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The usual EB quota is indeed 140K. For 2020 it is 156,500. You can find it in the latest visa bulletin. The spillover goes from EB4/5 to EB1 -> EB2 -> EB3.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLureoftheGreen
We have explained the origin of the technical allocation above as well as a rough way to think about it. But of course there are finer ways to arrive at a realistic number and we would like to keep it a trade secret.
Hope this helps.
The June visa bulletin is out.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...june-2020.html
It does show the impact of CP shutdowns in consulates abroad. Across the board we see movement. But it is more pronounced for EB1-India that moved almost an entire year due to the extra visas available in EB1 as well as potential spillover from EB4/5. EB3-India has bigger movement compared to EB2-India because EB3-I has relatively more number of people seeking GC via CP rather than AOS.
Overall a positive bulletin - not quite satisfactory for EB2-India though.
We have updated the forecast model at www.whereismygc.com with the following changes.
1) EB1 India demand correction (we underestimated demand. demand increased)
2) EB3 ROW demand correction (we underestimated demand. demand increased)
3) Covid consular processing halt (moderate positive impact in 2020, significant impact in 2021) (please see this post for detailed discussion). Now we feel confident that the numbers are there to be applied to we updated that directly in our model.
Finally, EB3 Mexico Vietnam Philippines dates are retrogressed. We think there is some funny business going on there. There is no way EB3 Mexico has enough EB demand to be retrogressed. So we don't want to make any forecast for those categories.
Has the latest bulletin been included in whereismygc forecast?
The bulletin has moved generally in line with our predictions. We expect more movement. As long as USCIS does not shut down/furlough, we believe there will be more movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
Are we updating the model to reflect the current extension of the ban until 12/31? If yes, when can we expect it? Thanks.
The latest work visa restrictions won't have any immediate impact on GC forecast. But if the consulates remain closed through Sep then we may be updating the model with additional 3 months of extra data. That could be huge not just this year but also next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
I thought the ban on FB GCs processed through consulates are also extended until 12/31. Here is the excerpt from yesterday's proclamation. It clearly says the EO - 10014 (April EO) is extended and expanded now with the addition of non-immigrant visas. Together this ban is extended till 12/31/20 subjected to review every 30 to 60 days until then -Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) (8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a)) and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, hereby find that the entry into the United States of persons described in section 1 of Proclamation 10014, except as provided in section 2 of Proclamation 10014, and persons described in section 2 of this proclamation, except as provided for in section 3 of this proclamation, would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and that their entry should be subject to certain restrictions, limitations, and exceptions.
We will go through the EO carefully and determine if this warrants extension from GC point of view. Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
We did look at the new Trump Executive Order (the second EO). It will have positive impact on backlogged EB candidates should the administration choose to apply the extra numbers to the backlog.
The visa services were affected since Mar 20, 2020. The first proclamation came into effect on Apr 22, 2020. Thus the first period is approximately 3 months. The second proclamation came into effect on June 22 and will be in effect through Dec 2020 giving a total 6.25 months of USCIS fiscal year 2020 impact.
We have baked 3 months into our forecast. But will only provide you guidance on the total 6.25 months just to stay conservative and pragmatic. Additionally, the extension of immigration pause into fiscal 2021 does create the possibility of FB->EB spillover in 2022. But we are going to ignore that too and keep it simple and conservative.
Here are two scenarios. Adjust the 2020 and 2021 visa availability in WhereismyGC as follows:
The first as we said is baked into the forecast. The second is what you can try on your own.
Simulation 1 - Effect of 3 month pause on immigration. (already baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 162,963
2021 visa availability - 181,562
Simulation 2 - Effect of 6.25 month pause on immigration. (NOT baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 169,965
2021 visa availability - 226,587
Is this implied that EB category is going to get 162,000 visas this FY? How is it
possible when max EB can get is 156,000?
Not sure if I follow your question. Whats the basis of your 156K maximum??Quote:
Originally Posted by EB32010
Excellent question. Indeed the max this year is about 156K. So in reality that's how much will be allocated. But our algorithms have no way to stop CP allocation as of now. So in order to get around that limitation we have to top off the current annual quota with spillover quota. Accordingly we have also adjusted the next year's number to simulate a realistic allocation.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB32010
Hope this answers your questions.
140k (this years allocation) + 16k (from FB last year).Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
It did. Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
In-spite of the increased availability due to the extended shutdown. I notice my predicted current date (PD 11/09/2009) did not advance at all. Is this due to most of the visa allocation occurring at the end of the year? Apologize if this is an elementary question.Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
This is a good question. The answer unfortunately is as of now our algorithms can't stop CP demand. We never really envisioned the entire consulate shutoffs worldwide. So we invented a workaround to increase supply just enough. Any spillover one must understand goes to various different categories which most are backlogged. So the share coming to EB-I will be less anyway at least this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by bodhi2000
Our guess is for people with dates in 2010 there will be marked improvement.
If we figure out even better way to simulate , we will let you all know.
Here is a bit more nuanced answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by bodhi2000
EB3 is retrogressed across all countries vs EB2 which is only retrogressed across India and China.
Since any extra CP visas must be consumed within retrogressed countries first (and within the country limit) they may not be available for other countries to use.
That's why comparatively EB3 will see modest movement this year compared to EB1 or EB2. Next year will bring significant movement across all categories.
Yes, I get that. However I fall under EB2 and the predicted date for EB2 seems a little out off. But then i am no expert! Hoping for the best. ThanksQuote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
Send us an email in case you have further questions.Quote:
Originally Posted by bodhi2000
Happy 4th of July to all.
Take 20% off on all plans at www.whereismygc.com
Available today only.
A deal has been reached between Senator Durbin and Senator Lee on S386.
Here is a summary. You can read details at Greg Siskind's Blog.
We will do a major rehaul to WhereismyGC if this bill passes. Stay tuned!
Summary
- Visa caps will be removed from Emp Based Categories from USCIS year 2022 onwards (i.e. Oct 2021 onwards)
- Children will be protected as long as the 485 was filed before they turned 21
- All EB applicants can file 485, 2 years after they have an approved 140.
- Other miscellaneous provisions to tackle H1B abuse.
We think this is a great compromise with a very good chance to pass.
Good luck to all.
It almost passed having both co-sponsors agreeing to it. But one of the GOP senators objected and thus killed it for now.
Dear All,
Before October we will be introducing recurring monthly and recurring annual subscriptions.
The new plans will be priced at $7.95 per month and $74.95 per year. There will be no contracts.
All existing customers will be able to move to new plans and be eligible for a prorated refund on old plans.
We just want to do our bit to help during these challenging times. These are exciting times as well since potentially over 100K new visas might be available next year.
Stay tuned and god speed to your freedom.
www.whereismygc.com
Expected date for the new plans to be available - Sep 30th, 2020.
We will update this post if there are changes. Apologies for the delay.
Since in 2021 we expect 240K EB visas, people have been asking how that will affect their own chances. Please see the steps below.
1. Log in to www.whereismygc.com
2. On your dashboard click on iForecast
3. You will arrive at "iForecast (Self Service Green Card Forecast)" screen. There under "Available visas for 2021", enter 240000.
4. Click submit. It will let you know what difference it can make for your own PD.
The DoS has published the Oct 2020 VB.
It is important to note that in light of the anticipated 100K extra visas available for EB this year. the DOS seems to be in a mode to build inventory. They are allowing people to file 485 as far as following dates.
485 filing dates India China EB1 Sep 20 Sep 20 EB2 May 11 Oct 16 EB3 Jan 15 Jun 18 EB5 C Dec 15
Chinese EB5 hasn't moved much, thus indicating very solid EB5 demand from China.
Congratulation for those able to file 485.
p.s. - It is reasonable to believe that we might see filing dates moving even further to generate more demand/backlog to be processed. We imagine that DoS might move them further once they know the real magnitude of EB demand as well as spillover from last year.
There is no change in iforecast even after i enter the 240000 (or 256000) Available EB visa data. However changing the number by 10X up or down does generate a change in the iforecast. Am i making a mistake in my inputs?
The graph shows a steady allocation of 461 visa each month till August. Is this due to the assumption that spillover will be applied in Aug & Sept only?
Hi Bookworm,Quote:
Originally Posted by bookworm
Our algorithms mimic how USCIS and DOS work. They do not apply any extra visas to backlogged countries before Q4. However you can use iForecast and see how the behaviour will change if you use early spillover (which we can;t rule out).
Right now the model is not set for 2021 year. We will do so on Oct 1st 2020. However you can still forecast how the 100K extra visas might move dates. Just update 2021 quota to 240K.
If that is not showing you any improvement, it is possible you might be doing something wrong. In that case, send us details of what you are doing your PD etc by email and if possible include a screenshot.
Thank you Q. Most likely user error. I did update the "Enter Available EB Visas" to 240000 and also "Choose Spillover Months" to all months. However no change in the date :(Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
I will wait for the Oct 1 update and if have followup questions email through the mailbox.
You don't have to wait. But that's ok. If you change your mind, just send us the details and we will look into it.Quote:
Originally Posted by bookworm
p.s. - Q does oversee the whole operation. But this account is a general account managed by available team members. If you ever want to reach Q, directly send him a message using inbox.
Hello bookworm,Quote:
Originally Posted by bookworm
This problem is now solved. Please login and check. If you still have any issues please don't hesitate to reach out.
Is the site down?
I see it as 'in maintenance'
It was down for weekly maintenance. Now it is up.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB22010Dec
Thank you for the quick turnaround! It works now!Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
I really wish whereismygc provides clarity into the 'how' of the prediction.
When others in the forums are giving out numbers such as 90k people waiting for EAT till 2011 May, paid members do not know who to trust.
Mr.Q can you look into this.
Sure. This is what we do.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB22010Dec
We estimate current backlog as well as future demand by country as well as category. Then we put that into our model. We also estimate various parameters such as denial rates, approval rates and many other things and input them into the model. And then we let the algorithms simulate the way DOS and USCIS would process the queue.
As time goes by new information pops up and we do incorporate such information and adjust our assumption (be it demand or USCIS / DOS operating parameters etc).
The algorithms don't lie. They are biased only to the extent individuals doing the forecast are biased or are limited in their visibility to the data. We remain true to our goal of providing clarity and NEVER EVER engage in building a rosy picture just to get few more customers. We have many instances when people get frustrated and login and logout within minutes when they see reality of how long the wait really is. But we have never ever engaged in making picture look any better than it really is.
This is not a sales pitch. We are just laying out our process and principles - both. Luckily this year there is going to be a very huge number of extra visas available. Many of the backlogged people will benefit tremendously as this is going to cut down their waiting times by years. If they choose to use WhereismyGC, rest assured, we will provide the most realistic assessment of where we believe the chips will fall. We will remain open to new information and will continue to update the model throughout the year.
Hope this helps. Happy to answer further questions.
p.s. - Q is very much active in WhereismyGC. But he wants to ensure that nobody on this blog feels obligated to purchase anything and people can freely use the blog, make predictions and help each other regardless of whether they are or are not customers of WhereismyGC.
Thank you for the detailed explanation.Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
Can you please debate the Eb2 90K 2011 May number.
Also, can you please let me know if the number of people before you in WhereisMyGC includes all dependents.
You are very welcome. The 'people ahead of you' does include ALL dependents too. But we are afraid we can't discuss or comment on either our data or somebody else' data.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB22010Dec
We can't discuss data for 2 reasons: A) it is part of our secret sauce. 2) It can be complicated and time consuming to discuss it with people. Paid members can see how many people are ahead of them in their category and country and their own PD.
When will you update prediction with 265k numbers? I am a paid user
Any user can update the 2021 number and run your own forecast using iForecast.Quote:
Originally Posted by cool_dude
We will update the model on 1st October and will update 2021 number then.