p:p
All Horizontal SO in EB3 will go to EB3-C until EB3-I inventory is built.
In that case,China has only 71 cases pending in EB3 category as per July bulletin :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
South Korea and Philippines take a huge chunk. I think Philippines will be current in EB3 this FY. South Korea always has a steady demand in both EB2 and 3.Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
EB3 India should get around 10 K if the demand for ROW is low in EB3.
I have a basic question:Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Until recently EB3I was not even getting their own quota. What changed so drastically that we are expecting EB3I to get 10K visas? ( I just want to know what am I missing)
If I vaguely remember (unless my memory has tricked me) , it was demand destruction from nurses abandoning their petitions in EB3-ROW because of the backlog. That is my fear for EB3-ROW. Now that it is current again, what is stopping the nurses from re-applying via consular processing..Quote:
Until recently EB3I was not even getting their own quota. What changed so drastically that we are expecting EB3I to get 10K visas? ( I just want to know what am I missing)
Porting was the only option before. EB3-ROW was also backlogged till 2nd quarter of 2017. EB3 I got 6600 in 2017 and expecting similar numbers in 2018. The biggest consumer of EB3-ROW SO is Philippines and they are expected to be current this FY. Hence my optimism that EB3 I might get 10K.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Perhaps the expiry of H1C visas contributing to less EB3 Philippines workers in US?Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
That was very restrictive visa.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
Only 500 could be issued a year and the number of qualifying hospitals who could sponsor it was very low (about 14 according to Wikipedia).
The validity was for 3 years, non-renewable and once held, the person could never apply for it again.
Most adjustments would be from H1B for specialty nurses, but the vast majority of Filipino nurses in the past were RN who used Consular Processing.
There certainly was a period where EB3 was quite heavily retrogressed for Philippines and many probably abandoned, while others just waited it out. With relatively low wait times currently, I don't see any reason why the numbers would lower, especially as many have become wiser about qualifying at at least the BSN level which allows use of the H1B visa.
Thanks all for chiming in.
At one of the very large bay area company where my friend works, the HR had following reply (after receiving multiple queries):
"They would want to see more data and how (much) it actually benefits employee to switch the priority queue. Then they will formulate a policy and make a decision case by case basis". So I was trying to gauge some early data.
I really really hope that people show diligence and not harm each other's chances by multiple filings in a hurry thus providing excuse to not move dates.
But after years and years of waiting if some people want to take their own chances can't blame them.
This is going to be very interesting FY.. hopefully we get best case scenario for every one.
Lawyer has sent RFE reply (medicals and 325a) and in a single day got alerts RFE response received. How come Uscis working so diligently and will they come to March 2010 at all in FY 2019 ��
Any idea what this new proposed rule of in admissibility on public charge grounds is, when this tsunami will likely hit and how bad?
August CO Visa Issuance data is out.
Here is the 2018 August DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 00 00 01 00 00 00 25 26 EB2 10 01 02 31 85 03 91 229 EB3 011 088 018 356 29 08 345 855 EB4 003 004 000 011 000 003 109 130 EB5 060 033 008 003 027 000 108 239 Total 84 126 029 401 141 014 684 1479
YOD DOS Data total.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 1457 0183 0074 0012 0281 0018 1821 3846 EB2 0089 0069 0042 0370 1149 0032 1358 3109 EB3 0509 0744 0217 4727 0446 0093 3678 10414 EB4 036 188 005 057 036 041 1356 1719 EB5 3782 0348 0066 0012 0438 0658 1934 7238 Total 5873 1532 0404 5178 2350 0842 10147 26326
EB3 Phillipines got the highest chunk in August. Now getting an H1B approval and applying for GC is hard i believe eb3 I would benefit to some extent
Just my thought!!
IIf you happen to find any info let me know... i’m also eagerly waiting for actual verbiage in the memo.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2/eb3
Hi Spec, I sent you a question in your mailbox. Can you please give me some insight?
Greg has posted a detailed summary - if anyone is interested:Quote:
Originally Posted by srisri
http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2018...c-charge-rule/
.
Important part to note is that extensions of status forms will contain these questions - forms I-129 and I-539.
" Aliens must remain self-sufficient
for the entire period of their
stay. DHS will now consider an alien
’
s financial status in determining if the alien has maintained
their current nonimmigrant status. Questions will be added to
the I-129 and I-539 regarding
this. Employers will have to ask their workers about this i
n order to complete the forms."
Don't think any H1B will disqualify but as usual...an added hassle.
Hi Spec and other gurus
what is your take on below Did EB2 India got 8K+ for Fy2018?
Below is inventory for EB2 india
Year October 2017 Report July 2018 Report
2008 - 8258 227
2009 - 8820 10831
2010 - 1763 4677
Total 19466 15826
1. Total count down by 3,600 this is despite increase in number for 2009 & 2010 about 5K in July 2018 inventory. July 2008 numbers for 2009 and 2010 are in sync with earlier reports.
So 5000 + 3,600 = 8,600 got approved.
2. 2008 number reduced to 277 from 8258 This is down by 8000 + in first 3 months of 2009 the number are down from about 3150 to 1300 about 1800 Reduced for Q1 2009. That means 9500 got approved.
Looks like Credit Scores can be used as a criteria for checking financial eligibility. Would this have an impact?Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
Iatiam
Considering trend from last year during Oct\Nov\Dec, every month EB2I Final Action Date was moved by 22 days. If the same trend continues this year, next bulletin date will be 21 Apr and next month after that will be 15 May. My very very optimistic guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
My assessment is that with low to moderate SO and fast movement in EB3I resulting in downward porting the dates for EB2I can move to later part of 2009 (Oct/Nov) in this FY. Worst case scenario is Aug, best is Dec
649, 1429, 1411 are the April, May and June data for India. For FY18 we had counted 3500 EB2 I till July 2018.
From July 2009 through to December 2009 we have another 6000.
The only way I see is absolutely low demand for Eb2-ROW in FY 19 which may result in about 10-12 K SO along with 2900 standard ones. That way EB2 can reach May 1st 2010 by the end of FY 19.