EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Kanmani, what do you mean by "continuous employment"? Does it mean you need to be employed without any breaks even if 485 is pending for more than 180 days? Is there a legal document which says this? Also, how much a gap in employment is tolerated by USCIS?

Iatiam

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All,

Just an update. My attorney received an RFE asking for missing photos which, as I mentioned in my original question, were never asked for by the lawyer. The response is out already and should be delivered today. Thanks to everyone for pitching in and sharing their thoughts.

My question now is will the clock be reset for the processing time? If yes, then is there something that can be done to expedite it and if anyone has prior experience that they can share it will be helpful.

Thanks

Very good points. Although, regarding point 3, I imagine downgrading is much easier than upgrading, so it would still make send to file as EB-2I and then downgrade to EB-3I when EB-3I runs ahead of EB-2I.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Interesting data pointers on GC backlogs from this H4EAD final rule document:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-insp...2015-04042.pdf

Look at the Table 3 & 4.

EB3 backlogs are 1/3 of EB2 backlogs (NOT I-485 but I-140)

These data pointers make me to re-iterate these points:
1) Eventually EB3 ROW will become current this year and stay in current for many years to come.
2) EB3-I will surpass the EB2-I PDs triggering EB2-I to EB3-I downgrades in near future.
3) Most importantly those who are filing EB2-I GC petitions today think twice and consider filing it in EB3-I instead.

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It often does not take full three months. Many people have reported (including me) a time of ~60 days. Although there are several examples of it taking almost 90 days as well.

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Originally Posted by vishnu

apologies for asking on this thread, ill delete once a few gurus respond

ead processing time is stated as 3 months

in your experiences, does it take the full 3 months?

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Mass RFE?

I think mass RFE started around last week of May and the dates started moving in June? Do you think they will start issuing mass RFE early this year with the dates moving forward in each bulletin?

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Originally Posted by geterdone

Mass RFE?

I think mass RFE started around last week of May and the dates started moving in June? Do you think they will start issuing mass RFE early this year with the dates moving forward in each bulletin?

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If the dates move earlier, there should not be mass RFE. Since medical RFE is valid for 1 year, most of the folks who did their Medical (again or for the first time) would be under the 1 year expiry mark.

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Originally Posted by raj888

If the dates move earlier, there should not be mass RFE. Since medical RFE is valid for 1 year, most of the folks who did their Medical (again or for the first time) would be under the 1 year expiry mark.

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I was under the impression that many people who applied back in 2012 with 2009 pd did not get any RFE last year.

My impression is otherwise. Many people were delayed - but did get their RFEs for Medical eventually last year.

There might still be RFEs for EVLs.

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Originally Posted by geterdone

I was under the impression that many people who applied back in 2012 with 2009 pd did not get any RFE last year.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

My impression is otherwise. Many people were delayed - but did get their RFEs for Medical eventually last year.

There might still be RFEs for EVLs.

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I can confirm - I was along those who got an RFE. PD July 09, 2009. We delayed sending in our response until October to give us the maximum chance of approval before expiration. If we don't get greened this year (highly likely), we'll have to do the medicals again, and hopefully not delay an approval.

This medical process is beyond ludicrous. So many of us have been in this country for 10+ years. If we had any of the medical ailments they are testing for, we would be dead by now...

The price we pay for being skilled and from India.

Same here. Got the RFE in early July and responded mid-September. My PD is Sep 2009 and it's a waste of time, money and most importantly LCUs to go through the medical RFE multiple times, but it looks like I'll be doing it atleast once more in 2016.

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

I can confirm - I was along those who got an RFE. PD July 09, 2009. We delayed sending in our response until October to give us the maximum chance of approval before expiration. If we don't get greened this year (highly likely), we'll have to do the medicals again, and hopefully not delay an approval.

This medical process is beyond ludicrous. So many of us have been in this country for 10+ years. If we had any of the medical ailments they are testing for, we would be dead by now...

The price we pay for being skilled and from India.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

01-May-2009!!! That sucks man!! So close yet so far.

My impression is that your legal status is AoS - which derives from I-485 - not the EAD/AP. So you are legal in the country - as in you will not accrue unlawful presence.

Not having an EAD affects your ability to work of course. I wonder though whether it only affects your "ability to show that you are eligible to work" and not the actual "ability to work" itself. Spec or Kanmani can throw more light here - but I am mentioning this because in 2013 we renewed our EADs and my wife's employer did not ever ask for new EAD even after the old ones on file were expired. We had to remind them to update the I-9 with new EAD information. Perhaps you continue to be eligible to work as long as your status is AoS irrespective of whether you have a currently valid EAD or not. The purpose of EAD is just to show to employers that you are currently eligible.

I myself never faced the situation because I have continued to be on H1B and have been keeping EAD/AP only as a backup.

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Interesting to know, One of my friend got terminated not even leave of absence as he was not able to provide EAD before expiring, and also for me i got an email from HR to submit updated EAD before expiring date. So, your I-9 form needs validity of your H1 or EAD. Also you can't renew your DL with pending 485( I am not sure on this though, Guru's can confirm).

My renewal took 100+ days to get card in hand. My spouse's took ~70 days. The approval timeline seems to have speeded up significantly over the last month or so and trackitt shows folks getting it in 30-40 days now ... maybe in anticipation of DACA etc.

As always, the advice is to apply ~120 days before EAD/AP expiry.

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Originally Posted by vishnu

apologies for asking on this thread, ill delete once a few gurus respond

ead processing time is stated as 3 months

in your experiences, does it take the full 3 months?

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

Also you can't renew your DL with pending 485( I am not sure on this though, Guru's can confirm).

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I do not know if that is legal but I am pretty sure a lot of states follow that practice. I think it is cruel and sadist.

I also think that - that practice can be challenged in the courts and removed.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I do not know if that is legal but I am pretty sure a lot of states follow that practice. I think it is cruel and sadist.

I also think that - that practice can be challenged in the courts and removed.

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In VA, EAD cannot be used to apply for DL anymore ( thanks to former VA governor Bob McDonnell). Original I485 receipt notice is the only document that can be used by people on AOS only for license application/renewal.

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Originally Posted by gcq

In VA, EAD cannot be used to apply for DL anymore ( thanks to former VA governor Bob McDonnell). Original I485 receipt notice is the only document that can be used by people on AOS only for license application/renewal.

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All these state laws will eventually be contested in court and the laws annulled. The inability to get an DL while on EAD destroys the purpose of the EAD for many. Take the example of someone who has gotten their EAD via DACA or DAPA and needs to drive to work. If the EAD is the only document they have, how are they to get a DL?

In FL State, your DL has to be ednewed every year, even if you have a 2 year EAD. It's just a way for the state to rip you off each year of $50 (+$50 for wife).

It is precisely the reason why some conservative state officials are arguing against EADs being the basis for DLs. As Q said, it is cruel and sadist.

WI used to allow undocumented immigrants to get DLs so they could drive and work. It is no longer allowed so folks who need to get to work essentially need to drive without a license since there is hardly any public transport - and risk being arrested if, for example, they get into a fender bender. The whole idea of DACA/DAPA is to bring people out of the shadows. Unfortunately, some people can not stomach the idea.

PS> Perhaps it would be a good idea for us to get the political leaning discussion out of the main thread. Lets keep the main thread politically neutral.

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

All these state laws will eventually be contested in court and the laws annulled. The inability to get an DL while on EAD destroys the purpose of the EAD for many. Take the example of someone who has gotten their EAD via DACA or DAPA and needs to drive to work. If the EAD is the only document they have, how are they to get a DL?

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I am posting here after a while.

About RFEs, I am a textbook example of someone who received his RFE late (well after the PD was current), responded fast and was a nervous wreck for over a month waiting and waiting. Our GC was eked out end of September, when many EB2I cases were greened. To cut the long story short, expect an RFE. Without your medicals being valid, there is no chance of getting a green card.

Good luck imdeng, kanmani and everyone else. That time of the year is nearing.

Finally, hoorrayyyyyyy to H4EAD! Hats off to everyone who campaigned and pulled this off. No more is the H4 visa a fame to shame.

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

Interesting to know, One of my friend got terminated not even leave of absence as he was not able to provide EAD before expiring, and also for me i got an email from HR to submit updated EAD before expiring date. So, your I-9 form needs validity of your H1 or EAD. Also you can't renew your DL with pending 485( I am not sure on this though, Guru's can confirm).

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How the employer handles the lack of EAD depends on the advice they receive from their law firms. I had a recent situation where somebody on my team did not get a STEM OPT renewal. Law firm was initially arguing for term and I argued for LOA. Finally sense prevailed and lawyers said its upto the org to decide their course of action. The only requirement is that the individual shouldnt be employed. The definition of employed is subject to debate.

Hello Q,gurus,
Any prediction for EB2I date movements in April VB?

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by helooo

Hello Q,gurus,
Any prediction for EB2I date movements in April VB?

Thanks!

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No replies from the gurus, so I will throw out a random non-guru guess. July 1, 2007.

Hi All,

Please move this question to right thread later.

My Sister is on doing her MBA and presently having OTP until end of March 2015.
She applied for H1B last year, April 2014 and is still pending with USCIS.

Her I-94 will get expired by End of March.
Please advise, which is better option for her.

1) Continue to wait until dicision on H1B is made and then,
a) if H1 gets approved - work on H1 (no problem)
b) If H1 gets rejected - can we then apply for H4.

2) Is it better to change to H4 now, rather then wait until decision is made.

My Brother-in-law is having I-140 Approved, So in either cases, she wanted to utilize H4-EAD after May26th.

Thank You
Madhu.

I have known of someone who had her H1 application in the "pending" state for over a year. She felt the approval wasn't happening because the company was very small and USCIS was probably running checks on such companies and her application was put in this "basket" full of such cases. She withdrew and quickly moved to H4.

If the sponsoring company is a small consulting firm, this is probably the case. If so, just switch to H4 and use the new H4-EAD option.

Switching to H4 is easy: with the application, enclose passport photo copies, DL, photocopy of marriage certificate (very important), and the husband's passport photocopies, and a brief letter (half a page: keep it short).

Good luck!

Thank you NBK, Anymore suggestions Please !!

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

I have known of someone who had her H1 approval in the "pending" state for over a year. She felt the approval wasn't happening because the company was very small and USCIS was probably running checks on such companies and her application was put in this "basket" full of such cases. She withdrew and quickly moved to H4.

If the sponsoring company is a small consulting firm, this is probably the case. If so, just switch to H4 and use the new H4-EAD option.

Switching to H4 is easy: with the application, enclose passport photo copies, DL, photocopy of marriage certificate (very important), and the husband's passport photocopies, and a brief letter (half a page: keep it short).

Good luck!

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I agree, better switch to H4 so that you never go "out of status". Now a days consulates look for proof of continuity while you go for visa stamping. Had that experience recently when I went for visa stamping.

You must formally "withdraw" the pending H1 application before "switching" to H4. I am not sure what the process is of withdrawing. You may have to write a letter to USCIS.

Hi NBK,

I think, this information is wrong..
No need to withdraw your pending H1B according to Ron Gotcher.

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

You must formally "withdraw" the pending H1 application before "switching" to H4. I am not sure what the process is of withdrawing. You may have to write a letter to USCIS.

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The April VB has been released http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...pril-2015.html

EB2-I moves to 01SEP07 (8 months)
EB2-C moves to 01APR11 from 01SEP10 (7 months)
EB3-I moves to 08JAN04 (1 week)
EB3-C retrogresses to 01JAN11 from 22OCT11
EB3-WW moves to 01OCT14 (4 months)

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D. VISA AVAILABILITY - CHINA-mainland born

Employment Third Preference: The cut-off date for this category was advanced very rapidly during the past seven months, in an attempt to generate demand to ensure that all numbers under the annual limit could be made available. Item E in the November 2014 Visa Bulletin notified readers that this rapid movement could require "corrective" action as early as February, once demand began to materialize.

Continued heavy demand by applicants with very early priority dates has required a retrogression of this cut-off date for the month of April, to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Potential forward movement of this cut-off date during the remainder of the fiscal year is dependent on the amount of demand received for applicants with very early priority dates.

Employment Fifth Preference: Item D of the February Visa Bulletin advised readers that the expected increase in demand would require the establishment of a cut-off date during the summer to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. The establishment of that date can be expected no later than June.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The April VB has been released http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...pril-2015.html

EB2-I moves to 01SEP07 (8 months)
EB2-C moves to 01APR11 from 01SEP10 (7 months)
EB3-I moves to 08JAN04 (1 week)
EB3-C retrogresses to 01JAN11 from 22OCT11
EB3-WW moves to 01OCT14 (4 months)

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Gurus,

In light of the above, how much are we expecting EB2-I to move ahead in summer? Atleast I was expecting a bigger move...maybe a year or so.

Hi Spectator,

Is there any chance of spillover from Eb3-WW to EB3I in next two three months ?

Thanks

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Originally Posted by almost

Gurus,

In light of the above, how much are we expecting EB2-I to move ahead in summer? Atleast I was expecting a bigger move...maybe a year or so.

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IMHO - Smaller moves are better since it prevents porting and visa number usage. Moderate movement until June/July lends to a bigger move towards the end of the year. Won't be a lot though, but something is better than nothing.

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Originally Posted by civilengineer

No replies from the gurus, so I will throw out a random non-guru guess. July 1, 2007.

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I was too pessimistic by 2 months, I thought it will move 6 months but it moved 8 months. My prediction for May bulletin is April 1, 2008 ( 7 months progress)

The fact that EB2I is moving forward - means that there isn't enough porting demand to consume regular ~300/month quota. EB2I is not consuming any spillover right now - so I guess it's a good thing that it is moving on its own. We should still expect *some* jump sometime in late summer.

Assuming another 8 months in May (01APR08), 8 months in June (01DEC08) - after that depends on whether we have spillover and how much.

The EB2C to EB3C downgrade finally caught up to with EB3C's quota it seems.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The April VB has been released http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...pril-2015.html

EB2-I moves to 01SEP07 (8 months)
EB2-C moves to 01APR11 from 01SEP10 (7 months)
EB3-I moves to 08JAN04 (1 week)
EB3-C retrogresses to 01JAN11 from 22OCT11
EB3-WW moves to 01OCT14 (4 months)

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Originally Posted by imdeng

The fact that EB2I is moving forward - means that there isn't enough porting demand to consume regular ~300/month quota. EB2I is not consuming any spillover right now - so I guess it's a good thing that it is moving on its own. We should still expect *some* jump sometime in late summer.

Assuming another 8 months in May (01APR08), 8 months in June (01DEC08) - after that depends on whether we have spillover and how much.

The EB2C to EB3C downgrade finally caught up to with EB3C's quota it seems.

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You need to consider the fact that increase in demand due to porting is a factor of VB dates.
Prior to Aug 2007 --> almost 0 porting
Aug 2007 to Jun 2008 --> When date will start moving in this range there will be some increase in porting
Jun 2008 to May 2009 --> more increase in porting

I would think the following:
May (01 Mar 2008)
June (01 July 2008)
July (01 Dec 2008)

Aug and Sep will see increase in supply (due to spillover) and demand (due to porting).

My PD is 11/11/2009.

Silly question - but would it make sense to do the medical in June/July in anticipation that I will receive the RFE later this year and it can be submitted quickly?

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Originally Posted by lilstud2007

My PD is 11/11/2009.

Silly question - but would it make sense to do the medical in June/July in anticipation that I will receive the RFE later this year and it can be submitted quickly?

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No. it wont make sense. Please refer to Spec's reply on this few posts earlier..
Suggest you just wait it out. There is no quick way out.

IMDENG,

I have a simple question. PD is Aug 2009 - should I give up hope that I will not get GreenCard in 2014? I ask this because I plan to change jobs, have already filed AC21 once and dread filing another one in a year's time. Not really sure if I should wait this storm out (because of possibility of GC in 2014) or move on like I have done in the past. Your response will keep me from going into some kind of crazy depression and indecision phase.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

The fact that EB2I is moving forward - means that there isn't enough porting demand to consume regular ~300/month quota. EB2I is not consuming any spillover right now - so I guess it's a good thing that it is moving on its own. We should still expect *some* jump sometime in late summer.

Assuming another 8 months in May (01APR08), 8 months in June (01DEC08) - after that depends on whether we have spillover and how much.

The EB2C to EB3C downgrade finally caught up to with EB3C's quota it seems.

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Self - You asked me so I will put my thoughts on paper - although I really have no more information/insight than anyone else here.

I agonized over a career move earlier this year, just like you are doing right now. Finally, I decided to consider GC as just the background process that we have no influence on and leverage EAD to switch jobs. As Q (and I) have been saying to everyone - one should do what is best for one's career without worrying about the GC process. The GC process will sort itself out, in time. There is no point in obsessing about it. I am mildly optimistic for our chances this year (2015, not 2014 :-)) - but I have told myself that I will not be super bummed if it does not happen. Just renew EAD/AP and continue on with rest of life.

If I were you, I would do the job change if it makes sense for your career, irrespective of the GC process. Most of us have lived/worked in the country for 10+ years. We have skill, experience, network, etc to hopefully take care of whatever curve ball gets thrown our way. We feel ourselves to be helpless against the GC process - but I tell myself that we are not - we should keep our noses clean, get our job done and follow the best career opportunities - and let the GC drama play itself out.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

IMDENG,

I have a simple question. PD is Aug 2009 - should I give up hope that I will not get GreenCard in 2014? I ask this because I plan to change jobs, have already filed AC21 once and dread filing another one in a year's time. Not really sure if I should wait this storm out (because of possibility of GC in 2014) or move on like I have done in the past. Your response will keep me from going into some kind of crazy depression and indecision phase.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

IMDENG,

I have a simple question. PD is Aug 2009 - should I give up hope that I will not get GreenCard in 2014? I ask this because I plan to change jobs, have already filed AC21 once and dread filing another one in a year's time. Not really sure if I should wait this storm out (because of possibility of GC in 2014) or move on like I have done in the past. Your response will keep me from going into some kind of crazy depression and indecision phase.

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Q, imdeng, and many others have always said "put your career ahead of the GC".

I changed jobs on EAD. I got my GC last year.

Opportunities don't come along often. The earlier you move, the better it is for your career.

Your PD should be current this year, and you should get an RFE for the EVL anyway. Just send your new job papers at that time. There is no empirical evidence that being at the current job gives you GC any faster. From all anecdotal evidence, the IOs are probably assuming jobs have changed (or at the very least responsibilities have changed) for long pending 485s. They will review your EVL afresh. That's my impression.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

IMDENG,

I have a simple question. PD is Aug 2009 - should I give up hope that I will not get GreenCard in 2014? I ask this because I plan to change jobs, have already filed AC21 once and dread filing another one in a year's time. Not really sure if I should wait this storm out (because of possibility of GC in 2014) or move on like I have done in the past. Your response will keep me from going into some kind of crazy depression and indecision phase.

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Self Coach,

I agree (partially) with Deng and Sportsfan. My PD is close to yours and there was a time during November 2011 that I had a "moment" and decided to look for jobs. I hadn't filed for 485 yet, but was really frustrated at work. This was a time when dates were moving, but no one could fathom that it would go as much as 2010. I did get a few offers, but nothing to my satisfaction. So I decided to stay put. Thankfully, within a few months my PD became current and I switched jobs after 180 days. There was more flexibility and more freedom and of course less risk.

I changed jobs again after 7 months because I hated the new job from day 1 onwards. Used AC21 both times. I have also met people who have changed jobs several times. Many 2007 fiasco EB3 filers have changed jobs multiple times.

Of course I haven't got my GC yet, so I can't tell what it entails to have changed jobs when 485 is pending. I am guessing EVL is a fairly common RFE, though my attorney says many times they don't ask for it especially if you have filed AC21.

So as long as your are changing jobs 180 days after filing 485, you should be OK.

Good luck to You, Deng and me and several others who are eagerly waiting for SO season

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Self Coach,

I agree (partially) with Deng and Sportsfan. My PD is close to yours and there was a time during November 2011 that I had a "moment" and decided to look for jobs. I hadn't filed for 485 yet, but was really frustrated at work. This was a time when dates were moving, but no one could fathom that it would go as much as 2010. I did get a few offers, but nothing to my satisfaction. So I decided to stay put. Thankfully, within a few months my PD became current and I switched jobs after 180 days. There was more flexibility and more freedom and of course less risk.

I changed jobs again after 7 months because I hated the new job from day 1 onwards. Used AC21 both times. I have also met people who have changed jobs several times. Many 2007 fiasco EB3 filers have changed jobs multiple times.

Of course I haven't got my GC yet, so I can't tell what it entails to have changed jobs when 485 is pending. I am guessing EVL is a fairly common RFE, though my attorney says many times they don't ask for it especially if you have filed AC21.

So as long as your are changing jobs 180 days after filing 485, you should be OK.

Good luck to You, Deng and me and several others who are eagerly waiting for SO season

Iatiam

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Thanks guys. Very valuable advice. I was not aware that multiple AC21s do not affect the GC file. Btw IMDENG I am now realizing it is 2015 already....I was hoping for the GC in 2014!