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Typically recently 55% of PERMs are India, another 7% China, 4% Phillippines and 2% Mexico (ball park figures) - total 68% - that leaves 32% ROW. 28% seems lower than even the recent typical numbers.
PERM slowdown is hitting everybody including India applicants - so that shouldn't change the composition of PERM approvals.
Very exciting days are ahead for EB3 folks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by migo79
FY2014 YTD, the % of Certified PERM are:Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
China ---------- 7.10%
India --------- 55.73%
Mexico --------- 2.19%
Philippines ---- 2.51%
ROW ----------- 32.46%
Total -------- 100.00%
The % has remained relatively constant across all quarters of FY2014 to date.
ROW is about 3% higher than the figures for FY2013
China ---------- 6.06%
India --------- 59.46%
Mexico --------- 2.04%
Mexico --------- 2.64%
ROW ----------- 29.80%
Total -------- 100.00%
At the same point in the FY (Q3), FY2013 had 27,850 certifications compared to 47,276 certifications to date in FY2014 (+ 70%).
Hope that helps.
Spec, a dumb question , is there any way to figure out eb3 or eb2 from perm data? is it at the 140 stage or perm step the eb2 or eb3 is determined ? Thanks
krishn,Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
It's not a dumb question at all.
The minimum requirements of the PERM (contained in the DOL LCR system, but not in the OFLC disclosure data) can generally tell you whether the PERM is aimed at an EB2 or not, but it is USCIS who ultimately decide at the I-140 stage on the Category by judging whether the minimum requirements satisfy the EB2 requirements and whether the candidate meets those minimum requirements. If they agree, the I-140 is approved. If they do not agree, the I-140 will be denied.
There is no direct way to split the PERM data into EB2 and EB3.
The PERM data contains the Country of Citizenship, which although not Country of Birth, is close enough for the vast majority of cases. Some people try to use the Wage Level to split the data, but that has serious limitations and I don't recommend it.
The Prevailing Wage data contains the minimum requirements for level of education and experience. It's possible to analyze that data to arrive at a rough EB2:EB3 split, but it is quite laborious to do it properly. Since the Prevailing Wage data does not contain any information about nationality, it isn't possible to directly split the EB3:EB2 % by Country.
With that base data and some assumptions, it's possible to arrive at semi-reasonable estimates of the EB2:EB3 ratio for the various Countries/Groups, although there is obviously an error margin in that exercise. The quality of the result depends on the quality of both the data analysis and the assumptions made.
thanks a lot for the explanation
No movement in dates for EB3I and EB3Row ? thought that EB3Row will move couple of months and eb3I till dec.
its better to port/upgrade to EB2 if any of the EB3 guys are yet to file 485/yet to get EAD.
Stupid me! Every time I do the same thing. Expect something good for EB3 India when in reality nothing happens. I don't think there is going to be any relief for eb3 I in near future. Very frustrating!!Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
Amul,Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
You ask any Guru on this forum ... the answer is unequivocal. EB3I should port to EB2I. The only exception would be people who are within 6-9 month window of the date that is current today for EB3I. Everybody else ... move onto EB2I.
Hi qesehmk,
My PD is 02/17/2004 EB3 India. When do you think my priority date will become current?
Thanks in advance
Krishn - I don't think there was an expectation of movement in EB3ROW this FY. Only category showing promise was EB3P - and that did move forward quite a bit.
EB3I could have had a small movement - but if you see trackitt, there have been several approvals in last few weeks - so it was possible for EB3I to have finished its quota already. So as such there are no surprises in this VB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
If you look at the inventory, Nov-03 to Feb-04 (both ends included) has demand of ~2900. So, just using the regular allocation, you have a very decent shot of getting through in 12+/-2 months from now. 2 months is for various contingencies.
Update: Could be earlier if CO releases EB3I quota early in the year. Although past evidence does not support that,
Quote:
Originally Posted by rajasri
Rajasri,Quote:
Originally Posted by rajasri
Welcome to forum. Nov to Feb is barely 3 months. So you should definitely get it during 2015. The only question is whether it will be after Jun 2015 or can it be Oct-Dec 2014. I really do not know. But if you insist I would admit there is a 50% possibility that EB3I dates might move during Q1 itself to take advantage of the full year quota. See.. this prediction and all works at a macro level. But when it comes to micro level - there are so many unknowns of how USCIS DOS operate as well as variables for individual cases that it is hard to predict at micro level. I know my answer is not what you are looking for. But I hope it helps you at least 5%.
Given the current situation, i.e EB3ROW is not C, there is no question that porting is a sensible idea unless you are only a few months away from EB3I date. However, if EB3ROW shows signs of getting close to C, then FY16 onwards, EB3I *can* get some horizontal spillover, reducing the pressure to port.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Expecting something is not stupid. But it is stupid if you do not even attempt to port to Eb2 when you have an optionQuote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
I was a little surprised that EB3-P moved another 10 months and now has the same COD as EB3-ROW.
That suggests the abandonment rate for EB3-P CP cases could be extremely high. The next NVC report as of November 1, 2014 should give some clue about that. It should have reduced considerably from the 33k reported for EB3-P last year.
It remains to be be seen whether EB3-P can retain the same COD as EB3-ROW when the ROW date moves forward again next FY.
Completely agree Spec. EB3P has been a puzzle for me this year and the only explanation is what you suggest above.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
From 01DEC06 in Sep 2013 to 01APR2011 in Sep 2014 -> 4 Years 4 Months movement in one FY for EB3P. On one hand it is very surprising and aggressive movement - but OTOH, it is following the same trajectory as EB3ROW just a little later. I would imagine EB3ROW/M/P will move together to the EB3ROW high water mark (01OCT2012) at least - and then it might diverge depending upon how much demand materializes. EB3C it seems is seeing some "downgrade porting" demand from EB2C - so it might have a tougher path ahead compared to EB3ROW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
as most of the folks suggested, there was low expectations of any movement to EB3ROW, even the expectations if that happened it would've been just 2 to 3 months to prevent any Visa waste.
Well:
with final bulleting for14 released, I do expect(hoping) that there are no waste in this category :)
next month will be a new story with fresh Visa quota, the inventory is showing ~11000 which mean Q1 quota which i understand it is close to 7100 for ROW will be used to against the backlog
so by next month dates for ROW should move at least a year or maybe even back to OCT12, by Q2 when DOS/USCIS want to build a new inventory the dates will advance at a higher new rate.
IMHO (based on PERM data) i don't expect ROW to generate ~14000 demand beyond OCT12) for the next year so the possibility to become current is quite high, if EB3 ROW reach anywhere 1 year beyond the visa bulletin release month, this will be essentially a "current" state giving the time needed for PERM and I140 approval.
EB3I will likely get a chunk this year but the amount will depend on the demand generated by ROW when they move the dates again beyond OCT12.
Thank you qesehmk,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am assuming that you meant Jan2015 not Jun2015.
Sorry. I did mean Jun 2015. In fact I should've said July 2015. Jul-Aug-Sep i.e. Q4 of a USCIS year is when dates typically move farther. Although for EB3 that may not mean much given the lack of SOFAD for them. But in 2015 if EB3ROW becomes current then EB3I may get lucky.Quote:
Originally Posted by rajasri
Thank you qesehmk.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Sorry for the dumb question, typically for EB3 India does the movement takes place in Q1 or Q4 only and not much in Q2 and Q3?
This year the movement has been throughout year. Next year also I would expect the same. However - as I said if EB3I get lucky then Q4 could present some bonus.Quote:
Originally Posted by rajasri
Spec:
I didn't hear your take on EB3 after the release of the inventory data.
What do you think so far? anything changes? or do you this make sense :)
my calculation seems very favorable but i would definitely like to hear your feedback.
BTW: according to your excellent PERM breakdown as of Q3, it seems that we have 19580 Approved PERM with PD OCT12 to JAN14.
so calculating the 70:30 setup it is 5874 approved EB3 PERM for ROW for this period.
that's why i was saying that i don't expect this number of approved PERMs to generate a demand that can be suffice to use EB3 ROW quota next year.
lots of things in one post i know but it is always good idea to hear your feedback :)
BTW: I calculated the number of PERMS starting JAN08 to OCT12 which is the 5 year advancement EB3ROW did in the this and previous FY and this resulted to 29231 PERM which is well within your earlier predictions of the ~56000 demand EB3ROW generated past FY and this FY.
Thanks
I think EB3-ROW will get fairly close to the number of visas available to them in FY2015.
There might be some FA to EB3-I.
No need to frustration, we already predicted that this will happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
Please see my predictions back in May : http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6298#post46298
Good days are ahead for EB3-I. You will see EB3-I CODs move past the EB2-I CODs in 2 years down the line.
Already I'm suggesting the new EB2-I filers to file it in EB3-I quota instead of EB2-I.
agreed with most of the parts, but i think the amount of FA to EB3I is unpredictable in FY15, it will all depend on the demand that can be generated by these 5874 EB3ROW PERM.
FY16 the situation should be much brighter for EB3I
speaking of Fall across, i was thinking of what happened if Pres. Obama issue an EO to reinterpret the existing visa law and remove derivatives from the numerical limits.
imagine what will happen, EB3I backlog will be cleared in just one year!!!
that will be candy for everyone :)
very simple solution that can help thousands of legal immigrants who love this country.
Let's hope for the best.
Q, senram,YT,Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Thank you very much for your replies. Porting is not an option for me at this point of time due various personal reasons - stable jobs for both myself and spouse,bought a home and kids studies etc... Do not want to disturb the current equilibrium.
YT, I hope your predictions come true as I do not expect that there will be any relief for legal immigrants via Executive order by Obama.
Amul if you haven't already filed 485 then that's understandable. But if you have an are eligible for AC21 then you may want to consider porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
This thread is very interesting. I have a question and not sure who to consult so Im hoping that you guys could give me some guidance of when my priority date will become current.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
My priority date is 12/12/2012 EB3 ROW. I recently got a job and my gc will be re-filed by the new company. I am wondering if it makes sense to move and restart my gc in EB3 again (company wont do EB2 ROW) or should I just stick it out with my current job and think about it next year once the GC comes through. When my GC was filed for first time it literally took over 1 year to get PERM and I-140. I don't want to miss the window for filing I-485 earlier especially when this posts seem to say that EB3 ROW dates can move forward in 1st quarter.
When do you guys feel that December 2012 will become current- first quarter or second quarter. I am truly thankful for gaining so much knowledge from you. Good job guys. For us immigrants, our jobs and travel become such a pain with visa issues.
fresh welcome to the forum. You are in for a good surprise. Since your 140 was approved, your PD is now locked. It means even if you get a new job and restart your GC, your PD will still be 12/12/12. As per when that date will be current... definitely within 1 year I guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by freshoftheboat?
I guess he don't want wanna do that since he want to file I485 and get an EAD/AP and have relief :)
The dates for EB3ROW (based on current data) are expected to move beyond OCT12 probably by Q2, likely in December Bulletin he should be current unless there is a hidden backlog of I485 filers from APR11 to OCT12 which I don't expect since OCT12 remained current for two full months!
Good luck.
Here is my take on the EB3 ROWs Numbers in a one line, Spec and Gurus feel free to scrutinize it:
EB3 new demand past OCT12 PD:
19580 ROW PERM from OCT12 to JAN14 * .3 (EB3 factor) = 5874 - 587 (10% denial rate) = 5287 * 2.2(Dependents) = 11631 (new demand) + 10000 (FY14 carry over) = 21631.
So the predicted demand next year for EB3ROW is well beyond their allotted Visas, we may just need to count EB3 that doesn't go through PERM but i think this number is fairly low to affect the overall picture.
coming to EB3I should potentially benefit from any remaining Visas in FY15, thought as expected won't be very much, but still should be considered reasonable.
Hi migo,Quote:
Originally Posted by migo79
I think what you meant is EB3 Row's demand for FY 2015 will be 'LESS' than it's allotted number( which 28,500 approximately). So EB3 should get at least 5000 to 6000 spillover. If that is true then it is some good news as 2004 is a very dense year for EB3 I and any extra numbers will definitely help.
Thanks
Amul
Amul,Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
I'm not sure whether migo meant more or less either.
EB3-ROW never receives the full calculated allocation of 29.1k (in year where 140k are available to EB).
Both Philippines (and Mexico in the past) can use more than their calculated 7% within EB3 and still stay within the overall 7% limit. That reduces the numbers available to EB3-ROW. EB3-ROW generally suffer if EB3 does not reach its full allocation.
EB3-ROW generally has about 24k available to them.
FY ------- Act. ---- Calc.
FY2013 -- 23,822 -- 32,931
FY2012 -- 23,691 -- 30,148
FY2011 -- 20,744 -- 29,128
FY2010 -- 24,328 -- 31,323
FY2009 -- 26,295 -- 29,128
Thank you very much for all the numbers Spec.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Amul,Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
You're welcome.
I do see some reason for hope for EB3-I, even in FY2015.
The EB3-P COD has accelerated very rapidly, yet it does not seem to have resulted in the sort of demand from CP cases I expected. If that trend continues through later years, then EB3-P could also provide spare visas. I think it is an outside shot though, given the historically very high number of nurses wishing to emigrate from the Philippines. It's possible the apparent low numbers may be caused by processing delays at the Manila Embassy and a lack of interview slots. Alternatively, it may just be abandonment or that the original job offer from the I-140 no longer exists.
I find it reasonable that nursing job offers that were extended several years back no longer exist. There have been anecdotal evidence of a massive increase in number of nursing graduates in last decade in response to the nursing shortage. Seems like as of now there is no shortage - and hence no need to get nurses from Philippines. This report has some concrete numbers: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...hers-find.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks guys,
Sorry for being not clear but i meant that EB3ROW demand will be *less* than the actual supply, however the actual FA will depend on the extent of how many cases from expected 21631 cases will be finalized the by the service center.
at the end not all of them will have the Visa next year, some cases will stuck for extended reviews for example, so the amount of FA will depend on that along how many Visas available to EB3 ROW next year.
EB3I , PD 27Nov2003 and PD 10Dec2003 got GC approval after rfe's earlier this year, will they have to return the cards now that the bulletin did not go that far ? :confused: