EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec, how did you arrive at 4.5K actual approvals for EB2IC YTD. IF you used some factor then what do you think is the margin of error?

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I am using the Trackitt % from last year. I adjusted EB2-I to account for CO's statement that the limit was reached at the end of April, but I was within a few visa numbers anyway.

The EB2-I number is pretty accurate I think. China isn't very well represented, so the error margin is wider for them.

PS I'm off into the wilds with no internet access shortly. I'll be back late Monday and will update everything then, including adding that thread in the FACTS & DATA section (unless I get eaten by a bear or bitten by a poisonous snake).

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...71&charttype=1

can we just predict from the I-140 approvals,instead of crunching the perm data etc. If i add up the data of I-140 approvals from oct 2010 thru march 2011, total approvals are around 72638

Multiply this number by some ratio which represents eb1 and eb-row demand, may be we can get estimated spillover going forward. what do u guys think, do you guys see any flaws using this approach.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

They are always available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010 in the FACTS & DATA section.

I try to update them on at least a daily basis, but since they are edits, they won't show up as updated. You have to look.

EB2-ROW at the end of May (with a few stragglers probably yet to appear) has reached this stage:

EB2-ROW --------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ---------- 36 ----- 55 ---- 361 ---- 359 --- 99.45% --- 16,270 --- 115.06% --- 119.42%

EB2-INDIA

EB2-INDIA ------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ----------- 3 ---- 151 ---- 262 ---- 342 -- 130.53% ---- 5,019 --- 182.89% --- 210.71% Increase in May of 2,216 visas over April

If you mean the actual chart, I posted previously, I think the forum will get messy if I keep posting those. I might consider adding it to the thread above, but it means uploading files on a regular basis, something I would rather avoid.

As a one off, here is the daily breakdown of EB2-I approvals in May (to date) :

01-May -- 0
02-May - 14
03-May - 23
04-May - 19
05-May - 14
06-May -- 2
07-May -- 0
08-May -- 0
09-May - 14
10-May -- 7
11-May -- 9
12-May -- 7
13-May -- 8
14-May -- 4
15-May -- 1
16-May -- 1
17-May -- 3
18-May -- 3
19-May -- 2
20-May -- 2
21-May -- 0
22-May -- 0
23-May -- 2
24-May -- 2
25-May -- 0
26-May -- 6
27-May -- 4
28-May -- 0
29-May -- 0
30-May -- 1
31-May -- 3

Total - 151

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wow dude...you are awesome... i guess all we have to do is ask you questions...you already have the calculations done on so many things...

On other note, i was wondering why we are not projecting EB1 spillover to > 20K. I see only half as many EB1 approving this year in comparision... also for EB2 ROW M P, i see the trend very similar or little more than last year... here too we are estimating less numbers...

I believe we will have atleast 8K more from EB1, 8K from ROW and 10K from EB4/5... positively looking forward for 26K (atleast 24K) more excluding 12K previously from EB1 and 5800 combined for EB2 I/C regular quota... any comments guys?

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Originally Posted by soggadu

On other note, i was wondering why we are not projecting EB1 spillover to > 20K. I see only half as many EB1 approving this year in comparision... also for EB2 ROW M P, i see the trend very similar or little more than last year... here too we are estimating less numbers...

I believe we will have atleast 8K more from EB1, 8K from ROW and 10K from EB4/5... positively looking forward for 26K (atleast 24K) more excluding 12K previously from EB1 and 5800 combined for EB2 I/C regular quota... any comments guys?

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EB1 spillover >20K? ;) :D:o Too much of expectation will lead to disappointment.

Q has observed rightly that USCIS and DoS have the capability to do whatever they want to do. This time, USCIS and DoS seem to be kind to India based EB category applicants and seem to be determined to clear major portion of the backlog. Thanks to USCIS and DoS for moving the EB2 IC dates.

Let us expect reasonably and avoid disappointment later. I am a firm believer of destiny and in my belief, one gets GC when he is destined to get GC.

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Originally Posted by neospeed

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...71&charttype=1

can we just predict from the I-140 approvals,instead of crunching the perm data etc. If i add up the data of I-140 approvals from oct 2010 thru march 2011, total approvals are around 72638

Multiply this number by some ratio which represents eb1 and eb-row demand, may be we can get estimated spillover going forward. what do u guys think, do you guys see any flaws using this approach.

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neospeed,
Please check i140 Data&Calculations link

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

EB1 spillover >20K? ;) :D:o Too much of expectation will lead to disappointment.

Q has observed rightly that USCIS and DoS have the capability to do whatever they want to do. This time, USCIS and DoS seem to be kind to India based EB category applicants and seem to be determined to clear major portion of the backlog. Thanks to USCIS and DoS for moving the EB2 IC dates.

Let us expect reasonably and avoid disappointment later. I am a firm believer of destiny and in my belief, one gets GC when he is destined to get GC.

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I too believe in that... But as Q says an informed mind calm the nerves... Is there a specific reason or calculation which would prevent 20k from EB1? Just want to know if I am missing something here...

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Originally Posted by veni001

neospeed,
Please check i140 Data&Calculations link

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Thanks for the link. From the above link

From FY 2011(Q1+Q2) data EB1 i140 Receipts = 42,096 - 35,204 = 6,892

This can be converted to 6,892 * 2 (dependents) = 13784 and i think we need add for one more quarter which comes around 20,000 ( approx). And i don't think cis will be able to process the last quater applications ( i-140 + I-485). So we should have at least 20k spillover from eb1. what do you guys think?.

There was about 7.5K unprocessed EB1 Q from last year. You need to subtract that from your number.

Secondly for EB1 the 140:485 ratio could be slightly less than 2. So overall 13-18K is possible. I think 18K and above would be pushing it a bit too much.

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Originally Posted by neospeed

Thanks for the link. From the above link

From FY 2011(Q1+Q2) data EB1 i140 Receipts = 42,096 - 35,204 = 6,892

This can be converted to 6,892 * 2 (dependents) = 13784 and i think we need add for one more quarter which comes around 20,000 ( approx). And i don't think cis will be able to process the last quater applications ( i-140 + I-485). So we should have at least 20k spillover from eb1. what do you guys think?.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by neospeed

Thanks for the link. From the above link

From FY 2011(Q1+Q2) data EB1 i140 Receipts = 42,096 - 35,204 = 6,892

This can be converted to 6,892 * 2 (dependents) = 13784 and i think we need add for one more quarter which comes around 20,000 ( approx). And i don't think cis will be able to process the last quater applications ( i-140 + I-485). So we should have at least 20k spillover from eb1. what do you guys think?.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

There was about 7.5K unprocessed EB1 Q from last year. You need to subtract that from your number.

Secondly for EB1 the 140:485 ratio could be slightly less than 2. So overall 13-18K is possible. I think 18K and above would be pushing it a bit too much.

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neospeed,
As Q mentioned you need to account for ~7.5k EB1-485 pending as of 10-01-2010 to this demand. EB1-140 to 485 ratio is averaging about 1:1.43 and also we need to account denial/rejections (~20%?)

Which means
EB1 demand = (6,892*1.5)*0.8*2.43 +7.5k = 27.7k which gives 12.3k spillover

also we have seen EB1 pending inventory went up by ~2.5k from Oct 2010 to June 2011, assuming this will continue then we are talking about 15k spillover from EB1 for full year!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

http://icert.doleta.gov/#fragment-2

PERM Processing Times (as of 05/31/2011)

Analyst Reviews - April 2011
Audits - July/August 2010
Appeals - October 2008 (Now renamed Reconsideration Requests to the CO)
Gov't Error - Current

The progress on clearing the Audit cases is stunning. In the last 2 months the time has come down from 25 months to 10 months. By next month they will be effectively cleared.

We often criticize agencies for inefficiencies, but over the last 2 years, DOL have done a great job in clearing the backlog of regular case and now the audit cases. Praise where praise is due.

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Spec,
Which is good news. FY2011Q1&Q2 PERM data alone shows that DOL cleared about 28k prior years(2005-2010) PERM cases.

What does I485 % approval means from this Processing Statistics Data Sheet

veni, i think the author means %approved (assuming 100% signifies the application receipts).

Do you think the author is looking at hte publicly availably data on USCIS dashboard. but that only goes back 2.3 years max. Wonder how come he has gotten data as far back as 2001!

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Originally Posted by veni001

What does I485 % approval means from this Processing Statistics Data Sheet

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

veni, i think the author means %approved (assuming 100% signifies the application receipts).

Do you think the author is looking at the publicly available data on USCIS dashboard. but that only goes back 2.3 years max. Wonder how come he has gotten data as far back as 2001!

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Q,
That's what i was wondering about when i came across this post (updated 06/05/11), and not able to access the forum post for details!

Also I485 approval % for Nebraska and Texas is averaging about 81% & 64% or collectively about 73%(2002-2010), i believe majority of I485's come from EB only?

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Do you think the author is looking at the publicly available data on USCIS dashboard.

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I think the way they are aggregating data is brute force. Looking up case status of each case number. You know the first three letters are WAC, SRC, LIN or EAC, the next two numbers are the year - 11 for FY 2011 etc. Total number is 3 alphabets+ 2 digits of the year + 8 more digits.

So I think they went brute force querying every possible case in the system.

This is just my guess.

I remember a dude on Chinese forum had written a script that will query the system. He collected the output and scanned it for keywords like I-485, I-140, received, approved, mailed etc and built statistics.

I don't know if you guys want to go that route and overwhelm USCIS server. :p

PS: I guess they have already built that script. Check out http://www.immigrationwatch.com/immi_predict_form.jsp

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Originally Posted by kd2008

I think the way they are aggregating data is brute force. Looking up case status of each case number. You know the first three letters are WAC, SRC, LIN or EAC, the next two numbers are the year - 11 for FY 2011 etc. Total number is 3 alphabets+ 2 digits of the year + 8 more digits.

So I think they went brute force querying every possible case in the system.

This is just my guess.

I remember a dude on Chinese forum had written a script that will query the system. He collected the output and scanned it for keywords like I-485, I-140, received, approved, mailed etc and built statistics.

I don't know if you guys want to go that route and overwhelm USCIS server. :p

PS: I guess they have already built that script. Check out http://www.immigrationwatch.com/immi_predict_form.jsp

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That would be really great!

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Originally Posted by veni001

That would be really great!

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Veni, remember that their approval percentage absolutely misleading.

I think this is how they calculate it. Say you have 100 cases dated 2011. Of that 64 have status as received, 30 as approved, 3 as rfe and 3 as denied. Then they calculated approval percentage as 30%.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Veni, remember that their approval percentage absolutely misleading.

I think this is how they calculate it. Say you have 100 cases dated 2011. Of that 64 have status as received, 30 as approved, 3 as rfe and 3 as denied. Then they calculated approval percentage as 30%.

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kd2008,
If that is true then we can not rely on this data(% approvals). But, looking at Nebraska data, considering higher EB1 denial/rejections, looks acceptable?

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Originally Posted by veni001

kd2008,
If that is true then we can not rely on this data(% approvals). But, looking at Nebraska data, considering higher EB1 denial/rejections, looks acceptable?

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No, its not. The numbers on this page http://www.immigrationwatch.com/usci...tatistics.html are actually links. If you click on them, you will see more detailed percentages like the one I talked about.

Have a look at http://www.immigrationwatch.com/rout...I485&year=2010 This link shows they have numbers till June only. So it raise more questions.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

No, its not. The numbers on this page http://www.immigrationwatch.com/usci...tatistics.html are actually links. If you click on them, you will see more detailed percentages like the one I talked about.

Have a look at http://www.immigrationwatch.com/rout...I485&year=2010 This link shows they have numbers till June only. So it raise more questions.

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kd2008,
Thanks, forum links are working now!

a person I know, with PD oct10 2006, received approval today

looks like, CIS can approve all the backlog in 1-2 months if there are enough visa numbers

That is interesting. I would also like to bring this to your attention that 2 of my friends who have PDs in November 2006 and December 2006 got thier I-485 approvals last year when thier PDs are not current. They did not report it as they were happy to get it earlier. Is this possible and do we have such anomolies figured in our calculations.


"My Mistake please ignore. If they are already processed they will not show up in the inventory anymore"

GCDespo, Thanks. I do believe such analmolies exist and are rare. They do not figure in our calculations but consider this ... them getting means somebody else not getting it since teh visa number is limited. So the overall date projection of backlog clearance still holds.

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Originally Posted by GCDespo

That is interesting. I would also like to bring this to your attention that 2 of my friends who have PDs in November 2006 and December 2006 got thier I-485 approvals last year when thier PDs are not current. They did not report it as they were happy to get it earlier. Is this possible and do we have such anomolies figured in our calculations.


"My Mistake please ignore. If they are already processed they will not show up in the inventory anymore"

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Originally Posted by bieber

a person I know, with PD oct10 2006, received approval today

looks like, CIS can approve all the backlog in 1-2 months if there are enough visa numbers

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Perhaps you meant, all "pre-adjudicated" backlog. If the case has not been pre-adjudicated, it takes about 3 months.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

GCDespo, Thanks. I do believe such analmolies exist and are rare. They do not figure in our calculations but consider this ... them getting means somebody else not getting it since teh visa number is limited. So the overall date projection of backlog clearance still holds.

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Q,

Also, these anamolies are nearly negligible in number. There are also arguments such as cross-chargeability, etc., which lead to these genuine approvals. Nevertheles, anamolies such as approvals outside of current priority date is perhaps less than 0.001%

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
That's what i was wondering about when i came across this post (updated 06/05/11), and not able to access the forum post for details!

Also I485 approval % for Nebraska and Texas is averaging about 81% & 64% or collectively about 73%(2002-2010), i believe majority of I485's come from EB only?

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EB I-485s are processed in Nebraska Service Center and Texas Service Center only, since 2008. Earlier to that they were also processed in California and Vermont.

So if one wants to analyze EB I-485 data, then he/ she needs to analyze NSC and TSC data only.