I did get EAD/AP in 2012 - thankfully - removed that stuff from the signature for de-clutter purposes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdesh005
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I did get EAD/AP in 2012 - thankfully - removed that stuff from the signature for de-clutter purposes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdesh005
USCIS processing data trends update with May'14 stats.
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=4&charttype=1
Here is some pointers to note:
1) NSC has become bigger than TSC interms of EB 485 processing volumes
~~~~~~Pending~~~Pre-adj~~~RFE~~~~Completions~~~Receipts
NSC~~~~~51437~~~28827~~~4410~~~~~9685~~~~~~11656
TSC~~~~~39561~~~35416~~~4110~~~~~6828~~~~~~~7828
2) I-140 Completions have been dropped to 33% compare to the last year sametime
Period~~~~~~~~~~~~Total reciepts~~Total Completions
Oct'12 to May'13~~~~~~51564~~~~~~~~60386
Oct'13 to May'14~~~~~~47856~~~~~~~~39428
With this completion rate we can't get more than 70k total I-140 completions in FY'14 by Sep'14 which will be leser than ~18% campare to previous year completions.
YTeleven,
For the spillover season, it is worth noting that TSC still has slightly more preadjudicated cases than NSC (55:45).
It's been clear for a while that the SC have been throttling the system (for whatever reason) by lowering their I-140 completion rates.
In September 2013, only 7.2k I-140 were shown as pending. That has tripled to 23.4k in May 2014 (8 months).
Depending on the makeup of that increased backlog, it has obvious dangers if (when) it is eventually released.
Monthly I-140 receipts year on year remain fairly similar.
This also somewhat reflects in the pending I-485 figures. The number of pending cases at the SC were as low as 43.7k in June 2013 (50.1k in September 2013). That has risen to 91k in May 2014. Of course, NSC and TSC handle more than EB cases.
In March 2014, USCIS reported 119k pending Employment Based cases at the SC, which would have also included preadjudicated cases. The Q3 figures will be interesting, when they are released.
Hi Guru's , Sorry but I am really confused about the news regarding retrogression.
Any possibility that my number will come in the Sept bulletin ? EB2-India NSC | PD: Feb 23, 2009.
Almost certainly yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2EB2
Ahh !! Awesome, Thanks vizcard. Let's hope it does.
And once the bulletin is out, I think it would take 2 months for the card to be shipped ? Is that right ?
when will be the July'14 inventory be released ?
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory
There is no fixed date of release. We are all waiting. It is already past the usual historical date for the event.
Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
The pdf properties show that the July 2013 USCIS Inventory was created on August 7, 2013.
Trackitt suggests it was released on August 9, 2013.
Historically, the Inventory is released about 4-6 weeks later than the period it represents.
If this is about the 485 inventory, is that not released in October?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
that makes me think once the uscis looks at this report in august first week and passes on that info to decide on the demand data/ visa bulletin then they will make it public. :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The USCIS Inventory is updated several times a year.Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
For instance, last FY, there were reports for
October 2012
January 2013
April 2013
July 2013
Since then there have also reports for
October 2013
January 2014
April 2014
See http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory for the full listing.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I've an estimation for I-140 Approvals FY14 as follows:
I-140_Data~~~~Approvals~~~~Pending
FY14-1stHalf~~~~21323~~~~~~24495~~(ACTUALS)
FY14-2ndHalf~~~38777~~~~~~25000~~(PROJECTED)
FY2014~~~~~~~60000~~~~~~25000~~(PROJECTED)
If this turns out to be true then we will have a lowest ever approvals for I-140 with 60k for FY14.
This is a good news for EB2-I as these approvals will effect the spillover from EB1 & EB2-WW to EB2-I.
As you see I've taken a liberal approach to project the figures in FY14-2ndHalf and if we go by the actual figures of 1st half the overall approvals willbe even lower than 60k (may be around 50k) which will give even more spillover to EB2-I.
CAUTION to EB2-I: Since these are just I-140 applications sitting in the system for so many months they can be get released anytime and if that happens in Aug'14 then there is a significant decrease in the spillover to EB2-I as each of these I-140s will consume atleast 2 GCs(assuming corresponding I-485s will get approvals in Sep'14).
In terms of PD, where do you think that this "more" could take us? Any chance to 1Nov2009 -- based on how far in future the RFEs have gone?Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
No new 485 application is getting approved this FY. There's just not enough time left.Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
This has nothing to do with priority dates moving for this FY. CO will look at the approvals (which are slow IMO) and look at the total spillover (which he will know accurately) and move the dates in the Sept VB accordingly. As I mentioned in my previous post, no first time I485 submitted now will be approved in this FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth
Viz,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I'm not worried about new 485 filings..
As of 31-May-2014 there are arounf 26k pending 140 applications.. we don't know how many of these belongs to EB1 & EB2-Row with concurrent filings. If these happens to be major chunk of those pending files and if those 140s get approvals then that will have impact on the COD movement for EB2-I in Sep & Oct 14.
YT,
I would agree with the 60k figure.
That compares to :
FY2013 - 78.1k
FY2012 - 70.0k
FY2011 - 81.3k
I think the liberal approach is probably correct. Both April and May saw a significant upswing in completions compared to previous months.
What is worrying is that although Completions may be low, Receipts are not. The monthly average rate for FY2012 to FY2014 has remained fairly constant at just under 6k per month.
A release of the pending I-140 at this stage probably won't affect FY2014 at all. Even if the I-485 was filed concurrently, the I-485 is increasingly unlikely to be adjudicated in FY2014.
I agree it is helpful to FY2014 numbers for EB2-I.
I do have concerns if a reduction in pending numbers hits FY2015 numbers. That would just pile one more negative onto a pretty bleak outlook.
Spec,
Your concerns about FY2015 are based on the assumption that next year USCIS will work with extra efficiency/resources to clear all pending I140 applications from this year as well as the new applications from the next year...right? But if they go back to their normal speed next year ( say similar to FY2013), then EB2I still stands to receive the spillover amount similar to a normal year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Not sure at this point, if we get spillover similar to FY2013 , but unless we know (at least approximate) % of the filing in each category/country and type, I would not think its 'pretty bleak outlook' (for FY2015 for EB2I)Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Suninphx,
I was using FY2013 as an example of a nomal year! I fixed my original post accordingly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Ok - I see now what you meantQuote:
Originally Posted by vedu
I think it could be unfortunate if you think that FY2013 was a "normal" year in any sense of the word.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
FY2013 followed the fiasco of FY2012, which meant that EB2-WW had rather more approvals than normal.
FY2013 also had 18.5k extra visas due to under use by FB in FY2012.
If you strip away the effect of the FB visas and normalize EB2-WW usage across FY2012/FY2013, then EB2-I would have received an average of about 10.7k approvals per year in FY2012/FY2013, compared to the average of 18.5k actually seen. In fact, because EB2-I received extra visas in addition to those that Spillover from other categories would have allowed, the underlying average number of approvals was just 7.7k per year.
With the likelihood of low numbers of FB visas, increased general use by EB1, EB5 and perhaps slightly higher than normal use by EB2-WW, I don't see much to believe that EB2-I will see the sort of SO that people have become used to and come to expect as "normal".
If FB contribute any visas in FY2015, CO has failed yet again and badly let down the FB community.
Spec,
Sorry...I didn't meant to misrepresent FY2013 to be specifically a normal year. I just wanted to make a point that next year USCIS will have to assign extra workload to existing officers OR employ additional resources to clear the excess backlog of I-140 applications piled this year along with the next year's new applications.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I don't get it. YT says lower 140 approval (?) could mean more spillover for EB2I and you are saying this has got nothing to do with dates moving. How does more spillover have got nothing to do with dates moving this year?Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
vedu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
OK, I understand now.
I'm not convinced USCIS will start reducing the backlog in any serious manner any time soon.
Just returning to a normal level where it doesn't increase will be another factor to increase I-485 approvals beyond the levels seen in FY2014.
The point I was trying to make is that there are a number of different factors that cumulatively could adversely affect the numbers available next FY.
It remains to be seen which ones come to pass.
I can't deny your statement below. But then there is also a possibility that by the end of FY2015, even with less than the normal spillover, EB2I dates will come close to April 2010, and therefore starting October 2015, DOS will have to open the floodgates again to generate the new demand for FY2016...sort of repeat of the 2012 year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
YT,Quote:
Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth
While filing may be done concurrently, the processing of the 485 only starts after the 140 is approved. So for all intents and purposes they are "new" filings.
4WatItsWorth,
YTs statement does not impact spillover for 2014. It will impact spillover for next year.
Latest update on FY14Q3 PERM:
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...Y2014_Q3TD.pdf
FY14Q3 has become 15% bigger than FY13Q3. Looks like FY14 turns out to be another big year same as FY13 in terms of PERM reciepts.
More pain for EB2-I on the long run specifically for 2013 & 2014 applicants.
YT,Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Thanks for the update.
I see that there is a slight change in the format this time. It now shows the % change on the same Qtr from the previous Year. Previously, it was showing the % change on the Year to Date.
Indeed, Q3 FY2014 is 15% higher than Q3 FY2013.
Because Q2 FY2014 was 21% lower than Q2 FY2013, the overall YTD change is 1.6% lower than FY2013.
I also note that the number of pending applications reduced only 3.1k from Q2 to Q3 (5.3%) and still stands at 55.4k.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
So the 64$ question is, how bad the spillover be next year? 6k? or 10k? or could it be zero? I know its too early to take a guess, but from your experience, how does the mounting inventory translate to reduction of SO? Also, what do you think will be a good SO number to prompt CO to open the floodgates again?
Iatiam
Yeah.. when is the next inventory build up expected? With no CIR or no word on EAD for H4. I am starting to lose patience. I can't begin to imagine how frustrating it must be for EB3I.
iatiam,Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
I don't want to speculate just yet. I need some more data points.
Note to the moderator, please move the post to where appropriate. Just wanted to make everyone aware of this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5615465.html
in case if anyone is planning a trip. My wife is stuck in Vancouver for 4 days now, went for H1B stamping, still have not gotten back passport.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AC_1980
This is affecting both immigrant and non-immigrant visa systems world wide.
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/immigrant_visas.html
Thanks a ton AC_1980. I think people planning travel abroad to obtain Visa must pay attention to this and make decisions accordingly.Quote:
Originally Posted by AC_1980
Since the glitch is of global nature - I bet it is also going to affect green card issuance. If it doesn't get resolved (highly unlikely) then it will result in wasted visas. However, if it does get resolved soon, then believe it or not - it will benefit backlogged countries because then all those un-issued permanent visas during glitch might be used for spillover. Just a perspective here - no calculations!
What do you guys think about TSC being very slow this year compared to NSC. There are only handful of approvals from them in Trackitt.... Very Frustrating.
congressional liaisons are on training, not adjudicatorsQuote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
EB based I-485 Application Completions last year.
---------------------------------------------
Month~~TSC~~~~~NSC~~~~~Total Completions
---------------------------------------------
Aug13~~11116~~~14609~~~25725
Sep13~~12018~~~13367~~~25385
Oct13~~11183~~~12817~~~24000
----------------------------------------------
If you see the last year processing data, you will notice that they have worked from Aug'13 thru Oct'13 to process year end applications and they mentioned the following in the Nov'13 DD dated 07-Oct-2013:
I've a strong feeling that they will follow the same trend this year too and continue process thru oct'14 by holding extra cases in pending demand file and allocating the visas later in Oct'14 from FY15 quota.Quote:
The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.
This way they can make sure not to waste a single visa from FY14 quota.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fedupwithgc
There are theories galore! AOs are abducted by aliens!
I think simple fact is TSC is slow, inefficient and swamped with work. As per published data, they take 7+ months for processing I-485s compared to 4 by other Service Centers. Applicants of other categories like K1 are also bemoaning excessive delays at TSC. I believe this trickle business will go on until November and there are no floodgates to be opened here. As you can see trackitt for last year, plenty of applicants in similar situation did not get GCs even as their dates were current for 3-4 months. Heck, NSC is issuing GCs to people who replied RFE 2 weeks ago. Advancing dates aggressively in September will only make matter worse for us TSCers.
SR, InfoPass or Senator/Congressmen, nothing seems to help those who are stuck.