What a nice Surprise Teddy! Good to hear from u.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
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What a nice Surprise Teddy! Good to hear from u.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Q,
I think you have high level answered this already - but let us say in a scenario, we get June 2009 current and then we get retrogressed back to a date in 2008 within 2 months of that. What is the processing time for those that had temporarily become current in that 2-3 month time period?
On the USCIS website for processing, they tout that I-485 adjustment of status is 4 months - would it be a luck of draw on which cases with June 2009 PD become green based on factors like ND and RD, etc? And how long after the retrogression will they keep working on cases that had previously become current? For example, would a June 2009 case hear about being green in lets say January 2015?
I ask this shamelessly, because I am on the borderline of all your predictions and this thing is giving me grey hair.
There are threads for both:
FY2014 RFE
and
I-693 Medical Examination Policy Change
discussions.
Please post in the appropriate thread if your post is not Calculation related.
billi - first please understand my prediction can be wrong. What I am saying is i think even if date moves to Jun or Jul people beyond Mar have much less chance of getting a GC immediately. Lets say I am 100% correct in my prediction and there is somebody in April who is current but not lucky enough to get a GC this year - what happens to him?Quote:
Originally Posted by billikoot
I think what's going to happen is come oct and nov these people will get their GCs. Why? Because for CO to even figure out when to retrogress dates he needs data. When does data start to flow to him ? Only in mid or late october. Too bad ... by that time he has already not moved the dates. So I will say there is a good chance he might give away upto 3K visas for EB2I in Oct and Nov itself because the dates will still be current. And then he retrogresses in December.
So again assuming I am 100% on Mark on March ... then do the math and see how far those 3K will take dates for EB2I. Probably 2 months.
Hope this helps! I know you are looking for June. So I hope I am wrong and/or you get lucky!
Q,
I have a doubt.
Do you think the approvals would be batch after batch, just like DoS moved dates, so that the 3rd batch might stumble near March 2009, if in case the CoD for September is assumed to be in July'09 ?
In theory its a free for all i.e. no FIFO in terms of approvals but reality is there is place for only so many files on one person's desk. So he/she likely would have to approve (or deny) someone who got current earlier than later.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
The way this is going to work is USCIS is going to start requesting visa numbers for cases that are current and adjudicated. So DOS really has no control in terms of prioritization. They don't prioritize. DoS only allocates visa. That's is why CO and his office is so careful in moving dates. They don't want people with earlier PDs left out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
However if date is current and USCIS requests visa then DOs can't refuse unless DOS runs out of visas.
So in September assuming dates move wild .... lets see Oct 2009. Then whatever visas will be left - DOS will simply allocate in the same sequence of request by USCIS. USCIS will most likely request visas not in the order of PDs but in the order of receipt date as long as the case is adjudicated and current. That is why we see some people with newer PDs getting GCs faster than others.
That's my understanding Kanmani.
That is my understanding too Q .
So can we call the net approvals in this FY would be up to March'09, because the left outs will be all over say, from feb' 09 to june - oct'09. Why I think so, because, the slow pace approvals from USCIS might push all the three batches into one pool starting from September, so that the outcome will totally depend upon the efficient adjudicators out of the hundreds spread across, who are not sleeping with RFE response inside their table drawers.
Guys be ready to raise SR.
Yes March 09 is where I would put the date at. Anything beyond that would be lucky to get through this year. I would say the rule is 80-20 or 90-10. 80-90% before that date should see approvals and 10-20% shouldn't. The reverse is true for people after that date.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Hey Teddy - Nice so see you again - stay around - you are sorely missed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Thats some astute observation Kanmani. Lets add ~6850 from Jan 22nd - how far does that take us? Based on Inventory, I am landing around 15-July-2009. Ouch - that hurts!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thank you for your quick reply. Is it better to send the AC-21 doc now or wait till the end of the month and send the docs when I start working at the new company? My attorney is saying to send the letter as soon as possible.
Have you seen any instances where USCIS has rejected AC-21 application?
Thanks and appreciate your help.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
There is no AC21 application and you really don't even have to notify. In fact, if you want to notify the USCIS, I'd still hold off till dates retrogress. Otherwise it'll just be another document that will delay the application.Quote:
Originally Posted by MeraGC1
Its been a little quiet here - so just thinking aloud based on my browsing on Spec's impeccably maintained PERM and Trackitt data. Unless something changes drastically, EB2I is going to get hammered in future. 2008 and 2009 PDs were comparatively light years, we have had the benefit of slowdown in ROW demand - and still we are barely keeping pace. Compared to 2008/2009, EB2I demand in 2010, 2011, 2012 is 2X. For example - Number of EB2I PERMs in 2009: 16.7K, in 2012: 36.2K. It will take two good years to pass 2012. Folks in 2013 PD onwards will perhaps have to wait 8-10 years. Wow! Such a depressing thought.
Here's to immigration reform in 2017!Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
My PD is March 2010, any luck next Sept 2015 or will it be 2016?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
All I can say is that it is possible in FY2015 - but far from certain. The probability will increase the further we go into 2009 in next couple months. Luckily for you, the demand for EB2I is comparatively weak in the months preceding your PD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
The current numbers suggest that demand up to March 2009 will be cleared (even though later dates might be current). There might be some before and some after that get approved but more or less March 2009. Beyond that there are about 15K cases in inventory (not including porting and potential first time filers in this spillover season). Depending on spillover next year, there might be a better than average chance that March 2010 will be current although cannot guarantee that cases will be approved till then. Also, it is unlikely that first time filers will get approved but atleast they will be able to file and get EAD.
The biggest headwind is the slow PERM processing this year will push the EB2ROW demand in to next year. Plus with EB1-C grabbing tons of visas, and EB5 pretty much using their quota spillover might be lower than this year. The variable is FB overflow. We won't get a clear picture of that until Oct-Dec or so of this year.
I think the chances will probably be most influenced by the number of unused FB visas EB receives in FY2015.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
If that is low, then in conjunction with an expected increase in ROW approvals in FY2015, then the number of visas available to EB2-I might make that quite difficult.
Like Q, I don't think how far the dates move will influence the equation much - a further movement in FY2014 will just push more numbers into FY2015. Where the COD lands doesn't change the underlying numbers.
Assuming available FB numbers are low for FY2015, I don't expect EB2-I to move into 2010 in FY2015, but that's a long way away and much can change (and it always seems to).
Even a modest number of FB numbers can make quite a difference, so we really need to wait to see what those numbers are before speculating too much.
Spec,
When will we know the FB numbers?
Also, I believe where the COD lands will have an impact on the underlying numbers. The farther it lands means the more the spillover visas they have to distribute before the year ends.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
vedu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
The report that gave the FB numbers was created on January 15, 2014, but was only published on March 31, 2014 last time. The Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf document was created at the end of October 2013, but I don't remember when it was actually published. That showed the rough number of FB visas EB had received.
I think we can just disagree about the COD, at least at the macro scale.
There is only a relatively narrow range that the COD could be set at that would cover SO available to EB2-I in FY2014 plus a contingency to ensure visas are not wasted (perhaps a span of 3 months at most).
Beyond that, it becomes a function of the demand that is actually generated by USCIS, rather than the actual number of cases there are. That could be affected by either slow response to RFE by applicants, delay in sending RFE requests, or slow processing of RFE responses by the Service Centers. That might necessitate moving the COD further than otherwise, but it would not reflect that all cases within the COD could be approved. The further the COD moves for that reason, the more cases will fall into FY2015, when they will eventually reflect as demand. In Q's language, it would be a non-sustainable movement.
For instance, a movement to cover all October 2009 EB2-I cases cannot be sustained because it is physically impossible for there to be that much SOFAD available to EB2-I in FY2014 (unless you believe it is possible for EB2-I to receive at least 30k visas this year and for EB1, EB2-WW, EB4 and EB5 to contribute at least 27k spare visas between them.)
Spec,
Thanks for explaining your thoughts on this. Anyways, there is only one month left in this year and we shouldn't expect any miracles now. I just hope there is at least one year net movement this year from the last year. That's too looking difficult.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Sharing the predication by MATT from Trackitt
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...sharing#gid=11
MATT's Calculation of EB2-I Movement FY 2014 *
Conservative Realistic Optimistic Going Crazy!!
Priority Date * 22nd Jan, 2009 22nd Mar,2009 1st Jul ,2009 1st Nov, 2009
Demand DD/Inventory 13900 16700 20500 24750
Porting FY2014( From Dec 2013) 3000 3000 2750 2500
FY2014 Left Over(Carry forward to FY2015) -3500 -3750 -4000 -5500
Visas Required( in last quarter to reach the priority date) 13400 15950 19250 21750
EB1 Usage 41500 40500 39500 39500
EB2 WW (ROW+M+P) usage 25000 24000 23500 23000
EB3 usage 42900 42900 42900 42900
EB4 usage 7000 6750 6500 6500
EB5 usage 10100 10000 9750 9500
EB2 China usage 3500 3400 3300 3100
Total Other Category Demand 130000 127550 125450 124500
FY2014 Total EB Visas(All categories) 150000 150000 150000 150000
EB2****isas (FY2014) Quota +SO 20000 22450 25550 27500
EB2 Consumption(FY2014 October -June) -7000 -6750 -6500 -6000
Expected SO (FY2014 Last Quarter) 13000 15700 18050 19500
Over Allocation 1000 2000
* Use only at your own discretion, all dates and numbers calculated with limited data set. The priority dates movement may or may not happen.
For folks looking for a little bit of optimism (the group includes me, so caution for wishful thinking here) - EB2ROW approvals have slowed to a trickle as USCIS deals with the workload of EB2I RFEs, RFE Responses and approvals. If these trends persist then we can get a higher than usual horizontal spillover this year. Of course, this will revert next year - but that is next year.
The average multiple for trackitt approvals to actual approvals for EB2ROW past three years has been ~50. So far Spec has counted 301 EB2ROW approvals. Assuming that in the couple months left, this number is between 350 to 400, actual EB2ROW approvals will range from 17,500 to 20,000. Adding 4,000 for C/M/P to this, we get EB2-ROW/C/M/P at 21,500 to 24,000. As EB2 allocation this year is 42,900, we get horizontal spillover to EB2I at 18,900 to 21,400. That's a pretty significant number.
Even assuming no vertical spillover (EB1 seems to be going gangbusters), adding the usual 3,000 allocation, we get total SOFAD for EB2I at 21,900 to 24,400. If we are lucky and see, say, ~2,500 vertical spillover from EB2I, then the upper bound for EB2I approaches 27K. Add a bit for contingency that not everyone who becomes current will be approved and I guess that will take dates to 01-NOV-2009 in next VB.
Exercise in wishful thinking is now over. :-)
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Not so much wishful thinking, although I think you may have double counted and underestimated here and there.
Here's my comments.
I agree about EB2-ROW. I have been using a figure within your range for some time.
It seems likely that EB2-C will use more than 3k alone, so a figure of 4k which also includes M&P is very low IMO. I think a figure of 6k for C/M/P is a more realistic low end figure.
In calculating horizontal SO, you have not deducted the 3k that EB2-I will use, then you add it to the calculation later as well.
I think you are possibly being a little pessimistic about Vertical SO. EB4 alone should provide more than that.
Anyway, you definitely need to lower your figure by 3k since that is currently being double counted.
That would give a figure of 24k, which I do not think is unreasonable.
That makes sense Spec. Thanks for your comments. I was just thinking aloud - I guess we will know the end game for the FY pretty soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Keep thinking aloud. I do value other people's thoughts and enjoy reading them.
Although I would reach the figure differently, I don't believe 24k is an unreasonable expectation. As you say, EB1 is the difficult one to gauge true numbers for.
Spec and Others,
If we get 24K in FY 2014. The demand data at beginning of FY2014 showed about 30K EB2I.
So if at the end of FY2014, we have 6 or 8K pending EB2I, will CO think of building up applications.
I know this may not happen and going by past intake of applications experience, CO may advance dates only in Next FY (2015) if he sees spillover more than what he has in demand data.
But just wondering if there is any chance at all?
(MY PD is Dec 2010).
Thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Hello Gurus,
If we get early walk in finger print,will that make any difference to the process?Do you think we should go for early FP? Anybody knows what days are slow so we can walk in?
Thanks
skpanda,Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
I am not that hopeful.
The USCIS Inventory showed a figure of 31.2k as at April 1, 2014, by which time a large number of visas had already been allocated from the prospective FY2014 number. The number still left to be allocated for the rest of FY2014 would therefore be quite a bit less than 24k.
In addition, there would be new applications that will be submitted as the dates progress and further porting cases that become ready to adjudicate under EB2-I. Those may only be adjudicated in FY2015.
I would see a figure far higher than the 6-8k you mention still pending going into FY2015 plus a further number of cases to be added to that figure during FY2015. I also see relatively less spillover being available to EB2-I in FY2015, hence I believe the next Inventory buildup will not occur until FY2016, barring some significant unknown change. There is an outside possibility of the forward movement starting in Q4, FY2015, depending on the number of cases left at that time. It depends on how much SO is available to EB2-I in FY2015.
Movement in FY2014 is impossible IMO.
Need suggestion:
My PD is Mar 15,2010. I am sure i may get current in 2015. I had changed my job on sep,2013. And yet to change my lawyer.My earlier lawyer bound to employer he wont continue my GC process any more.
Can you please suggest reasonably good lawyer to continue GC process. I had no RFE's so for. Its straight forward case. I got my spouse as a dependant.I was thinking of going with an attorney who is not bound to my employer , so that i can continue with him in case if i change my job.
Please move this to appropriate thread.
Hi folks,
I've been a silent reader for this great forum that is really helping to understand the GC process.
My Perm recently got approved and my PD is 05Dec13 EB3 ROW, I've read that the EB3 ROW has some good future next year, I'd like your to get your expert opinion on when the PD will be current?
Thank you so much in advance.
See this thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by kikoz9
I'll move your post there later and delete this one.
Thanks Sportsfan33, Hope you get your GC asap.As you said i will file G28 and will think about attorney little later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
When the next inventory buildup happens possibly in CY 2015, will DOS move only up to a date where visa can be assigned in 1 year and not let the medicals expire?
I-693 Medical examination report has been excluded from the initial evidence documents checklist of I-485. It can be submitted whenever it is required, at the convenience of cut of date movement of respective countries.Quote:
Originally Posted by bluelabel
Applicants from retrogressed countries may skip filing and wait for medical report RFE, when the adjudicator sends one in anticipation of visa number.
The way I see it, the movement is definitely not going to be like the one in 2012. It is going to be more calculated since moving the dates even by 6 months generates a good inventory. Unless something else (election year, politics etc) drives it, they have no technical reason to just move dates very aggressively. That is my thought process anyways. May be someone more knowledgeable can chip in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluelabel
HI
i have been a silent reader of this forum and learned a lot about GC processing. my pd is 12/15/09 ( eb2 india ) , is there is a chance of becoming current early next year? How many visa numbers required for eb2 india to progress from march 09 ( as per Guru's prediction for current year i.e fyi 2014) till End of 2009?
Thanks
It should be current next summer. By my estimates probably need another 12k visas till dec 2009 .. so approx 9k spillover (assuming everything is cleared up to mar 2009).Quote:
Originally Posted by kumar777
From all the discussions the Gurus have done and calculations, all I understood is that you will definitely become current before October 2015. I am not sure what you had in mind when you said "early next year"...
Quote:
Originally Posted by kumar777