Printable View
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
That is what I am thinking as well.
Sometimes visibility is not a good thing.
CO apparently said the failure to publish the data for July was due to other urgent business and that it would resume.
If the VB isn't being published until next week, it might be a little early to see the Demand Data anyway. It has been provided as late as the 15th of the month.
We'll see, but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see it again this year.
As far as the demand data is concerned, I think it should be fine if they publish it Oct'11 or later. In that case, we will know the demand for the next year. Assuming they have filled in their buffer of new applications by moving the PD to 2008, we will also get a good feel of how the dates might move from May'12 and onwards. I think for this year, we pretty much know that the range of EB2I PDs that will be approved will be anywhere between June'07 - Aug'07.
After following this blog for so many weeks now, I finally took the plunge and registered myself. Like others here, this forum has been an amazing source of hope and fact driven information. Great work Q, Teddy and the others. I follow you guys on IV as well. I'd love to be supremely optimistic but knowing my luck I think I may have to wait for another year for my PD to be current. I'll be the happiest though if my PD becomes current in the next 2 months. I'll be celebrating 11 years iin America on the 26th of this month. The wait has been agonizing but it's been worse for many others. I always re-assure myself that if I am destined to get a green card, I will come what may. If I am not, I won't get one, no matter how hard I try. So why stress over it!!!
I have a similar question however, its slightly reversed. I am currently on H1-B w/ a pd of Nov, '07. My wife is on H4 visa. We are anticipating employment opportunity for my wife and her potential employer has already filed for her H1-B visa. My question is, when my date becomes current, I can file for my I485 along with my wife's application (hopefully she would be on H1-B visa then), Right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Annual IV Waiting List Report document page 8 states that "approximately ninety percent of all Employment preference
immigrants are currently being processed as adjustment of status cases at CIS offices".
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf
EB2IC totals 4,372 which equates to 10% of the total waiting list. The total waiting list (100%) would be 43,720.
But "EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates" Link: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf Updated on 5/10/2011
has 29,600 as the demand.
How can one account for ~14k discrepancy here? Appreciate if you throw more light on this one.
Thanks
immitrickz,Quote:
Originally Posted by immitrickz
The NVC data is based on I-140 numbers received and dependents mentioned on them.
So the 4,372 is for all PDs of approved I-140 up to around October/ November 2010. Although received, most have not been processed to the point that they are considered "documentarily qualified". That only happens as the case approaches becoming Current.
On the other hand, the DOS demand data only shows demand for documentarily qualified cases (up to July/August 2007).
So it is comparing apples with oranges. Unfortunately, the NVC data is not further subdivided into year of PD.
PS It would be worse than you have calculated. For EB2, the CP rate historically is only 1-2%, so 4,372 would actually represent a much higher total figure (although the rate has probably increased for cases post the current backlog).
Calculations from the PERM data suggest, in the worst case, the number of I-485 still to be filed could be double the 44k you mention, although it is probably not quite that high.
Absolutely possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by haripathhi
Hi imechanix,
All the best to you. I am sure that you will be current in this bulletin. BTW, can you pl tell me how much the doctor charged for the entire process?
Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
Spec -
Thanks for the explanation. I am missing something here, not sure what it is :).. I will get back in time..
Are we going to see Aug bulletin today? If yes, by what time in http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html
How does the 6 year rule work here. If someone is in US for more than 6 years on H4 (without applying for I-485), Can they still apply for H1-B? I was in an impression that during H4 to H1B conversion, USCIS also count the number of years one spent on H4.
Thanks
Regarding the domain name change, I voted for Do Nothing. But it doesn't mean literally do nothing. As I said in my earlier post, this forum needs serious SEO. It is really hard to find it via the normal keywords. There is no doubt if you google "q's immigration blog" it comes as number one result. But how a person who doesn't know this website exists can search that way? Common searches would be like "eb2 india predictions 2011, august 2011 visa bulletin, august visa bulletin predictions". None of these brings qesehmk.org on the first page. I am not a SEO pro, but with the little knowledge I have these are some things that will improve the forum's visibility:
1. Use most popular key words as much as possible through out the website (for example in the title, I mean in <title>here</title> helps a LOT. To get an idea look at slickdeals.net title :) )
2. Use meta words, this is a old technique, it helps, but I am not sure how much.
3. Links from other sites (greatly improves SE ranking). To achieve this, let us refer to this forum in all other immigration websites.
4. A relevant url helps a lot, but at this point I wouldn't recommend that. Rather you can register a catchy domain and redirect to here.
5. Use social networks like facebook and twitter. It helps spread the word as well as improving the SE ranking.
6. The homepage needs some work too. A site map kind of thing works really nice. Joomla would be cool and easy.
Also, monitor the ranking closely: http://www.alexa.com/search?q=www.qesehmk.org. If you see, currently "Sites Linking In" is 1. That needs to be improved.
I will ask and let you know.....:DQuote:
Originally Posted by kpt112107
How does the 6 year rule work here. If someone is in US for more than 6 years on H4 (without applying for I-485), Can they still apply for H1-B? I was in an impression that during H4 to H1B conversion, USCIS also counts the number of years one spent on H4.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks
Really appreciate your suggestions. I will try to work on them and get back to you.
p.s. - Meta tags is a really big thing we are missing. The SEO score is 1 out of 100 as far as meta tags is concerned. I do not know how to insert meta tags and where.
We already facebook connected. pls see at the top. But people are yet to adopt it in a big way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sssbpgmgc
That used to be the case up until 2006.Quote:
Originally Posted by harick
Time in H4 or L2 no longer counts towards the 6 year limit.
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2007,0116-mehta.shtm (Article)
http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/...-admission.pdf (USCIS Memo)
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_122006.html (Article)
Does L1 period counts even after moved from L1 to H1?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q, Thanks for upadating the information on the first page.
A typo and some comments.
EB3-M at Jul-11 must be a typo. It can't be more than EB3-ROW, which is at Jan-06.
You are optimistic today - August 2007 in the August VB! Do you have insider knowledge you aren't telling us about? ;)
EB3 Silver Lining. Perhaps you should show the date in the table without any spillover.
As you know, many people do not believe that any spillover to EB3 will go to EB3-I, but rather to EB3-ROW. Maybe the text should reflect the ambiguity of the interpretation and just mention where each would end up if they received the spillover (unlikely as it seems).
Oh Spec .... sorry for all the typos. You are my only serious reader it seems!!! Let me fix them ASAP.
p.s. - The Jul 11 date for EB3 mexico is supported by analysis. There just isn't enough demand there. but still DoS has held those dates back. I do not know why? Check it out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Believe me, I know how difficult it is updating existing text and tables!
Two pairs of eyes are better than one!
Looking at EB3-ROW progress, I think they will struggle to reach 2006. In the worst case, they probably won't get beyond November 2005 IMO and EB3-M will probably catch them up.
Similarly, EB3-I don't appear to have much prospect of moving beyond May-02.
EB3-C based on recent progress might reach August-04 but I don't have any data on them, so it is trend based. Depending how many visas they have already used, they might slow or stop.
PS No doubt I will now be proved to be an idiot!!
EB3-M is an enigma. They never appear to have much demand, but they still managed to use 7,740 visas last year. Despite that, their USCIS Inventory figures in June 2011 are still higher than they were in December 2009. I have given up trying to analyze them! In any case, by law, they cannot have a Cut Off Date later than ROW.
My impression was that until all countries reach their Max(2800, 7% FB-EB) limit, there are no excess visas available for backlog reduction. Since in EB2, all countries except India and China are current, any SOFAD goes to I/C in order of PD. In EB3, individual countries have additional demand while they are below 7% country limit - so any SOFAD there will go to them first. Once there is no demand from countries still within the 7% cap, then any further available visas will go to EB3I/C depending upon PD. At least in my mind this is pretty much resolved. I think the confusion is because of the term ROW - there is no queue called ROW - there are only individual country queues that are labeled in aggregate for convenience.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
That would be my position as well, although not everybody does agree with that interpretation, so I have to acknowledge that.
I put my reasoning in the FAQ http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs Post #16
I agree that the aggregating of 100+ Countries into a single group can make it difficult for people to understand the concept and the application of the law as they think of ROW as if were a Country.
Teddy, thanks I actually didn't look at Trackitt yet. I've been looking at the pending I-485 inventory list released by USCIS on June 1, 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf
As you can see in the list, there is a significant number in 2006 (15,000 +) that have not been granted a visa number, yet DoS went ahead and advanced the date to March 2007. All of us know that USCIS doesn't work strictly on FIFO basis, they've approved applications randomly although within the confines of visa bulletin.
I guess, CO must be thinking what a jerk USCIS is, I better move the dates ahead otherwise these guys because of their random picking/approvals, will waste visas.
That theory above should lead CO to advance the dates much farther then the numerical analysis suggests...just a thought.
Maybe that's why they've stopped releasing demand data because they'll look stupid. The demand data will dictate that there is demand from prior year, but yet DoS advanced the dates (because of inefficiency of USCIS).
Perfect. That's my understanding too.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
quick question from the first page predictions: under EB3 Silver Lining :Because of the unusual slowdown in EB1 / EB2 ROW processing, EB2IC will be almost completely cleared. In the best case scenario some SOFAD will actual go to EB3 (2-3K).
So this means that EB2IC will be completely cleared till Aug 17th 2007 (atleast prediction) ? the reason why i ask this is if i am not wrong all applications which are pre-adjuciated under eb2 until Aug 17 2007 needs to be cleared before any spillover to EB3.
I believe that although the inventory was dated as June 1st it was created much before. Folks on this forum and others were able to find it much before. So looks like even the May bulletin current cases appear on this document. To have a clearer idea we will have to wait for the next inventory or demand data. The approvals for July are now pouring in so we can have high hopes for August; typically 90-95% of those who are current are getting approved in the same month.Quote:
Originally Posted by pg_at_q
July bulletin is already in the archive, don't know since when. Seems like they already decided what they are going to put on, just matter of wait and watch. Hopefully monday or tuesday.
That is teh correct - it is a decent possibility - the average case scenario is mid july 2007 (teddy spec probably are thinking Jun 2007).
Of course the recently filed 485s (or the PWMBs) won't be cleared by Sep 2011. But the backlog could be cleared.
Another thing to remember is that backlog clearance is one thing .... but the dates could still move ahead and then come back. So date movement especially in sep-oct-nov is not necessarily tied to visa availability.
Quote:
Originally Posted by July2007PD
@spec - Looks like the way EB3 ROW is moving this year M & P may even exceed last year. I completely agree with you on the spillover logic. The version that you have in facts and data was even quoted by Sangiano recently. Unfortunately EB3-I is in a terrible situation they however did not lose anything though in the change of interpreation it w going to EB3-ROW earlier now EB2 I/C.
@q - I personaly believe that the version of fall down that spec has incase of a default the numbers will go to EB3 ROW is the correct one, maybe you would like to review thefirst post in light of that. Whether this situation of fall down will happen is another question the probability of that happening is less as we all are in agreement that true SOFAD left is ~ 8K and USCIS has a stockpile of EB2 ROW and EB1 Apps the totals are unprecedented atleast in the alst couple of years. I see that you have a probability of 30% for this scenario IMHO probably its only 10%. Another point to note is EB2 ROW aprovals are also coming quite regularly on Trackitt besides EB2 I.
My belief is that we will reach 01-JUN-2007 in the August bulletin and in the Sep bulletin there won't be much of movement and around 2K SOFAD will be left if there are a few more numbers then the dates may go to 15th Aug 2007 to make every pre - adjudicated case approvable. Personally Iam hoping that the dates cross Jul but honestly the chances are 50-50.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am going to repost this, since it was a later edit in a previous post and may not have been seen.
The THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf mentions this (at the very end).Quote:
EB3-M is an enigma. They never appear to have much demand, but they still managed to use 7,740 visas last year.
Despite that, their USCIS Inventory figures in June 2011 are still higher than they were in December 2009 and the DOS Demand figures are only 500 less in June 2011 than March 2010 [the first available]).
I have given up trying to analyze them! In any case, by law, they cannot have a Cut Off Date later than ROW.
Therefore, EB3-M cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB3-ROW, however few remaining cases they might (or might not) have.Quote:
Note that visa availability cut-off dates for oversubscribed areas may not be later than worldwide cut-off dates, if any, for the respective preferences.
But wouldnt the USCIS atleast try to advance the dates in Sep 2011 so as to get some new applications in the pipeline and not have their employees sitting idle. This way they will atleast have some I-485 work to do end-of-2011/early 2012. I think for the past 4 years all they were working on were applications submitted on/before July 2007. Now since it's likely that everyone falling in that category will be allocated a visa, there are going to be almost 0 items in their queue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Do we still believe in here that Sangiano and Spectator are different? I am surprised. I believe they are same and share same level of knowledge and have similar writing style. I may be wrong but that is what I assumed through out this never ending immigration journey on this wonderful website. i beleive that is why we (atleast me) do not know his PD.:). At end of the day it's all good, he is doing wonderful job and I admire his knowledge and passion.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Although we would like to think that we are the center of USCIS's world - we are actually a very small part of their caseload. There are more than 1 million green cards issued every year - EB accounts for only 140K of it. FB is much more important to USCIS from a workload point of view than is EB. Add to it the many millions of AOS requests, H1B Extensions, AP/EAD etc - and EB GC is a very small part of what USCIS does.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gchopeful123
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Agree about August, but I believe DOS must move the dates beyond August 2007 in the September 2011 VB.
Otherwise, once we are in FY2012, the initial limits apply and DOS will be constrained by only moving as far as the 253rd applicant to whom a visa is available in a month, or 758th if you consider the quarter as a whole.
Existing PWMB and Porting cases from FY2011 movement that are adjudicated in FY2012 can use up that number.
It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.
As has been pointed out, moving the dates in September 2011 gives the maximum possible time to preadjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in FY2012.
That, in part, is why I don't think they want complete transparency about the actual demand left to fulfil.
Another viewpoint at least.
Is trackitt down for everyone?
Creating pipeline is imperative but it is totally upto the agencies when they wan't to create it. Even at the end of FY2011 i.e. Sep bulletin even if they don't do it most likely they will be able to follow all the rules. I believe they must defintely create it by Q2 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by gchopeful123
Spec's brilliance, hard work, thoroughness and details can be matched only by a few people. I will leave it to him to answer if both he and Sangiano are the same :). I also note a good deal of similarity between what they both say maybe the reason is that both of them are mostly correct and match up. I greatly appreciate Spec's work like all of us, Sangiano is considered to be very thorough and knowledgeable on Trackitt so it was a compliment to Spec that his postings are being quoted outside of our blog as well. Thanks to Spec on enriching all of us, he is a unique and rare combination of tireless work, brilliance and thoroughness.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
Looks like trackitt I-485 tracker http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigrat...ackers/i485-eb has crashed. Too many approvals/sms at once? :D
Spec thanks for posting this, this is good information I believe you posted it earlier as well. So in reality it’s legally untenable to move the dates to have say a year’s worth on intake in early / mid FY 2012. Let’s hope then it happens in September because otherwise if the fresh intake is delayed to Q3 / Q4 2012 there will be insufficient time to adjudicate the newly filed EB2 cases. Let’s wait and watch really looks like the coming 2 VB's will be really interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
yup. crashed.Quote:
Originally Posted by angryclubs