Jan2013 Demand Data Updated
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
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Jan2013 Demand Data Updated
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Interesting numbers for 2007 & 2008 PDs there is quite a difference between DD(Jan2013) and USCIS Inventory(OCT 2012).
PD-------Jan 2103DD----Oct2012 USCIS INV-------Difference
2007---------5400-------------5142---------------------+258
2008--------16325-----------15897---------------------+428
Numbers are being added each month even though PDs with those dates are not current from June 2012. Looks like USCIS is processing porting cases filed after June2012 even though those PDs are not current so once I-140 is approved and USCIS is notified about Interfiling, if there is a 485 attached already then it is processed and added to EB2 DD irrespective of PD being current or not. I think this is what is going on at present with porting cases(ported after June2012) whose PDs are not current. If this is the case then by the time CO starts applying SO all porting cases should show up in DD.
its almost certain, by Oct 2013, EB2 moves to Jun 1,2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
this year CTS is not filing for GC aggressively , last year it filed 2000 perms/ this year sofor 100+
I think that is just continued pre-adjudication of the EB2 cases that were submitted when the dates were last Current.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
Otherwise, you would also expect to see substantial movement of the 2004 - 2006 figures as well. They are static (well movement of 50).
That might be true as people with EB3I PDs from Sept2007 have never filed a 485 in EB3. We will know more with future Inventory,DD reports if there is a substantial increase in numbers for PDs prior to Aug2007 then we will know if USCIS is processing porting cases or not for PDs which are not current.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Not sure how you arrived at that conclusion. It looks we need 9.5k to clear 2007 and possibly more for additional porting. 2008 demand density appears to be over 1.5k per month. To get to June end we would need atleast an addln 9k visas. That appears to be a long shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
I'm not saying you are wrong but just curious about your assumptions.
Looking at the latest DD and few things confuse me. May be the gurus can shed some light.
1. how is it that the number of 2007 and 2008 EB2 I numbers are greater than the ones in the inventory. Does this mean that USCIS is so inefficient that they have not yet added all applications to their inventory. that really is bad as they had dates U for 4 months.
2. For Eb2 I - If you look at the inventory there are 219 apps between sept 1 2004 and Jan 1 2005. So the demand before sept 1 2004 looks to be around 50. Is that right ? if thats correct date should move atleast by some months.
Am I saying anything thats incorrect
Suggestions inline.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Q/Spec,
Why porting is in so much limelight that it has stalled the forward movement of EB2 I? Porting is happening from the past 3-4 yrs and you had earlier mentioned it's range is in 5-6K per yr.
Would also appreciate if you can share your thoughts on latest DD.
Thanks for your reply. If it should be 0 before sept 2004 then for ROW it should be 0 since its current right? why are they showing demand. does that mean they are going to have a cutoff? also demand will not be 0 right - if an interlinking for pre sept 2004 app is done on say nov 20th then I think it takes about 1-2 months for USCIS to close the case. So that demand will be reflected right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
yank,Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
I think that is because, with much lower Spillover expected, Porting numbers potentially represent a much higher % of the likely available visas. They therefore have a much greater potential impact on Cut Off Date movement for the FY. In addition, there doesn't appear to be any QSP this year.
The last time that happened (FY2011), EB2-I Cut Off Dates did not move in the first 8 months of the FY
With no figures ever published, it is impossible to say whether the number is decreasing, fairly static or increasing relative to past years.
I think I have already commented on the DD.
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
For CP cases, the visas are allocated based on requests from Consulates before the interview takes place.
Countries other than China an India only show a total demand of 175 visas, which is entirely consistent with CP cases awaiting interview.
As you said, you need 18K visas to achieve this date,with present trend you may get 8K spillover from EB1+2k regular EB2I (assume 800 were already used this year)Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
EB2 ROW +EB4 spillover=5k. So overall you may get close to 15k visas to EB2I, which pushes dates somewhere between Mar to Jun 1,2008.
The demand data shows why EB3-P is stuck. And why EB3-C is close to catching up with ROW. Frankly they should be cobbled together. Not sure why they haven't moved the EB3-ROW/C to 2008.
justvisiting,Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
I've been thinking about when CO might move the EB3 dates as well.
Compared to EB2-IC, I think it is a much more difficult task.
EB2-IC had 98-99% AOS cases, so the effect of CP cases was negligible. That's not the case with EB3. In FY2011, ROW had around 20% CP and China had a whopping, 51%.
Whereas it might take 3-6 months for new I-485 cases to be ready to adjudicate, a CP case can be approved in 1-2 months. Ron Gotcher says that the interview in a CP case normally takes place in the month following the PD becoming Current.
If CO moves the dates forward rapidly, then a large number of late PDs with CP will be approved at the expense of earlier AOS PDs.
So maybe he has to move the dates fairly cautiously over a few months initially, just enough to ensure that the full FY allocation is used and allowing sufficient time for the AOS cases to be adjudicated. He could then make a very large movement (to get a good future Inventory) in September, before retrogressing in October.
It appears that the present backlog for China, Mexico and ROW will be exhausted in about May/June/July, so he will have to think about moving the dates. I don't think he can leave it any later than about March/April at the latest, if he wants AOS cases ready for approval beyond July. It could well be (and need to be) somewhat earlier than that.
The next few Demand Data and VB will answer the question.
So could you please tell when I could expect to file my I-485? EB3 ROW PD July 15 2007. Is April 2013 a realistic date? I missed the July boat.
Thanks!
Caramail,Quote:
Originally Posted by Caramail
Welcome to the forum.
I don't pretend to have a good handle on how EB3-ROW will move, but I would be disappointed if your PD had not become Current by the April VB.
Thank you!!! I feel like I am really close now after waiting for so long.
Caramail,Quote:
Originally Posted by Caramail
I'm sure.
Good luck!
If it follows the same pattern as EB2 China and India, then there are quite a few people with May 2007 onwards PDs who were unable to apply for I-485 in July 2007 because the Labor Certification was not received in time.
Let the forum know when you have finally submitted your I-485.
Thanks and I will.
Some good analysis... I am fairly new to this whole analysis... I have an EB2-I PD of Sept 12, 2007. Any insight into when I can expect it to be current?
Aug 2013 at the latestQuote:
Originally Posted by mayde78
Spec,
I was looking at EB2 I approvals on trackitt and there seems to be a marked decrease in november and december as compared with october. October as you pointed out had 40 approvals. Nov had 10 and december is also trending the same.
Based on that can we assume that the initial bump that was caused because of the dates being U is now over and what we are seeing now is the regular demand we would see? Going forward if we see the same trends can we hope for some movement starting from the 3rd quarter.
It certainly appears that most of the pre September 2004 cases that built up when EB2-I was Unavailable have now been cleared.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I need a little longer to judge what the ongoing monthly rate is. Since the dates are not moving, it could be around the 250 available each month.
The potential problem is that, when the COD is able to move forward, there will be large numbers of Sept-Dec 2004, 2005 and 2006 porting cases that have built up in the meantime.
By the time the dates move, about a year's worth of these later PD porting cases will have built up, amounting to several thousand cases in all probability.
That is going to limit the forward movement, unless CO is very confident there are sufficient numbers available to EB2-I.
Given what happened last year (e.g. EB1 was very heavy late on), I don't see how he can be that confident when he initially moves the dates.
Since USCIS are not providing any information on potential porting numbers to DOS, I think CO will want to "test the waters" to see the numbers for himself.
Spec,
I think that the demand could be lower than the 250 but the dates are no moving cause USCIS has approved more applications than the quarterly qouta cause of the dates being U and the flood of apps in Oct. Now I guess in the next quarter also they will not move the dates so that they remain within the qouta for 6 months. I think though they will have to move the dates at some point after April so as to as you say "test the waters" otherwise they will be accumulating demand for 2005 onwards. I think they will start moving the dates by 1-2 months post april for that reason.
I agree it is possible that monthly demand from pre Sept 2004 could be less than 250 / month for exactly the reasons you stated. Because of the high numbers of approvals in October, the numbers are "ahead of the curve".Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
That is why I want to wait until making a decision. There is a processing time for these cases and new cases may not yet be reflected. Also, the number approved appears to already be ahead of the notional 757 available in Q1.
Team,
Based on December 2012 bulletin qesehmk, veni had updated the Predictions on the first page. Can you also once again provide revised predictions based on Jan Bulletin and demand data.
Also can your comment on your estimate of any ballpark figure on porting per month/per year will help forum.
I am on Company A holding my H1, Company B (i was never with this company) has sponsored Green Card on future employment on EB2 and my dates became current and got my EAD. Got RFE on 485 and company A mentioned to me no need to worry we have a position for you here itself and we already applied a GC PERM for you (with similar job title , duties , roles & responsiblities with updated prewailing wage determination) and new I140 was applied and the old EB2 date (Company B I40 Priority date Mar 2010) was ported in Aug 2012 (new company A I-140 was cleared) and the RFE was answered.
RFE content
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The petitioner on your form I-140 , filed on May 2010 is Company B located in state XX. However, on your form G-325 Biographic information form you stated you have been working with Company A from April 2009 to the present. Finally both your forms G-325 and Form I-485 show that you live in state YY.
Please address the discrepancy between employers and addresses and please also submit a currently dated letter from your intended permanent employer, describing your present job duties and position in the organization, your proffered position (if different from your current one), the date you began employement and the offered salary or wage. This letter should be in the original and signed by an executive or officer of the organization who is authorized to make or confirm an offer of permanent employment. The letter must also indicate whether the terms and conditions of your employment-based visa petition (or labor certification) continue to exist.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My question is it possible if i invoke AC21 and goto Company C, Is it possible to join company C on EAD, what are the risks and challenges and what should be the job title, duties, roles and responsibilities. Can anyone have share their knowledge?
Please move it to appropriate thread.
I am new in this forum, but seeing very interesting analysis, would like to know what you said Mar to June 2008, my PD is june 2008 EB2, i got my I-485 , but wondering when i can expect GC.
what your analysis said, regarding to this.
March272010,
I am 90% confident that you couldve invoked AC21 and continued with Employer A AND even today you invoke AC21 and join C D E F.
The reason I am not 100% confident - is I am not 100% sure that AC21 applies in situation where you are NOT currently working for thesame employer that sponsored your GC. Somebody like Kanmani on this fourm might be able to better answer such question. You may want to ping Kanmani.
Good luck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by march272010
Ashoka / Mayde - welcome to the forum. The header is always updated. Pl check header for general guidance on the dates movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by ashokapex
The rough estimates are based on Trackitt data except for EB4 and EB5.
27% of the 140k visas may be issued in Q1. That is 37.8k.
Cat ------- k
EB1 ------ 8.3
EB2-All - 15.3EB2-C ---- 0.75
EB2-I ---- 1.25
EB2-WW -- 13.30
EB3 ------ 9.6
EB4 ------ 2.7
EB5 ------ 2.7
Total --- 38.6
38.6k = 102% of the number of visas available, so it is in the correct ballpark.
Other little "factoids" from the Trackitt data.
- 67% of EB1-I approvals are for EB1C.
- 21% of EB2-ROW approvals are for EB2-NIW.
- 9% of EB2-ROW approvals are pre 2010 PD and are probably porting (none in NIW). That rises to 13% if PD2010 was included.
- 9% of EB2-ROW approvals have Indian Nationality, but ROW Chargeability (none in NIW).
Since the data source is Trackitt, please view the figures accordingly. It has limitations.
For instance, there is very little data in EB1 for Countries other than India. EB1-I approvals accounted for 88% of all approvals on Trackitt, which is not in line with actual approvals in EB1.
Even with the limitations, I thought I would share.
Spec this is interesting - I never noticed this!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Glad you found it interesting.
As you might expect, most are from the Gulf States, Kuwait in particular, UAE, Saudi Arabia which historically have had a large Indian working population. Iran also crops up more than I would have thought.
So do u think eb2ww will have a cutoff? Since they have approved 13000 instead of 5100Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I'm not sure how you calculate your figures.
EB2-WW yearly allocation is 40,040 - 5,606 = 34,434
27% of that is 9,296.
Q1 includes up to 3 months worth of EB2-WW cases that could not be approved in July-Sept 2012 due to retrogression. It was expected to be high.
CO said retrogression of EB2-WW might be possible late in FY2013, but that would only theoretically happen if they exceeded 34.4k plus any spillover from EB1. That seems unlikely, but it is not impossible. Your guess is as good as mine.
Since no new I-485 could be submitted with fairly recent PD in July-Sept 2012, a large number were probably only received by USCIS in October. Depending on how long USCIS take to process them, there could be a lull in EB2-WW approvals, before a further large number of approvals at a later time. This makes the predictions even harder.
For reference, I think the corresponding number of approvals in FY2012 Q1 for EB2-WW was about 7k.
Experts:
Please check this NY Times article
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/us...email1=y&_r=1&
Please comment how exhaustion of EB5 quota will impact spillover and the projected movement of dates.
Thanks
honesdirec,Quote:
Originally Posted by honesdirec
Thanks for the article. Jay Peak is one of the highest profile EB5 projects.
It has already been discussed, at least in part.
The figures released by DOS to IIUSA gave a figure of 7,641 EB5 visas issued in FY2012.
CO warned in the December 2012 VB that a Cut Off Date for EB5-C is likely in FY2013.
I think the general consensus is that EB5 will not provide any spillover in FY2013.
With EB5 providing no SO the only hope now is EB1. Hopefully that provides some extra numbers. Is there any hope from EB4 ? That also has a yearly quota of 10000. With such low numbers and high demand its no surprise that CO predicted the best case to be 2007. I dont think it will even reach 2006
sbhagwat2000,
The latest thoughts by various people are always available on Page 1 of this thread.
I am sure they will all be updated in due course.